Stanley Cup Hangover

[VegasVic]

While most of everyone is watching July baseball, working on their NFL power rankings, or figuring out how many starters Arizona State is returning I’m focusing on how to make money on ice hockey. To say I march to a different drummer would be a considerable understatement. But I love my hockey and I'm counting down the days till Prague/Stockholm, (68 for those that care).

The first angle I'm looking at is nothing new but worthy of exploring again since the Detroit Red Wings will undoubtedly be heavily priced in many, if not all, of their opening games come October. There is no debate that they are the most formidable team in all of hockey. Just a quick perusal of last year’s stats will bear out. For instance…..

Including the playoffs, the Wings won 70 of 104 games in 2007-08. Detroit played a 11 game stretch in February missing Nik Lidstrom, Brian Rafalski, and Chris Chelios for most of that time. They lost 10 of those games. In other words with these three defensemen in the lineup the Wings had a .741 winning percentage, (69-24). For the regular season they ranked third in the league in goal production and first in fewest goals allowed. Omitting that 11 game stretch in February they owned a 237/151, (GF/GA), ratio. They covered 35 games on the goal line out of 53 victories.

Certainly listing impressive numbers as these for last year’s champions is a simple thing to do. We all know how good this team was but what can be expected of the Wings for 2008-09? You’d believe much of the same except for one thing. The Stanley Cup Hangover. It is very real and after playing deep into June it’s understandable if a team comes into the next season with a bit of complacency.

Consider this….

After winning the cup in 06-07, Anaheim lost 11 of their opening 17 games last year and lost in the first round of the playoffs to Dallas 4 games to 1.

Carolina lost 18 of their first 33 in 06-07 after winning the cup in 05-06. They failed to make the playoffs entirely.

Even having an entire year off, (due to the lockout in 2004-05), couldn’t help the 2003-04 champion Tampa Bay Lightning from shaking off the Cup hangover. They went on to lose 12 of their opening 20 games in 2005-06. They barely made the playoffs finishing two points ahead of both Toronto and Atlanta. They were disposed of in the first round of the playoffs 4 games to 1.

The New Jersey Devils won only two games of their opening 8 in 2003-04 after winning the cup in 02-03. Come playoff time New Jersey made a early first round exit to Philadelphia 4 games to 1.

The Detroit Red Wings last won the cup in 2001-02. That year they won an astounding 51 games. Winning over 50 games in a year before the new rules, (including shootouts), was a rare occurrence. Despite the powerhouse they were in ‘01-02 they won only 6 of their opening 13 games, (6-5-2) in 2002-03 and were swept four games to none in the first playoff round to Anaheim.

This trend of sluggish starts and quit exits goes on and on and to think it couldn’t happen again in 2008-09 would be foolish. No matter how dominant Detroit looked last year, (and getting stronger with Marian Hossa’s signing), I’ll play contrarian and will be looking to back some heavy underdog prices in October. Needless to say playing the Wings to repeat at 6/1, (or less), would not be advisable.

 

[wannabewhale]

Wings open up with 8 of their first 12 on the road--including a 5 game West Coaster.
Tor/@ Ott/@Car/Van/NYR/@STL/Atl/@Chi/@LA/@Ana/@SJ/@Van

Def not an easy opening--could be on to something

 

[OTK]

Nice angle, and it's nice to see some guys already looking ahead to hockey. I see a big diffence between teh 08-09 Wings and most of the teams you listed with hangovers; none are nearly as talented as the Wings will be this year. TB, Carolina and the Ducks were all great runs by average teams for the most part. Only ANA was expected to do something the next year, and even they were expected to have trouble scoring. They also lost a few big players the next year, Detroit lost pretty much nobody. Not only that, they added an All Star.

They could easily start off slow, and will probably be a good fade for value purposes (will probably get -180+ on the road which is a smart fade), but just be sure to look at the differences when looking at trends. Detroit is a damn good hockey team and it will be hard to ever bet against them this season, but if you pick your spots well you can make a lot of money doing so.

Good info though, and looking forward to more angles/ideas and just some overall hockey discussion before the winter starts. :toast:

 

[VegasVic]

I see a big diffence between teh 08-09 Wings and most of the teams you listed with hangovers; none are nearly as talented as the Wings will be this year. TB, Carolina and the Ducks were all great runs by average teams for the most part. Only ANA was expected to do something the next year, and even they were expected to have trouble scoring. They also lost a few big players the next year, Detroit lost pretty much nobody. Not only that, they added an All Star.

