STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NFL STAT/SHEETS
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 4th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** National Football League Information - Week #1 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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NFL Betting News And Notes - Week #1
The biggest story among the National Football League cuts on Saturday was the Rams releasing defensive end Michael Sam. The biggest name among the cuts, from a football standpoint, was cornerback Champ Bailey. Going to New Orleans was supposed to be the last chapter in Bailey’s great career. He never got to write a page in that chapter. The Saints decided to eat the $500,000 signing bonus they invested in Bailey this offseason and cut the longtime Broncos and Redskins defensive back.
Bailey is a 12-time Pro Bowler, but has lost a step or two at age 36. He struggled for the Broncos in last season’s Super Bowl loss to Seattle. He played in just five games in 2013 because of injuries. There are a lot of teams in the National Football League who could use help at cornerback, but it will be interesting to see if any take a shot on Bailey, a likely Hall of Famer. Here were the rest of the biggest stories from around the league as teams cut their rosters down to 53 players:
•New York Jets: They admitted a massive mistake in their final cuts, dumping receiver Stephen Hill, the 43rd pick of the draft two years ago. Hill looked the part, at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, but had just 45 catches for 594 yards and four touchdowns in two years. Receiver Alshon Jeffery, selected two picks later, has become a star with the Bears. Hill will likely get another chance, as a team looks at Hill’s situation – playing in one of the NFL’s worst passing offenses each of the past two years – and figures he can be productive in a better setting. In some biting comments to USA Today, Hill’s agent had the same thought.
"Two years in that kind of situation is disheartening,” Hill’s agent Alan Herman told USA Today. "He didn't have a chance that first year with that whole Tim Tebow-Mark Sanchez fiasco.... His second year, Geno Smith was learning how to play quarterback. So they never threw the ball deep because they wanted to simplify things for Geno." The Jets also cut Clemson quarterback Tajh Boyd, a sixth-round pick in May.
•Washington Redskins: Washington cut three running backs who could latch on elsewhere: Evan Royster, Lache Seastrunk and Chris Thompson. Seastrunk had an 80-yard touchdown in the fourth preseason game, but the speedster from Baylor was too limited to beat out Silas Redd for the third tailback spot.
•Dallas Cowboys: Among Dallas’ cuts was running back Ryan Williams, a second-round pick of the Arizona Cardinals in 2011 who has never fully recovered from a knee injury suffered as a rookie.
•New York Giants: They put receiver Mario Manningham and kick returner Trindon Holliday on injured reserve. Manningham will always be known in Giants lore for a huge fourth-quarter catch on the sideline in Super Bowl XLVI to help beat the New England Patriots, but injuries have derailed his career since then. He tried to rekindle his career after two mostly lost seasons with the San Francisco 49ers, but a calf injury forced him to IR.
•Detroit Lions: After adding Golden Tate in free agency, receiver Kris Durham became expendable. Durham, who had 490 yards last season and was a college teammate of Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford, was cut. So was running back Mikel Leshoure, a 2011 second-round pick.
•Cleveland Browns: Cleveland cut promising rookie quarterback Connor Shaw in order to keep 34-year-old Rex Grossman as its third quarterback, according to Yahoo's Rand Getlin. That's a downright bizarre and wasteful move by a team in rebuilding mode. Receiver Nate Burleson, who just turned 33, couldn’t make a team that has one of the worst receiving corps in the NFL. He was cut on Saturday, according to multiple reports, and it’s fair to wonder if Burleson’s career is over after 457 catches with the Vikings, Seahawks and Lions. The Browns also reportedly cut cornerback Leon McFadden, a third-round pick just last year.
•Seattle Seahawks: The Terrelle Pryor experiment ended after the preseason. The former Raiders quarterback and Ohio State star was 11-of-17 for 134 yards and a touchdown in the fourth preseason game, but that wasn’t enough to earn a roster spot. At 25 years old he could get another look, perhaps from the Rams, who lost starter Sam Bradford for the season.
•Philadelphia Eagles: Philadelphia cut Alex Henery, who has been the team’s kicker since he was a fourth-round pick in 2011. The Eagles will go with rookie Cody Parkey, who showed more range on field goals this preseason.
•Cincinnati Bengals: When the Bengals drafted Jeremy Hill in the second round, BenJarvus Green-Ellis was not long for Cincinnati’s roster. Green-Ellis, who carried the ball 498 times for the Bengals the last two years and had 13 touchdowns, was cut.
•San Diego Chargers: San Diego had high hopes for Vincent Brown when it took him in the third round of the 2011 draft, but he never paid off for the Chargers. Brown, who missed the 2012 season with an ankle injury, had 60 catches for 801 yards and three touchdowns in his other two seasons, was released.
•Miami Dolphins: Running back Daniel Thomas, a 2011 second-round pick, highlighted Miami’s final cuts. Thomas averaged 3.6 yards per carry in his three Dolphins seasons.
•Denver Broncos: Safety Duke Ihenacho, who started at safety all last season for the Broncos including in their Super Bowl loss, was cut. Ihenacho is a good safety in run support but not as adept in coverage, and Denver upgraded at strong safety when it signed T.J. Ward this offseason. Denver also cut defensive tackle Kevin Vickerson, who started Denver’s first 11 games last season before suffering a season-ending hip injury.
Week #1 Opening Line Report
With Labor Day weekend drawing to a close, it’s a sure sign of two things: Summer is pretty much finished, and the National Football League is just getting started. While Week #1 odds have been on the board since the spring, action hasn't really heated up until recently. And we’ve got some sterling Week #1 matchups right out of the gate, most notably in the Thursday night opener, with the Green Bay Packers traveling to Seattle to take on the Super Bowl champion Seahawks in the primetime spotlight. The opening number at most sportsbooks was Seahawks -5 to -6. Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag said his place stuck with the higher line.
“We opened with the Seahawks a solid 6-point home favorite, and we haven’t moved off that number,” Stewart tells StatSystems Sports. “This game has seen great two-way action, and from all indications, we won’t have to move off this number, but maybe we’ll move the juice from time to time.”
•Colts @ Broncos (-7, Over/Under 55.5)
The defending AFC champion Denver Broncos hope to bounce back from an embarrassing Super Bowl performance and ride Peyton Manning’s arm to another big year. The line opened at Denver -7 back in April and is still ranging from 7 to 7.5 at most books. CarbonSports opened at 7.5 and hasn’t been nudged in either direction for the Sunday Night Football contest. “While we saw decent Colts money come in early, all the late money has been on the Broncos,” Stewart says.
“The reason for that late money: the Broncos and Peyton Manning have looked very sharp in the preseason and bettors believe they’ll carry that into Week #1 of the regular season. We tend to agree with those bettors and have been shading our line toward the Broncos.”
•49ers (-5.5, Over/Under 51) @ Cowboys
The San Francisco 49ers are having all sorts of off-the-field issues, with linebacker Aldon Smith getting smacked with a nine-game suspension last week for violating the league’s personal conduct policy, followed by defensive lineman Ray McDonald’s arrest early Sunday morning on domestic violence charges. But San Francisco is holding steady as 5.5-point chalk for Sunday afternoon’s tilt at AT&T Stadium. The line for this game was among those taking the biggest jump since numbers went up in April. “San Francisco opened a solid 3-point road favorite, and that number proved to be way too short as all the early action was on the 49ers,” Stewart told us. “We didn’t stay on three very long - it was probably one of our very first moves when we hung Week #1 lines back in April.
“We went to 3.5 and eventually blew through four and got to 4.5. That’s an enormous move for an NFL game, but with news coming out about Cowboys linebacker Sean Lee going down for the year, we wanted to get aggressive with this game. As more and more money showed for the 49ers, we eventually got to 49ers -6, which is our current number.”
•Patriots (-4.5, Over/Under 46.5) @ Dolphins
The New England Patriots were a banged-up team with not much of a defense last season, yet came up just a game short of the Super Bowl. With stud tight end Rob Gronkowski back, along with a better defense that includes a much improved secondary, Stewart said the money is piling in on New England. That’s taken a line that started at New England -3 and pushed it to -4.5 in most spots, and even -5 at CarbonSports, for Sunday’s game. “We got to -3.5 in early June, by late July we got to -4.5 and eventually to Patriots -5,” Stewart says. “So far, 80 percent of the action is on the Pats."
"Since we got to -5, we did book some sharp action on the Dolphins. But it wasn’t enough to move off (-5). Our exposure on the Patriots is significant enough to where we definitely want to write more action on the Dolphins, regardless of if it’s sharp.”
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Which Division Is The Strongest?
Expert Handicapper Jude Ravo
The National Football League’s regular season officially kicks off on Thursday evening when Green Bay travels to Seattle at 8:30 PM EST on the NFL Network to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks. So I will be previewing everything to come all week, capped off by our awards and Super Bowl predictions on Thursday.
