STATSYSTEMS SPORTS 2014 NFL PREVIEW
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________
Note from Stan 'The Man: This is one National Football League Annual that will get plenty of use during the 2014 season, and is something every football handicapper should own. Easy for me to say, right? Although I obviously agree 100 percent with that sentiment, they’re not my words; they’re words taken from a review of this annual publication from the leading Sports Betting Outlets across the Globe!
We design this publication to be a handy resource to which you can constantly refer throughout the college and pro football seasons. Back again this year is all of the popular insight, information, analysis and statistics to which our thousands of loyal and dedicated readers have become accustomed. Our capsules for all 157 teams—32 pro and 125 college—include everything from past years’ game logs and situational records to the upcoming season’s. Outplay Factor and Power Ratings, both of which are generated by proprietary StatSystemsSports.net formulas and have proven to be great long-term handicapping tools.
We admittedly have our work cut out for us to match 2012's remarkably accurate predictions: Not only did we correctly call all four AFC division winners, but we came within one point of calling the exact margin of victory in Super Bowl XLVII. (That’s right, we predicted in July that the Baltimore Ravens would win Super Bowl XLVII by two points.) Not to mention our HUGE *6-Star Release with the Ravens Plus (+135 to +140) depending on where you shop on the Money-Line.
While we’re confident that this publication will provide you with a solid head start to your 2014 football handicapping season, our efforts certainly don’t stop here. Our team of Experts spends countless hours during the summer, fall and winter breaking down stats, trends and inside information to offer up keen betting insight all season long. Our world-renowned StatSystems Sports Reports, along with our very popular StatSheets take the analysis another few steps further, offering up remarkably valuable information for every college and pro game.
Two features you’ll want to be sure to check out in our Reports are Situational Team Power Trends, which uncover situations where a team outperforms or underperforms their normal level of play; and Super Situations, which uncover conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. The Super Situations are not team specific—the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.)—and their remarkable success rate over the years speaks for itself. Another way to get access to this valuable information is by ordering our StatSystems Sports Weekly Newsletter @ 570-828-4091.
Another one of the offerings from our family of handicapping products that help you expand your bankroll is the Best Bets we’ll be offering throughout the football season with college and pro picks from our staff of human handicappers, who combined for a 70% success rate (28-12-4) this past NFL postseason. You’ll also get access to the renowned Stan's Forecaster, which has proven to be an extremely successful long-term handicapping tool. By weighing several key factors, including recent statistical averages, schedule strength and home-field advantage.
'The Man's Forecaster is most accurate once a season is underway, as evident by a remarkable ATS success rate of 71.5% (123-49-6) on all 2013 NFL regular-season games played between September 25 and the end of the calendar year. Stan's Forecaster ended the 2013 NFL season (including the postseason) with a success rate of better than 68.6%, and it ended 2013 with a 66.4% win percentage that included a 69.7% success rate in the postseason.
As you go through this issue and check out our offerings at StatSystemsSports.net, you’ll notice that almost every bit of information in this National Football League Preview, and at our WebSite is dedicated to handicapping football. We always urge our readers to avoid confusing themselves by handicapping football with other publications that take a more main-stream view of the sport. They simply won’t have what it takes to help you succeed as a football bettor.
"So with that in mind, we’ll proudly put our products and StatSystems Sports head-tohead against any competition when it comes to making you a more knowledgeable and profitable handicapper!"
"Have a profitable season" -Stan 'The Man!
__________________________________
Ranking The Divisions
Systems Analyst James Vogel
When evaluating the prospects of National Football League teams in the futures market, there are few factors more important than the division they play in. Because every team plays every other team in their division twice, divisional strength can have a massive impact on how a season turns out. A weak division can lift a mediocre team to double-digit wins thanks to hollow victories. A very tough division, on the other hand, can hide a strong team behind an average record. As we sit here awaiting the start of the next NFL season, here is how the divisions currently rank from most competitive to least.
#1 NFC West: It’s hard to argue that there is a stronger division than one that includes two of the top three Super Bowl favorites. It’s not just Seattle and San Francisco that make this so challenging, though. Arizona won 10 games last year, and the Cardinals are well coached and possess enough talent to do it again. St. Louis is on the right path and should be better than the seven wins they had last year. Any team in the division could conceivably win any divisional matchup without making national headlines. It’s a war that will last all season long.
#2 NFC North: Green Bay is viewed as the strong favorite here. I’m not really buying it. I’m not certain that they are as good as people think. More significantly, I like the offseason that both the Lions and Bears had and expect them to both have strong years. Minnesota is a total pushover that is in for a very long year, but the other three teams are very strong and well-matched. Wins will not be easy in the division for any of them.
#3 AFC North: In the previous two divisions the issue has been a collection of strong teams, The problem here is that there are four teams, and we don’t know if any of them are going to be any good. Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Baltimore all have some upside but also big questions at keys spots that make it hard to really trust them. Cleveland probably will be lousy, and the loss of Josh Gordon really hurts, but you can never really know what the whole Johnny Football mystique turns into until he starts to play. You could tell me that any of the four teams was going to finish in any of four spots in the division and I probably wouldn’t argue with you. The AFC North defines parity — and not in the good way.
#4 NFC East: If Chip Kelly is as advertised then the Eagles should be able to win this division. It won’t be easy, though. Dallas hasn’t dominated the offseason, and they have made a science of underachieving, but they have some decent talent and should win more than they lose. RGIII and the Redskins can’t be as pathetic as they were last year. Eli Manning and the Giants don’t seem to be in a great place, but they don’t stay down for long and are proven winners. If the Eagles falter than any team could potentially pick up the pieces.
#5 AFC West: Denver should be strong again — as long as Peyton Manning’s neck doesn’t get reinjured. They are the Super Bowl favorites. San Diego is a team I have a lot of optimism for after a promising first year under a new coach who, mercifully, isn’t Norv Turner. Kansas City isn’t getting a lot of love but could easily build on the momentum built last year under Andy Reid. Oakland is Oakland, and that’s not a good thing — but it helps the records of the other three teams in the division. The teams in this division are in three clear tiers, but things could get interesting.
#6 NFC South: If you had asked me two or three years ago I would have guessed that this would have been by far the toughest division, but it just hasn’t worked out that way. New Orleans is the class of the division, and the gap seems large. Carolina is coming off a huge season but responded by seemingly deciding to play a season without wide receivers. Terrible offseason. Atlanta had an epically terrible year last year and responded by standing pat on the coaching staff. They improved on paper, but they had heading into the season last year, too, so it’s hard to know what to expect. Tampa Bay got lost and destroyed all organizational momentum. They made their best coaching decision in a long time, but who knows if it will be enough. It’s one team towering above a disappointing pack here.
#7 AFC South: If the Colts don’t win this division — by daylight — then they need to go right back to the drawing board. The Jaguars have a new quarterback and a whole lot of work left to do. Houston has defensive talent, but their new coach doesn’t seem to care about having a quarterback, and that could be a real issue. Tennessee is making big changes as well, and nothing is certain in the short term. It is not going to be a banner year for the division.
#8 AFC East: Ladies and gentlemen, your 2014-15 AFC East champs — the New England Patriots. Buffalo is probably the second best team in the division — and that really says all you need to say. The Jets are a circus. Miami doesn’t inspire confidence. This is a messy, messy division right now. Stop me if you have heard this one before — the Patriots will emerge with a record that will build postseason hype because they will sweep their division.
Five Hot NFL Bets Ready To Rebound In 2014
Systems Analyst William Stillman
As the calendar turns the page to the month of July, we are just weeks away from the start of 2014 National Football League training camps. Every year, in a league that has become known for its parity, there are always a few teams that rise from the ranks to win their division after missing the postseason the year before. Using StatSystemsSports.net 2014 NFL futures odds as a guide, here’s a look at five teams that have the best shot to pull off this feat this season.
•Pittsburgh Steelers: Odds to win the AFC North 2/1
The Steelers are coming off back-to-back eight-win seasons that have kept them out of the playoffs both years. The last time this non-playoff streak reached three years was all the way back in 2000 when they went 9-7 but still missed the postseason. With Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback, running an offense that added some additional weapons in running back LaGarrette Blount and wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, this unit could be in for a dramatic turnaround from the one that was ranked 20th in yards per game last season.
•Houston Texans: Odds to win the AFC South 5/2
Houston’s unexpected fall from first to worst was one of the most shocking developments in the NFL last year. While many experts wanted to pin the blame on former Texans’ quarterback Matt Schaub, the entire team had a hand in its current 14-game losing streak after a 2-0 start. The good news is that the stage is set for a rise towards the top of the AFC South with quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick getting a chance to revitalize his career after getting cut by Tennessee. The real reason for optimism is the addition of defensive end Jadeveon Clowney with the first overall pick in the draft, which will only make a good defense all that much better.
•Atlanta Falcons: Odds to win the NFC South 13/4
The Falcons were another team that fell off the face of the earth in 2013 with a record of 4-12 after three straight seasons of double-digit wins. They still have Matt Ryan at quarterback, and the addition of free agents such as guard Gabe Carimi and wide receiver Devin Hester should help this offense get back on track after ranking 20th in the NFL in scoring. Atlanta also used seven of its nine draft picks to address a defense that was ranked 27th in points allowed and 28th in yards allowed. The last time the Falcons won just four games was in 2007, and they went onto to win 11 games the following season under then first-year head coach Mike Smith.
•Chicago Bears: Odds to win the NFC North 11/4
The race for the NFC North title came down to the wire with Green Bay squeezing out the top spot at 8-7-1 while the Bears went 8-8. So it will probably only take a couple of additional victories to claim this year’s crown. Chicago made one of the biggest splashes in free agency with the signing of former Oakland defensive end Lamarr Houston, and it also added defensive end Jared Allen from rival Minnesota to address a defense that fell to 30th in the league in both points (29.9) and average yards allowed (394.6). There are no pressing issues on the other side of the ball with an offense that scored an average of 27.8 points a game - second-highest in the NFL. This will be offensive guru’s Marc Trestmen’s second season at the helm as the Bears head coach, so there could be bigger and better things from this unit under veteran quarterback Jay Cutler in 2014.
•New York Giants: Odds to win the NFC East 3/1
The Giants dug themselves into a hole they could never climb out of in 2013 by losing their first six games under the weight of a multitude of turnovers. Quarterback Eli Manning cleaned up his act after throwing 15 interceptions in those first six games with just 13 picks the rest of the way, and New York responded with a 7-3 record in its final 10 games. Assuming that the Giants avoid another disastrous start in 2014, it looks like 10 wins could easily win the NFC East this season. This is still a team with a veteran head coach in Tom Coughlin and a veteran quarterback in Manning that have produced two Super Bowl titles since 2006, so winning the division is a goal that is well within reach in 2014.
________________________________________________________
Featured Player Stats & Trends
Systems Analyst Larry Hertner
•Top QB/WR Combination Trend
System Analysis: Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall are 0-21-2 ATS (-9.0 ppg) in their careers after a game where Cutler had at least 20 completions and 1 or 2 touchdown passes, if at least three of the completions went to Marshall.
One of the exciting things about the ability to run player trends using our Huge NFL database is being able to do so in combination. The time where this will generally make the most sense is when looking at a quarterback and one of his favorite pass catching targets. For instance, it is easy to isolate games where both Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski had big games.
When you think of a QB and his favorite target, a combination that should immediately come to mind is Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall. When the situation warrants heavy passing, Cutler is known for force feeding the ball to his go-to receiver in Marshall. Cutler and Marshall have played together in two stops, and both are reflected with this trend. What this trend isolates is a game where Cutler had a large number of completions and an average number of TD throws, if Marshall was at least modestly involved in receiving his targets. For Cutler, zoning in on Marshall can be is bad going forward. Watch for this trend to be active several times in 2014, after seven such occasions in 2013.
•Player-Based Trends: QBS
There is no player that controls a game more than the quarterback. They are the only player on the field with the ball in their hands in half of the plays every game. As such, it makes sense that quarterbacks have the best of the player-based trends, and that their performance in one game or against a certain team would have a great bearing on future games. Below are 10 quarterback trends from some of the elite signal callers in the NFL.
-- Tom Brady is 11-0 ATS (10.7 ppg) since 2004 after a game where he completed less than 50% of his passes.
-- Drew Brees is 11-0-1 ATS (10.4 ppg) in his career in Sunday games, following a game where he threw less than 30 passes and had at least one interception.
-- Jay Cutler is 0-9-2 ATS (-3.7 ppg) since 2011 after a game where he threw at least 33 passes and had less than 28 completions.
-- Robert Griffin III is 6-0 ATS (9.2 ppg) in his career after a game where he had 10-15 completions.
-- Andrew Luck is 15-0-1 ATS (8.6 ppg) in his career after a Sunday game where he threw between 35 and 50 passes and completed over 45% of them.
-- Aaron Rodgers is 6-0 ATS (13.3 ppg) since November 2008 with at least full rest following a game where he did not throw a TD pass.
-- Tony Romo is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 ppg) since December 2007 if not an underdog, coming off a game where he completed at least 73% of his passes.
-- Matt Stafford is 0-10 ATS (-8.3 ppg) in his career after a loss where they scored at least 14 points and he had 27-36 completions.
-- Russell Wilson is 10-0 ATS (10.3 ppg) in his career after a game where he completed at least 72% of his passes.
-- Philip Rivers is 13-0 ATS (15.4 ppg) since October 25, 2009 after a game where he threw 33-39 passes and they had between 210 and 380 team passing yards.
•Player-Based Trends: RBS
While they don’t affect a game to the same degree as a quarterback, running backs are important to the outcome, and can often be the key player in 20-25 plays a game. However, they are players that see their usage and success vary widely from one game to another, and can be very matchup dependent. In particular, previous usage volume is interesting in regards to running backs’ performance. Below are 10 running back trends from some of the top ball carriers in the NFL.
-- Jamaal Charles is 0-7 ATS (-11.4 ppg) when between a four-point favorite and nine-point dog, after a game where he ran for at least 110 yards.
-- Matt Forte is 0-7 ATS (-4.9 ppg) since November 2012 after a game where he had less than 15 carries.
-- Arian Foster is 0-8 ATS (-7.4 ppg) when he had between four and 14 rushes last game.
-- Chris Johnson is 0-11-2 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since December 26, 2010 after a game where he had at least 20 rushes for between 71 and 189 yards.
-- Maurice Jones-Drew is 0-7 ATS (-10.2 ppg) in his career following a game where he ran for over 120 yards and had a rush of at least 39 yards.
-- Marshawn Lynch is 12-0 ATS (13.1 ppg) since 2011 the week after a game where he ran for at least 113 yards.
-- Ryan Mathews is 8-0 ATS (15.5 ppg) since December 2011 with less than 10 days rest after a 100 yard rushing game.
-- LeSean McCoy is 0-10 ATS (-15.2 ppg) since 2011 when he had more than 80 rushing yards of at least 425 total yards of offense from his team last game.
-- Demarco Murray is 0-7 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since November 20, 2011 after a game where he had more than 125 total yards.
-- CJ Spiller is 0-7 ATS (-8.1 ppg) after a game where he had more than 15 carries for between 45 and 135 yards.
•Player-Based Trends: WRS
While wide receivers don’t get the volume of touches as quarterbacks or running backs do, they are some of the most skilled players in the game. Additionally, they have unique big play ability. It is also a position with some of the clear-cut top players at the position from year-to-year. Below are 10 wide receiver trends from some of the best pass catchers in the NFL.
-- Dwayne Bowe is 9-0 ATS (11.4 ppg) in his career coming off an away loss as no more than a 14 point dog where he had at least six receptions.
-- Antonio Brown is 9-0 ATS (8.3 ppg) in his career after having more than 90 and less than 150 receiving yards last game.
-- Eric Decker is 9-0 ATS (13.5 ppg) with at least five days rest coming off a game where he had at least 90 receiving yards.
-- AJ Green is 10-0 ATS (13.5 ppg) since November 2012 with 4-8 days rest after a game where they had at least 90 receiving yards.
-- Vincent Jackson is 7-0 ATS (11.1 ppg) in his career after a game where he had at least one catch but less than 15 yards.
-- Andre Johnson is 0-10 ATS (-10.3 ppg) since 2008 after a game where he had at least 10 catches for at least 143 yards.
-- Jeremy Maclin is 0-10 ATS (-15.1 ppg) in his career coming off a home game where he had at least six receptions.
-- Brandon Marshall is 0-14-1 ATS (-12.3 ppg) in his career following a game where he had at least 10 catches in a game where he had less than 12 days rest.
-- Jordy Nelson is 8-0 ATS (11.8 ppg) after a game where he had just one catch for 18 or fewer yards.
-- Calvin Johnson is 0-12-1 ATS (-7.3 ppg) in his career past week one when he caught at least seven passes against in a loss the last time he faced this team. Note: Active weeks 5, 7, 8 and 14 in 2014.
'BETCHA DIDN'T KNOW'
Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor
No Place Like Home : In an era of parity, it is rare that any team should be made more than a TD underdog at home. In the more modern salary cap era, teams are bunched closer together. It stands to reason then, that this betting system would be even better over the more recent time frame. That is indeed the case, with home underdogs of more than seven points going 121-83-2 ATS since 1997.
Other Things To Consider
-- Factoring in three points each way for the home and road teams, it stands to reason a home team as more than a TD underdog is comparable to a road team that is more than a 13-point dog. Road dogs of more than 13 points have been solid as well, going 122-98-2 ATS (55.5%).
-- This system has been a very strong 7-1 ATS during the opening week of the season. This makes sense as if there is ever a time where not enough is known about a team to make them such big underdogs, it is during week one. That carries on through the early season, going 53-34-1 ATS during the first six weeks of the season.
-- Teams coming off a huge loss have dominated this system. These big home dogs off a loss by at least 27 points are 32-12-1 ATS.
-- It is harder to sneak up on a team when it is a primetime game. These huge home dogs in non-Sunday and Sunday night games are an average 27-25 ATS.
Summary: In most cases, bettors should avoid the allure of betting heavily on home dog for that reason alone. However, when that team is an underdog by more than a touchdown, it is a green light to play on that team.
___________________________________________________
September Trends To Watch
Systems Analyst Todd Smith
With Week #4 of the National Football League preseason coming to a close on Thursday night, and with all 16 teams hitting the gridiron. That means it is now September, and with it an array of NFL handicapping team trends are suddenly in play for fans and sports junkies alike. Listed below are some of the best and worst team performances during the opening month of the year. Team breakdowns include records at home, away, as a favorite, as an underdog, and in division games. Note: All results are ATS (Against The Spread) unless noted otherwise.
Home Teams
•Keep An Eye On (Good): The NFC North's Detroit Lions have been fast starters at home with a 27-16 ATS record (62.7%) in the opening month of the season, and will play host to the New York football Giants (9/8) and divisional foe Green Bay Packers (9/21).
•Keep An Eye On (Bad): Here we have home teams that frustrate wagering home fans. Cincinnati is the worst of the bunch at a miserable 13-25 versus the number (26.0%) and they will face the Atlanta Falcons along with the Tennessee Titans in Week’s #2 and #3.
--New head coach Jay Gruden will attempt to break the negative cycle in our Nation’s Capital as Washington sits 15-26 against the spread, just 36.5 percent when the Jacksonville Jaguars (9/14) and the New York Giants (9/25) arrive to face the team without an approved nickname any more.
--The Arizona Cardinals will have two shots to improve on their money-burning 13-22 against the spread record (37.1%) with the AFC West San Diego Chargers in the desert on the opening Monday night of the 2014 campaign and division rival San Francisco 13 days later.
Away Teams
•Bad: It has not mattered if Sam Bradford has been hurt or not or any other Rams quarterback for that matter, St. Louis has been a superior Play Against road team at 14-29 ATS, 32.5%. Because of an early bye on this year’s schedule there is just one chance to bet against the Rams: at Raymond James Stadium versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9/14).
