Stardust Invite Finals - Steve Fezzik vs. David Stratton

[winkyduck]

after getting chewed out last week for not posting this in this forum - i learned my lesson. i have posted the prices listed @ olympic on each guy:

BOTH took: Jags -1.5 (Saints)

there is another similar play - but since 1 is a BB - that play carries more weight.

Steve Fezzik
************
49ers/Eagels O40.5
Kansass +11.5 (NC State)
Brownies +3 (Ravens)
Raiders +5.5 (Packers)
Bills -1.5 (Dolphins)
BEST BET: Jets +3 (Patriots)

**************
David Stratton
**************
Bucs -7.5 (Falcons)
Rams -7 (Bungals)
Lions +9.5 (Panthers)
Dallass Cowgirls -11 (Giants)
Seahawks -14 (Cards)
BEST BET: 49ers/Eagles O40.5


ok - so who wins this one!

 

[Railbird]

I like Startton, but hate is Rams pick. +120 on a coin toss is a good play. Fezzik counting on some bad qbs, also suprised Fezzik didnt take Bengals.

 

[MangoMan+]

Cincinnati is a risky pick. Peter Warick will not play in the game due to a knee injury. He is one of the better #2 WR's in the league and one of the most prolific punt returners. This game is a total guess and if you follow the NFL often you know that one play or officials call will decide it.

 

[winkyduck]

much to david matthews delight - fezzik wins the vote 5-4 - and i'm sure 1 of his votes was from matthews!

 

[tatehill2000]

so far so good Stratton Lost his First!!

Go FEZZIK!!

tater

 

[DavidMatthews]

Slight edge to Fez... Jets tonight!

 

[wilheim]

Jets plus 3 - oopps.


wil.

 

[winkyduck]

saturday - BOTH go 0-1 but edge to stratton since fezzik's loss was a BB loss (and one just about everyone here told him he would lose - and if he chimes in here saying the jets' 2-pt conversion woulda pushed the game for him - he is right - but if moss doesn't let that pass get picked off last week - fezzik never makes it this far).

 

[wilheim]

First time since 1983 a Jet QB has been picked off 5 times (Richard Todd).


wil.

 

[Fezzik]

It didn't bother me that "all" were against me on my Jets pick.

When all the recreational gamblers disagree with me I yawn...... when those making 6 figures disagree with me, then, well then I typically don't bet that game!

Suffice it to say that there was HUGE consensus from those I know that make the most at this, that the Jets were the "right" side based on what we knew at kickoff.

5 Interceptions for the Jets. That's funny. That's really funny.

 

[Fezzik]

It didn't bother me that "all" were against me on my Jets pick.

When all the recreational gamblers disagree with me I yawn...... when those making 6 figures disagree with me, then, well then I typically don't bet that game!

Suffice it to say that there was HUGE consensus from those I know that make the most at this, that the Jets were the "right" side based on what we knew at kickoff.

5 Interceptions for the Jets. That's funny. That's really funny.

 

[PeteRoseJR]

I agree with Fezzik, the only problem was pennington. It would been better to have Eric Lindros at QB. They only lost by 5 outright, 2.0 away from covering. 5 interceptions is not acceptable from an NFL QB.

Brad

Good Luck Fezzik

 

[WildBill]

While the public might have been on the wrong value side, still hard to bet against a team that has been rolling in a big way shutting everyone down and still only giving up a FG. Five INTs is high, but this was a team that matched up extremely well against Pennington and I was very surprised they got 16 points as it is.

 

[TTinCO]

FEZ, wtf do you like about Kansas?????

I can't picture them staying within 21.

 

[bulldog77]

The great Patriot defense that got the ints was a secret?

 

[Fezzik]

It's never a good situation to be in when one has to try to defend a losing pick after it has lost.

Having said that, I assure you that had you told me NE would win the T.O. battle by 2 or more, I most certainly would have avoided the Jets like the plague.

I do get a kick out of these threads. A team covers by 2, and I hear "WHAT WERE YOU THINKING FEZ?, and IT WAS OBVIOUS NE WOULD DOMINATE".

The home team typically GETS these type of breaks. See last weeks' OAK/Balt, ZONA/Caro, CHIC/Min, SD/PAcker games. 4 shitty teams at home vs. 4 playoff contenders.

Some good breaks, some bad breaks, but amazing how many people after the fact told me "It was obvious the Packers would get all those TOs vs. the Chargers. They are so superior, THEY MAKE THEIR OWN LUCK".

Yeah. Tell that to the Ravens, Panthers, and Randy Moss.

Seriously, if there is one key concept in the NFL, it is this.....ROAD CHALK Players who back far superior teams get destroyed in the NFL betting.

Go to any offshore. Query the top winning bettors over the last 10 years in the NFL. I challenge anyone to find more than a very, very select few who have won on their aggregate road chalk plays. And most certainly not playing road favorites public playoff teams laying 3 or more.

But everyone wants to live the dream. They will keep saying "you cannot pidgeon hole yourself. You need to analyze every game. Many road favorites in the NFL have GREAT value".

Sure..........and it's certainly possible to win laying -120 on other bets. But the competency required to win laying 6 to make 5 is on par with the competency required to identify the few select road chalks that do offer value in the NFL.

............CAVEAT. NFL has tons of square money. All those laying the wood in other sports on the road can disregard the above.

 

[Fezzik]

QUick note on KU.

Teams off back to back losses are horrific ATS in bowl games as favorites (hung over from losing their better Bowl Game)

Teams w/ 5 or more losses laying over a TD are also horrific ATS in bowl games (Don't ask a subpar team to get a blowout win for you vs. a motivated foe likely to circle the wagons).

 

[PeeWee]

bulldog77 wrote "The great Patriot defense that got the ints was a secret?"

Prior to this game, the NY Jets were 6th Best in the NFL in Percentage of Offensive (i.e., their own) Passes Intercepted.
Prior to this game, New England was 8th Best in the NFL in Percentage of Defensive (i.e., other teams) Passes Intercepted.

New England was the 4th Best Run Defense, but 17th in Defense vs. Opponent's Passing Yards/Game.

I don't feel it was obvious that Interceptions would win the game in this matchup.

 

[bulldog77]

I didn't mean to imply that I thought they would get 5 ints last night. Only that they have an excellent experienced defense that has done it week in week out since 2nd game of season. What do they need to do to get some respect? Frankly, I'm glad respect has been slow in coming as it has preserved value in continuing to bet on them.
This is my last post in this thread as I do feel uncomfortable talking about a game post facto that I only mildly backed anyway. Had I bet on Stardust Finals I certainly would have bet Fezzik for what its worth. He may still overcome a bad start.

 

[GreenDoberman]

So, by that logic, you would say Cleveland +3 and Oakland +5 are good bets for today and tomorrow, right Steve?
I hope so, I like both those sides straight up.