Not every division is equal. Ask the Colts and the Broncos, two AFC favorites who look at their 2014 schedule and see much different things. The Colts have the easiest schedule in the NFL, based on what their opponents' records were in 2013. The Broncos have the second toughest. A lot of that is based on the six divisional games they play. The Broncos aren't helped by four games against 2013 playoff teams, and the Colts won't play a divisional game against an opponent that had a winning record last year. And it might ultimately affect seeding in the AFC playoffs.
So let's try to figure out how the eight NFL divisions rank in terms of strength, shall we?
#8 AFC South: Look at any preseason ranking and you’ll find three teams from this division near the bottom. Jacksonville was outscored by more than 200 points last year, yet they went 3-1 against the Texans and Titans. While the Titans aren’t as bad as people think, the Texans might not have the rebound some are predicting either. The Colts, on paper, should win this division by early December. Maybe late November.
#7 NFC East: If you wanted to argue this is the worst division in football, I wouldn’t stop you. The Redskins and Giants are coming off horrendous seasons, although the Giants added a lot this offseason. The Cowboys’ defense is a mess. The Eagles are the trendy pick this year but they didn’t exactly blow away a bad division last season. Hey, at least we get to see at least one of these teams on roughly 98 percent of the NFL’s prime-time schedule this season.
#6 AFC East: It seems like another year of the same old thing, with New England winning the division and the other three battling mediocrity to get a wild-card spot. The Jets and Dolphins both finished 8-8 last year, so there’s hope that they can take the next step. The Bills didn’t look good in the preseason, but there’s reason to think they can be good too. But really, it’s the Patriots and nobody else looks remotely special.
#5 AFC North: This is one of the few divisions that you can make a case for any one of three teams winning it. The Bengals won it last year, the Steelers are always contenders and finished last year strong, and the Ravens are usually in it. If the Ravens’ offense is better than what it was last year, it could be a great three-team race. And then there’s Cleveland. At least the Browns will be interesting to watch once they make a quarterback change.
#4 AFC West: The AFC West had the rare achievement of sending three teams to the playoffs last season. It’s not out of the question that could happen again, although most people (including myself) are planning on a Chiefs regression. San Diego could take a step back too, because it’s hard to consistently win if the defense is well below average. Then you have one of the NFL’s top few teams in Denver balanced out by one of the NFL’s bottom few teams in Oakland.
#3 NFC North: Here’s what we know: The Packers will be very good, and the Bears will be too if their defense cooperates a little. The Vikings probably won’t be that good, though there are some reasons to think they’ll be better. And then you have the Lions, who could be 12-4 or 4-12 and I wouldn’t be surprised either way. They’re still the most unpredictable team in the league. But assuming the Lions don’t put it all together, it could be a great two-team race between a pair of classic rivals.
#2 NFC South: The NFC South has never had a repeat champion, which is a weird and fun oddity. It seems that trend could continue because the South has four interesting teams. New Orleans is the consensus favorite. Atlanta should be better than last year’s injury-filled nightmare, and Tampa Bay should be better than last year’s Greg Schiano-filled debacle. The Panthers are the reigning champs and have Cam Newton and a great defense. Every one of these divisional games will be fun to watch.
#1 NFC West: A few key injuries have taken this division back a bit. So the argument that this might be the toughest division ever, from top to bottom, takes a hit. But it’s still the best division in this year’s NFL. Sam Bradford’s second ACL injury probably limits the Rams’ ceiling, but the defense is still nasty and they have some good complementary pieces around new quarterback Shaun Hill. The Cardinals took a big hit with the season-ending injury to Darnell Dockett, but they were 10-6 last year and will be tough again. And the Seahawks and 49ers are still among the top few Super Bowl favorites.
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Seven Preseason Lessons
Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor
#1 Only two teams emerged from the NFL preseason schedule without a win, the Indianapolis Colts (0-4) and the Dallas Cowboys (0-4). While one team is likely to regroup and potentially make the playoffs the other team could be in for a disastrous season. I don't believe that the Indianapolis franchise is overly concerned about the straight-up results from their preseason games. They have a franchise QB in place and play in a very manageable division. Dallas, on the other hand, has a multitude of noticeable problems and could be in for a very long season. The Cowboys may be fielding the worse defense in the NFL and with defections and injuries their depth has been thinned as well. In their four preseason games, the Cowboys surrendered 27, 25, 37, and 27 points (29 ppg), lost the first down battle 90 to 70, and allowed more than 6.0 yards per play.
On offense, the Cowboys held out quarterback Tony Romo for much of the preseason as he returns from injury, but there is little QB depth behind him and his importance is even more exaggerated as Dallas is likely to find itself playing from behind more than usual. The schedule makers didn't help either, in the first six weeks they have games versus San Francisco, Seattle, and New Orleans. Total bettors have already taken notice as the San Francisco/Dallas game has been bet up from 48 to 51, making it the biggest total move on the board so far. I expect this matchup to close even higher, and savvy Dallas over bettors will need to concentrate on getting their bets in early every week.
#2 Three teams managed to make it out of the preseason unscathed, the N.Y. Giants (5-0), Baltimore Ravens (4-0), and the Minnesota Vikings (4-0). Of these teams, which are pretenders and which are contenders? Baltimore is the contender here, I think that the Ravens were the most impressive team for the entire preseason. Baltimore outscored its opponents, 105-63 and in the three games that quarterback Joe Flacco played, his QBR's were 110.0, 93.5, and 107.2. In addition, the Ravens may have played the toughest preseason schedule, encountering three opponents who truly efforted to win the games. An opening game win against San Francisco as HC Jim Harbaugh faced off against his brother, a Week #2 matchup versus the Cowboys in which Dallas allowed Romo to play a week early because they had been embarrassed badly in an opening week loss to San Diego, and the Week #3 tune-up game win against Washington. Baltimore plays in a winnable division and their schedule features only five teams that made the playoffs last season. I think that Flacco will improve as the season progresses as he becomes familiar with new OC Gary Kubiak's offense.
The Giants are the pretenders in this group. The Giants 5-0 SU mark is noteworthy, but the wins were in a less than impressive manner and often facilitated by the play of reserves. New York has a new OC in Ben McAdoo, and unlike in Baltimore, it seemed as if the Giants starters were having a hard time grasping the system. QB Eli Manning and the first-string offense led 19 drives in the five games, seven of those resulted in three-and-outs, and Eli completed just 48.8% of his passes. In the last five years, 10 teams have registered and undefeated NFL preseason and only one of those teams has gone on to win its division. With the NFC East likely being a one-bid division, that doesn't bode well for the Giants.
#3 Preseason playing time is often a precarious thing and handled differently by different coaches and teams. It seems that, often times, the more valuable a player is to his team, the less he will play, this is especially true of offensive skill position players. So, with that in mind, is there anyone in the league more valuable than Adrian Peterson? Over the last three preseason’s, Peterson has played exactly two snaps and been given ZERO carries. By comparison, just this year, Peyton Manning was on the field for 88 snaps and Tom Brady for 31. There is little doubt that, regardless of what others may think, the Vikings organization feels that Peterson is the player in the league that means the most to his team.
#4 I was not a big believer in the Eagles hiring of former Oregon Ducks HC Chip Kelly, however, I may be changing my mind. I was unsure if Kelly's systems and up-tempo style would translate well to the NFL level but it seems as if the groundwork for success is being laid. At least, it seems, the Eagles scheme has been making stars of the skill position players who run wild in it. RB LeSean McCoy was already a solid player but LY's emergence of QB Nick Foles and WR Riley Cooper seem to be directly related to system they play in. The Eagles system is quarterback friendly and Philadelphia got the best overall QB play of any team in the preseason. The Eagles played four QB's and their average QBR's are as follows: Nick Foles: 83.9, Matt Barkley 86.4, Mark Sanchez 103.8, Greg Kinne 120.5. It's interesting to note that as the quality of the defenders on the field went down, the Eagles QBR ratings increased dramatically. QB's Sanchez and Kinne spent much of their time on the field against backups while playing with backups themselves. This would seem to say that the Eagles scheme and play-calling had a lot to do with the effectiveness of the offense. This may be an interesting handicapping and prop-betting note for QB play when the Eagles face weaker defensive teams or teams missing defensive starters.
#5 Are the Carolina Panthers going to regress? Carolina had an encouraging season last year, going 12-4 and winning the NFC South, the Panthers seemed poised to become real contenders in the loaded NFC, but the preseason seems to have hinted at some problems than began in the offseason. Carolina lost both of its' starting wide-receivers’ from last season, Steve Smith is now a Raven and Brandon LaFell is in New England, so the Panthers are breaking in a new set of wideouts including rookie Kelvin Benjamin. In their Week #3 tune-up game at New England, Benjamin was the only WR targeted more than twice and the passing game accounted for just 208 yards. Quarterback Cam Newton is recovering from offseason surgery and, quite frankly, does not look fully recovered. The coaching staff has already said that early in the season he will not be allowed to run the read-option and Newton has not shown that he can stay in the pocket and beat NFL defenses.