•Keep An Eye On (Bad): This has been an unsolved mystery for years why the Pittsburgh Steelers have been a bad bet at 14-27 ATS (34.1%), and never quite ready to begin the season. Let’s see how they do on a short week at the Baltimore Ravens (9/11) and 10 days later at the Carolina Panthers.
--As good as Detroit has been at home during the month of September, that’s how bad they are away from the Motor City, just 37.2 percent at 16-27 versus the number dating back to 1971. Keep a watchful eye on them at the Carolina Panthers (9/14) and two weeks later in the New Jersey Meadowlands to take on the New York Jets.
Favorites
•Keep An Eye On (Good): The Seattle Seahawks, winners of Super Bowl XLVIII are moneymakers out of the gate at 27-15 ATS (64.2%) and should be favored in all three confrontations against very good competition, facing the Packers, at San Diego and a rematch with Denver in the first three weeks. Given the fact they are 17-1 straight-up and 13-5 versus the number at home the past two seasons behind QB Russell Wilson they will be hard to fade at CenturyLink Field.
•Bad: September has been a very bad month for several teams when listed as favorites. Let’s start with Carolina at 7-17 ATS (29.1%) and since they are lacking perimeter playmakers, they could be in trouble during the initial three weeks of the 2014 campaign being anticipated as favorites.
--Most likely Arizona (7-16 ATS, 30.4%) will only be favored once and that is the opener with the Chargers. With all the information about Sam Bradford and his injured knee flying around the internet fast and furiously... and some of its conflicting, the Rams (12-24 ATS, 33.3%) are a Week #1 home favorite versus the Minnesota Vikings, but Week #3 when Dallas is on the shores of the Mississippi River is up in the air right now.
•Keep An Eye On (Bad): As mentioned above, the Cincinnati Bengals will have two home encounters and will be dishing out points and with an 11-21 spread record in that role at 34.3 percent. You might have to look to the other side.
Underdogs
•Good: Especially in the Tony Romo era, betting against Dallas has been profitable to say the least. Nevertheless, the Cowboys have been money as underdogs the first three to four weeks of the season at 23-10 versus the number 69.6%. While we don’t know for certain, there is a possibility the Cowboys could be underdogs the entire month facing San Francisco (9/7) at Tennessee (9/14), at St. Louis (9/21) and when Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints travel to Texas on the final Sunday of September. Watch closely.
•Bad: Pittsburgh’s pathetic road record has translated into crummy results as an underdog, sitting at 9-20 against the spread, with just a thirty-one percent return on investment. Those two away outings to visit the Ravens and Panthers could mean more Play Against opportunities for NFL bettors.
Division
•Good: The Kansas City Chiefs have annually fared well against AFC West rivals early on in the season, recording a 22-11 against the spread record (66.6%), and makes the trip to Mile High Stadium to take on Denver in Week #2 to see if they can make their good fortune continue.
•Keep An Eye On (Bad): If you think you have seen Cincinnati’s name a lot as a Play Against squad in our Annual September Team Watch Article you are absolutely correct. And they fit again in AFC North action making the trip over to Baltimore on September 7th with a 12-20 ATS record in division action.
_____________________________________________________________
2014 AFC East Preview
The National Football League draft gets all the attention in the spring but the recent release of the 2014 schedule can be a more telling factor in how a team will fare next season. Take a look at the four teams in the AFC East in this schedule preview. This certainly looks like New England’s division to lose with the East title in 10 of the last 11 seasons for the Patriots but this could be a competitive division from top-to-bottom with another year under the belt for three young starting quarterbacks for the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets.
BUFFALO BILLS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .500 (14/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 6 (four home, two away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 8,822
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 1 (one Thursday)
The Bills have not won a division title since 1995 and the odds will be steep on Buffalo ending the streak this season. Buffalo has not had a winning season since 2004 and the Bills have not made the playoffs since 1999. In a transition season with first year head coach Doug Marrone last season Buffalo wound up 6-10 but there were some impressive performances with the Bills scoring 20 or more points in the first seven games of last season including getting wins over Carolina and Baltimore. Buffalo won three division games last season and E.J. Manuel did enough to lead to some optimism for the future, especially with the draft pick of Sammy Watkins coming in this season to boost the offense.
Buffalo will play a reasonable schedule in 2014 with only two road games against 2013 playoff teams and only one trip to the west coast. Buffalo has a central Week #9 bye week and they don’t have to give up a home game to play in Toronto for a change this season. Buffalo will draw winnable home games outside of the division with Minnesota and Cleveland visiting and they will catch teams in coaching transitions early in the season facing the Texans, Lions, and Vikings in the first half of the season.
The Bills do have a daunting December schedule with road games in three of the final four weeks including trips to Denver and New England with the home game coming against Green Bay. That means the start of the season will be even more critical for Buffalo. Making the playoffs seems like a reach with the Bills and the rest of the AFC East facing an AFC West division that produced three 2013 playoff teams but the NFC North was a weak division last season and that is the inter-conference draw for this division. Finishing in fourth place last season allows the Bills to play the Browns but drawing Houston might not feel like a fourth place game if the Texans bounce back after a bizarre 2013 season.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .508 (12/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 6 (four home, two away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 13,835 (includes London)
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 5 (one Thursday, three Sunday night, one Monday)
Despite great distractions last season Miami wound up 8-8 and by virtue of losing the tiebreaker with the Jets the Dolphins will score a third place schedule this season. Miami had a negative point differential despite the even record but the Dolphins should have stability as Joe Philbin remains at head coach through the Richie Incognito scandal and Ryan Tannehill will lead the Dolphins for a third straight season, a rarity in recent years for this franchise. The Dolphins were a worse team statistically than the record indicated and 2013 was a year of streaks for the team, starting 3-0 before losing four straight games and also winning four of five late in the season.
Miami was 8-6 heading into division games in the final two weeks of the season against the Bills and the Jets before getting outscored 39-7 in the two final games to blow a chance at the playoffs. Five of the eight wins came by four or fewer points last season so this is a team that could head backwards without some of the same fortune but the Dolphins also lost four games by four or fewer points in 2013. Miami opens the season with the Patriots and Chiefs in the first two home games of the season and the Dolphins will only play seven true road games as they take on the Raiders in London.
That trip comes early in the season in Week #4 as the Dolphins have an early Week #5 bye. November may be the key month for Miami with games at home against San Diego and Buffalo and road games against Detroit, Denver, and the New York Jets. To have a shot at the playoffs Miami likely needs to be able to come through that stretch at .500 heading into the final four weeks where they host three of the final four games. The Dolphins have four of six games against 2013 playoff teams at home and because they play in London the Dolphins do not travel further west than Denver this season as five road games come in the eastern time zone.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .516 (10/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 6 (two home, four away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 10,181
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 5 (one Thursday, three Sunday night, one Monday)
The Patriots have won the AFC East 10 of the last 11 years, only falling short in an 11-5 campaign in the season that Tom Brady was injured. This has been one of the most consistently successful franchises in professional sports for the last decade and there is little reason to expect much of a decline in 2014 coming off a 12-4 2013 season where New England eventually lost in the AFC Championship. New England will open the season with three of the first four games of the season on the road for a challenging start to the season but it is not a daunting stretch of games with only two of the first eight games of the season coming against teams that had a winning record last season.
New England does have four road games against 2014 playoff teams however and they have some challenging back-to-back sets ahead, playing Kansas City and Cincinnati, Chicago and Denver, and Green Bay and San Diego in back-to-back weeks throughout the season. New England will play five primetime games including three Sunday night games if the schedule holds so there will be some late night travel and taxing scheduling ahead for the Patriots. The first place schedule brings the Colts and Bengals on the schedule and New England was only 4-2 in division games last season with several of those wins coming in very tight games despite this being a relatively weak division last season.
The Patriots had shaky defensive statistics last season despite a strong scoring margin and New England was just 4-4 in road games last season as this team has over-performed its talent in recent years. The track record for New England on personnel decisions and in coaching is impressive however and with three young quarterbacks and three coaches with questionable track records in the division it seems likely that a sixth consecutive division title is very possible even with a fairly difficult 2014 slate.
NEW YORK JETS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .520 (9/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 6 (two home, four away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 9,043
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 1
•Primetime Games: 3 (one Thursday, two Monday)
The Jets were expected to be at the bottom of the league last season after a summer full of problems. New York surprised many with an 8-8 season though the Jets were -97 in point differential. New York has made a lot of moves to upgrade the offense but improving on the mistakes that Geno Smith made last season will be of critical importance for the Jets to stay competitive. New York had wins over both New England and New Orleans last season and at times the defense was very impressive but the Jets also allowed 30 or more points four times last season.
The 2014 schedule features a second place slate but that may not be such a bad thing as Pittsburgh and Tennessee are the two teams drawn, hardly overly threatening second place teams. The Jets do have four road games against 2013 playoff teams and the early season schedule is challenging with three consecutive games against the NFC facing the Packers, Bears, and Lions in consecutive weeks before a tough October lines up with games against the Chargers, Broncos, and Patriots in succession. That start could lead to disaster and major personnel moves unless the Jets pick up an upset or two.
The tough first half schedule should make the opener against Oakland of paramount importance. If New York can survive without digging too big of a hole in the first half, the second half schedule is favorable. The final four road games are not overly daunting playing at Buffalo, at Minnesota, and at Tennessee before the season finale at Miami. The Jets do face a Thursday game and two Monday night games so there will be some short week games ahead which can take a toll. The Jets have a late Week #11 bye week and overall fairly reasonable travel outside of the cross country trek to San Diego in Week #5.
________________________________________________________________
2014 AFC North Preview
The National Football League draft gets all the attention in the spring but the recent release of the 2014 schedule can be a more telling factor in how a team will fare next season. Take a look at the four teams in the AFC North in this schedule preview. The Bengals, Ravens, and Steelers each have three division titles in the last nine years but for a change the Browns have grabbed some of the spotlight this spring. The North should be a competitive division in 2014 with all four teams expecting to be in the playoff mix.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .461 (28/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 6 (three home, three away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 6,425
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 3 (1 Thursday, 1 Sunday Night, 1 Monday)
After the surprise Super Bowl run two seasons ago the Ravens fell to 8-8 last season and missed the playoffs after blowout losses in the final two games of the season. The Ravens lost five of seven games in the middle of the season last season with each loss by six or fewer points as this was a competitive team that was not far from being more of a factor in the AFC. After allowing 49 points in the opening game the Ravens were formidable on defense most of the season until the final two weeks but the offense was very disappointing, particularly in the running game.
Highly paid quarterback Joe Flacco also failed to reach 300 yards passing in any of the final 10 games of the season. Baltimore catches a break with a third place schedule after losing the tiebreaker with Pittsburgh in the 2013 standings. It is certainly debatable whether playing San Diego and Miami is preferable to playing Kansas City and New York in that draw however. The entire North will play the AFC South this season which should provide an opportunity for the North teams to move up in the AFC but the NFC South draw could be challenging.
Baltimore has one of the tougher draws among the division in those matchups having to play on the road against Indianapolis, Houston, and New Orleans. The Ravens open the season with three consecutive division games so the Baltimore will know where it stands early and getting the road trip to Cleveland in early should be an advantage given the transition for the Browns. The Ravens will actually have five of the six division games complete by Week #9 and the back half of the schedule looks more favorable than the front as the Baltimore plays teams that combined to go 18-46 last season in the final four weeks.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .469 (23/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 5 (two home, three away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 4,857
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 1 back-to-back-to-back
•Primetime Games: 3 (1 Thursday, 1 Sunday Night, 1 Monday)
The Bengals have improved in the win column four straight seasons, making the playoffs each of the last three years despite going 0-3 in the postseason. The Bengals have the most stability in the division which is a surprise given the tumultuous run for this franchise in the previous two decades. The 2014 schedules does not look overly difficult with only five games against 2013 playoff teams and one of the weaker win percentages for opponents based on last season’s record.
That said the Bengals are the only team in the division that has play Denver or New England, getting both of them in primetime games this season. In a very tough first half of the schedule the Bengals will play both games with Baltimore plus games with three 2013 playoffs teams in the first eight weeks. Cincinnati will also have to play three consecutive road games in November, going from New Orleans to Houston, and then to Tampa.
The final four weeks could be very tough with home games against the Steelers and Broncos and road division games in cold weather against the Browns and Steelers. Cincinnati has to play five of the final seven games of the season on the road as Cincinnati has what looks like the toughest schedule in the division, also having to play at Indianapolis and at New Orleans. Denver and Seattle were the only two teams in the NFL to have a stronger point differential than the Bengals last season so this has to be considered an elite team but it would not be a surprise to see a slight decline for the Bengals in 2014.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .465 (26/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 5 (three home, two away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 3,634
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 1 (1 Thursday)
The Browns have been in the news a lot this spring, some of it with excitement with Johnny Manziel drafted but Cleveland also was dealt very tough news with Josh Gordon potentially suspended for the season after his breakout 2013 season. Cleveland had to go through three quarterbacks last season and finding stability at that position has been a constant challenge for the organization. Adding Manziel to look over Brian Hoyer’s shoulder may not be the ideal approach but Hoyer was not able to stay healthy last season.
The schedule for the Browns in 2014 looks promising with only two 2013 playoff teams on the schedule in the first 13 weeks. That lighter slate early could ease the coaching transition with Mike Pettine taking over this season. The Browns lost the final seven games of last season and another tough finish could be ahead with four of the final six games on the road and a closing slate of Indianapolis, Cincinnati, at Carolina, at Baltimore.
Each of the last three seasons Cleveland has gone 1-7 on the road but there are winnable road games on the schedule this season, playing at Tennessee, at Jacksonville, at Atlanta, and at Buffalo outside of the division. Cleveland will have the second lightest travel schedule in the NFL in terms of distance, going fewer than 4,000 miles for eight road games with no game further west than Nashville. While the excitement is growing in Cleveland and the Browns will get more national play in the media this season, breaking out of the basement in the division still seems like a long shot.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .469 (23/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 6 (four home, two away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 3,537
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 4
•Primetime Games: 5 (1 Thursday, 2 Sunday Night, 2 Monday)
The Steelers wound up 8-8 last season despite starting 0-4 and eventually sitting at 2-6 at the midpoint of the season. Pittsburgh’s late season surge still left them short of the playoffs and it was an atypical Steelers squad that really struggled defensively. The Steelers were also a very poor rushing team on offense and Pittsburgh draws a second place schedule in 2014. Pittsburgh has the fewest travel miles in 2014 of any team in the NFL as they will not travel further west than Nashville but the Steelers will have some tough travel situations with four separate sets of back-to-back road games.
Despite missing the playoffs the last two seasons Pittsburgh will play five primetime games including playing three national TV night games in a five-week span in the middle of the season. Pittsburgh had a painful start to the 2013 season but on paper a more promising first half seems likely even with four of the first six games on the road. Four of the first six opponents this season won four or fewer games last season so the Steelers could rise to the top of the division early.
Both games with the Bengals are in the final five weeks of the season as are tricky home games with New Orleans and Kansas City as well as a road date with the Falcons as the closing month will be challenging. The Steelers are one of two teams to have a late week 12 bye, the latest in the league, and it will remain to be seen if a team that was injury plagued the past two seasons can hold up without a break for much of the season.
______________________________________________________________
2014 AFC South Preview
The National Football League draft gets all the attention in the spring but the recent release of the 2014 schedule can be a more telling factor in how a team will fare next season. Take a look at the four teams in the AFC South in this schedule preview. The Colts ran away with the division last season as the only winning team in the group but improvement is likely ahead for Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Houston even through some big changes. Whether there is enough to bridge the gap with the favorite in one season remains to be seen.
HOUSTON TEXANS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .441 (30/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 4 (three home, one away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 9,292
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 3
•Primetime Games: 2 (1 Thursday, 1 Monday Night)
Just about everything that could have gone wrong for the Texans went wrong last season as a team that had been expected to be a top AFC contender fell to just 2-14. While the poor results led to a coaching change it also led to great position in the NFL Draft and a favorable schedule ahead in 2014 as the Texans will be a team expected to bounce back into contention. The quarterback position remains a key question mark for Bill O’Brien as he returns to the NFL as T.J. Yates and Case Keenum are back with limited starting experience and veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick has been added to the mix as Houston opted not to draft a quarterback early but did pick Tom Savage in the later rounds.
Houston will only play four games against 2013 playoff teams as a result of the fourth place schedule and the lone road game versus a 2013 playoff team will come in the division at Indianapolis. Houston will play just one 2013 playoff team in the first eight weeks of the schedule which could help in the transition season for the Texans. Houston does have significant travel on the schedule including a west coast to east coast back-to-back set early in the season and a few other long flights.
The Texans will also have to play on the road after a road Monday night appearance and there are three sets of back-to-back road games ahead. Houston is definitely a team that could see a turnaround with turnovers after having great misfortune early in the season to lose several close games but the quarterback position is typically the key to improving in the turnover department and that is still an unsettled area for the team. Facing the AFC North and NFC East teams completes a relatively favorable schedule for this entire division and it is almost a certainty that the Texans will improve in the win column in 2014.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .430 (32/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 4 (three home, one away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 5,605
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 5 (1 Thursday, 2 Sunday Night, 2 Monday Night)
The Colts made several moves to upgrade on offense in the offseason but the defense certainly has some areas of concern, especially with the recent suspension looming for Robert Mathis. For back-to-back seasons the Colts have won 11 games despite questionable point differentials and favorable bounces with turnovers and close game results but this is a team that will be feared in the AFC picture again in 2014. Indianapolis went 6-0 in the division last season and the Colts will be favored to hit that mark again in 2014 with the rest of the division featuring two new coaching staffs and unproven quarterbacks.
The Colts will face the weakest schedule in the NFL in terms of 2013 win percentage thanks the three division foes in the South combining to go 13-35 last season. The Colts will be the only team in the division to face New England and Denver but three of the four games against 2013 playoff teams will come in Indianapolis where the Colts are 13-4 the last two seasons counting the comeback playoff win last year. The only road game against a winning team from 2013 will be in the opener against the Broncos, a team Indianapolis beat last season. In the NFC East draw the Colts will get the 2013 champion Eagles at home and in the AFC North draw the Colts will get the Ravens and Bengals at home for likely the preferable track in those games.
The Colts have a Week #10 bye week which should come at a good time in the later part of the season and it comes before a huge game with the Patriots, the team that bounced the Colts from the playoffs last season. Indianapolis does have to play three of the final four games of the season on the road but the final six games of the season will come against teams that combined to go 28-68 last season. Indianapolis also has very minimal travel requirements in terms of mileage with only two trips to the east coast and no games west of Denver. While the scoring and turnover numbers for the Colts cry for regression, Indianapolis has another great schedule to continue to pace this division.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .453 (29/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 5 (one home, four away) Miles Traveled for 9 road/neutral games: 12,125 (includes London)
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 1 (1 Thursday)
The Jaguars have the lowest win total projection in the National Football League for 2014 and despite Jacksonville winning four games last season the Jaguars had the worst point differential in the NFL at -202. Three wins for Jacksonville came within this division and with the Titans and Texans starting over with new coaching staffs there may be an opportunity for the Jaguars to move up. Jacksonville rolled the dice with Blake Bortles as its top draft pick to inherit the quarterback position but it is not yet clear if Jacksonville will proceed with the rookie in 2014 or if they will give him some time to develop.
Jacksonville obviously had many other problem areas last season but quarterback has been a glaring area of mistakes and limited production in recent seasons. Jacksonville will actually have a somewhat challenging schedule relative to its division foes as they play four road games against 2013 playoff teams and the Jaguars will surrender a home game to play in London. The Jaguars open the season with road games in three of the first four weeks with three of the first four games are also coming against 2013 playoff teams so a strong start to the season seems unlikely.