In his limited preseason action, Cam consistently overthrew WR's and the Panthers first-string offense sputtered. A slow start from the gate may be crippling for this team as the middle of their schedule features the toughest five game stretch in the division: at Cincinnati, at Green Bay, versus Seattle, versus New Orleans, at Philadelphia. Carolina may have a telling matchup in the regular season opener at Tampa Bay, as they opened as two-point favorites, but now find themselves at one-point 'dogs.
#6 Redskins owner Dan Snyder may be headed for a debate that will stir up as many emotions and divergent opinions as the one over his franchise's name. Which quarterback actually gives his team the best chance to win? Just the "eyeball test" will tell you that Robert Griffin III is not the player (yet) that he was prior to his knee injury and the Washington offense has struggled thusly. Backup QB Kirk Cousins has played well in relief of RGIII and his pocket passing skills seem better suited for the NFL game and new HC Jay Gruden's offense. For the preseason, Griffin went 13-20, 141 yards, 0 TD's and 2 INT's. Cousins went 35-54, 370 yards, 4 TD's and 1 INT. Everyone involved with the Redskins is saying the right thing but I believe it's interesting to note that Gruden decided not to play Cousins at all in preseason Week #4.
Of the 32 NFL teams, only six decided not to play their current starter or backup during the preseason finale. Cousins would have been facing mostly second and third stringers and, in his absence, QB Colt McCoy threw for 321 yards and 2 TD's with a QBR of 105.7. Adding some or a majority of those numbers (McCoy also threw 2 INT's in the opponents end zone!) to Cousins stats would have created a disparity that might have stirred things up even more. Washington added WR DeSean Jackson and Gruden is known as an offensive coach, so expectations are high for the Redskins offense and that puts even more pressure on RGIII to produce. If he underperforms, is there a chance that we could see Cousins in an increased role? Despite the denials, I say, yes.
#7 PENALTIES!!! Flying yellow flags were a major topic of discussion for the entire preseason. With the referees focus on illegal contact, hand checking, and generally anything that involves touching a potential pass catcher, we saw the total number of penalties per game and penalties that resulted in first downs skyrocket. With "defensive holding" resulting in just a five-yard penalty but also an automatic FD, we saw a plethora of drives kept alive via penalty. The NFL has shown an inclination lately to create rule changes that favor the offense and protect offensive players, many say this is an effort to create a more "fan friendly" higher scoring product. That is certainly being played out in the betting arena as the data from the last few years says so.
Average Opening Total From 2011-2014:
•Week #1, 2011 - 40.5 --- 7 of 16 games that were bet UP from the opener
•Week #1, 2012 - 44.1 --- 7 of 16 games that were bet UP from the opener
•Week #1, 2013 - 45.5 --- 9 of 16 games that were bet UP from the opener
•Week #1, 2014 - 45.9 --- 7 of 16 games that were bet UP from the opener (as of 9-1-14)
Of course, matchups, weather, coaching changes, etc. have an effect on these numbers but just this simple example can show you that the rule changes have effected scoring. It's interesting to note that oddsmakers are seemingly taking the stance that the penalty calling will revert to more normal numbers once the regular season begins, as the increase in the average opening number for this year is up just 0.4 points. Bettors seem to be taking a similar overall stance, the percentage of games being bet up from the opener is in line with recent years and the major upward mover, the San Francisco/Dallas game, is likely due to awareness of the Cowboys defensive struggles and not an expectation of a penalty bonanza. I'd advise bettors who like any Over’s in Week #1 to get them in prior to Thursday's kickoff game.
The Green Bay/Seattle confrontation seems the perfect fodder to see if the penalty increase will carry over into the 2014 regular season. This total has been bet up and we should see plenty of pass attempts from two good offenses featuring All-Pro quarterback's. Seattle's secondary is known for being both talented and physical, if the referees are limiting the contact and throwing flags on Sherman and Co. on opening night on Thursday at CenturyLink Field, it's likely an indicator that may carry over for all of week #1. Just a heads up.
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Quick-Hits - Week #1
Systems Analyst James Vogel
Thursday, 9/4/2014
•Packers @ Seahawks-- Seahawks won/covered 10 of their last 11 home openers, including last five in row; under is 11-1-1 in their last 13 home openers (91.6%). Home side won seven of last eight series matchups; Packers are 2-3 in last five games at CenturyLink Field, losing last visit in 2012 on awful call by replacement refs on last play of game. Green Bay lost 14-12/34-28 in last two road openers; they allowed 30+ points in last three series openers. Packers had been 17-7-1 as road dog under McCarthy (70.8%) until last year, when they were 1-3, 1-2 with sub quarterback’s playing. Since ‘07, Pack is 11-6 as non-divisional road dogs. Since ‘05, Seahawks are 31-16-1 as home favorites, 12-5 under Carroll, 6-3 versus non-division foes.
Sunday, 9/7/2014
•Saints @ Falcons-- Saints won six of last seven meetings in this underrated NFC South rivalry, with five of last six wins by 6 or less points; they’ve won six of last eight visits to the Georgia Dome, with last four wins by 4 or less points. New Orleans covered only one of last seven road openers (3-4 SU), with five of last six going over total. Atlanta won last six home openers and nine of last 10 (9-1 vs. spread). Saints are 6-4 in last ten divisional road games, with only one win by more than 4 points- it’s been four years since they won a NFC South road game by more than 7 points. Falcons are 11-6-1 versus spread (64.7%) in divisional home matchups under Smith; they were -7 in turnovers LY, after being +35 the three years before that.
•Vikings @ Rams-- Zimmer’s first game as head coach comes versus veteran Ram defense that has 105 sacks in two years under Fisher (#1/#3 in NFL) and upgraded at defensive coordinator this year with Gregg Williams back on job. Frazier was 8-5 versus spread as a non-divisional road underdog in three years as Minnesota head coach; Vikings are 2-8 in last ten road openers, losing last four (1-2-1 vs. spread); they won last two meetings with Rams 38-10/36-22, but none of these coaches, few of these players took part in those games. Rams lost six of last seven openers, but are 2-0 in home openers under Fisher; St Louis is 4-3 as home favorite under Fisher- they were +8 in turnovers in 2013, just second time in last seven years they had positive ratio.
•Browns @ Steelers-- Pittsburgh has treated Cleveland like a pinata, winning 19 of 20 meetings, last three by 14-16-13 points; Browns lost last nine visits to
Heinz Field, last six by 11+ points- they scored two touchdowns’ on 24 drives in two games versus Pitt last year, but now there is new coach/GM in Cleveland; they were 3-0 when Hoyer started in 2013; he passed for 321 yards in only road start, at Minnesota. Steelers are 10-8-1 as divisional home favorites under Tomlin; they went 8-8 straight-up in each of last two years, are -27 in turnovers last three seasons, so there is pressure on them. Steelers won 10 of last 11 home openers, covering seven of last nine, with last five staying under the total.
•Jaguars @ Eagles-- Philadelphia is just 9-23 versus spread at home (28.1%) the last four years, 9-17 as home favorite, 0-2 when laying double digits; they won 28-3 in Jacksonville four years ago, its first series win in four games; Jaguars won 13-6 here in 2006, their only visit to Lincoln Financial Field. Eagles lost six of last eight home openers, winning by 1-35 points (0-5 vs. spread in last five); their last two home openers were decided by total of four points. Jacksonville lost five of last six road openers (2-4 vs. spread); seven of their last ten road openers stayed under total. Jaguars are 5-15 versus spread (25.0%) in last 20 matchups versus NFC teams; Eagles are 7-13 in their last 20 versus AFC squads. Over last five years, Week #1 double digit favorites are 3-4 against the spread.
•Raiders @ Jets-- Jets blocked punt for touchdown, led 20-3 at half in 37-27 (-3) win over Oakland last year, Raiders 4th loss in row at MetLife Stadium, and 11th win for home side in last 14 series meetings. Raiders started 0-1 in ten of last eleven seasons; they’ve lost three of last four road openers, losing by 25-22-4 points. New York won four of last five home openers, with three of last four decided by 3 or less points- they’re 5-16 versus spread in last 21 home openers (23.8%), but covered last two. Raiders are 10-15 as dogs under Allen, 7-8 on road (2-14 SU). Jets are 12-16-1 as single digit favorites under Ryan. Over is 10-4-1 in Oakland’s last 15 road openers, 2-4 in Jets’ last six home openers.