With the tough early schedule it might be easy for Jacksonville to slip into a another year of rebuilding and go with Bortles to gain experience for 2015 as contending for the postseason seems like a long shot this season. Jacksonville also has tough road games at Cincinnati and at Baltimore late in the season and they play Tennessee and Houston three times in the final four weeks of the season, negating to chance to catch those division foes early in their transition seasons. Finishing in third place in the division last season also means playing San Diego and Miami, two quality teams that appear far ahead of the Jaguars and far ahead of the fourth place draw that Houston will get in 2014. All in all the Jaguars were dealt arguably the toughest schedule in the AFC South and it could be another challenging season.
TENNESSEE TITANS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .438 (31/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 5 (one home, four away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 4,765
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 2 (1 Thursday, 1 Monday Night)
The Titans competed very well at times and were barely negative in point differential in a 7-9 2013 season. After three lackluster seasons Tennessee made a coaching change and they pulled in former Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt who was a prominent candidate for several vacancies. The Titans will feature a brutally tough early season schedule in the transition with three of the first four games on the road and playing teams that combined to go 41-23 last season in the first four weeks. The schedule softens substantially in October for the Titans but Tennessee has a very challenging road schedule overall this season with four 2013 playoff teams plus a Ravens team only a season removed from a Super Bowl title.
Tennessee has to take on the Chiefs and Jets in the second place draw and they will face NFC East champion Philadelphia on the road as well. Tennessee has another set of tough road games following its Week #9 bye week and while the Titans will travel the third fewest miles in the league it is a daunting road schedule overall. Tennessee also drafted offensive players in the early rounds including offensive lineman Taylor Lewan in the first round, an area that seemingly already was a strong point for the team.
The Titans impressed on defense early last season but by the end of the year it was a team that struggled down the stretch and the 7-9 record was a bit misleading as Tennessee won the final two games against Jacksonville and Houston, teams that had clearly mailed in the season and did not want to surrender draft position. The Titans also must replace Chris Johnson at running back and Tennessee has lacked playmakers in the receiving corps in recent seasons. Tennessee seems less likely than Houston to jump to immediate success with the coaching change in this division with the schedule playing a big role. The tough first month could lead to big questions and potential changes at key positions and Jake Locker is yet to prove he can stay healthy.
________________________________________________________________
2014 AFC West Preview
The National Football League draft gets all the attention in the spring but the recent release of the 2014 schedule can be a more telling factor in how a team will fare next season. Take a look at the four teams in the AFC West in this schedule preview. Three teams from the West made the playoffs last season with the Broncos winning the AFC Championship. The schedules for this division are among the toughest in the NFL in 2014 however so a decline is very possible across the board.
DENVER BRONCOS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .570 (2/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 9 (four home, five away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 10,131
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2 including a back-to-back-to-back
•Primetime Games: 5 (1 Thursday, 3 Sunday night, 1 Monday night)
From 1999 to 2007 there was a clear trend of the Super Bowl loser struggling the next season with seven of those nine runner-ups falling to a losing record the next season. The last two seasons the Super Bowl loser wound up back in the conference championship game but in the last 20 years no Super Bowl loser has returned to the big game the next season, a troubling trend for the Broncos. Denver made some aggressive off-season moves notably bringing in DeMarcus Ware as the Broncos know that with Peyton Manning the window for a championship is narrow at this stage in his career.
Denver will face a much tougher schedule in 2014 however after coasting to brilliant numbers in the regular season last year through one of the weakest schedules in the league. Denver has to play nine 2013 playoff teams this season as the AFC West plays the very tough NFC West teams and the Broncos will draw Indianapolis and Cincinnati as well and the entire AFC East. Outside of the division the Broncos have several very challenging road games, playing at Seattle, at New England, and at Cincinnati and in eight road games Denver faces teams that were a combined 75-53 last season. Denver has a stretch of three consecutive road games in November and the challenge of that run is increased by starting across the country in a huge game at New England.
The primetime schedule could also wear on the Broncos with five night games ahead including having to play three division games following up primetime night games either Sunday or Monday. Denver is an older team and an early Week #4 bye might not be ideal. The first three games of the season are very tough with the Colts, Chiefs, and Seahawks in the first three weeks before the bye week. Denver also closes the season with three of the last five games on the road including potential cold weather games in Kansas City and Cincinnati. Early in the season the Broncos will play the Chiefs, Seahawks, Cardinals, Jets, 49ers, and Chargers in succession as the offense will likely see a huge step back in production simply based on the quality of defenses faced compared with last season. Denver is still the team to beat in the AFC but it will be a much tougher path in 2014.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .559 (7/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 7 (four home, three away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 10,593
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 1
•Primetime Games: 3 (1 Thursday, 1 Sunday night, 1 Monday night)
The Chiefs went from 2-14 to 11-5 in one season with Andy Reid. The schedule played a role but Kansas City had a lot of talent on the roster following the disastrous and tragic 2012 season. The Chiefs will be a prime candidate to slip in 2014 with a much tougher slate and the league better prepared for how the offense will look as the Chiefs were one of the early surprise teams last season. Kansas City had an epic meltdown in the playoffs last season which could be difficult to overcome but if there is any consolation the Chiefs have the easiest schedule in the division in terms of 2013 win percentage.
Kansas City only plays three 2013 playoff teams outside of the division though it is a very tough group featuring New England, San Francisco, and Seattle. The Chiefs get the Patriots and Seahawks at home as they will avoid two of the toughest venues in the league unlike some of the division counterparts. The schedule before a Week #6 bye is brutally tough with road games in Denver and San Francisco plus a Monday night game with the Patriots but the slate is reasonable in the back half. The final four road games of the season are all against teams that missed the playoffs in 2013 and the only set of back-to-back road games comes early in the year.
The road games with San Diego and Denver come in relatively favorable situations for the Chiefs as they will catch the Broncos coming off a huge opening game with the Colts and they have a bye week before heading to San Diego. In a division race that could be very tight it could make a huge difference if the Chiefs are able to steal a big road win in the division. The Chiefs will take on substantial travel miles this season despite being about as close to the middle of the country as can be as Kansas City plays every road game outside of its own central time zone. The Chiefs have a very difficult schedule and falling from 11 wins would not be a surprise but this is not a team that should endure a significant collapse and Kansas City might actually have the best path in the division.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .578 (1/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 9 (four home, five away)
•Miles Traveled for 9 road/neutral games: 20,251 (includes London)
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 1
•Primetime Games: 1 (1 Thursday)
While the Raiders have been a dysfunctional franchise most of the last two decades with short term plans and a constant state of transition, there is a lot to like about what the Raiders did in the off-season. Oakland did some positive things last year in a 4-12 first season under Dennis Allen as they ran the ball with some success and were capable defensively especially against the run. The offense showed some promise even battling through three different starting quarterbacks and fighting injuries. Oakland picked up several quality veterans in free agency led by Matt Schaub to take over at quarterback as well as several pieces on defense.
Oakland also had a draft class that was well reviewed led by Khalil Mack and several other defensive players to add depth. Unfortunately for the Raiders success may have to wait another season as the AFC West looks like the most difficult division in the conference and Oakland has drawn one of the league’s absolute toughest schedules. The Raiders will play nine games against 2013 playoff teams as a result of every game in the division fitting that role and the fourth place draw of Cleveland and Houston looks fairly daunting relative to most seasons as those teams could be greatly improved even in transition seasons. Oakland has road games at New England and at Seattle, nearly impossible places to win and the final month looks brutal with a home date with the 49ers and the road meetings with the Chiefs and Broncos.
The first half of the schedule is more reasonable for the Raiders as they only play one winning team from 2013 in the first four weeks before the bye week in Week #5. That bye comes after a trip to London as the Raiders are surrendering a home game this season to make things even more challenging. Including the trip across the pond the Raiders will travel over 20,000 miles for nine away games, by far the most travel miles in the league. If the Raiders do manage a respectable start to the season they will face a gauntlet starting in November facing seven teams that were a combined 76-36 last season. The only primetime game of the season for the Raiders is a short week Thursday night game that follows up a huge division road game at San Diego as well. Expect the Raiders to be a competent team in 2014 but it might not show up in the standings.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .563 (4/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 7 (four home, three away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 12,189
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 4 (1 Thursday, 1 Saturday, 1 Sunday night, 1 Monday night)
With wins in the final four games of the regular season last year the Chargers snuck into the playoffs and San Diego upset Cincinnati in the wild card round before falling narrowly against the Broncos. That late run and the resurgent season from Philip Rivers made it a very successful first season for head coach Mike McCoy. Expectations will be elevated moving forward however and the Chargers will have a tough 2014 schedule along with the rest of the division. San Diego is a team that could create an early buzz in 2014 however as they have a favorable early season schedule.
They only play one 2013 playoff team in the first six weeks and while they do have to play the Seahawks, that game is at home and they catch Seattle off what will be a hyped opener with the Packers knowing that the Seahawks have a Super Bowl rematch in Week #3 as well. The Chargers also catch Denver in what could be a favorable Thursday night spot in Week #8, with the Broncos coming off a primetime game with a physical 49ers team the previous week and with the Broncos staring at the Patriots in the following game. As usual this could be a Chargers team capable of beating some of the elite teams in the NFL but also capable of losing to anyone. Houston, Oakland, and Washington combined to win nine games last season but three of those wins came against the Chargers.
San Diego has a late bye week in Week #10 but they will pay the price for the favorable early schedule with a brutally tough final five weeks. The Chargers play at Baltimore to close November before a December schedule that features teams that went 48-16 last season. The final two games of the season for San Diego are at San Francisco and then at Kansas City, with home games with New England and Denver before that. A 4-0 close to the season seems pretty unlikely for the Chargers in 2014 so San Diego will need a strong start to stay in contention late. San Diego has three east coast games and significant overall travel as well and they have a few awkward primetime games with a Monday night game to open the season plus a late season Saturday game. Look for the Chargers to start the season looking like a serious contender but this is a team that could limp into the postseason if they find a way to get there.
_______________________________________________________________
2014 NFC East Preview
The National Football League draft gets all the attention in the spring but the recent release of the 2014 schedule can be a more telling factor in how a team will fare next season. Take a look at the four teams in the NFC East in this schedule preview. The East is one of the highest profile divisions in the league but it has not been a strong division top to bottom for several years. Each of the four teams has a division title in the last five seasons but no team has repeated as division champion since 2004.
DALLAS COWBOYS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .488 (18/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 6 (four home, two away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games (includes London): 13,642
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 6 (1 Thursday night, 1 Thanksgiving, 3 Sunday night, 1 Monday night)
Despite consistent mediocrity in recent seasons expectations and interest are always sky high for the Cowboys. This off-season the team did not appear to make major upgrades, in fact losing one of its biggest stars as DeMarcus Ware signed with Denver. The Cowboys also avoided the high profile drafting of Johnny Manziel but there have been some positive additions in free agency led by Henry Melton. If Dallas is to breakthrough to the playoffs in 2014 they will need a strong start as the schedule opens with great difficulty. Dallas opens the season at home against San Francisco before heading on back-to-back road games to Nashville and St. Louis, facing two teams that could provide tough tests this season as improved squads.
The next two home games come against New Orleans and Houston before the Cowboys head to Seattle. Getting through that run at 3-3 would be a positive step for Dallas before the middle of the season that features several divisional matchups. Overexposed is a word that often comes to mind with Dallas and the Cowboys will play six national TV confrontations including four consecutive TV games in the late season schedule. Dallas faces six 2013 playoff teams but four of those games will be at home for a somewhat favorable draw.
The East faces an AFC South division that could be the weakest in the AFC but Dallas and the rest of the East will play the stacked NFC West, featuring both of last season’s NFC Championship representatives. The second place draw for the Cowboys brings in challenging games with the Saints and Bears as well to make up a difficult overall slate. Dallas plays Jacksonville in London in November as the Cowboys will only play seven true road games for an advantage but the lengthy travel late in the season could be taxing. Getting the bye week before big division games with the Giants and Eagles could be beneficial however. The first six weeks could make or break the Dallas season and as usual the Cowboys should be interesting and competitive enough to stay relevant, though contending for a championship seems like a stretch.
NEW YORK GIANTS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .465 (26/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 5 (three home, two away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 8,193
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 5 (1 Thursday, 2 Sunday night, 2 Monday night)
After going just 9-7 with a point differential of +88 in 2012 the Giants looked like a team poised to deliver a stronger season in 2013. New York wound up 7-9 last season with disastrous numbers on defense and big issues with turnovers on offense. New York started the season 0-6 and rallied to win seven of the final 10 games of the season including putting together a competitive season within the division. The Giants draw a 3rd place schedule in 2014 which means drawing the Lions and Falcons, potentially a dangerous grouping with both of those teams also being big disappointments in 2013 and potentially poised to rebound.
One thing to note on the schedule that plays in favor of the Giants is that New York will play a team with a new coaching staff in three of the first four weeks of the season, seemingly a big advantage compared with the rest of the division given the relative stability of the Giants organization in recent years. New York only plays one 2013 playoff team in the first eight weeks of the season so New York is almost certain to get off to a much better start this year.
The season for New York will face its biggest challenge in November playing the Colts, Seahawks, and 49ers in consecutive games although that daunting stretch is preceded by a bye week and two of the three games as well as a game with the Cowboys in Week #12 will be at home. New York will only play two games on the road against teams that had a winning record in 2013 and only the finale at home against the Eagles among the final six games comes against a winning team from last season. All in all New York has what looks like the best schedule in the NFC East, facing the 7th weakest schedule in the league in terms of 2013 win percentage and facing the fewest travel miles in the division. It is worth noting that New York seemingly had a favorable schedule entering the 2013 season as well with a favorable second place draw but that obviously played out poorly.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .479 (20/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 5 (two home, three away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 10,247
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 6 (1 Thursday, 1 Saturday, 2 Sunday night, 2 Monday night)
The Eagles wound up winning the NFC East last season in a great bounce back year led by Chip Kelly making a successful jump to the NFL. Philadelphia found a quarterback with efficient play from Nick Foles and the unique wrinkles in the offense proved difficult for many opponents. Philadelphia benefitted from facing three awful defensive teams in the division last season though two losses came in the division. The Eagles were the second highest scoring team in the NFC last season behind only Chicago but the Eagles were only +60 in point differential as the defense had several problematic games in an inconsistent season.
In 2014 the Eagles draw a first place schedule which means pulling Carolina and a facing a trip to Green Bay with those games coming in consecutive weeks in November. The Eagles have a very tough road schedule overall with only one road game outside of the division coming against a losing team from 2013 and that game is at Houston, a team many expect to be very competitive moving forward. The Eagles do get to avoid traveling to Seattle this season but they play at San Francisco and also have likely the tougher of the road game possibilities in the AFC South draw playing at Indianapolis and at Houston.
After a an early Week #7 bye week the Eagles play three of the next four games on the road in what could be the most important stretch of the season outside of the division games. Philadelphia has four of its six division games in the final five weeks of the season as the success or failure of the season will likely be decided in December. It will be interesting to see if opponents are better prepared for the Eagles in 2014 with a season of film on the offense but despite some challenges in the schedule the Eagles only play five games against 2013 playoff teams and this looks like a division that will not require an amazing record to win.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .490 (17/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 5 (two home, three away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 9,956
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 3 (1 Thursday, 1 Saturday, 2 Monday night)
After the great breakthrough season in 2012 led by then-rookie Robert Griffin III the Redskins crashed last season falling to just 3-13 for the worst record in the NFC. The #2 draft pick slot for Washington went to the Rams so there was no reward for the awful season in which the team was outscored by 144 points. Washington went 0-6 in the division and 1-11 versus the NFC last season and while the opportunity to improve will be there, a worst-to-first scenario similar to what has played out in this division the last two seasons seems unlikely. Washington made a coaching change with Jay Gruden taking over and the early season schedule should be manageable for a team in transition.
Washington opens at Houston, the only team with a worse record in 2013 and another team in transition and then Washington will host Jacksonville in Week #2 so a promising start is possible. Washington will only play two 2013 playoff teams in the first 11 weeks of the schedule so it would not be a shock if Washington topped last season’s win total by that point before a challenging closing slate. Washington’s final three road games include trips to San Francisco and Indianapolis in back-to-back weeks and the final two home games will be big division tests against Philadelphia and Dallas.
The fourth place draw provides games with Tampa Bay and Minnesota, two teams that are also going through a coaching transition and those games will surround a Week #10 bye week. With a fairly average schedule Washington seems likely to improve on the ugly numbers from 2013 and the first few weeks should be very telling on whether or not Washington can return to being a playoff contender or whether the transition could take some time. Given the tough games later in the season, starting 2-0 might be critical for the Redskins and they have the opening draw to make it happen, facing teams with questionable quarterback situations in the first two weeks.
________________________________________________________
2014 NFC North Preview
The National Football League draft gets all the attention in the spring but the recent release of the 2014 schedule can be a more telling factor in how a team will fare next season. Take a look at the four teams in the NFC North in this schedule preview. The North was a disappointing division in 2013 with the Packers taking the title despite just an 8-7-1 record and only the 7-9 Lions featuring a positive point differential. This was after the division produced three 10-win teams in 2012. Green Bay is the favorite to win a fourth consecutive division title in 2014 but all four teams can make a case for improvement.
CHICAGO BEARS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .496 (15/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 6 (two home, four away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 6,306
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 6 (1 Thursday night, 1 Thanksgiving, 2 Sunday night, 2 Monday night)
The plan to bring in an offensive minded coach with former CFL coach Marc Trestman certainly worked as Chicago was the highest scoring team in NFC last season. A team with a reputation for playing great defense struggled to an 8-8 mark while allowing nearly 30 points per game however. While the Bears fell from 10-6 in 2012 to 8-8 they were in control of their playoff fate in the final week, losing to the Packers on a late touchdown. Along with the rest of the NFC North, Chicago faces the four AFC East teams and the four NFC South teams and Chicago will have to play Dallas and San Francisco in the 2nd place schedule draw.
Chicago has a tough road schedule in 2014 with games at San Francisco, at Carolina, and at New England and before a Week #9 bye week the Bears will play five road games. Chicago could find a stronger finish in 2014 as the Bears are at home in five of the final seven games of the season with only one of those final seven games coming against a 2013 playoff team. Both games with the Packers will complete by Week #10 for Chicago and the Bears catch Green Bay in potentially favorable situations as the Packers play in Chicago as the second of two back-to-back division games on the road and the bye week will precede Chicago's trip to Lambeau Field.
The Bears will be in the spotlight with six national TV games this season including two primetime games in the first three weeks of the season as well as three consecutive national TV games late in the year. The Bears have made some moves to address the league's worst run defense from 2013 and there could be more stability on the team if the key injuries from 2013 are avoided, though the case can be made that the Bears were a worse team last season with Jay Cutler at quarterback. After a hot 3-0 start last season faded the Bears might have a slower start in 2014 but a favorable late season slate could push the Bears into the postseason mix in what should be a tight division race yet again.
DETROIT LIONS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .492 (16/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 5 (two home, three away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games (includes London): 9,286
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 2 (1 Thanksgiving, 1 Monday night)
The Lions had all signs pointing to a big turnaround in 2013 and while Detroit did improve by three wins from a 4-12 2012 season, this was a team that sat at 6-3 with the division lead before collapsing with losses in six of the final seven games. The slide cost Jim Schwartz his job and after being passed over by some of the higher profile coaching candidates the Lions hired Jim Caldwell, the former Colts head coach and more recently the offensive coordinator on the 2012 Super Bowl champion Ravens.