•Bengals @ Ravens-- Ravens had only three offensive touchdowns’ on 29 drives versus Bengals last year, all on drives of 53 or less yards; they were outgained by 345 yards in two series meetings in 2013, but now Cincinnati has two new coordinators (Zimmer/Gruden are HC‘s), while Kubiak is upgrade over Caldwell as offensive coordinator for Baltimore offense. Home side won eight of last nine series meetings; Bengals lost last four visits to M&T Bank Stadium, by 6-7-31-3 points. Baltimore won its last nine home openers, covering seven, with all nine victories by 7+ points. Cincinnati started 0-1 five of last six years; they lost five of last seven road openers. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Raven openers, 5-0 in Bengals’ last five road openers.
•Bills @ Bears-- Buffalo signed Bears' old backup quarterback Jordan Palmer last week, does that give them edge here? They're 4-15-1 as road underdog last three years (21.0%); they’re 0-5 at Soldier Field, with four losses by 17+ points- their last visit here was a 40-7 loss in 2006. Chicago is 7-4 overall in series, with last meeting 22-19 Bear win in Toronto in 2010. Bills lost eight of last ten road openers, covering one of last four- they’re 6-5 versus spread as a dog in road openers. Chicago won last five home openers (1-3-1 vs. spread in last five as favorite in HO). Since 2007, Bears are 13-22-3 as home favorites (37.1%), 1-3-2 under Trestman, but they’re 5-1-2 in last eight games versus AFC foes. Over last nine years, Buffalo is 12-21-3 versus spread against NFC teams. Over is 4-1 in Buffalo’s last five road openers, 3-0 in Bears’ last three home openers.
•Redskins @ Texans-- Houston went 2-14 in 2013, losing last 14 games after going 24-10 in previous 34, so they changed coaches, traded for Mallett Sunday, so current quarterback Fitzpatrick is lame duck starter; Texans won last four home openers, covering three, scoring 30+ points in all four- six of their last nine home openers stayed under total. Washington lost five of last six road openers, but is 6-3 versus spread as dogs in road openers, with four of last five going over total. Since 2009, Texans are 5-12-3 versus spread (29.4%) when facing NFC foe- they were 0-4 as home favorites last season, after being 20-14 the six years before that. Redskins won 31-15 in only visit to Reliant Stadium in 2006; Texans won in overtime in last series meeting, in 2010. Jay Gruden is rookie NFL head coach, but had 93-61 record as a HC in Arena Football, winning two titles.
•Titans @ Chiefs-- Ken Whisenhunt was 16-20-2 as road dog with Arizona, but 4-0-1 versus spread in road openers there; Titans won two of last three visits to Arrowhead, in series where visitor won four of last five meetings. 11-5 Chiefs were +18 in turnovers last year, after 2-14 Chiefs were -24 year before; regression is expected. Since 2007, Kansas City is 5-19-1 versus spread as home favorite (20.8%); Reid covered once in his last eight home openers, Chiefs are 1-6-1 versus spread in their last eight. Tennessee covered five of its last seven road openers. Under is 18-3-2, 85.7% in Chiefs’ last 23 home openers, 14-3 in Titans’ last 17 road openers. Chiefs (-2.5) won 26-17 at Tennessee in 2013, scoring touchdown on special teams fumble, scoring only one TD, three FG’s on seven drives in Titan red zone.
•Patriots @ Dolphins-- Miami installed new, faster offense this offseason; Patriots played Eagles in preseason, who run that very offense. Dolphins lost seven of last eight series meetings, upsetting New England 24-20 (+1) in Week #15 last season; Patriots won five of last seven visits to Sun Life Stadium, with four of five victories by 14+ points. New England won first meeting nine of last ten years; they’re 6-2 in last eight road openers (5-3 vs. spread). Dolphins lost six of last eight openers, but are 2-0 in home openers under Philbin and 5-1-1 versus spread as home dogs. Miami is 9-14-1 versus spread in division games (39.1%) the last four years. Over last decade, Patriots are 16-8-2 as road favorite in division games, 57-31-5 as single digit favorite overall. Dolphins last five home openers went over total.
•Panthers @ Buccaneers-- Carolina started last five seasons 0-1; they scored 10-7 points in losing last two season openers. Panthers lost last five road openers (0-5 vs. spread)- they were favored last two years. Lovie Smith went 29-19 his last three years coaching Bears; playoff losses got him fired,, but he is a huge upgrade at head coach for Buccaneers, who had only one touchdown on 20 drives versus Carolina in 2013, with three turnovers, along with eight 3/outs. Panthers swept series 31-13/27-6, outrushing Tampa Bay 282-114. Carolina won three of its last five visits to Raymond James Stadium. Bucs covered three of last four games as home underdog in home openers; they’re 5-4 straight-up in last nine. Five of last six Carolina road openers went over total.
•49ers @ Cowboys-- 49ers are 19-5-2 as single digit favorite (79.1%) under Harbaugh, 10-4 as road favorites, 3-0 in season openers, winning by 16-8-6 points, while scoring 33-30-34 points. Dallas usually opens on road; since 1988, they’re 5-3 straight-up when season opener is at home- they won last three home openers by total of 13 points. Cowboys covered last five tries as dog in home opener, but last such encounter was in 2002. Since 2006, Dallas is 6-2 as home underdog, 4-1 under Garrett. Cowboys won last three series meetings by 3-13-3 points, but haven’t met since 2011, Harbaugh’s second game with 49ers. Five of last seven Dallas home openers went over total. 49ers are just 6-7-1 versus spread on carpet under Harbaugh.
•Colts @ Broncos-- Denver was 6-0 last year before losing 39-33 at Indianapolis in Week #7; they had 12 penalties, three turnovers (-2) and ran for just 64 yards in game they trailed 26-14 at half. Colts had 11-yard edge in field position; only one of their four touchdowns was on drive longer than 50 yards. Colts lost three of last four road openers, with all three losses by 10+ points; the last six years, they’re 0-6 versus spread in Week #1 games. Manning is 9-5 versus spread in home openers; Denver is 22-3 straight-up in last 25 home openers, covering four of last five; this figures to be emotional day, with declining health of Bronco owner Bowlen. Over is 5-1-1 in Denver’s last seven Mile High openers.
Monday, 9/8/2014
•Giants @ Lions--Giants started 0-1 last three years; they’re lost three of last four road openers, with 12 of last 14 going over total. Detroit lost six of last seven games last season, one of which was 23-20 (-9) Week #16 debacle to Giants; New York’s two touchdowns were on 49-yard drive and defensive score. Lions outrushed them 148-41, still lost; that doesn’t happen a lot. Giants won last three series meetings by total of 17 points; they won last five visits to Motor City. Detroit has new coaches, Giants have new offense that struggled to gel in preseason. Lions won last three home openers, scoring 36.3 ppg; they’re 7-1-1 versus spread in last nine openers, with last four going over total. Last three years, Giants are 11-6 as road underdogs.
•Chargers @ Cardinals-- San Diego is 9-3 in last dozen series meetings, winning last three by 8-7-31 points; they won three of four visits to University of Phoenix Stadium, but haven’t been in desert since 2002, before dome opened. Chargers are 8-3-1 as road underdogs last two years; they covered three of four versus NFC in 2013, after being 0-8 previous two seasons. Chargers won four of last five Week #1 road openers; five of their last seven road openers went over total. Cardinals were 5-1-1 as favorites in Arians’ first year, after covering only five of previous 20 games when favored. Arizona won six of last seven home openers (5-2 vs. spread); they‘re 6-1-1 versus spread in Week #1 last eight years.
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Gridiron Trends - Week #1
•NY GIANTS are 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games against NFC North division opponents since 1992.
The average score was NY GIANTS 20.8, OPPONENT 18.5.
•NEW ORLEANS is 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 23.9, OPPONENT 18.6.
•BALTIMORE is 25-5 (+22.2 Units) against the money line in home games in September games since 1992.
The average score was BALTIMORE 24.6, OPPONENT 15.2.
•DETROIT is 23-44 (-25.4 Units) against the 1rst half line as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points versus the first half line since 1992.
The average score was DETROIT 11.7, OPPONENT 10.7.
•PHILADELPHIA is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total as a favorite versus the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 10.7, OPPONENT 8.7.
•MIKE SMITH is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of ATLANTA.
The average score was SMITH 30.7, OPPONENT 18.7.
Situational Analysis Of The Week
•Play On - Any team versus the money line (CAROLINA) - first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 6 or more wins in last 8 games, good team from last season (60% to 75%) playing a terrible team from last year (<=25%).
(28-2 since 1983.) (93.3%, +24.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -155
The average score in these games was: Team 29.3, Opponent 18.3 (Average point differential = +11)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0, +3 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (11-0, +11 units).