The Lions have a great deal of talent on both sides of the ball but another transition season is ahead and Caldwell is the eighth Lions head coach since the team last won a division title in 1993. Detroit draws a third place schedule in 2014 which means games with the Giants and Cardinals, not exactly weak opponents and Detroit draws a daunting road schedule despite only having to play seven true road games with a London date in Week #8 versus Atlanta. The four non-division road games for the Lions come against teams that were 42-22 last season.
Detroit also has two challenging back-to-back road game sets in the second half of the season having to play at Arizona and then at New England the next week for taxing travel and then closing the season on the road in Chicago and then Green Bay in potentially treacherous weather for an indoor team. The first half schedule looks slightly more favorable for the Lions but for a team in a coaching transition getting off to a hot start may be difficult. As usual the Lions will likely have a handful of games where they look like a legitimate contender but getting consistent performances with this schedule in a transition season could be a great challenge. Another late season slide seems likely for the Lions with a tough path in November and December.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .504 (13/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 5 (three home, two away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 7,783
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 5 (2 Thursday, 2 Sunday night, 1 Monday night)
The Packers barely snuck into the playoffs despite facing one of the weaker schedules in the league last season. Aaron Rodgers did miss several games as the Packers bounced through three different back-up quarterbacks but ultimately Green Bay finished with a negative point differential despite the division title. Injuries were costly for Green Bay on both sides of the ball last season and better results could be on the way with improved health but there were glaring issues on the team defensively last season. Despite what ultimately was a pretty mediocre campaign in 2013 the Packers draw a first place schedule which means they are the only team to play Seattle, where they open the season. They also host Philadelphia in between division games in November.
Green Bay gets to play 2013 division winners New England and Carolina at home which could be a big advantage and overall the Packers have a fairly favorable schedule with only two road games against 2013 playoff teams. Four of the first six games of the season will be on the road and Green Bay has long trips to Seattle, Miami, New Orleans, Buffalo, and Tampa Bay this season. The Packers will play all three teams in the division in the first five weeks including the big road tests at Detroit and Chicago and even if the Packers don't win in Seattle they should be able to get off to a fairly strong start to the season in the first half slate.
Green Bay plays teams that finished a combined 21-43 last season in the final four weeks of the season so swooping in to steal the division title again is certainly a possibility for the Packers as the Lions and Bears both face tough closing slates. In a division with two new head coaches and a second-year head coach the Packers have by far the most stability of the group and while the schedule rates slightly more difficult than the rest of the division, overall the timing of games should play out favorably for Green Bay.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .477 (21/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 5 (three home, two away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 7,684
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 1 (1 Thursday)
The rise to 10-6 in 2012 certainly felt like a fluke for the Vikings and not surprisingly Minnesota fell backwards last season, finishing 4-12 while allowing 480 points, the most in the league. The Vikings started 1-7 last season before competing relatively well down the stretch, going 2-0-1 in the final three division games and beating NFC East champion Philadelphia and playing close games with Dallas and Baltimore. Minnesota appears set to go with veteran Matt Cassel at quarterback although the Vikings traded up to get Teddy Bridgewater late in the first round of the 2014 NFL draft.
Minnesota's rough 2013 season led to a coaching change and defensive-minded Mike Zimmer takes over after great success in transforming the Cincinnati defense in recent years. The Vikings still have a great running game and a solid run defense returning from last season but in a division with three high-profile quarterbacks it has been tough for Minnesota to keep up. The Vikings had a very difficult schedule last season and there are challenges ahead in 2014, mainly getting used to playing outside as the Vikings will play at TCF Bank Stadium for two seasons on the campus of the University of Minnesota while a new stadium is built in downtown Minneapolis.
Four of the final six games of the season will be at home for Minnesota and there certainly could be some challenging cold weather games and the fan support could be diminished moving from the loud Metrodome into a smaller college stadium. The 4th place draw of St. Louis and Washington does not feature a typical pair of last place squads but the Vikings do at least avoid the NFC West powers and Minnesota only plays one road game outside of the division against a 2013 playoff team, though it is a challenging game at New Orleans.
The Vikings play the Patriots, Saints, and Packers in the first five weeks, a very tough early draw for a team in transition with quarterback questions. If Minnesota can avoid a disastrous start like they had last season the rest of the schedule is relatively favorable. Minnesota plays teams that were a combined 28-52 from Week #6 to #11 with a bye week mixed in as Minnesota would have a chance to stay in contention if they can steal a game or two in the tough first month. The final two road games are at Detroit and at Miami, not exactly overly threatening venues and the Vikings do not have to play any west coast games. The Vikings are probably a year away from seriously contending for the postseason but this is likely to be an improved team compared with 2013 based on the schedule alone.
______________________________________________________________
2014 NFC South Preview
The National Football League draft gets all the attention in the spring but the recent release of the 2014 schedule can be a more telling factor in how a team will fare next season. Take a look at the four teams in the NFC South in this schedule preview. The South featured two playoff teams in 2014 with a big rise for the Panthers and a big fall for Atlanta. This should be a competitive division again as in the 12-year history of the division there has never been a repeat champion with all four teams taking three titles each.
ATLANTA FALCONS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .512 (11/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 6 (two home, four away)
•Miles Traveled for 9 road/neutral games (includes London): 9,452
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 3
•Primetime Games: 2 (1 Thursday Night, 1 Monday Night)
The Falcons went 13-3 in the 2012, falling just short of the Super Bowl in a tough NFC championship loss to the 49ers. With a much tougher schedule and some key injuries the Falcons took a big fall in the standings last year, going just 4-12 in 2013 and winding up as one of the most disappointing teams in the National Football League. Atlanta was the worst rushing offense in the NFL last season and one of the worst defensive teams, particularly against the run. Seven losses for the Falcons came by seven or fewer points last season, including each of the first four losses of the season so Atlanta was not far from being a much more competitive team in 2013.
The Falcons did not win a game by more than eight points however, getting an overtime triumph and a one-point win among the season's four victories. Heading into 2014 Atlanta has been limited in free agency with several highly paid veterans on the roster and Atlanta draws a 3rd place schedule as they 'won' the tiebreaker with Tampa Bay who also finished 4-12 last season. With the entire South playing the NFC North the difference is playing the Giants and Cardinals instead of the Redskins and Rams. The NFC South plays the solid AFC North teams meaning four fairly tough games and the Falcons have the Bengals and Ravens on the road, likely the more difficult of the draws.
Atlanta will also play at Green Bay late in the season and the Falcons only have seven home games in 2014, surrendering a home date to play the Lions in London. In addition to the long travel overseas Atlanta will play three sets of back-to-back away games on the year with substantial travel overall this season. Getting off to a good start will be critical for the Falcons but with the Saints and Bengals in the first two weeks that could be a challenge and the Falcons also have a daunting closing schedule playing Arizona, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, and Carolina in the final five weeks. It will be tough for Atlanta to be as bad as it was in 2013 but a huge improvement also seems unlikely with this slate.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .473 (22/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 6 (two home, four away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 5,159
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 3 (1 Thursday Night, 1 Sunday Night, 1 Monday Night)
2013 was the breakthrough season for the Carolina Panthers with head coach Ron Rivera and quarterback Cam Newton delivering a division title after some serious struggles the previous two seasons. The Panthers were 7-1 at home last season and 5-1 in the division but they lost at home in the playoffs against San Francisco. The first place schedule does mean that the Panthers have to play the Seahawks but that game will be in Charlotte this season. That matchup will come in a grueling mid-season run of tough games as Carolina has a very challenging early season schedule.
The Panthers will play nine consecutive games against teams that won at last seven games last season starting in Week #2, and the toughest stretch features back-to-back road games at Cincinnati and at Green Bay followed by home games with Seattle and New Orleans and then a Monday night game in Philadelphia. It would not be a surprise if the Panthers had as many losses as all of last season by mid-season as most of the big games come in the early part of the schedule. That does mean that five of the final six games of the season will come against teams that had a losing record last season.
Carolina has the latest possible bye week coming in Week #12 which could add to the toll of the early season schedule and the Panthers were a team that won five games by four or fewer points last season, something that will be difficult to replicate. That included narrow wins over the 49ers, Patriots, and Saints late in the season and Carolina will need more big wins against marquee opposition to contend for the playoffs again in 2014. Four of Carolina's six games against 2013 playoff teams will be on the road but Carolina does not have long travel miles ahead with no west coast games on the schedule. The Panthers should be a competitive team but a few bounces may fall the other way this season and the tough early slate might send the Panthers back to being closer to a .500 team.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .469 (23/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 5 (four home, one away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 6,571
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 1
•Primetime Games: 5 (1 Thursday Night, 2 Sunday Night, 2 Monday Night)
In what felt like a transition season with the Saints getting head coach Sean Payton back on the sidelines and with Rob Ryan taking over the defense, the Saints managed to go 11-5 and earn a wild card spot. Despite a challenging travel situation New Orleans won in Philadelphia on the road in the playoffs before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champions in Seattle. New Orleans was the only team in the NFC to go 8-0 at home last season and getting back to the top of the division and earning home field advantage will be a priority if the Saints have another Super Bowl run left in the Drew Brees era.
In terms of 2013 win percentage New Orleans will face the weakest schedule of the four teams in the NFC South and the Saints will only play one road game against a 2013 palyoff team, playing division rival Carolina in Charlotte in a mid-season Thursday night game. That game comes in a tough situation following up a Sunday night tilt with the Packers but the home date in the series with Panthers will be a favorable situation for the Saints as it will be the second of back-to-back road games for Carolina. New Orleans will not play a team that had a winning record in 2013 until Week #8 as the Saints should be in position to get off to a great start and emerge as one of the teams to beat in 2014.
New Orleans does open with three of the first four games on the road but they get to catch Cleveland and Minnesota in the first three weeks, teams with coaching transitions that could feature some growing pains early in the season. Four of the first six games of the season for the Saints will come against a new coaching staff, a huge advantage over the rest of the division that will play most of those teams later in the schedule. The Saints have an early Week #6 bye week which may not be ideal for an older team but New Orleans also only plays one 2013 playoff team in the final six weeks of the season.
The meat of the schedule starts in late October with consecutive games against Green Bay, Carolina, San Francisco, Cincinnati, and Baltimore, although only the division game against the Panthers in that run will be on the road. With its toughest games at home and one of the best home field edges in the league this slate lines up well for the Saints to return to prominence in the NFC. New Orleans also only plays back-to-back road games once and that run comes in the first two weeks of the season when the team might be in a better position to handle it. Overall the Saints have one of the better looking schedules among all of the expected NFC contenders.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .484 (19/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 6 (four home, two away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 7,110
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 3 (including a back-to-back-to-back)
•Primetime Games: 1 (1 Thursday Night)
Given that Lovie Smith is a veteran coach that featured a strong track record despite his firing two seasons ago, many expect Tampa Bay to be the team with a new coaching staff that could deliver success right away. The Buccaneers have a talented receiving corps and made some big moves in free agency but there are still questions on what was a terrible defensive team against the pass last year and with the quarterback situation led by Mike Glennon and the least productive passing offense in the NFL from 2013.
There were many distractions last season in a 0-8 start to the season for the Buccaneers but several of the losses came in tight defeats against high quality teams. The Buccaneers only won once on the road last season but most of the toughest games out of the division in 2014 will come at home. Tampa Bay will have to play three straight road games from Week #3 to #5 for a daunting travel run early in the season and the closing slate is tough as well with the Panthers, Packers, and Saints in the final three weeks. Tampa Bay also plays four road games in five weeks late in the season including some potential cold weather games in November.
The Buccaneers will know where they stand early with a division game against each team in the first five weeks with two of those games coming on the road. If Tampa Bay can survive a fairly tough six-game run to start the season before a Week #7 bye they could emerge as a serious playoff contender. After the bye week the Buccaneers play four straight games against teams that combined to go 16-47-1 last season before a fairly daunting closing schedule. Tampa Bay will be considered a sleeper for the playoffs with this schedule and at the very least improvement by multiple wins over last season seems very possible in 2014.
_____________________________________________________________
2014 NFC West Preview
The National Football League draft gets all the attention in the spring but the recent release of the 2014 schedule can be a more telling factor in how a team will fare next season. Take a look at the four teams in the NFC West in this schedule preview. The West was the toughest division in the NFL last season with the four teams going 42-22 combined and the division producing both NFC finalists. The schedules will be challenging across the board in 2014 for the West and it seems inevitable that at least one of the teams in this division will fall from last season’s pace.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .547 (8/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 8 (five home, three away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 10,852
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 1
•Primetime Games: 3 (1 Thursday Night, 1 Sunday Night, 1 Monday Night
The Cardinals went from 5-11 to 10-6 and just missing the playoffs last season led by Bruce Arians in his first season in Glendale and the acquisition of veteran quarterback Carson Palmer. Arizona was +55 in point differential last season with five wins by seven or fewer points but the defense was fierce, led by one of the best run stopping units in the NFL. The Cardinals went just 2-4 in division games and improving that mark will be the key for the Cardinals moving up in this stacked division. Arizona will be the rare 10-win team getting a 3rd place schedule which means drawing Atlanta and Detroit as the West will play all four NFC East teams. The division also draws a very tough AFC West with three of those four opponents being 2013 playoff teams as overall the division will feature challenging schedules.
Arizona has to play eight games against 2013 playoff teams and like every team in this division, the Cardinals will face over 10,000 travel miles while facing a top eight schedule in terms of 2013 win percentage. By a small margin Arizona has the weakest schedule in the NFC West in terms of 2013 win percentage and Arizona will get five of the eight games against 2013 playoff teams at home. Arizona will need to carry over its late season momentum from last year into the start of the season as the schedule is a bit front-loaded and back-loaded for the Cardinals with what appear to be the best opportunities in the middle of the season. Home games with San Diego and San Francisco early in the season will be critical and the Cardinals will only face one winning team from 2013 in the first four road games, though that game is against the AFC champion Broncos.
Arizona also has home games with Washington, St. Louis, and Detroit in the middle of the season before a tough final month slate. The Cardinals play division foes in each of the final three weeks with two of those three games on the road. Arizona plays both games with Seattle in the final six weeks of the season while also playing four of the final six overall on the road with some substantial travel. With an early Week #4 bye week the late season the tough schedule and taxing travel could take a toll on the Cardinals. Arizona is not likely to fall off the map in 2014 but a small step back seems possible unless they can turn things around in the division games.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .563 (4/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 7 (four home, three away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 11,969
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 3
•Primetime Games: 5 (1 Thursday Night, 1 Saturday Night, 2 Sunday Night, 1 Monday Night)
With three consecutive NFC championship appearances the 49ers have certainly established themselves as one of the top teams in the National Football League and a team that is a Super Bowl threat every season. San Francisco struggled to run the ball effectively last season but despite an ugly 1-2 start to the season the 49ers rallied to win 11 of the last 13 games of the regular season and took Seattle down to the wire in the NFC championship after beating Green Bay and Carolina in the playoffs. Last season San Francisco had to face a 1st place schedule and this season the 49ers get a 2nd place draw which means avoiding Green Bay but having to play New Orleans.
San Francisco has tough road games at Dallas, at Denver, and at New Orleans outside of the already tough division road games but the 49ers will play the fewest 2013 playoff teams in the division with just seven of those games, including only three on the road. The 49ers face substantial travel this season and will play three separate sets of back-to-back road games while also getting three short week games with the primetime schedule. San Francisco will play Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday night games on the season. Unlike the rest of the division the 49ers draw a more favorable Week #8 bye week that should provide a more centrally placed break.
The biggest current rivalry in the league will be saved for late in the season as the games with Seattle are in Weeks #13 and #15 and the game in Seattle comes in a second straight road game, though the previous road game is just in Oakland. San Francisco will have an adjustment this season with the new stadium in Santa Clara and the early season home games are challenging with Chicago, Philadelphia, and Kansas City coming into town in the first five weeks. San Francisco looks like an elite team again but this is a very tough schedule and there is little margin for error in this division with four legitimate playoff contenders.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .561 (6/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 8 (five home, three away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 16,028
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 4 (2 Thursday Night, 1 Sunday Night, 1 Monday Night)
The Super Bowl champions were mostly dominant last season finishing with a 13-3 record and a point differential of +186. Seattle has featured one of the best defenses in the NFL and the offense was very impressive at times last season though not with the same consistency as the defense. Seattle benefitted from a weaker schedule last season with a 2nd place draw and the Seahawks were able to coast late in the season after an 11-1 start, eventually dropping two games late in the season but still earning the top seed in the NFC. Seattle won twice in overtime last season and had three other wins by seven or fewer points and trading the AFC South for the AFC West will upgrade the challenge in 2014.
Seattle also draws Carolina and Green Bay in the 1st place draw and Seattle will play eight games in 2014 against 2013 playoff teams. Seattle has incredibly long travel this season going over 16,000 miles for eight road games, more miles than most of the teams heading to London this season will face. Three east coast games are ahead for the Seahawks plus two Central Time games and Seattle has two sets of back-to-back road games with the second of the two games out east in both cases. The Seahawks will need to avoid a Super Bowl hangover in September with a brutal opening trio of games with Green Bay, San Diego, and Denver in the first three weeks before an early Week #4 bye week. The schedule softens a bit in October and early November but starting in mid-November the Seahawks will play six straight games against teams that won at least 10 games in 2013 including both games with San Francisco and road games in Kansas City, Philadelphia, and Arizona.
Seattle will close with division games in the final three weeks and this season the division race may still be up in the air in December with all four teams looking viable. Seattle did not actually have the best record in the division last season going 4-2 while the 49ers went 5-1 so there is no margin for error and with the taxing travel schedule it would not be a surprise if the Seahawks slipped a game or two from last season despite still looking like a serious threat to repeat. Seattle has won six of the last 10 NFC West titles and if they win the division again in 2014 it will not likely be in convincing fashion.
ST LOUIS RAMS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .564 (3/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 8 (three home, five away)
•Miles Traveled for 78road/neutral games: 10,575
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 1 back-to-back-to-back
•Primetime Games: 2 (1 Thursday Night, 1 Monday Night)
This is a talented Rams team that has been building nicely in two seasons under Jeff Fisher and if St. Louis played in any other division they might be considered one of the favorites. As it stands St. Louis will have to try to move up in a division where they went 1-5 last season, while going 6-4 against the rest of the league. St. Louis was also just 2-6 on the road last season and the Rams were only -16 in point differential in a 7-9 campaign where they played with a back-up quarterback much of the way. While St. Louis was very competitive last season they did not lose a lot of close games with only one defeat by fewer than seven points as this was an inconsistent team.
The Rams also did not win close games with only one win decided by fewer than 10 points and an average margin of victory of more than 16 points in the seven wins. St. Louis should be a candidate to start the season strong with two games against teams that had losing records and with new coaching staffs this season in the first two weeks. A 2-0 start is paramount for the Rams this season if they hope to contend for a playoff spot. The Rams then host Dallas in Week #3 before an early Week #4 bye week. St. Louis will then embark on an absolutely brutal stretch of games in October and early November playing seven of eight games against 2013 playoff teams with the lone exception in that run being a game at Arizona who went 10-6 last season. That game comes in a third straight road game for the Rams as well.
While the final game of the season for St. Louis is at Seattle there are winnable games in Weeks #13 and #16 with three of those four games coming at home but surviving the mid-season gauntlet will be a great challenge. St. Louis is talented enough to steal some of those games with upsets but for a team that was incredibly inconsistent last season it is not clear if the Rams are ready to take a step forward this season and the schedule is not doing the team any favors. Five of the eight road games for St. Louis are against 2013 playoff teams and despite being one of the most centrally located franchises in the league the Rams have over 10,000 travel miles ahead. A lot of folks are buyers on the Rams this season for good reason but they will need to start strong and find a way to stay positive and fresh through a very tough slate to have a chance at the playoffs or a first division title since 2003.