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THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 4th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** National Football League Information - Week #1 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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NFL Betting News And Notes - Week #1
The biggest story among the National Football League cuts on Saturday was the Rams releasing defensive end Michael Sam. The biggest name among the cuts, from a football standpoint, was cornerback Champ Bailey. Going to New Orleans was supposed to be the last chapter in Bailey’s great career. He never got to write a page in that chapter. The Saints decided to eat the $500,000 signing bonus they invested in Bailey this offseason and cut the longtime Broncos and Redskins defensive back.
Bailey is a 12-time Pro Bowler, but has lost a step or two at age 36. He struggled for the Broncos in last season’s Super Bowl loss to Seattle. He played in just five games in 2013 because of injuries. There are a lot of teams in the National Football League who could use help at cornerback, but it will be interesting to see if any take a shot on Bailey, a likely Hall of Famer. Here were the rest of the biggest stories from around the league as teams cut their rosters down to 53 players:
•New York Jets: They admitted a massive mistake in their final cuts, dumping receiver Stephen Hill, the 43rd pick of the draft two years ago. Hill looked the part, at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, but had just 45 catches for 594 yards and four touchdowns in two years. Receiver Alshon Jeffery, selected two picks later, has become a star with the Bears. Hill will likely get another chance, as a team looks at Hill’s situation – playing in one of the NFL’s worst passing offenses each of the past two years – and figures he can be productive in a better setting. In some biting comments to USA Today, Hill’s agent had the same thought.
"Two years in that kind of situation is disheartening,” Hill’s agent Alan Herman told USA Today. "He didn't have a chance that first year with that whole Tim Tebow-Mark Sanchez fiasco.... His second year, Geno Smith was learning how to play quarterback. So they never threw the ball deep because they wanted to simplify things for Geno." The Jets also cut Clemson quarterback Tajh Boyd, a sixth-round pick in May.
•Washington Redskins: Washington cut three running backs who could latch on elsewhere: Evan Royster, Lache Seastrunk and Chris Thompson. Seastrunk had an 80-yard touchdown in the fourth preseason game, but the speedster from Baylor was too limited to beat out Silas Redd for the third tailback spot.
•Dallas Cowboys: Among Dallas’ cuts was running back Ryan Williams, a second-round pick of the Arizona Cardinals in 2011 who has never fully recovered from a knee injury suffered as a rookie.
•New York Giants: They put receiver Mario Manningham and kick returner Trindon Holliday on injured reserve. Manningham will always be known in Giants lore for a huge fourth-quarter catch on the sideline in Super Bowl XLVI to help beat the New England Patriots, but injuries have derailed his career since then. He tried to rekindle his career after two mostly lost seasons with the San Francisco 49ers, but a calf injury forced him to IR.
•Detroit Lions: After adding Golden Tate in free agency, receiver Kris Durham became expendable. Durham, who had 490 yards last season and was a college teammate of Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford, was cut. So was running back Mikel Leshoure, a 2011 second-round pick.
•Cleveland Browns: Cleveland cut promising rookie quarterback Connor Shaw in order to keep 34-year-old Rex Grossman as its third quarterback, according to Yahoo's Rand Getlin. That's a downright bizarre and wasteful move by a team in rebuilding mode. Receiver Nate Burleson, who just turned 33, couldn’t make a team that has one of the worst receiving corps in the NFL. He was cut on Saturday, according to multiple reports, and it’s fair to wonder if Burleson’s career is over after 457 catches with the Vikings, Seahawks and Lions. The Browns also reportedly cut cornerback Leon McFadden, a third-round pick just last year.
•Seattle Seahawks: The Terrelle Pryor experiment ended after the preseason. The former Raiders quarterback and Ohio State star was 11-of-17 for 134 yards and a touchdown in the fourth preseason game, but that wasn’t enough to earn a roster spot. At 25 years old he could get another look, perhaps from the Rams, who lost starter Sam Bradford for the season.
•Philadelphia Eagles: Philadelphia cut Alex Henery, who has been the team’s kicker since he was a fourth-round pick in 2011. The Eagles will go with rookie Cody Parkey, who showed more range on field goals this preseason.
•Cincinnati Bengals: When the Bengals drafted Jeremy Hill in the second round, BenJarvus Green-Ellis was not long for Cincinnati’s roster. Green-Ellis, who carried the ball 498 times for the Bengals the last two years and had 13 touchdowns, was cut.
•San Diego Chargers: San Diego had high hopes for Vincent Brown when it took him in the third round of the 2011 draft, but he never paid off for the Chargers. Brown, who missed the 2012 season with an ankle injury, had 60 catches for 801 yards and three touchdowns in his other two seasons, was released.
•Miami Dolphins: Running back Daniel Thomas, a 2011 second-round pick, highlighted Miami’s final cuts. Thomas averaged 3.6 yards per carry in his three Dolphins seasons.
•Denver Broncos: Safety Duke Ihenacho, who started at safety all last season for the Broncos including in their Super Bowl loss, was cut. Ihenacho is a good safety in run support but not as adept in coverage, and Denver upgraded at strong safety when it signed T.J. Ward this offseason. Denver also cut defensive tackle Kevin Vickerson, who started Denver’s first 11 games last season before suffering a season-ending hip injury.
Week #1 Opening Line Report
With Labor Day weekend drawing to a close, it’s a sure sign of two things: Summer is pretty much finished, and the National Football League is just getting started. While Week #1 odds have been on the board since the spring, action hasn't really heated up until recently. And we’ve got some sterling Week #1 matchups right out of the gate, most notably in the Thursday night opener, with the Green Bay Packers traveling to Seattle to take on the Super Bowl champion Seahawks in the primetime spotlight. The opening number at most sportsbooks was Seahawks -5 to -6. Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag said his place stuck with the higher line.
“We opened with the Seahawks a solid 6-point home favorite, and we haven’t moved off that number,” Stewart tells StatSystems Sports. “This game has seen great two-way action, and from all indications, we won’t have to move off this number, but maybe we’ll move the juice from time to time.”
•Colts @ Broncos (-7, Over/Under 55.5)
The defending AFC champion Denver Broncos hope to bounce back from an embarrassing Super Bowl performance and ride Peyton Manning’s arm to another big year. The line opened at Denver -7 back in April and is still ranging from 7 to 7.5 at most books. CarbonSports opened at 7.5 and hasn’t been nudged in either direction for the Sunday Night Football contest. “While we saw decent Colts money come in early, all the late money has been on the Broncos,” Stewart says.
“The reason for that late money: the Broncos and Peyton Manning have looked very sharp in the preseason and bettors believe they’ll carry that into Week #1 of the regular season. We tend to agree with those bettors and have been shading our line toward the Broncos.”
•49ers (-5.5, Over/Under 51) @ Cowboys
The San Francisco 49ers are having all sorts of off-the-field issues, with linebacker Aldon Smith getting smacked with a nine-game suspension last week for violating the league’s personal conduct policy, followed by defensive lineman Ray McDonald’s arrest early Sunday morning on domestic violence charges. But San Francisco is holding steady as 5.5-point chalk for Sunday afternoon’s tilt at AT&T Stadium. The line for this game was among those taking the biggest jump since numbers went up in April. “San Francisco opened a solid 3-point road favorite, and that number proved to be way too short as all the early action was on the 49ers,” Stewart told us. “We didn’t stay on three very long - it was probably one of our very first moves when we hung Week #1 lines back in April.
“We went to 3.5 and eventually blew through four and got to 4.5. That’s an enormous move for an NFL game, but with news coming out about Cowboys linebacker Sean Lee going down for the year, we wanted to get aggressive with this game. As more and more money showed for the 49ers, we eventually got to 49ers -6, which is our current number.”
•Patriots (-4.5, Over/Under 46.5) @ Dolphins
The New England Patriots were a banged-up team with not much of a defense last season, yet came up just a game short of the Super Bowl. With stud tight end Rob Gronkowski back, along with a better defense that includes a much improved secondary, Stewart said the money is piling in on New England. That’s taken a line that started at New England -3 and pushed it to -4.5 in most spots, and even -5 at CarbonSports, for Sunday’s game. “We got to -3.5 in early June, by late July we got to -4.5 and eventually to Patriots -5,” Stewart says. “So far, 80 percent of the action is on the Pats."
"Since we got to -5, we did book some sharp action on the Dolphins. But it wasn’t enough to move off (-5). Our exposure on the Patriots is significant enough to where we definitely want to write more action on the Dolphins, regardless of if it’s sharp.”
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Which Division Is The Strongest?
Expert Handicapper Jude Ravo
The National Football League’s regular season officially kicks off on Thursday evening when Green Bay travels to Seattle at 8:30 PM EST on the NFL Network to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks. So I will be previewing everything to come all week, capped off by our awards and Super Bowl predictions on Thursday.