_______________________________________________________________
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________
Note from Stan 'The Man: This is one National Football League Annual that will get plenty of use during the 2014 season, and is something every football handicapper should own. Easy for me to say, right? Although I obviously agree 100 percent with that sentiment, they’re not my words; they’re words taken from a review of this annual publication from the leading Sports Betting Outlets across the Globe!
We design this publication to be a handy resource to which you can constantly refer throughout the college and pro football seasons. Back again this year is all of the popular insight, information, analysis and statistics to which our thousands of loyal and dedicated readers have become accustomed. Our capsules for all 157 teams—32 pro and 125 college—include everything from past years’ game logs and situational records to the upcoming season’s. Outplay Factor and Power Ratings, both of which are generated by proprietary StatSystemsSports.net formulas and have proven to be great long-term handicapping tools.
We admittedly have our work cut out for us to match 2012's remarkably accurate predictions: Not only did we correctly call all four AFC division winners, but we came within one point of calling the exact margin of victory in Super Bowl XLVII. (That’s right, we predicted in July that the Baltimore Ravens would win Super Bowl XLVII by two points.) Not to mention our HUGE *6-Star Release with the Ravens Plus (+135 to +140) depending on where you shop on the Money-Line.
While we’re confident that this publication will provide you with a solid head start to your 2014 football handicapping season, our efforts certainly don’t stop here. Our team of Experts spends countless hours during the summer, fall and winter breaking down stats, trends and inside information to offer up keen betting insight all season long. Our world-renowned StatSystems Sports Reports, along with our very popular StatSheets take the analysis another few steps further, offering up remarkably valuable information for every college and pro game.
Two features you’ll want to be sure to check out in our Reports are Situational Team Power Trends, which uncover situations where a team outperforms or underperforms their normal level of play; and Super Situations, which uncover conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. The Super Situations are not team specific—the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.)—and their remarkable success rate over the years speaks for itself. Another way to get access to this valuable information is by ordering our StatSystems Sports Weekly Newsletter @ 570-828-4091.
Another one of the offerings from our family of handicapping products that help you expand your bankroll is the Best Bets we’ll be offering throughout the football season with college and pro picks from our staff of human handicappers, who combined for a 70% success rate (28-12-4) this past NFL postseason. You’ll also get access to the renowned Stan's Forecaster, which has proven to be an extremely successful long-term handicapping tool. By weighing several key factors, including recent statistical averages, schedule strength and home-field advantage.
'The Man's Forecaster is most accurate once a season is underway, as evident by a remarkable ATS success rate of 71.5% (123-49-6) on all 2013 NFL regular-season games played between September 25 and the end of the calendar year. Stan's Forecaster ended the 2013 NFL season (including the postseason) with a success rate of better than 68.6%, and it ended 2013 with a 66.4% win percentage that included a 69.7% success rate in the postseason.
As you go through this issue and check out our offerings at StatSystemsSports.net, you’ll notice that almost every bit of information in this National Football League Preview, and at our WebSite is dedicated to handicapping football. We always urge our readers to avoid confusing themselves by handicapping football with other publications that take a more main-stream view of the sport. They simply won’t have what it takes to help you succeed as a football bettor.
"So with that in mind, we’ll proudly put our products and StatSystems Sports head-tohead against any competition when it comes to making you a more knowledgeable and profitable handicapper!"
"Have a profitable season" -Stan 'The Man!
__________________________________
Ranking The Divisions
Systems Analyst James Vogel
When evaluating the prospects of National Football League teams in the futures market, there are few factors more important than the division they play in. Because every team plays every other team in their division twice, divisional strength can have a massive impact on how a season turns out. A weak division can lift a mediocre team to double-digit wins thanks to hollow victories. A very tough division, on the other hand, can hide a strong team behind an average record. As we sit here awaiting the start of the next NFL season, here is how the divisions currently rank from most competitive to least.
#1 NFC West: It’s hard to argue that there is a stronger division than one that includes two of the top three Super Bowl favorites. It’s not just Seattle and San Francisco that make this so challenging, though. Arizona won 10 games last year, and the Cardinals are well coached and possess enough talent to do it again. St. Louis is on the right path and should be better than the seven wins they had last year. Any team in the division could conceivably win any divisional matchup without making national headlines. It’s a war that will last all season long.
#2 NFC North: Green Bay is viewed as the strong favorite here. I’m not really buying it. I’m not certain that they are as good as people think. More significantly, I like the offseason that both the Lions and Bears had and expect them to both have strong years. Minnesota is a total pushover that is in for a very long year, but the other three teams are very strong and well-matched. Wins will not be easy in the division for any of them.
#3 AFC North: In the previous two divisions the issue has been a collection of strong teams, The problem here is that there are four teams, and we don’t know if any of them are going to be any good. Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Baltimore all have some upside but also big questions at keys spots that make it hard to really trust them. Cleveland probably will be lousy, and the loss of Josh Gordon really hurts, but you can never really know what the whole Johnny Football mystique turns into until he starts to play. You could tell me that any of the four teams was going to finish in any of four spots in the division and I probably wouldn’t argue with you. The AFC North defines parity — and not in the good way.
#4 NFC East: If Chip Kelly is as advertised then the Eagles should be able to win this division. It won’t be easy, though. Dallas hasn’t dominated the offseason, and they have made a science of underachieving, but they have some decent talent and should win more than they lose. RGIII and the Redskins can’t be as pathetic as they were last year. Eli Manning and the Giants don’t seem to be in a great place, but they don’t stay down for long and are proven winners. If the Eagles falter than any team could potentially pick up the pieces.
#5 AFC West: Denver should be strong again — as long as Peyton Manning’s neck doesn’t get reinjured. They are the Super Bowl favorites. San Diego is a team I have a lot of optimism for after a promising first year under a new coach who, mercifully, isn’t Norv Turner. Kansas City isn’t getting a lot of love but could easily build on the momentum built last year under Andy Reid. Oakland is Oakland, and that’s not a good thing — but it helps the records of the other three teams in the division. The teams in this division are in three clear tiers, but things could get interesting.
#6 NFC South: If you had asked me two or three years ago I would have guessed that this would have been by far the toughest division, but it just hasn’t worked out that way. New Orleans is the class of the division, and the gap seems large. Carolina is coming off a huge season but responded by seemingly deciding to play a season without wide receivers. Terrible offseason. Atlanta had an epically terrible year last year and responded by standing pat on the coaching staff. They improved on paper, but they had heading into the season last year, too, so it’s hard to know what to expect. Tampa Bay got lost and destroyed all organizational momentum. They made their best coaching decision in a long time, but who knows if it will be enough. It’s one team towering above a disappointing pack here.
#7 AFC South: If the Colts don’t win this division — by daylight — then they need to go right back to the drawing board. The Jaguars have a new quarterback and a whole lot of work left to do. Houston has defensive talent, but their new coach doesn’t seem to care about having a quarterback, and that could be a real issue. Tennessee is making big changes as well, and nothing is certain in the short term. It is not going to be a banner year for the division.
#8 AFC East: Ladies and gentlemen, your 2014-15 AFC East champs — the New England Patriots. Buffalo is probably the second best team in the division — and that really says all you need to say. The Jets are a circus. Miami doesn’t inspire confidence. This is a messy, messy division right now. Stop me if you have heard this one before — the Patriots will emerge with a record that will build postseason hype because they will sweep their division.
Five Hot NFL Bets Ready To Rebound In 2014
Systems Analyst William Stillman
As the calendar turns the page to the month of July, we are just weeks away from the start of 2014 National Football League training camps. Every year, in a league that has become known for its parity, there are always a few teams that rise from the ranks to win their division after missing the postseason the year before. Using StatSystemsSports.net 2014 NFL futures odds as a guide, here’s a look at five teams that have the best shot to pull off this feat this season.
•Pittsburgh Steelers: Odds to win the AFC North 2/1
The Steelers are coming off back-to-back eight-win seasons that have kept them out of the playoffs both years. The last time this non-playoff streak reached three years was all the way back in 2000 when they went 9-7 but still missed the postseason. With Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback, running an offense that added some additional weapons in running back LaGarrette Blount and wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, this unit could be in for a dramatic turnaround from the one that was ranked 20th in yards per game last season.
•Houston Texans: Odds to win the AFC South 5/2
Houston’s unexpected fall from first to worst was one of the most shocking developments in the NFL last year. While many experts wanted to pin the blame on former Texans’ quarterback Matt Schaub, the entire team had a hand in its current 14-game losing streak after a 2-0 start. The good news is that the stage is set for a rise towards the top of the AFC South with quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick getting a chance to revitalize his career after getting cut by Tennessee. The real reason for optimism is the addition of defensive end Jadeveon Clowney with the first overall pick in the draft, which will only make a good defense all that much better.
•Atlanta Falcons: Odds to win the NFC South 13/4
The Falcons were another team that fell off the face of the earth in 2013 with a record of 4-12 after three straight seasons of double-digit wins. They still have Matt Ryan at quarterback, and the addition of free agents such as guard Gabe Carimi and wide receiver Devin Hester should help this offense get back on track after ranking 20th in the NFL in scoring. Atlanta also used seven of its nine draft picks to address a defense that was ranked 27th in points allowed and 28th in yards allowed. The last time the Falcons won just four games was in 2007, and they went onto to win 11 games the following season under then first-year head coach Mike Smith.
•Chicago Bears: Odds to win the NFC North 11/4
The race for the NFC North title came down to the wire with Green Bay squeezing out the top spot at 8-7-1 while the Bears went 8-8. So it will probably only take a couple of additional victories to claim this year’s crown. Chicago made one of the biggest splashes in free agency with the signing of former Oakland defensive end Lamarr Houston, and it also added defensive end Jared Allen from rival Minnesota to address a defense that fell to 30th in the league in both points (29.9) and average yards allowed (394.6). There are no pressing issues on the other side of the ball with an offense that scored an average of 27.8 points a game - second-highest in the NFL. This will be offensive guru’s Marc Trestmen’s second season at the helm as the Bears head coach, so there could be bigger and better things from this unit under veteran quarterback Jay Cutler in 2014.
•New York Giants: Odds to win the NFC East 3/1
The Giants dug themselves into a hole they could never climb out of in 2013 by losing their first six games under the weight of a multitude of turnovers. Quarterback Eli Manning cleaned up his act after throwing 15 interceptions in those first six games with just 13 picks the rest of the way, and New York responded with a 7-3 record in its final 10 games. Assuming that the Giants avoid another disastrous start in 2014, it looks like 10 wins could easily win the NFC East this season. This is still a team with a veteran head coach in Tom Coughlin and a veteran quarterback in Manning that have produced two Super Bowl titles since 2006, so winning the division is a goal that is well within reach in 2014.
________________________________________________________
Featured Player Stats & Trends
Systems Analyst Larry Hertner
•Top QB/WR Combination Trend
System Analysis: Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall are 0-21-2 ATS (-9.0 ppg) in their careers after a game where Cutler had at least 20 completions and 1 or 2 touchdown passes, if at least three of the completions went to Marshall.
One of the exciting things about the ability to run player trends using our Huge NFL database is being able to do so in combination. The time where this will generally make the most sense is when looking at a quarterback and one of his favorite pass catching targets. For instance, it is easy to isolate games where both Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski had big games.
When you think of a QB and his favorite target, a combination that should immediately come to mind is Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall. When the situation warrants heavy passing, Cutler is known for force feeding the ball to his go-to receiver in Marshall. Cutler and Marshall have played together in two stops, and both are reflected with this trend. What this trend isolates is a game where Cutler had a large number of completions and an average number of TD throws, if Marshall was at least modestly involved in receiving his targets. For Cutler, zoning in on Marshall can be is bad going forward. Watch for this trend to be active several times in 2014, after seven such occasions in 2013.
•Player-Based Trends: QBS
There is no player that controls a game more than the quarterback. They are the only player on the field with the ball in their hands in half of the plays every game. As such, it makes sense that quarterbacks have the best of the player-based trends, and that their performance in one game or against a certain team would have a great bearing on future games. Below are 10 quarterback trends from some of the elite signal callers in the NFL.
-- Tom Brady is 11-0 ATS (10.7 ppg) since 2004 after a game where he completed less than 50% of his passes.
-- Drew Brees is 11-0-1 ATS (10.4 ppg) in his career in Sunday games, following a game where he threw less than 30 passes and had at least one interception.
-- Jay Cutler is 0-9-2 ATS (-3.7 ppg) since 2011 after a game where he threw at least 33 passes and had less than 28 completions.
-- Robert Griffin III is 6-0 ATS (9.2 ppg) in his career after a game where he had 10-15 completions.
-- Andrew Luck is 15-0-1 ATS (8.6 ppg) in his career after a Sunday game where he threw between 35 and 50 passes and completed over 45% of them.
-- Aaron Rodgers is 6-0 ATS (13.3 ppg) since November 2008 with at least full rest following a game where he did not throw a TD pass.
-- Tony Romo is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 ppg) since December 2007 if not an underdog, coming off a game where he completed at least 73% of his passes.
-- Matt Stafford is 0-10 ATS (-8.3 ppg) in his career after a loss where they scored at least 14 points and he had 27-36 completions.
-- Russell Wilson is 10-0 ATS (10.3 ppg) in his career after a game where he completed at least 72% of his passes.
-- Philip Rivers is 13-0 ATS (15.4 ppg) since October 25, 2009 after a game where he threw 33-39 passes and they had between 210 and 380 team passing yards.
•Player-Based Trends: RBS
While they don’t affect a game to the same degree as a quarterback, running backs are important to the outcome, and can often be the key player in 20-25 plays a game. However, they are players that see their usage and success vary widely from one game to another, and can be very matchup dependent. In particular, previous usage volume is interesting in regards to running backs’ performance. Below are 10 running back trends from some of the top ball carriers in the NFL.
-- Jamaal Charles is 0-7 ATS (-11.4 ppg) when between a four-point favorite and nine-point dog, after a game where he ran for at least 110 yards.
-- Matt Forte is 0-7 ATS (-4.9 ppg) since November 2012 after a game where he had less than 15 carries.
-- Arian Foster is 0-8 ATS (-7.4 ppg) when he had between four and 14 rushes last game.
-- Chris Johnson is 0-11-2 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since December 26, 2010 after a game where he had at least 20 rushes for between 71 and 189 yards.
-- Maurice Jones-Drew is 0-7 ATS (-10.2 ppg) in his career following a game where he ran for over 120 yards and had a rush of at least 39 yards.
-- Marshawn Lynch is 12-0 ATS (13.1 ppg) since 2011 the week after a game where he ran for at least 113 yards.
-- Ryan Mathews is 8-0 ATS (15.5 ppg) since December 2011 with less than 10 days rest after a 100 yard rushing game.
-- LeSean McCoy is 0-10 ATS (-15.2 ppg) since 2011 when he had more than 80 rushing yards of at least 425 total yards of offense from his team last game.
-- Demarco Murray is 0-7 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since November 20, 2011 after a game where he had more than 125 total yards.
-- CJ Spiller is 0-7 ATS (-8.1 ppg) after a game where he had more than 15 carries for between 45 and 135 yards.
•Player-Based Trends: WRS
While wide receivers don’t get the volume of touches as quarterbacks or running backs do, they are some of the most skilled players in the game. Additionally, they have unique big play ability. It is also a position with some of the clear-cut top players at the position from year-to-year. Below are 10 wide receiver trends from some of the best pass catchers in the NFL.
-- Dwayne Bowe is 9-0 ATS (11.4 ppg) in his career coming off an away loss as no more than a 14 point dog where he had at least six receptions.
-- Antonio Brown is 9-0 ATS (8.3 ppg) in his career after having more than 90 and less than 150 receiving yards last game.
-- Eric Decker is 9-0 ATS (13.5 ppg) with at least five days rest coming off a game where he had at least 90 receiving yards.
-- AJ Green is 10-0 ATS (13.5 ppg) since November 2012 with 4-8 days rest after a game where they had at least 90 receiving yards.
-- Vincent Jackson is 7-0 ATS (11.1 ppg) in his career after a game where he had at least one catch but less than 15 yards.
-- Andre Johnson is 0-10 ATS (-10.3 ppg) since 2008 after a game where he had at least 10 catches for at least 143 yards.
-- Jeremy Maclin is 0-10 ATS (-15.1 ppg) in his career coming off a home game where he had at least six receptions.
-- Brandon Marshall is 0-14-1 ATS (-12.3 ppg) in his career following a game where he had at least 10 catches in a game where he had less than 12 days rest.
-- Jordy Nelson is 8-0 ATS (11.8 ppg) after a game where he had just one catch for 18 or fewer yards.
-- Calvin Johnson is 0-12-1 ATS (-7.3 ppg) in his career past week one when he caught at least seven passes against in a loss the last time he faced this team. Note: Active weeks 5, 7, 8 and 14 in 2014.
'BETCHA DIDN'T KNOW'
Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor
No Place Like Home : In an era of parity, it is rare that any team should be made more than a TD underdog at home. In the more modern salary cap era, teams are bunched closer together. It stands to reason then, that this betting system would be even better over the more recent time frame. That is indeed the case, with home underdogs of more than seven points going 121-83-2 ATS since 1997.
Other Things To Consider
-- Factoring in three points each way for the home and road teams, it stands to reason a home team as more than a TD underdog is comparable to a road team that is more than a 13-point dog. Road dogs of more than 13 points have been solid as well, going 122-98-2 ATS (55.5%).
-- This system has been a very strong 7-1 ATS during the opening week of the season. This makes sense as if there is ever a time where not enough is known about a team to make them such big underdogs, it is during week one. That carries on through the early season, going 53-34-1 ATS during the first six weeks of the season.
-- Teams coming off a huge loss have dominated this system. These big home dogs off a loss by at least 27 points are 32-12-1 ATS.
-- It is harder to sneak up on a team when it is a primetime game. These huge home dogs in non-Sunday and Sunday night games are an average 27-25 ATS.
Summary: In most cases, bettors should avoid the allure of betting heavily on home dog for that reason alone. However, when that team is an underdog by more than a touchdown, it is a green light to play on that team.
___________________________________________________
September Trends To Watch
Systems Analyst Todd Smith
With Week #4 of the National Football League preseason coming to a close on Thursday night, and with all 16 teams hitting the gridiron. That means it is now September, and with it an array of NFL handicapping team trends are suddenly in play for fans and sports junkies alike. Listed below are some of the best and worst team performances during the opening month of the year. Team breakdowns include records at home, away, as a favorite, as an underdog, and in division games. Note: All results are ATS (Against The Spread) unless noted otherwise.
Home Teams
•Keep An Eye On (Good): The NFC North's Detroit Lions have been fast starters at home with a 27-16 ATS record (62.7%) in the opening month of the season, and will play host to the New York football Giants (9/8) and divisional foe Green Bay Packers (9/21).
•Keep An Eye On (Bad): Here we have home teams that frustrate wagering home fans. Cincinnati is the worst of the bunch at a miserable 13-25 versus the number (26.0%) and they will face the Atlanta Falcons along with the Tennessee Titans in Week’s #2 and #3.
--New head coach Jay Gruden will attempt to break the negative cycle in our Nation’s Capital as Washington sits 15-26 against the spread, just 36.5 percent when the Jacksonville Jaguars (9/14) and the New York Giants (9/25) arrive to face the team without an approved nickname any more.
--The Arizona Cardinals will have two shots to improve on their money-burning 13-22 against the spread record (37.1%) with the AFC West San Diego Chargers in the desert on the opening Monday night of the 2014 campaign and division rival San Francisco 13 days later.
Away Teams
•Bad: It has not mattered if Sam Bradford has been hurt or not or any other Rams quarterback for that matter, St. Louis has been a superior Play Against road team at 14-29 ATS, 32.5%. Because of an early bye on this year’s schedule there is just one chance to bet against the Rams: at Raymond James Stadium versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9/14).