Not every division is equal. Ask the Colts and the Broncos, two AFC favorites who look at their 2014 schedule and see much different things. The Colts have the easiest schedule in the NFL, based on what their opponents' records were in 2013. The Broncos have the second toughest. A lot of that is based on the six divisional games they play. The Broncos aren't helped by four games against 2013 playoff teams, and the Colts won't play a divisional game against an opponent that had a winning record last year. And it might ultimately affect seeding in the AFC playoffs.
So let's try to figure out how the eight NFL divisions rank in terms of strength, shall we?
#8 AFC South: Look at any preseason ranking and you’ll find three teams from this division near the bottom. Jacksonville was outscored by more than 200 points last year, yet they went 3-1 against the Texans and Titans. While the Titans aren’t as bad as people think, the Texans might not have the rebound some are predicting either. The Colts, on paper, should win this division by early December. Maybe late November.
#7 NFC East: If you wanted to argue this is the worst division in football, I wouldn’t stop you. The Redskins and Giants are coming off horrendous seasons, although the Giants added a lot this offseason. The Cowboys’ defense is a mess. The Eagles are the trendy pick this year but they didn’t exactly blow away a bad division last season. Hey, at least we get to see at least one of these teams on roughly 98 percent of the NFL’s prime-time schedule this season.
#6 AFC East: It seems like another year of the same old thing, with New England winning the division and the other three battling mediocrity to get a wild-card spot. The Jets and Dolphins both finished 8-8 last year, so there’s hope that they can take the next step. The Bills didn’t look good in the preseason, but there’s reason to think they can be good too. But really, it’s the Patriots and nobody else looks remotely special.
#5 AFC North: This is one of the few divisions that you can make a case for any one of three teams winning it. The Bengals won it last year, the Steelers are always contenders and finished last year strong, and the Ravens are usually in it. If the Ravens’ offense is better than what it was last year, it could be a great three-team race. And then there’s Cleveland. At least the Browns will be interesting to watch once they make a quarterback change.
#4 AFC West: The AFC West had the rare achievement of sending three teams to the playoffs last season. It’s not out of the question that could happen again, although most people (including myself) are planning on a Chiefs regression. San Diego could take a step back too, because it’s hard to consistently win if the defense is well below average. Then you have one of the NFL’s top few teams in Denver balanced out by one of the NFL’s bottom few teams in Oakland.
#3 NFC North: Here’s what we know: The Packers will be very good, and the Bears will be too if their defense cooperates a little. The Vikings probably won’t be that good, though there are some reasons to think they’ll be better. And then you have the Lions, who could be 12-4 or 4-12 and I wouldn’t be surprised either way. They’re still the most unpredictable team in the league. But assuming the Lions don’t put it all together, it could be a great two-team race between a pair of classic rivals.
#2 NFC South: The NFC South has never had a repeat champion, which is a weird and fun oddity. It seems that trend could continue because the South has four interesting teams. New Orleans is the consensus favorite. Atlanta should be better than last year’s injury-filled nightmare, and Tampa Bay should be better than last year’s Greg Schiano-filled debacle. The Panthers are the reigning champs and have Cam Newton and a great defense. Every one of these divisional games will be fun to watch.
#1 NFC West: A few key injuries have taken this division back a bit. So the argument that this might be the toughest division ever, from top to bottom, takes a hit. But it’s still the best division in this year’s NFL. Sam Bradford’s second ACL injury probably limits the Rams’ ceiling, but the defense is still nasty and they have some good complementary pieces around new quarterback Shaun Hill. The Cardinals took a big hit with the season-ending injury to Darnell Dockett, but they were 10-6 last year and will be tough again. And the Seahawks and 49ers are still among the top few Super Bowl favorites.
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Seven Preseason Lessons
Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor
#1 Only two teams emerged from the NFL preseason schedule without a win, the Indianapolis Colts (0-4) and the Dallas Cowboys (0-4). While one team is likely to regroup and potentially make the playoffs the other team could be in for a disastrous season. I don't believe that the Indianapolis franchise is overly concerned about the straight-up results from their preseason games. They have a franchise QB in place and play in a very manageable division. Dallas, on the other hand, has a multitude of noticeable problems and could be in for a very long season. The Cowboys may be fielding the worse defense in the NFL and with defections and injuries their depth has been thinned as well. In their four preseason games, the Cowboys surrendered 27, 25, 37, and 27 points (29 ppg), lost the first down battle 90 to 70, and allowed more than 6.0 yards per play.
On offense, the Cowboys held out quarterback Tony Romo for much of the preseason as he returns from injury, but there is little QB depth behind him and his importance is even more exaggerated as Dallas is likely to find itself playing from behind more than usual. The schedule makers didn't help either, in the first six weeks they have games versus San Francisco, Seattle, and New Orleans. Total bettors have already taken notice as the San Francisco/Dallas game has been bet up from 48 to 51, making it the biggest total move on the board so far. I expect this matchup to close even higher, and savvy Dallas over bettors will need to concentrate on getting their bets in early every week.
#2 Three teams managed to make it out of the preseason unscathed, the N.Y. Giants (5-0), Baltimore Ravens (4-0), and the Minnesota Vikings (4-0). Of these teams, which are pretenders and which are contenders? Baltimore is the contender here, I think that the Ravens were the most impressive team for the entire preseason. Baltimore outscored its opponents, 105-63 and in the three games that quarterback Joe Flacco played, his QBR's were 110.0, 93.5, and 107.2. In addition, the Ravens may have played the toughest preseason schedule, encountering three opponents who truly efforted to win the games. An opening game win against San Francisco as HC Jim Harbaugh faced off against his brother, a Week #2 matchup versus the Cowboys in which Dallas allowed Romo to play a week early because they had been embarrassed badly in an opening week loss to San Diego, and the Week #3 tune-up game win against Washington. Baltimore plays in a winnable division and their schedule features only five teams that made the playoffs last season. I think that Flacco will improve as the season progresses as he becomes familiar with new OC Gary Kubiak's offense.
The Giants are the pretenders in this group. The Giants 5-0 SU mark is noteworthy, but the wins were in a less than impressive manner and often facilitated by the play of reserves. New York has a new OC in Ben McAdoo, and unlike in Baltimore, it seemed as if the Giants starters were having a hard time grasping the system. QB Eli Manning and the first-string offense led 19 drives in the five games, seven of those resulted in three-and-outs, and Eli completed just 48.8% of his passes. In the last five years, 10 teams have registered and undefeated NFL preseason and only one of those teams has gone on to win its division. With the NFC East likely being a one-bid division, that doesn't bode well for the Giants.
#3 Preseason playing time is often a precarious thing and handled differently by different coaches and teams. It seems that, often times, the more valuable a player is to his team, the less he will play, this is especially true of offensive skill position players. So, with that in mind, is there anyone in the league more valuable than Adrian Peterson? Over the last three preseason’s, Peterson has played exactly two snaps and been given ZERO carries. By comparison, just this year, Peyton Manning was on the field for 88 snaps and Tom Brady for 31. There is little doubt that, regardless of what others may think, the Vikings organization feels that Peterson is the player in the league that means the most to his team.
#4 I was not a big believer in the Eagles hiring of former Oregon Ducks HC Chip Kelly, however, I may be changing my mind. I was unsure if Kelly's systems and up-tempo style would translate well to the NFL level but it seems as if the groundwork for success is being laid. At least, it seems, the Eagles scheme has been making stars of the skill position players who run wild in it. RB LeSean McCoy was already a solid player but LY's emergence of QB Nick Foles and WR Riley Cooper seem to be directly related to system they play in. The Eagles system is quarterback friendly and Philadelphia got the best overall QB play of any team in the preseason. The Eagles played four QB's and their average QBR's are as follows: Nick Foles: 83.9, Matt Barkley 86.4, Mark Sanchez 103.8, Greg Kinne 120.5. It's interesting to note that as the quality of the defenders on the field went down, the Eagles QBR ratings increased dramatically. QB's Sanchez and Kinne spent much of their time on the field against backups while playing with backups themselves. This would seem to say that the Eagles scheme and play-calling had a lot to do with the effectiveness of the offense. This may be an interesting handicapping and prop-betting note for QB play when the Eagles face weaker defensive teams or teams missing defensive starters.
#5 Are the Carolina Panthers going to regress? Carolina had an encouraging season last year, going 12-4 and winning the NFC South, the Panthers seemed poised to become real contenders in the loaded NFC, but the preseason seems to have hinted at some problems than began in the offseason. Carolina lost both of its' starting wide-receivers’ from last season, Steve Smith is now a Raven and Brandon LaFell is in New England, so the Panthers are breaking in a new set of wideouts including rookie Kelvin Benjamin. In their Week #3 tune-up game at New England, Benjamin was the only WR targeted more than twice and the passing game accounted for just 208 yards. Quarterback Cam Newton is recovering from offseason surgery and, quite frankly, does not look fully recovered. The coaching staff has already said that early in the season he will not be allowed to run the read-option and Newton has not shown that he can stay in the pocket and beat NFL defenses.
In his limited preseason action, Cam consistently overthrew WR's and the Panthers first-string offense sputtered. A slow start from the gate may be crippling for this team as the middle of their schedule features the toughest five game stretch in the division: at Cincinnati, at Green Bay, versus Seattle, versus New Orleans, at Philadelphia. Carolina may have a telling matchup in the regular season opener at Tampa Bay, as they opened as two-point favorites, but now find themselves at one-point 'dogs.
#6 Redskins owner Dan Snyder may be headed for a debate that will stir up as many emotions and divergent opinions as the one over his franchise's name. Which quarterback actually gives his team the best chance to win? Just the "eyeball test" will tell you that Robert Griffin III is not the player (yet) that he was prior to his knee injury and the Washington offense has struggled thusly. Backup QB Kirk Cousins has played well in relief of RGIII and his pocket passing skills seem better suited for the NFL game and new HC Jay Gruden's offense. For the preseason, Griffin went 13-20, 141 yards, 0 TD's and 2 INT's. Cousins went 35-54, 370 yards, 4 TD's and 1 INT. Everyone involved with the Redskins is saying the right thing but I believe it's interesting to note that Gruden decided not to play Cousins at all in preseason Week #4.
Of the 32 NFL teams, only six decided not to play their current starter or backup during the preseason finale. Cousins would have been facing mostly second and third stringers and, in his absence, QB Colt McCoy threw for 321 yards and 2 TD's with a QBR of 105.7. Adding some or a majority of those numbers (McCoy also threw 2 INT's in the opponents end zone!) to Cousins stats would have created a disparity that might have stirred things up even more. Washington added WR DeSean Jackson and Gruden is known as an offensive coach, so expectations are high for the Redskins offense and that puts even more pressure on RGIII to produce. If he underperforms, is there a chance that we could see Cousins in an increased role? Despite the denials, I say, yes.
#7 PENALTIES!!! Flying yellow flags were a major topic of discussion for the entire preseason. With the referees focus on illegal contact, hand checking, and generally anything that involves touching a potential pass catcher, we saw the total number of penalties per game and penalties that resulted in first downs skyrocket. With "defensive holding" resulting in just a five-yard penalty but also an automatic FD, we saw a plethora of drives kept alive via penalty. The NFL has shown an inclination lately to create rule changes that favor the offense and protect offensive players, many say this is an effort to create a more "fan friendly" higher scoring product. That is certainly being played out in the betting arena as the data from the last few years says so.
Average Opening Total From 2011-2014:
•Week #1, 2011 - 40.5 --- 7 of 16 games that were bet UP from the opener
•Week #1, 2012 - 44.1 --- 7 of 16 games that were bet UP from the opener
•Week #1, 2013 - 45.5 --- 9 of 16 games that were bet UP from the opener
•Week #1, 2014 - 45.9 --- 7 of 16 games that were bet UP from the opener (as of 9-1-14)
Of course, matchups, weather, coaching changes, etc. have an effect on these numbers but just this simple example can show you that the rule changes have effected scoring. It's interesting to note that oddsmakers are seemingly taking the stance that the penalty calling will revert to more normal numbers once the regular season begins, as the increase in the average opening number for this year is up just 0.4 points. Bettors seem to be taking a similar overall stance, the percentage of games being bet up from the opener is in line with recent years and the major upward mover, the San Francisco/Dallas game, is likely due to awareness of the Cowboys defensive struggles and not an expectation of a penalty bonanza. I'd advise bettors who like any Over’s in Week #1 to get them in prior to Thursday's kickoff game.
The Green Bay/Seattle confrontation seems the perfect fodder to see if the penalty increase will carry over into the 2014 regular season. This total has been bet up and we should see plenty of pass attempts from two good offenses featuring All-Pro quarterback's. Seattle's secondary is known for being both talented and physical, if the referees are limiting the contact and throwing flags on Sherman and Co. on opening night on Thursday at CenturyLink Field, it's likely an indicator that may carry over for all of week #1. Just a heads up.
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Quick-Hits - Week #1
Systems Analyst James Vogel
Thursday, 9/4/2014
•Packers @ Seahawks-- Seahawks won/covered 10 of their last 11 home openers, including last five in row; under is 11-1-1 in their last 13 home openers (91.6%). Home side won seven of last eight series matchups; Packers are 2-3 in last five games at CenturyLink Field, losing last visit in 2012 on awful call by replacement refs on last play of game. Green Bay lost 14-12/34-28 in last two road openers; they allowed 30+ points in last three series openers. Packers had been 17-7-1 as road dog under McCarthy (70.8%) until last year, when they were 1-3, 1-2 with sub quarterback’s playing. Since ‘07, Pack is 11-6 as non-divisional road dogs. Since ‘05, Seahawks are 31-16-1 as home favorites, 12-5 under Carroll, 6-3 versus non-division foes.
Sunday, 9/7/2014
•Saints @ Falcons-- Saints won six of last seven meetings in this underrated NFC South rivalry, with five of last six wins by 6 or less points; they’ve won six of last eight visits to the Georgia Dome, with last four wins by 4 or less points. New Orleans covered only one of last seven road openers (3-4 SU), with five of last six going over total. Atlanta won last six home openers and nine of last 10 (9-1 vs. spread). Saints are 6-4 in last ten divisional road games, with only one win by more than 4 points- it’s been four years since they won a NFC South road game by more than 7 points. Falcons are 11-6-1 versus spread (64.7%) in divisional home matchups under Smith; they were -7 in turnovers LY, after being +35 the three years before that.
•Vikings @ Rams-- Zimmer’s first game as head coach comes versus veteran Ram defense that has 105 sacks in two years under Fisher (#1/#3 in NFL) and upgraded at defensive coordinator this year with Gregg Williams back on job. Frazier was 8-5 versus spread as a non-divisional road underdog in three years as Minnesota head coach; Vikings are 2-8 in last ten road openers, losing last four (1-2-1 vs. spread); they won last two meetings with Rams 38-10/36-22, but none of these coaches, few of these players took part in those games. Rams lost six of last seven openers, but are 2-0 in home openers under Fisher; St Louis is 4-3 as home favorite under Fisher- they were +8 in turnovers in 2013, just second time in last seven years they had positive ratio.
•Browns @ Steelers-- Pittsburgh has treated Cleveland like a pinata, winning 19 of 20 meetings, last three by 14-16-13 points; Browns lost last nine visits to
Heinz Field, last six by 11+ points- they scored two touchdowns’ on 24 drives in two games versus Pitt last year, but now there is new coach/GM in Cleveland; they were 3-0 when Hoyer started in 2013; he passed for 321 yards in only road start, at Minnesota. Steelers are 10-8-1 as divisional home favorites under Tomlin; they went 8-8 straight-up in each of last two years, are -27 in turnovers last three seasons, so there is pressure on them. Steelers won 10 of last 11 home openers, covering seven of last nine, with last five staying under the total.
•Jaguars @ Eagles-- Philadelphia is just 9-23 versus spread at home (28.1%) the last four years, 9-17 as home favorite, 0-2 when laying double digits; they won 28-3 in Jacksonville four years ago, its first series win in four games; Jaguars won 13-6 here in 2006, their only visit to Lincoln Financial Field. Eagles lost six of last eight home openers, winning by 1-35 points (0-5 vs. spread in last five); their last two home openers were decided by total of four points. Jacksonville lost five of last six road openers (2-4 vs. spread); seven of their last ten road openers stayed under total. Jaguars are 5-15 versus spread (25.0%) in last 20 matchups versus NFC teams; Eagles are 7-13 in their last 20 versus AFC squads. Over last five years, Week #1 double digit favorites are 3-4 against the spread.
•Raiders @ Jets-- Jets blocked punt for touchdown, led 20-3 at half in 37-27 (-3) win over Oakland last year, Raiders 4th loss in row at MetLife Stadium, and 11th win for home side in last 14 series meetings. Raiders started 0-1 in ten of last eleven seasons; they’ve lost three of last four road openers, losing by 25-22-4 points. New York won four of last five home openers, with three of last four decided by 3 or less points- they’re 5-16 versus spread in last 21 home openers (23.8%), but covered last two. Raiders are 10-15 as dogs under Allen, 7-8 on road (2-14 SU). Jets are 12-16-1 as single digit favorites under Ryan. Over is 10-4-1 in Oakland’s last 15 road openers, 2-4 in Jets’ last six home openers.