•Keep An Eye On (Bad): This has been an unsolved mystery for years why the Pittsburgh Steelers have been a bad bet at 14-27 ATS (34.1%), and never quite ready to begin the season. Let’s see how they do on a short week at the Baltimore Ravens (9/11) and 10 days later at the Carolina Panthers.
--As good as Detroit has been at home during the month of September, that’s how bad they are away from the Motor City, just 37.2 percent at 16-27 versus the number dating back to 1971. Keep a watchful eye on them at the Carolina Panthers (9/14) and two weeks later in the New Jersey Meadowlands to take on the New York Jets.
Favorites
•Keep An Eye On (Good): The Seattle Seahawks, winners of Super Bowl XLVIII are moneymakers out of the gate at 27-15 ATS (64.2%) and should be favored in all three confrontations against very good competition, facing the Packers, at San Diego and a rematch with Denver in the first three weeks. Given the fact they are 17-1 straight-up and 13-5 versus the number at home the past two seasons behind QB Russell Wilson they will be hard to fade at CenturyLink Field.
•Bad: September has been a very bad month for several teams when listed as favorites. Let’s start with Carolina at 7-17 ATS (29.1%) and since they are lacking perimeter playmakers, they could be in trouble during the initial three weeks of the 2014 campaign being anticipated as favorites.
--Most likely Arizona (7-16 ATS, 30.4%) will only be favored once and that is the opener with the Chargers. With all the information about Sam Bradford and his injured knee flying around the internet fast and furiously... and some of its conflicting, the Rams (12-24 ATS, 33.3%) are a Week #1 home favorite versus the Minnesota Vikings, but Week #3 when Dallas is on the shores of the Mississippi River is up in the air right now.
•Keep An Eye On (Bad): As mentioned above, the Cincinnati Bengals will have two home encounters and will be dishing out points and with an 11-21 spread record in that role at 34.3 percent. You might have to look to the other side.
Underdogs
•Good: Especially in the Tony Romo era, betting against Dallas has been profitable to say the least. Nevertheless, the Cowboys have been money as underdogs the first three to four weeks of the season at 23-10 versus the number 69.6%. While we don’t know for certain, there is a possibility the Cowboys could be underdogs the entire month facing San Francisco (9/7) at Tennessee (9/14), at St. Louis (9/21) and when Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints travel to Texas on the final Sunday of September. Watch closely.
•Bad: Pittsburgh’s pathetic road record has translated into crummy results as an underdog, sitting at 9-20 against the spread, with just a thirty-one percent return on investment. Those two away outings to visit the Ravens and Panthers could mean more Play Against opportunities for NFL bettors.
Division
•Good: The Kansas City Chiefs have annually fared well against AFC West rivals early on in the season, recording a 22-11 against the spread record (66.6%), and makes the trip to Mile High Stadium to take on Denver in Week #2 to see if they can make their good fortune continue.
•Keep An Eye On (Bad): If you think you have seen Cincinnati’s name a lot as a Play Against squad in our Annual September Team Watch Article you are absolutely correct. And they fit again in AFC North action making the trip over to Baltimore on September 7th with a 12-20 ATS record in division action.
_____________________________________________________________
2014 AFC East Preview
The National Football League draft gets all the attention in the spring but the recent release of the 2014 schedule can be a more telling factor in how a team will fare next season. Take a look at the four teams in the AFC East in this schedule preview. This certainly looks like New England’s division to lose with the East title in 10 of the last 11 seasons for the Patriots but this could be a competitive division from top-to-bottom with another year under the belt for three young starting quarterbacks for the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets.
BUFFALO BILLS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .500 (14/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 6 (four home, two away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 8,822
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 1 (one Thursday)
The Bills have not won a division title since 1995 and the odds will be steep on Buffalo ending the streak this season. Buffalo has not had a winning season since 2004 and the Bills have not made the playoffs since 1999. In a transition season with first year head coach Doug Marrone last season Buffalo wound up 6-10 but there were some impressive performances with the Bills scoring 20 or more points in the first seven games of last season including getting wins over Carolina and Baltimore. Buffalo won three division games last season and E.J. Manuel did enough to lead to some optimism for the future, especially with the draft pick of Sammy Watkins coming in this season to boost the offense.
Buffalo will play a reasonable schedule in 2014 with only two road games against 2013 playoff teams and only one trip to the west coast. Buffalo has a central Week #9 bye week and they don’t have to give up a home game to play in Toronto for a change this season. Buffalo will draw winnable home games outside of the division with Minnesota and Cleveland visiting and they will catch teams in coaching transitions early in the season facing the Texans, Lions, and Vikings in the first half of the season.
The Bills do have a daunting December schedule with road games in three of the final four weeks including trips to Denver and New England with the home game coming against Green Bay. That means the start of the season will be even more critical for Buffalo. Making the playoffs seems like a reach with the Bills and the rest of the AFC East facing an AFC West division that produced three 2013 playoff teams but the NFC North was a weak division last season and that is the inter-conference draw for this division. Finishing in fourth place last season allows the Bills to play the Browns but drawing Houston might not feel like a fourth place game if the Texans bounce back after a bizarre 2013 season.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .508 (12/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 6 (four home, two away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 13,835 (includes London)
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 5 (one Thursday, three Sunday night, one Monday)
Despite great distractions last season Miami wound up 8-8 and by virtue of losing the tiebreaker with the Jets the Dolphins will score a third place schedule this season. Miami had a negative point differential despite the even record but the Dolphins should have stability as Joe Philbin remains at head coach through the Richie Incognito scandal and Ryan Tannehill will lead the Dolphins for a third straight season, a rarity in recent years for this franchise. The Dolphins were a worse team statistically than the record indicated and 2013 was a year of streaks for the team, starting 3-0 before losing four straight games and also winning four of five late in the season.
Miami was 8-6 heading into division games in the final two weeks of the season against the Bills and the Jets before getting outscored 39-7 in the two final games to blow a chance at the playoffs. Five of the eight wins came by four or fewer points last season so this is a team that could head backwards without some of the same fortune but the Dolphins also lost four games by four or fewer points in 2013. Miami opens the season with the Patriots and Chiefs in the first two home games of the season and the Dolphins will only play seven true road games as they take on the Raiders in London.
That trip comes early in the season in Week #4 as the Dolphins have an early Week #5 bye. November may be the key month for Miami with games at home against San Diego and Buffalo and road games against Detroit, Denver, and the New York Jets. To have a shot at the playoffs Miami likely needs to be able to come through that stretch at .500 heading into the final four weeks where they host three of the final four games. The Dolphins have four of six games against 2013 playoff teams at home and because they play in London the Dolphins do not travel further west than Denver this season as five road games come in the eastern time zone.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .516 (10/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 6 (two home, four away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 10,181
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 5 (one Thursday, three Sunday night, one Monday)
The Patriots have won the AFC East 10 of the last 11 years, only falling short in an 11-5 campaign in the season that Tom Brady was injured. This has been one of the most consistently successful franchises in professional sports for the last decade and there is little reason to expect much of a decline in 2014 coming off a 12-4 2013 season where New England eventually lost in the AFC Championship. New England will open the season with three of the first four games of the season on the road for a challenging start to the season but it is not a daunting stretch of games with only two of the first eight games of the season coming against teams that had a winning record last season.
New England does have four road games against 2014 playoff teams however and they have some challenging back-to-back sets ahead, playing Kansas City and Cincinnati, Chicago and Denver, and Green Bay and San Diego in back-to-back weeks throughout the season. New England will play five primetime games including three Sunday night games if the schedule holds so there will be some late night travel and taxing scheduling ahead for the Patriots. The first place schedule brings the Colts and Bengals on the schedule and New England was only 4-2 in division games last season with several of those wins coming in very tight games despite this being a relatively weak division last season.
The Patriots had shaky defensive statistics last season despite a strong scoring margin and New England was just 4-4 in road games last season as this team has over-performed its talent in recent years. The track record for New England on personnel decisions and in coaching is impressive however and with three young quarterbacks and three coaches with questionable track records in the division it seems likely that a sixth consecutive division title is very possible even with a fairly difficult 2014 slate.
NEW YORK JETS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2012: .520 (9/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 6 (two home, four away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 9,043
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 1
•Primetime Games: 3 (one Thursday, two Monday)
The Jets were expected to be at the bottom of the league last season after a summer full of problems. New York surprised many with an 8-8 season though the Jets were -97 in point differential. New York has made a lot of moves to upgrade the offense but improving on the mistakes that Geno Smith made last season will be of critical importance for the Jets to stay competitive. New York had wins over both New England and New Orleans last season and at times the defense was very impressive but the Jets also allowed 30 or more points four times last season.
The 2014 schedule features a second place slate but that may not be such a bad thing as Pittsburgh and Tennessee are the two teams drawn, hardly overly threatening second place teams. The Jets do have four road games against 2013 playoff teams and the early season schedule is challenging with three consecutive games against the NFC facing the Packers, Bears, and Lions in consecutive weeks before a tough October lines up with games against the Chargers, Broncos, and Patriots in succession. That start could lead to disaster and major personnel moves unless the Jets pick up an upset or two.
The tough first half schedule should make the opener against Oakland of paramount importance. If New York can survive without digging too big of a hole in the first half, the second half schedule is favorable. The final four road games are not overly daunting playing at Buffalo, at Minnesota, and at Tennessee before the season finale at Miami. The Jets do face a Thursday game and two Monday night games so there will be some short week games ahead which can take a toll. The Jets have a late Week #11 bye week and overall fairly reasonable travel outside of the cross country trek to San Diego in Week #5.
________________________________________________________________
2014 AFC North Preview
The National Football League draft gets all the attention in the spring but the recent release of the 2014 schedule can be a more telling factor in how a team will fare next season. Take a look at the four teams in the AFC North in this schedule preview. The Bengals, Ravens, and Steelers each have three division titles in the last nine years but for a change the Browns have grabbed some of the spotlight this spring. The North should be a competitive division in 2014 with all four teams expecting to be in the playoff mix.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .461 (28/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 6 (three home, three away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 6,425
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 3 (1 Thursday, 1 Sunday Night, 1 Monday)
After the surprise Super Bowl run two seasons ago the Ravens fell to 8-8 last season and missed the playoffs after blowout losses in the final two games of the season. The Ravens lost five of seven games in the middle of the season last season with each loss by six or fewer points as this was a competitive team that was not far from being more of a factor in the AFC. After allowing 49 points in the opening game the Ravens were formidable on defense most of the season until the final two weeks but the offense was very disappointing, particularly in the running game.
Highly paid quarterback Joe Flacco also failed to reach 300 yards passing in any of the final 10 games of the season. Baltimore catches a break with a third place schedule after losing the tiebreaker with Pittsburgh in the 2013 standings. It is certainly debatable whether playing San Diego and Miami is preferable to playing Kansas City and New York in that draw however. The entire North will play the AFC South this season which should provide an opportunity for the North teams to move up in the AFC but the NFC South draw could be challenging.
Baltimore has one of the tougher draws among the division in those matchups having to play on the road against Indianapolis, Houston, and New Orleans. The Ravens open the season with three consecutive division games so the Baltimore will know where it stands early and getting the road trip to Cleveland in early should be an advantage given the transition for the Browns. The Ravens will actually have five of the six division games complete by Week #9 and the back half of the schedule looks more favorable than the front as the Baltimore plays teams that combined to go 18-46 last season in the final four weeks.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .469 (23/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 5 (two home, three away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 4,857
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 1 back-to-back-to-back
•Primetime Games: 3 (1 Thursday, 1 Sunday Night, 1 Monday)
The Bengals have improved in the win column four straight seasons, making the playoffs each of the last three years despite going 0-3 in the postseason. The Bengals have the most stability in the division which is a surprise given the tumultuous run for this franchise in the previous two decades. The 2014 schedules does not look overly difficult with only five games against 2013 playoff teams and one of the weaker win percentages for opponents based on last season’s record.
That said the Bengals are the only team in the division that has play Denver or New England, getting both of them in primetime games this season. In a very tough first half of the schedule the Bengals will play both games with Baltimore plus games with three 2013 playoffs teams in the first eight weeks. Cincinnati will also have to play three consecutive road games in November, going from New Orleans to Houston, and then to Tampa.
The final four weeks could be very tough with home games against the Steelers and Broncos and road division games in cold weather against the Browns and Steelers. Cincinnati has to play five of the final seven games of the season on the road as Cincinnati has what looks like the toughest schedule in the division, also having to play at Indianapolis and at New Orleans. Denver and Seattle were the only two teams in the NFL to have a stronger point differential than the Bengals last season so this has to be considered an elite team but it would not be a surprise to see a slight decline for the Bengals in 2014.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .465 (26/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 5 (three home, two away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 3,634
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 1 (1 Thursday)
The Browns have been in the news a lot this spring, some of it with excitement with Johnny Manziel drafted but Cleveland also was dealt very tough news with Josh Gordon potentially suspended for the season after his breakout 2013 season. Cleveland had to go through three quarterbacks last season and finding stability at that position has been a constant challenge for the organization. Adding Manziel to look over Brian Hoyer’s shoulder may not be the ideal approach but Hoyer was not able to stay healthy last season.
The schedule for the Browns in 2014 looks promising with only two 2013 playoff teams on the schedule in the first 13 weeks. That lighter slate early could ease the coaching transition with Mike Pettine taking over this season. The Browns lost the final seven games of last season and another tough finish could be ahead with four of the final six games on the road and a closing slate of Indianapolis, Cincinnati, at Carolina, at Baltimore.
Each of the last three seasons Cleveland has gone 1-7 on the road but there are winnable road games on the schedule this season, playing at Tennessee, at Jacksonville, at Atlanta, and at Buffalo outside of the division. Cleveland will have the second lightest travel schedule in the NFL in terms of distance, going fewer than 4,000 miles for eight road games with no game further west than Nashville. While the excitement is growing in Cleveland and the Browns will get more national play in the media this season, breaking out of the basement in the division still seems like a long shot.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .469 (23/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 6 (four home, two away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 3,537
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 4
•Primetime Games: 5 (1 Thursday, 2 Sunday Night, 2 Monday)
The Steelers wound up 8-8 last season despite starting 0-4 and eventually sitting at 2-6 at the midpoint of the season. Pittsburgh’s late season surge still left them short of the playoffs and it was an atypical Steelers squad that really struggled defensively. The Steelers were also a very poor rushing team on offense and Pittsburgh draws a second place schedule in 2014. Pittsburgh has the fewest travel miles in 2014 of any team in the NFL as they will not travel further west than Nashville but the Steelers will have some tough travel situations with four separate sets of back-to-back road games.
Despite missing the playoffs the last two seasons Pittsburgh will play five primetime games including playing three national TV night games in a five-week span in the middle of the season. Pittsburgh had a painful start to the 2013 season but on paper a more promising first half seems likely even with four of the first six games on the road. Four of the first six opponents this season won four or fewer games last season so the Steelers could rise to the top of the division early.
Both games with the Bengals are in the final five weeks of the season as are tricky home games with New Orleans and Kansas City as well as a road date with the Falcons as the closing month will be challenging. The Steelers are one of two teams to have a late week 12 bye, the latest in the league, and it will remain to be seen if a team that was injury plagued the past two seasons can hold up without a break for much of the season.
______________________________________________________________
2014 AFC South Preview
The National Football League draft gets all the attention in the spring but the recent release of the 2014 schedule can be a more telling factor in how a team will fare next season. Take a look at the four teams in the AFC South in this schedule preview. The Colts ran away with the division last season as the only winning team in the group but improvement is likely ahead for Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Houston even through some big changes. Whether there is enough to bridge the gap with the favorite in one season remains to be seen.
HOUSTON TEXANS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .441 (30/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 4 (three home, one away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 9,292
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 3
•Primetime Games: 2 (1 Thursday, 1 Monday Night)
Just about everything that could have gone wrong for the Texans went wrong last season as a team that had been expected to be a top AFC contender fell to just 2-14. While the poor results led to a coaching change it also led to great position in the NFL Draft and a favorable schedule ahead in 2014 as the Texans will be a team expected to bounce back into contention. The quarterback position remains a key question mark for Bill O’Brien as he returns to the NFL as T.J. Yates and Case Keenum are back with limited starting experience and veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick has been added to the mix as Houston opted not to draft a quarterback early but did pick Tom Savage in the later rounds.
Houston will only play four games against 2013 playoff teams as a result of the fourth place schedule and the lone road game versus a 2013 playoff team will come in the division at Indianapolis. Houston will play just one 2013 playoff team in the first eight weeks of the schedule which could help in the transition season for the Texans. Houston does have significant travel on the schedule including a west coast to east coast back-to-back set early in the season and a few other long flights.
The Texans will also have to play on the road after a road Monday night appearance and there are three sets of back-to-back road games ahead. Houston is definitely a team that could see a turnaround with turnovers after having great misfortune early in the season to lose several close games but the quarterback position is typically the key to improving in the turnover department and that is still an unsettled area for the team. Facing the AFC North and NFC East teams completes a relatively favorable schedule for this entire division and it is almost a certainty that the Texans will improve in the win column in 2014.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .430 (32/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 4 (three home, one away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 5,605
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 5 (1 Thursday, 2 Sunday Night, 2 Monday Night)
The Colts made several moves to upgrade on offense in the offseason but the defense certainly has some areas of concern, especially with the recent suspension looming for Robert Mathis. For back-to-back seasons the Colts have won 11 games despite questionable point differentials and favorable bounces with turnovers and close game results but this is a team that will be feared in the AFC picture again in 2014. Indianapolis went 6-0 in the division last season and the Colts will be favored to hit that mark again in 2014 with the rest of the division featuring two new coaching staffs and unproven quarterbacks.
The Colts will face the weakest schedule in the NFL in terms of 2013 win percentage thanks the three division foes in the South combining to go 13-35 last season. The Colts will be the only team in the division to face New England and Denver but three of the four games against 2013 playoff teams will come in Indianapolis where the Colts are 13-4 the last two seasons counting the comeback playoff win last year. The only road game against a winning team from 2013 will be in the opener against the Broncos, a team Indianapolis beat last season. In the NFC East draw the Colts will get the 2013 champion Eagles at home and in the AFC North draw the Colts will get the Ravens and Bengals at home for likely the preferable track in those games.
The Colts have a Week #10 bye week which should come at a good time in the later part of the season and it comes before a huge game with the Patriots, the team that bounced the Colts from the playoffs last season. Indianapolis does have to play three of the final four games of the season on the road but the final six games of the season will come against teams that combined to go 28-68 last season. Indianapolis also has very minimal travel requirements in terms of mileage with only two trips to the east coast and no games west of Denver. While the scoring and turnover numbers for the Colts cry for regression, Indianapolis has another great schedule to continue to pace this division.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .453 (29/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 5 (one home, four away) Miles Traveled for 9 road/neutral games: 12,125 (includes London)
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 1 (1 Thursday)
The Jaguars have the lowest win total projection in the National Football League for 2014 and despite Jacksonville winning four games last season the Jaguars had the worst point differential in the NFL at -202. Three wins for Jacksonville came within this division and with the Titans and Texans starting over with new coaching staffs there may be an opportunity for the Jaguars to move up. Jacksonville rolled the dice with Blake Bortles as its top draft pick to inherit the quarterback position but it is not yet clear if Jacksonville will proceed with the rookie in 2014 or if they will give him some time to develop.
Jacksonville obviously had many other problem areas last season but quarterback has been a glaring area of mistakes and limited production in recent seasons. Jacksonville will actually have a somewhat challenging schedule relative to its division foes as they play four road games against 2013 playoff teams and the Jaguars will surrender a home game to play in London. The Jaguars open the season with road games in three of the first four weeks with three of the first four games are also coming against 2013 playoff teams so a strong start to the season seems unlikely.
With the tough early schedule it might be easy for Jacksonville to slip into a another year of rebuilding and go with Bortles to gain experience for 2015 as contending for the postseason seems like a long shot this season. Jacksonville also has tough road games at Cincinnati and at Baltimore late in the season and they play Tennessee and Houston three times in the final four weeks of the season, negating to chance to catch those division foes early in their transition seasons. Finishing in third place in the division last season also means playing San Diego and Miami, two quality teams that appear far ahead of the Jaguars and far ahead of the fourth place draw that Houston will get in 2014. All in all the Jaguars were dealt arguably the toughest schedule in the AFC South and it could be another challenging season.
TENNESSEE TITANS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .438 (31/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 5 (one home, four away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 4,765
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 2 (1 Thursday, 1 Monday Night)
The Titans competed very well at times and were barely negative in point differential in a 7-9 2013 season. After three lackluster seasons Tennessee made a coaching change and they pulled in former Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt who was a prominent candidate for several vacancies. The Titans will feature a brutally tough early season schedule in the transition with three of the first four games on the road and playing teams that combined to go 41-23 last season in the first four weeks. The schedule softens substantially in October for the Titans but Tennessee has a very challenging road schedule overall this season with four 2013 playoff teams plus a Ravens team only a season removed from a Super Bowl title.
Tennessee has to take on the Chiefs and Jets in the second place draw and they will face NFC East champion Philadelphia on the road as well. Tennessee has another set of tough road games following its Week #9 bye week and while the Titans will travel the third fewest miles in the league it is a daunting road schedule overall. Tennessee also drafted offensive players in the early rounds including offensive lineman Taylor Lewan in the first round, an area that seemingly already was a strong point for the team.
The Titans impressed on defense early last season but by the end of the year it was a team that struggled down the stretch and the 7-9 record was a bit misleading as Tennessee won the final two games against Jacksonville and Houston, teams that had clearly mailed in the season and did not want to surrender draft position. The Titans also must replace Chris Johnson at running back and Tennessee has lacked playmakers in the receiving corps in recent seasons. Tennessee seems less likely than Houston to jump to immediate success with the coaching change in this division with the schedule playing a big role. The tough first month could lead to big questions and potential changes at key positions and Jake Locker is yet to prove he can stay healthy.
________________________________________________________________
2014 AFC West Preview
The National Football League draft gets all the attention in the spring but the recent release of the 2014 schedule can be a more telling factor in how a team will fare next season. Take a look at the four teams in the AFC West in this schedule preview. Three teams from the West made the playoffs last season with the Broncos winning the AFC Championship. The schedules for this division are among the toughest in the NFL in 2014 however so a decline is very possible across the board.
DENVER BRONCOS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .570 (2/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 9 (four home, five away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 10,131
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2 including a back-to-back-to-back
•Primetime Games: 5 (1 Thursday, 3 Sunday night, 1 Monday night)
From 1999 to 2007 there was a clear trend of the Super Bowl loser struggling the next season with seven of those nine runner-ups falling to a losing record the next season. The last two seasons the Super Bowl loser wound up back in the conference championship game but in the last 20 years no Super Bowl loser has returned to the big game the next season, a troubling trend for the Broncos. Denver made some aggressive off-season moves notably bringing in DeMarcus Ware as the Broncos know that with Peyton Manning the window for a championship is narrow at this stage in his career.
Denver will face a much tougher schedule in 2014 however after coasting to brilliant numbers in the regular season last year through one of the weakest schedules in the league. Denver has to play nine 2013 playoff teams this season as the AFC West plays the very tough NFC West teams and the Broncos will draw Indianapolis and Cincinnati as well and the entire AFC East. Outside of the division the Broncos have several very challenging road games, playing at Seattle, at New England, and at Cincinnati and in eight road games Denver faces teams that were a combined 75-53 last season. Denver has a stretch of three consecutive road games in November and the challenge of that run is increased by starting across the country in a huge game at New England.
The primetime schedule could also wear on the Broncos with five night games ahead including having to play three division games following up primetime night games either Sunday or Monday. Denver is an older team and an early Week #4 bye might not be ideal. The first three games of the season are very tough with the Colts, Chiefs, and Seahawks in the first three weeks before the bye week. Denver also closes the season with three of the last five games on the road including potential cold weather games in Kansas City and Cincinnati. Early in the season the Broncos will play the Chiefs, Seahawks, Cardinals, Jets, 49ers, and Chargers in succession as the offense will likely see a huge step back in production simply based on the quality of defenses faced compared with last season. Denver is still the team to beat in the AFC but it will be a much tougher path in 2014.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .559 (7/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 7 (four home, three away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 10,593
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 1
•Primetime Games: 3 (1 Thursday, 1 Sunday night, 1 Monday night)
The Chiefs went from 2-14 to 11-5 in one season with Andy Reid. The schedule played a role but Kansas City had a lot of talent on the roster following the disastrous and tragic 2012 season. The Chiefs will be a prime candidate to slip in 2014 with a much tougher slate and the league better prepared for how the offense will look as the Chiefs were one of the early surprise teams last season. Kansas City had an epic meltdown in the playoffs last season which could be difficult to overcome but if there is any consolation the Chiefs have the easiest schedule in the division in terms of 2013 win percentage.
Kansas City only plays three 2013 playoff teams outside of the division though it is a very tough group featuring New England, San Francisco, and Seattle. The Chiefs get the Patriots and Seahawks at home as they will avoid two of the toughest venues in the league unlike some of the division counterparts. The schedule before a Week #6 bye is brutally tough with road games in Denver and San Francisco plus a Monday night game with the Patriots but the slate is reasonable in the back half. The final four road games of the season are all against teams that missed the playoffs in 2013 and the only set of back-to-back road games comes early in the year.
The road games with San Diego and Denver come in relatively favorable situations for the Chiefs as they will catch the Broncos coming off a huge opening game with the Colts and they have a bye week before heading to San Diego. In a division race that could be very tight it could make a huge difference if the Chiefs are able to steal a big road win in the division. The Chiefs will take on substantial travel miles this season despite being about as close to the middle of the country as can be as Kansas City plays every road game outside of its own central time zone. The Chiefs have a very difficult schedule and falling from 11 wins would not be a surprise but this is not a team that should endure a significant collapse and Kansas City might actually have the best path in the division.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .578 (1/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 9 (four home, five away)
•Miles Traveled for 9 road/neutral games: 20,251 (includes London)
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 1
•Primetime Games: 1 (1 Thursday)
While the Raiders have been a dysfunctional franchise most of the last two decades with short term plans and a constant state of transition, there is a lot to like about what the Raiders did in the off-season. Oakland did some positive things last year in a 4-12 first season under Dennis Allen as they ran the ball with some success and were capable defensively especially against the run. The offense showed some promise even battling through three different starting quarterbacks and fighting injuries. Oakland picked up several quality veterans in free agency led by Matt Schaub to take over at quarterback as well as several pieces on defense.
Oakland also had a draft class that was well reviewed led by Khalil Mack and several other defensive players to add depth. Unfortunately for the Raiders success may have to wait another season as the AFC West looks like the most difficult division in the conference and Oakland has drawn one of the league’s absolute toughest schedules. The Raiders will play nine games against 2013 playoff teams as a result of every game in the division fitting that role and the fourth place draw of Cleveland and Houston looks fairly daunting relative to most seasons as those teams could be greatly improved even in transition seasons. Oakland has road games at New England and at Seattle, nearly impossible places to win and the final month looks brutal with a home date with the 49ers and the road meetings with the Chiefs and Broncos.
The first half of the schedule is more reasonable for the Raiders as they only play one winning team from 2013 in the first four weeks before the bye week in Week #5. That bye comes after a trip to London as the Raiders are surrendering a home game this season to make things even more challenging. Including the trip across the pond the Raiders will travel over 20,000 miles for nine away games, by far the most travel miles in the league. If the Raiders do manage a respectable start to the season they will face a gauntlet starting in November facing seven teams that were a combined 76-36 last season. The only primetime game of the season for the Raiders is a short week Thursday night game that follows up a huge division road game at San Diego as well. Expect the Raiders to be a competent team in 2014 but it might not show up in the standings.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .563 (4/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 7 (four home, three away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 12,189
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 4 (1 Thursday, 1 Saturday, 1 Sunday night, 1 Monday night)
With wins in the final four games of the regular season last year the Chargers snuck into the playoffs and San Diego upset Cincinnati in the wild card round before falling narrowly against the Broncos. That late run and the resurgent season from Philip Rivers made it a very successful first season for head coach Mike McCoy. Expectations will be elevated moving forward however and the Chargers will have a tough 2014 schedule along with the rest of the division. San Diego is a team that could create an early buzz in 2014 however as they have a favorable early season schedule.
They only play one 2013 playoff team in the first six weeks and while they do have to play the Seahawks, that game is at home and they catch Seattle off what will be a hyped opener with the Packers knowing that the Seahawks have a Super Bowl rematch in Week #3 as well. The Chargers also catch Denver in what could be a favorable Thursday night spot in Week #8, with the Broncos coming off a primetime game with a physical 49ers team the previous week and with the Broncos staring at the Patriots in the following game. As usual this could be a Chargers team capable of beating some of the elite teams in the NFL but also capable of losing to anyone. Houston, Oakland, and Washington combined to win nine games last season but three of those wins came against the Chargers.
San Diego has a late bye week in Week #10 but they will pay the price for the favorable early schedule with a brutally tough final five weeks. The Chargers play at Baltimore to close November before a December schedule that features teams that went 48-16 last season. The final two games of the season for San Diego are at San Francisco and then at Kansas City, with home games with New England and Denver before that. A 4-0 close to the season seems pretty unlikely for the Chargers in 2014 so San Diego will need a strong start to stay in contention late. San Diego has three east coast games and significant overall travel as well and they have a few awkward primetime games with a Monday night game to open the season plus a late season Saturday game. Look for the Chargers to start the season looking like a serious contender but this is a team that could limp into the postseason if they find a way to get there.
_______________________________________________________________
2014 NFC East Preview
The National Football League draft gets all the attention in the spring but the recent release of the 2014 schedule can be a more telling factor in how a team will fare next season. Take a look at the four teams in the NFC East in this schedule preview. The East is one of the highest profile divisions in the league but it has not been a strong division top to bottom for several years. Each of the four teams has a division title in the last five seasons but no team has repeated as division champion since 2004.
DALLAS COWBOYS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .488 (18/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 6 (four home, two away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games (includes London): 13,642
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 6 (1 Thursday night, 1 Thanksgiving, 3 Sunday night, 1 Monday night)
Despite consistent mediocrity in recent seasons expectations and interest are always sky high for the Cowboys. This off-season the team did not appear to make major upgrades, in fact losing one of its biggest stars as DeMarcus Ware signed with Denver. The Cowboys also avoided the high profile drafting of Johnny Manziel but there have been some positive additions in free agency led by Henry Melton. If Dallas is to breakthrough to the playoffs in 2014 they will need a strong start as the schedule opens with great difficulty. Dallas opens the season at home against San Francisco before heading on back-to-back road games to Nashville and St. Louis, facing two teams that could provide tough tests this season as improved squads.
The next two home games come against New Orleans and Houston before the Cowboys head to Seattle. Getting through that run at 3-3 would be a positive step for Dallas before the middle of the season that features several divisional matchups. Overexposed is a word that often comes to mind with Dallas and the Cowboys will play six national TV confrontations including four consecutive TV games in the late season schedule. Dallas faces six 2013 playoff teams but four of those games will be at home for a somewhat favorable draw.
The East faces an AFC South division that could be the weakest in the AFC but Dallas and the rest of the East will play the stacked NFC West, featuring both of last season’s NFC Championship representatives. The second place draw for the Cowboys brings in challenging games with the Saints and Bears as well to make up a difficult overall slate. Dallas plays Jacksonville in London in November as the Cowboys will only play seven true road games for an advantage but the lengthy travel late in the season could be taxing. Getting the bye week before big division games with the Giants and Eagles could be beneficial however. The first six weeks could make or break the Dallas season and as usual the Cowboys should be interesting and competitive enough to stay relevant, though contending for a championship seems like a stretch.
NEW YORK GIANTS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .465 (26/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 5 (three home, two away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 8,193
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 5 (1 Thursday, 2 Sunday night, 2 Monday night)
After going just 9-7 with a point differential of +88 in 2012 the Giants looked like a team poised to deliver a stronger season in 2013. New York wound up 7-9 last season with disastrous numbers on defense and big issues with turnovers on offense. New York started the season 0-6 and rallied to win seven of the final 10 games of the season including putting together a competitive season within the division. The Giants draw a 3rd place schedule in 2014 which means drawing the Lions and Falcons, potentially a dangerous grouping with both of those teams also being big disappointments in 2013 and potentially poised to rebound.
One thing to note on the schedule that plays in favor of the Giants is that New York will play a team with a new coaching staff in three of the first four weeks of the season, seemingly a big advantage compared with the rest of the division given the relative stability of the Giants organization in recent years. New York only plays one 2013 playoff team in the first eight weeks of the season so New York is almost certain to get off to a much better start this year.
The season for New York will face its biggest challenge in November playing the Colts, Seahawks, and 49ers in consecutive games although that daunting stretch is preceded by a bye week and two of the three games as well as a game with the Cowboys in Week #12 will be at home. New York will only play two games on the road against teams that had a winning record in 2013 and only the finale at home against the Eagles among the final six games comes against a winning team from last season. All in all New York has what looks like the best schedule in the NFC East, facing the 7th weakest schedule in the league in terms of 2013 win percentage and facing the fewest travel miles in the division. It is worth noting that New York seemingly had a favorable schedule entering the 2013 season as well with a favorable second place draw but that obviously played out poorly.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .479 (20/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 5 (two home, three away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 10,247
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 6 (1 Thursday, 1 Saturday, 2 Sunday night, 2 Monday night)
The Eagles wound up winning the NFC East last season in a great bounce back year led by Chip Kelly making a successful jump to the NFL. Philadelphia found a quarterback with efficient play from Nick Foles and the unique wrinkles in the offense proved difficult for many opponents. Philadelphia benefitted from facing three awful defensive teams in the division last season though two losses came in the division. The Eagles were the second highest scoring team in the NFC last season behind only Chicago but the Eagles were only +60 in point differential as the defense had several problematic games in an inconsistent season.
In 2014 the Eagles draw a first place schedule which means pulling Carolina and a facing a trip to Green Bay with those games coming in consecutive weeks in November. The Eagles have a very tough road schedule overall with only one road game outside of the division coming against a losing team from 2013 and that game is at Houston, a team many expect to be very competitive moving forward. The Eagles do get to avoid traveling to Seattle this season but they play at San Francisco and also have likely the tougher of the road game possibilities in the AFC South draw playing at Indianapolis and at Houston.
After a an early Week #7 bye week the Eagles play three of the next four games on the road in what could be the most important stretch of the season outside of the division games. Philadelphia has four of its six division games in the final five weeks of the season as the success or failure of the season will likely be decided in December. It will be interesting to see if opponents are better prepared for the Eagles in 2014 with a season of film on the offense but despite some challenges in the schedule the Eagles only play five games against 2013 playoff teams and this looks like a division that will not require an amazing record to win.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .490 (17/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 5 (two home, three away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 9,956
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 3 (1 Thursday, 1 Saturday, 2 Monday night)
After the great breakthrough season in 2012 led by then-rookie Robert Griffin III the Redskins crashed last season falling to just 3-13 for the worst record in the NFC. The #2 draft pick slot for Washington went to the Rams so there was no reward for the awful season in which the team was outscored by 144 points. Washington went 0-6 in the division and 1-11 versus the NFC last season and while the opportunity to improve will be there, a worst-to-first scenario similar to what has played out in this division the last two seasons seems unlikely. Washington made a coaching change with Jay Gruden taking over and the early season schedule should be manageable for a team in transition.
Washington opens at Houston, the only team with a worse record in 2013 and another team in transition and then Washington will host Jacksonville in Week #2 so a promising start is possible. Washington will only play two 2013 playoff teams in the first 11 weeks of the schedule so it would not be a shock if Washington topped last season’s win total by that point before a challenging closing slate. Washington’s final three road games include trips to San Francisco and Indianapolis in back-to-back weeks and the final two home games will be big division tests against Philadelphia and Dallas.
The fourth place draw provides games with Tampa Bay and Minnesota, two teams that are also going through a coaching transition and those games will surround a Week #10 bye week. With a fairly average schedule Washington seems likely to improve on the ugly numbers from 2013 and the first few weeks should be very telling on whether or not Washington can return to being a playoff contender or whether the transition could take some time. Given the tough games later in the season, starting 2-0 might be critical for the Redskins and they have the opening draw to make it happen, facing teams with questionable quarterback situations in the first two weeks.
________________________________________________________
2014 NFC North Preview
The National Football League draft gets all the attention in the spring but the recent release of the 2014 schedule can be a more telling factor in how a team will fare next season. Take a look at the four teams in the NFC North in this schedule preview. The North was a disappointing division in 2013 with the Packers taking the title despite just an 8-7-1 record and only the 7-9 Lions featuring a positive point differential. This was after the division produced three 10-win teams in 2012. Green Bay is the favorite to win a fourth consecutive division title in 2014 but all four teams can make a case for improvement.
CHICAGO BEARS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .496 (15/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 6 (two home, four away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 6,306
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 6 (1 Thursday night, 1 Thanksgiving, 2 Sunday night, 2 Monday night)
The plan to bring in an offensive minded coach with former CFL coach Marc Trestman certainly worked as Chicago was the highest scoring team in NFC last season. A team with a reputation for playing great defense struggled to an 8-8 mark while allowing nearly 30 points per game however. While the Bears fell from 10-6 in 2012 to 8-8 they were in control of their playoff fate in the final week, losing to the Packers on a late touchdown. Along with the rest of the NFC North, Chicago faces the four AFC East teams and the four NFC South teams and Chicago will have to play Dallas and San Francisco in the 2nd place schedule draw.
Chicago has a tough road schedule in 2014 with games at San Francisco, at Carolina, and at New England and before a Week #9 bye week the Bears will play five road games. Chicago could find a stronger finish in 2014 as the Bears are at home in five of the final seven games of the season with only one of those final seven games coming against a 2013 playoff team. Both games with the Packers will complete by Week #10 for Chicago and the Bears catch Green Bay in potentially favorable situations as the Packers play in Chicago as the second of two back-to-back division games on the road and the bye week will precede Chicago's trip to Lambeau Field.
The Bears will be in the spotlight with six national TV games this season including two primetime games in the first three weeks of the season as well as three consecutive national TV games late in the year. The Bears have made some moves to address the league's worst run defense from 2013 and there could be more stability on the team if the key injuries from 2013 are avoided, though the case can be made that the Bears were a worse team last season with Jay Cutler at quarterback. After a hot 3-0 start last season faded the Bears might have a slower start in 2014 but a favorable late season slate could push the Bears into the postseason mix in what should be a tight division race yet again.
DETROIT LIONS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .492 (16/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 5 (two home, three away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games (includes London): 9,286
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 2 (1 Thanksgiving, 1 Monday night)
The Lions had all signs pointing to a big turnaround in 2013 and while Detroit did improve by three wins from a 4-12 2012 season, this was a team that sat at 6-3 with the division lead before collapsing with losses in six of the final seven games. The slide cost Jim Schwartz his job and after being passed over by some of the higher profile coaching candidates the Lions hired Jim Caldwell, the former Colts head coach and more recently the offensive coordinator on the 2012 Super Bowl champion Ravens.
The Lions have a great deal of talent on both sides of the ball but another transition season is ahead and Caldwell is the eighth Lions head coach since the team last won a division title in 1993. Detroit draws a third place schedule in 2014 which means games with the Giants and Cardinals, not exactly weak opponents and Detroit draws a daunting road schedule despite only having to play seven true road games with a London date in Week #8 versus Atlanta. The four non-division road games for the Lions come against teams that were 42-22 last season.