•Bengals @ Ravens-- Ravens had only three offensive touchdowns’ on 29 drives versus Bengals last year, all on drives of 53 or less yards; they were outgained by 345 yards in two series meetings in 2013, but now Cincinnati has two new coordinators (Zimmer/Gruden are HC‘s), while Kubiak is upgrade over Caldwell as offensive coordinator for Baltimore offense. Home side won eight of last nine series meetings; Bengals lost last four visits to M&T Bank Stadium, by 6-7-31-3 points. Baltimore won its last nine home openers, covering seven, with all nine victories by 7+ points. Cincinnati started 0-1 five of last six years; they lost five of last seven road openers. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Raven openers, 5-0 in Bengals’ last five road openers.
•Bills @ Bears-- Buffalo signed Bears' old backup quarterback Jordan Palmer last week, does that give them edge here? They're 4-15-1 as road underdog last three years (21.0%); they’re 0-5 at Soldier Field, with four losses by 17+ points- their last visit here was a 40-7 loss in 2006. Chicago is 7-4 overall in series, with last meeting 22-19 Bear win in Toronto in 2010. Bills lost eight of last ten road openers, covering one of last four- they’re 6-5 versus spread as a dog in road openers. Chicago won last five home openers (1-3-1 vs. spread in last five as favorite in HO). Since 2007, Bears are 13-22-3 as home favorites (37.1%), 1-3-2 under Trestman, but they’re 5-1-2 in last eight games versus AFC foes. Over last nine years, Buffalo is 12-21-3 versus spread against NFC teams. Over is 4-1 in Buffalo’s last five road openers, 3-0 in Bears’ last three home openers.
•Redskins @ Texans-- Houston went 2-14 in 2013, losing last 14 games after going 24-10 in previous 34, so they changed coaches, traded for Mallett Sunday, so current quarterback Fitzpatrick is lame duck starter; Texans won last four home openers, covering three, scoring 30+ points in all four- six of their last nine home openers stayed under total. Washington lost five of last six road openers, but is 6-3 versus spread as dogs in road openers, with four of last five going over total. Since 2009, Texans are 5-12-3 versus spread (29.4%) when facing NFC foe- they were 0-4 as home favorites last season, after being 20-14 the six years before that. Redskins won 31-15 in only visit to Reliant Stadium in 2006; Texans won in overtime in last series meeting, in 2010. Jay Gruden is rookie NFL head coach, but had 93-61 record as a HC in Arena Football, winning two titles.
•Titans @ Chiefs-- Ken Whisenhunt was 16-20-2 as road dog with Arizona, but 4-0-1 versus spread in road openers there; Titans won two of last three visits to Arrowhead, in series where visitor won four of last five meetings. 11-5 Chiefs were +18 in turnovers last year, after 2-14 Chiefs were -24 year before; regression is expected. Since 2007, Kansas City is 5-19-1 versus spread as home favorite (20.8%); Reid covered once in his last eight home openers, Chiefs are 1-6-1 versus spread in their last eight. Tennessee covered five of its last seven road openers. Under is 18-3-2, 85.7% in Chiefs’ last 23 home openers, 14-3 in Titans’ last 17 road openers. Chiefs (-2.5) won 26-17 at Tennessee in 2013, scoring touchdown on special teams fumble, scoring only one TD, three FG’s on seven drives in Titan red zone.
•Patriots @ Dolphins-- Miami installed new, faster offense this offseason; Patriots played Eagles in preseason, who run that very offense. Dolphins lost seven of last eight series meetings, upsetting New England 24-20 (+1) in Week #15 last season; Patriots won five of last seven visits to Sun Life Stadium, with four of five victories by 14+ points. New England won first meeting nine of last ten years; they’re 6-2 in last eight road openers (5-3 vs. spread). Dolphins lost six of last eight openers, but are 2-0 in home openers under Philbin and 5-1-1 versus spread as home dogs. Miami is 9-14-1 versus spread in division games (39.1%) the last four years. Over last decade, Patriots are 16-8-2 as road favorite in division games, 57-31-5 as single digit favorite overall. Dolphins last five home openers went over total.
•Panthers @ Buccaneers-- Carolina started last five seasons 0-1; they scored 10-7 points in losing last two season openers. Panthers lost last five road openers (0-5 vs. spread)- they were favored last two years. Lovie Smith went 29-19 his last three years coaching Bears; playoff losses got him fired,, but he is a huge upgrade at head coach for Buccaneers, who had only one touchdown on 20 drives versus Carolina in 2013, with three turnovers, along with eight 3/outs. Panthers swept series 31-13/27-6, outrushing Tampa Bay 282-114. Carolina won three of its last five visits to Raymond James Stadium. Bucs covered three of last four games as home underdog in home openers; they’re 5-4 straight-up in last nine. Five of last six Carolina road openers went over total.
•49ers @ Cowboys-- 49ers are 19-5-2 as single digit favorite (79.1%) under Harbaugh, 10-4 as road favorites, 3-0 in season openers, winning by 16-8-6 points, while scoring 33-30-34 points. Dallas usually opens on road; since 1988, they’re 5-3 straight-up when season opener is at home- they won last three home openers by total of 13 points. Cowboys covered last five tries as dog in home opener, but last such encounter was in 2002. Since 2006, Dallas is 6-2 as home underdog, 4-1 under Garrett. Cowboys won last three series meetings by 3-13-3 points, but haven’t met since 2011, Harbaugh’s second game with 49ers. Five of last seven Dallas home openers went over total. 49ers are just 6-7-1 versus spread on carpet under Harbaugh.
•Colts @ Broncos-- Denver was 6-0 last year before losing 39-33 at Indianapolis in Week #7; they had 12 penalties, three turnovers (-2) and ran for just 64 yards in game they trailed 26-14 at half. Colts had 11-yard edge in field position; only one of their four touchdowns was on drive longer than 50 yards. Colts lost three of last four road openers, with all three losses by 10+ points; the last six years, they’re 0-6 versus spread in Week #1 games. Manning is 9-5 versus spread in home openers; Denver is 22-3 straight-up in last 25 home openers, covering four of last five; this figures to be emotional day, with declining health of Bronco owner Bowlen. Over is 5-1-1 in Denver’s last seven Mile High openers.
Monday, 9/8/2014
•Giants @ Lions--Giants started 0-1 last three years; they’re lost three of last four road openers, with 12 of last 14 going over total. Detroit lost six of last seven games last season, one of which was 23-20 (-9) Week #16 debacle to Giants; New York’s two touchdowns were on 49-yard drive and defensive score. Lions outrushed them 148-41, still lost; that doesn’t happen a lot. Giants won last three series meetings by total of 17 points; they won last five visits to Motor City. Detroit has new coaches, Giants have new offense that struggled to gel in preseason. Lions won last three home openers, scoring 36.3 ppg; they’re 7-1-1 versus spread in last nine openers, with last four going over total. Last three years, Giants are 11-6 as road underdogs.
•Chargers @ Cardinals-- San Diego is 9-3 in last dozen series meetings, winning last three by 8-7-31 points; they won three of four visits to University of Phoenix Stadium, but haven’t been in desert since 2002, before dome opened. Chargers are 8-3-1 as road underdogs last two years; they covered three of four versus NFC in 2013, after being 0-8 previous two seasons. Chargers won four of last five Week #1 road openers; five of their last seven road openers went over total. Cardinals were 5-1-1 as favorites in Arians’ first year, after covering only five of previous 20 games when favored. Arizona won six of last seven home openers (5-2 vs. spread); they‘re 6-1-1 versus spread in Week #1 last eight years.
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Gridiron Trends - Week #1
•NY GIANTS are 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games against NFC North division opponents since 1992.
The average score was NY GIANTS 20.8, OPPONENT 18.5.
•NEW ORLEANS is 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 23.9, OPPONENT 18.6.
•BALTIMORE is 25-5 (+22.2 Units) against the money line in home games in September games since 1992.
The average score was BALTIMORE 24.6, OPPONENT 15.2.
•DETROIT is 23-44 (-25.4 Units) against the 1rst half line as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points versus the first half line since 1992.
The average score was DETROIT 11.7, OPPONENT 10.7.
•PHILADELPHIA is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total as a favorite versus the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 10.7, OPPONENT 8.7.
•MIKE SMITH is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of ATLANTA.
The average score was SMITH 30.7, OPPONENT 18.7.
Situational Analysis Of The Week
•Play On - Any team versus the money line (CAROLINA) - first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 6 or more wins in last 8 games, good team from last season (60% to 75%) playing a terrible team from last year (<=25%).
(28-2 since 1983.) (93.3%, +24.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -155
The average score in these games was: Team 29.3, Opponent 18.3 (Average point differential = +11)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0, +3 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (11-0, +11 units).
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