Detroit also has two challenging back-to-back road game sets in the second half of the season having to play at Arizona and then at New England the next week for taxing travel and then closing the season on the road in Chicago and then Green Bay in potentially treacherous weather for an indoor team. The first half schedule looks slightly more favorable for the Lions but for a team in a coaching transition getting off to a hot start may be difficult. As usual the Lions will likely have a handful of games where they look like a legitimate contender but getting consistent performances with this schedule in a transition season could be a great challenge. Another late season slide seems likely for the Lions with a tough path in November and December.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .504 (13/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 5 (three home, two away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 7,783
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 5 (2 Thursday, 2 Sunday night, 1 Monday night)
The Packers barely snuck into the playoffs despite facing one of the weaker schedules in the league last season. Aaron Rodgers did miss several games as the Packers bounced through three different back-up quarterbacks but ultimately Green Bay finished with a negative point differential despite the division title. Injuries were costly for Green Bay on both sides of the ball last season and better results could be on the way with improved health but there were glaring issues on the team defensively last season. Despite what ultimately was a pretty mediocre campaign in 2013 the Packers draw a first place schedule which means they are the only team to play Seattle, where they open the season. They also host Philadelphia in between division games in November.
Green Bay gets to play 2013 division winners New England and Carolina at home which could be a big advantage and overall the Packers have a fairly favorable schedule with only two road games against 2013 playoff teams. Four of the first six games of the season will be on the road and Green Bay has long trips to Seattle, Miami, New Orleans, Buffalo, and Tampa Bay this season. The Packers will play all three teams in the division in the first five weeks including the big road tests at Detroit and Chicago and even if the Packers don't win in Seattle they should be able to get off to a fairly strong start to the season in the first half slate.
Green Bay plays teams that finished a combined 21-43 last season in the final four weeks of the season so swooping in to steal the division title again is certainly a possibility for the Packers as the Lions and Bears both face tough closing slates. In a division with two new head coaches and a second-year head coach the Packers have by far the most stability of the group and while the schedule rates slightly more difficult than the rest of the division, overall the timing of games should play out favorably for Green Bay.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .477 (21/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 5 (three home, two away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 7,684
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 1 (1 Thursday)
The rise to 10-6 in 2012 certainly felt like a fluke for the Vikings and not surprisingly Minnesota fell backwards last season, finishing 4-12 while allowing 480 points, the most in the league. The Vikings started 1-7 last season before competing relatively well down the stretch, going 2-0-1 in the final three division games and beating NFC East champion Philadelphia and playing close games with Dallas and Baltimore. Minnesota appears set to go with veteran Matt Cassel at quarterback although the Vikings traded up to get Teddy Bridgewater late in the first round of the 2014 NFL draft.
Minnesota's rough 2013 season led to a coaching change and defensive-minded Mike Zimmer takes over after great success in transforming the Cincinnati defense in recent years. The Vikings still have a great running game and a solid run defense returning from last season but in a division with three high-profile quarterbacks it has been tough for Minnesota to keep up. The Vikings had a very difficult schedule last season and there are challenges ahead in 2014, mainly getting used to playing outside as the Vikings will play at TCF Bank Stadium for two seasons on the campus of the University of Minnesota while a new stadium is built in downtown Minneapolis.
Four of the final six games of the season will be at home for Minnesota and there certainly could be some challenging cold weather games and the fan support could be diminished moving from the loud Metrodome into a smaller college stadium. The 4th place draw of St. Louis and Washington does not feature a typical pair of last place squads but the Vikings do at least avoid the NFC West powers and Minnesota only plays one road game outside of the division against a 2013 playoff team, though it is a challenging game at New Orleans.
The Vikings play the Patriots, Saints, and Packers in the first five weeks, a very tough early draw for a team in transition with quarterback questions. If Minnesota can avoid a disastrous start like they had last season the rest of the schedule is relatively favorable. Minnesota plays teams that were a combined 28-52 from Week #6 to #11 with a bye week mixed in as Minnesota would have a chance to stay in contention if they can steal a game or two in the tough first month. The final two road games are at Detroit and at Miami, not exactly overly threatening venues and the Vikings do not have to play any west coast games. The Vikings are probably a year away from seriously contending for the postseason but this is likely to be an improved team compared with 2013 based on the schedule alone.
______________________________________________________________
2014 NFC South Preview
The National Football League draft gets all the attention in the spring but the recent release of the 2014 schedule can be a more telling factor in how a team will fare next season. Take a look at the four teams in the NFC South in this schedule preview. The South featured two playoff teams in 2014 with a big rise for the Panthers and a big fall for Atlanta. This should be a competitive division again as in the 12-year history of the division there has never been a repeat champion with all four teams taking three titles each.
ATLANTA FALCONS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .512 (11/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 6 (two home, four away)
•Miles Traveled for 9 road/neutral games (includes London): 9,452
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 3
•Primetime Games: 2 (1 Thursday Night, 1 Monday Night)
The Falcons went 13-3 in the 2012, falling just short of the Super Bowl in a tough NFC championship loss to the 49ers. With a much tougher schedule and some key injuries the Falcons took a big fall in the standings last year, going just 4-12 in 2013 and winding up as one of the most disappointing teams in the National Football League. Atlanta was the worst rushing offense in the NFL last season and one of the worst defensive teams, particularly against the run. Seven losses for the Falcons came by seven or fewer points last season, including each of the first four losses of the season so Atlanta was not far from being a much more competitive team in 2013.
The Falcons did not win a game by more than eight points however, getting an overtime triumph and a one-point win among the season's four victories. Heading into 2014 Atlanta has been limited in free agency with several highly paid veterans on the roster and Atlanta draws a 3rd place schedule as they 'won' the tiebreaker with Tampa Bay who also finished 4-12 last season. With the entire South playing the NFC North the difference is playing the Giants and Cardinals instead of the Redskins and Rams. The NFC South plays the solid AFC North teams meaning four fairly tough games and the Falcons have the Bengals and Ravens on the road, likely the more difficult of the draws.
Atlanta will also play at Green Bay late in the season and the Falcons only have seven home games in 2014, surrendering a home date to play the Lions in London. In addition to the long travel overseas Atlanta will play three sets of back-to-back away games on the year with substantial travel overall this season. Getting off to a good start will be critical for the Falcons but with the Saints and Bengals in the first two weeks that could be a challenge and the Falcons also have a daunting closing schedule playing Arizona, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, and Carolina in the final five weeks. It will be tough for Atlanta to be as bad as it was in 2013 but a huge improvement also seems unlikely with this slate.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .473 (22/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 6 (two home, four away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 5,159
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 3 (1 Thursday Night, 1 Sunday Night, 1 Monday Night)
2013 was the breakthrough season for the Carolina Panthers with head coach Ron Rivera and quarterback Cam Newton delivering a division title after some serious struggles the previous two seasons. The Panthers were 7-1 at home last season and 5-1 in the division but they lost at home in the playoffs against San Francisco. The first place schedule does mean that the Panthers have to play the Seahawks but that game will be in Charlotte this season. That matchup will come in a grueling mid-season run of tough games as Carolina has a very challenging early season schedule.
The Panthers will play nine consecutive games against teams that won at last seven games last season starting in Week #2, and the toughest stretch features back-to-back road games at Cincinnati and at Green Bay followed by home games with Seattle and New Orleans and then a Monday night game in Philadelphia. It would not be a surprise if the Panthers had as many losses as all of last season by mid-season as most of the big games come in the early part of the schedule. That does mean that five of the final six games of the season will come against teams that had a losing record last season.
Carolina has the latest possible bye week coming in Week #12 which could add to the toll of the early season schedule and the Panthers were a team that won five games by four or fewer points last season, something that will be difficult to replicate. That included narrow wins over the 49ers, Patriots, and Saints late in the season and Carolina will need more big wins against marquee opposition to contend for the playoffs again in 2014. Four of Carolina's six games against 2013 playoff teams will be on the road but Carolina does not have long travel miles ahead with no west coast games on the schedule. The Panthers should be a competitive team but a few bounces may fall the other way this season and the tough early slate might send the Panthers back to being closer to a .500 team.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .469 (23/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 5 (four home, one away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 6,571
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 1
•Primetime Games: 5 (1 Thursday Night, 2 Sunday Night, 2 Monday Night)
In what felt like a transition season with the Saints getting head coach Sean Payton back on the sidelines and with Rob Ryan taking over the defense, the Saints managed to go 11-5 and earn a wild card spot. Despite a challenging travel situation New Orleans won in Philadelphia on the road in the playoffs before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champions in Seattle. New Orleans was the only team in the NFC to go 8-0 at home last season and getting back to the top of the division and earning home field advantage will be a priority if the Saints have another Super Bowl run left in the Drew Brees era.
In terms of 2013 win percentage New Orleans will face the weakest schedule of the four teams in the NFC South and the Saints will only play one road game against a 2013 palyoff team, playing division rival Carolina in Charlotte in a mid-season Thursday night game. That game comes in a tough situation following up a Sunday night tilt with the Packers but the home date in the series with Panthers will be a favorable situation for the Saints as it will be the second of back-to-back road games for Carolina. New Orleans will not play a team that had a winning record in 2013 until Week #8 as the Saints should be in position to get off to a great start and emerge as one of the teams to beat in 2014.
New Orleans does open with three of the first four games on the road but they get to catch Cleveland and Minnesota in the first three weeks, teams with coaching transitions that could feature some growing pains early in the season. Four of the first six games of the season for the Saints will come against a new coaching staff, a huge advantage over the rest of the division that will play most of those teams later in the schedule. The Saints have an early Week #6 bye week which may not be ideal for an older team but New Orleans also only plays one 2013 playoff team in the final six weeks of the season.
The meat of the schedule starts in late October with consecutive games against Green Bay, Carolina, San Francisco, Cincinnati, and Baltimore, although only the division game against the Panthers in that run will be on the road. With its toughest games at home and one of the best home field edges in the league this slate lines up well for the Saints to return to prominence in the NFC. New Orleans also only plays back-to-back road games once and that run comes in the first two weeks of the season when the team might be in a better position to handle it. Overall the Saints have one of the better looking schedules among all of the expected NFC contenders.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .484 (19/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 6 (four home, two away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 7,110
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 3 (including a back-to-back-to-back)
•Primetime Games: 1 (1 Thursday Night)
Given that Lovie Smith is a veteran coach that featured a strong track record despite his firing two seasons ago, many expect Tampa Bay to be the team with a new coaching staff that could deliver success right away. The Buccaneers have a talented receiving corps and made some big moves in free agency but there are still questions on what was a terrible defensive team against the pass last year and with the quarterback situation led by Mike Glennon and the least productive passing offense in the NFL from 2013.
There were many distractions last season in a 0-8 start to the season for the Buccaneers but several of the losses came in tight defeats against high quality teams. The Buccaneers only won once on the road last season but most of the toughest games out of the division in 2014 will come at home. Tampa Bay will have to play three straight road games from Week #3 to #5 for a daunting travel run early in the season and the closing slate is tough as well with the Panthers, Packers, and Saints in the final three weeks. Tampa Bay also plays four road games in five weeks late in the season including some potential cold weather games in November.
The Buccaneers will know where they stand early with a division game against each team in the first five weeks with two of those games coming on the road. If Tampa Bay can survive a fairly tough six-game run to start the season before a Week #7 bye they could emerge as a serious playoff contender. After the bye week the Buccaneers play four straight games against teams that combined to go 16-47-1 last season before a fairly daunting closing schedule. Tampa Bay will be considered a sleeper for the playoffs with this schedule and at the very least improvement by multiple wins over last season seems very possible in 2014.
_____________________________________________________________
2014 NFC West Preview
The National Football League draft gets all the attention in the spring but the recent release of the 2014 schedule can be a more telling factor in how a team will fare next season. Take a look at the four teams in the NFC West in this schedule preview. The West was the toughest division in the NFL last season with the four teams going 42-22 combined and the division producing both NFC finalists. The schedules will be challenging across the board in 2014 for the West and it seems inevitable that at least one of the teams in this division will fall from last season’s pace.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .547 (8/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 8 (five home, three away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 10,852
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 1
•Primetime Games: 3 (1 Thursday Night, 1 Sunday Night, 1 Monday Night
The Cardinals went from 5-11 to 10-6 and just missing the playoffs last season led by Bruce Arians in his first season in Glendale and the acquisition of veteran quarterback Carson Palmer. Arizona was +55 in point differential last season with five wins by seven or fewer points but the defense was fierce, led by one of the best run stopping units in the NFL. The Cardinals went just 2-4 in division games and improving that mark will be the key for the Cardinals moving up in this stacked division. Arizona will be the rare 10-win team getting a 3rd place schedule which means drawing Atlanta and Detroit as the West will play all four NFC East teams. The division also draws a very tough AFC West with three of those four opponents being 2013 playoff teams as overall the division will feature challenging schedules.
Arizona has to play eight games against 2013 playoff teams and like every team in this division, the Cardinals will face over 10,000 travel miles while facing a top eight schedule in terms of 2013 win percentage. By a small margin Arizona has the weakest schedule in the NFC West in terms of 2013 win percentage and Arizona will get five of the eight games against 2013 playoff teams at home. Arizona will need to carry over its late season momentum from last year into the start of the season as the schedule is a bit front-loaded and back-loaded for the Cardinals with what appear to be the best opportunities in the middle of the season. Home games with San Diego and San Francisco early in the season will be critical and the Cardinals will only face one winning team from 2013 in the first four road games, though that game is against the AFC champion Broncos.
Arizona also has home games with Washington, St. Louis, and Detroit in the middle of the season before a tough final month slate. The Cardinals play division foes in each of the final three weeks with two of those three games on the road. Arizona plays both games with Seattle in the final six weeks of the season while also playing four of the final six overall on the road with some substantial travel. With an early Week #4 bye week the late season the tough schedule and taxing travel could take a toll on the Cardinals. Arizona is not likely to fall off the map in 2014 but a small step back seems possible unless they can turn things around in the division games.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .563 (4/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 7 (four home, three away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 11,969
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 3
•Primetime Games: 5 (1 Thursday Night, 1 Saturday Night, 2 Sunday Night, 1 Monday Night)
With three consecutive NFC championship appearances the 49ers have certainly established themselves as one of the top teams in the National Football League and a team that is a Super Bowl threat every season. San Francisco struggled to run the ball effectively last season but despite an ugly 1-2 start to the season the 49ers rallied to win 11 of the last 13 games of the regular season and took Seattle down to the wire in the NFC championship after beating Green Bay and Carolina in the playoffs. Last season San Francisco had to face a 1st place schedule and this season the 49ers get a 2nd place draw which means avoiding Green Bay but having to play New Orleans.
San Francisco has tough road games at Dallas, at Denver, and at New Orleans outside of the already tough division road games but the 49ers will play the fewest 2013 playoff teams in the division with just seven of those games, including only three on the road. The 49ers face substantial travel this season and will play three separate sets of back-to-back road games while also getting three short week games with the primetime schedule. San Francisco will play Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday night games on the season. Unlike the rest of the division the 49ers draw a more favorable Week #8 bye week that should provide a more centrally placed break.
The biggest current rivalry in the league will be saved for late in the season as the games with Seattle are in Weeks #13 and #15 and the game in Seattle comes in a second straight road game, though the previous road game is just in Oakland. San Francisco will have an adjustment this season with the new stadium in Santa Clara and the early season home games are challenging with Chicago, Philadelphia, and Kansas City coming into town in the first five weeks. San Francisco looks like an elite team again but this is a very tough schedule and there is little margin for error in this division with four legitimate playoff contenders.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .561 (6/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 8 (five home, three away)
•Miles Traveled for 8 road/neutral games: 16,028
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 2
•Primetime Games: 4 (2 Thursday Night, 1 Sunday Night, 1 Monday Night)
The Super Bowl champions were mostly dominant last season finishing with a 13-3 record and a point differential of +186. Seattle has featured one of the best defenses in the NFL and the offense was very impressive at times last season though not with the same consistency as the defense. Seattle benefitted from a weaker schedule last season with a 2nd place draw and the Seahawks were able to coast late in the season after an 11-1 start, eventually dropping two games late in the season but still earning the top seed in the NFC. Seattle won twice in overtime last season and had three other wins by seven or fewer points and trading the AFC South for the AFC West will upgrade the challenge in 2014.
Seattle also draws Carolina and Green Bay in the 1st place draw and Seattle will play eight games in 2014 against 2013 playoff teams. Seattle has incredibly long travel this season going over 16,000 miles for eight road games, more miles than most of the teams heading to London this season will face. Three east coast games are ahead for the Seahawks plus two Central Time games and Seattle has two sets of back-to-back road games with the second of the two games out east in both cases. The Seahawks will need to avoid a Super Bowl hangover in September with a brutal opening trio of games with Green Bay, San Diego, and Denver in the first three weeks before an early Week #4 bye week. The schedule softens a bit in October and early November but starting in mid-November the Seahawks will play six straight games against teams that won at least 10 games in 2013 including both games with San Francisco and road games in Kansas City, Philadelphia, and Arizona.
Seattle will close with division games in the final three weeks and this season the division race may still be up in the air in December with all four teams looking viable. Seattle did not actually have the best record in the division last season going 4-2 while the 49ers went 5-1 so there is no margin for error and with the taxing travel schedule it would not be a surprise if the Seahawks slipped a game or two from last season despite still looking like a serious threat to repeat. Seattle has won six of the last 10 NFC West titles and if they win the division again in 2014 it will not likely be in convincing fashion.
ST LOUIS RAMS
•2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: .564 (3/32)
•Games vs. 2013 Playoff Teams: 8 (three home, five away)
•Miles Traveled for 78road/neutral games: 10,575
•Back-to-Back road game sets: 1 back-to-back-to-back
•Primetime Games: 2 (1 Thursday Night, 1 Monday Night)
This is a talented Rams team that has been building nicely in two seasons under Jeff Fisher and if St. Louis played in any other division they might be considered one of the favorites. As it stands St. Louis will have to try to move up in a division where they went 1-5 last season, while going 6-4 against the rest of the league. St. Louis was also just 2-6 on the road last season and the Rams were only -16 in point differential in a 7-9 campaign where they played with a back-up quarterback much of the way. While St. Louis was very competitive last season they did not lose a lot of close games with only one defeat by fewer than seven points as this was an inconsistent team.
The Rams also did not win close games with only one win decided by fewer than 10 points and an average margin of victory of more than 16 points in the seven wins. St. Louis should be a candidate to start the season strong with two games against teams that had losing records and with new coaching staffs this season in the first two weeks. A 2-0 start is paramount for the Rams this season if they hope to contend for a playoff spot. The Rams then host Dallas in Week #3 before an early Week #4 bye week. St. Louis will then embark on an absolutely brutal stretch of games in October and early November playing seven of eight games against 2013 playoff teams with the lone exception in that run being a game at Arizona who went 10-6 last season. That game comes in a third straight road game for the Rams as well.
While the final game of the season for St. Louis is at Seattle there are winnable games in Weeks #13 and #16 with three of those four games coming at home but surviving the mid-season gauntlet will be a great challenge. St. Louis is talented enough to steal some of those games with upsets but for a team that was incredibly inconsistent last season it is not clear if the Rams are ready to take a step forward this season and the schedule is not doing the team any favors. Five of the eight road games for St. Louis are against 2013 playoff teams and despite being one of the most centrally located franchises in the league the Rams have over 10,000 travel miles ahead. A lot of folks are buyers on the Rams this season for good reason but they will need to start strong and find a way to stay positive and fresh through a very tough slate to have a chance at the playoffs or a first division title since 2003.
_______________________________________________________________