I can’t argue that the Lightning or Canes were world beaters. And it’s true the Ducks certainly were weakened by missing two key components, (Selanne and Niedermayer). As well as having to open the season in the U.K.

But how do you explain the ‘03-04 Devils or the ‘02-03 Wings?

The 2002-03 Detroit Red Wings, that opened 5-6-2, had a squad resembling a all-star team and superior to this year’s edition. Especially if you take into account the parity that exists in today’s NHL compared to pre-lockout.

The 2002-03 Wings included Brendan Shanahan, Sergei Fedorov, Brett Hull, Nik Lidstrom, Henrik Zetterberg, Luc Robitialle, Steve Yzerman, Chris Chelios, Pavel Datsyuk, Kris Draper, Tomas Holmstrom, Kirk Maltby, Mathieu Dandeault, Igor Larionov, Jiri Fischer, Jason Williams, Sean Avery, Curtis Joseph, and Manny Legace.

Even with this core of players they could only muster 6 wins in their opening 13 and were swept in the first round by the Anaheim Mighty Ducks.

 

[Bushay]

I can’t argue that the Lightning or Canes were world beaters. And it’s true the Ducks certainly were weakened by missing two key components, (Selanne and Niedermayer). As well as having to open the season in the U.K.

But how do you explain the ‘03-04 Devils or the ‘02-03 Wings?


Let me check in here with some hometown flavor.

I think I can explain the Wings failure to a degree. This was the first year of the Dave Lewis era. A whole 2 year era and for good reason. He was not a good motivator. Very much unlike today's Mike Babcock. And the team was made up of an Yzerman that played 16 games that season. A Datsyuk in his 2nd season and a rookie in Zetterburg. Both played 3rd line minutes in those years. Datsyuk,Zetterburg and Holmstrom wernt even a though back then. Add to that a lazy 38 year old Brett Hull and a Shanahan that doesnt exactly lead by example skating wise. Shawn Avery was traded to the Kings halfway thru the season and didnt intimidate anyone back then. Schneider came over halfway thru. This just just simply not one of our better teams all around. Even Jiri Fischer only played 15 games that season. Now lets add in a 41 year old Larionov...a year Dmitry Bykov played 71 games and Maxim Kuznetsov even was a regular that year. This team also was without a Dom Hasek that won 41 games the previous season. That's huge right there alone. He was only 36 then.

Now I'm not trying to say that the Wings wont come out with a hangover....like you alread stated...most all do......but it's something that was addressed in the offseason and nailed by acquiring Hossa. The biggest negative after a Cup win is motivation. They addressed it by acquiring a world class player in Hossa who's sole reason for coming here is to win a cup. The 02-03 team didnt add anyone but Lewis!

Everybodys signed. Everybodys happy. Theres more quality competition for positions next season than I can EVER remember. They've got a kid in Grand Rapids...Johathan Ericsson who's an absolut STUD that once he cracks the lineup will be making a lot of noise on the HNIC hot stove roundtable between periods on Saturday evenings this fall. Mark my words. [I'm gonna say he's the best player in the league no one knows about yet.] And he already knows what it takes to win a Stanley Cup.

The biggest and most devastating negative just happened yesterday with Scotty Bowman bolting to Chicago. This is quietly going to hurt the team more than most think it might IMO. We just lost our backbone.

 

[Bushay]

Vic,

If you are concentrating on angles to capitalize on the Red Wings, one you might want to focus on is their back to back scheduling the schedule maker put them in. They have 16 back to back games this season. 14 of those are played against teams that will not have played the previous night. The two that have also played the night before are on November 29 vs. the Bruins. Detroit will be at home on the 28th and in Boston on the 29th. The other time will be the final game of the regular season, with the Blackhawks on April 12. Detroit and Chicago will play each other on the 11th as well.

 

[VegasVic]

Thanks for your contribution Bushay. I was hoping you’d add some hometown, (yet objective), reasoning in this.


All good points regarding the 02-03 Wings. I knew that Datsyuk and Zetterberg would be young but didn’t know it was their sophomore and rookie seasons respectively. Amazing in looking at the team stats and that these two guys finished 5th and 6th in total points while playing third line minutes.


Thanks for the heads up on Ericsson. I see where he was selected 291st overall in 2002. 6’ 5” 218lbs. 100 mph slap shot, AHL rookie of the year two years ago. Etc. etc. While you may have lost Scotty you still retain the best GM and scouting advice in all hockey.


…and speaking of Bowman. I’d like you to know that you were the first person I thought of when I heard about his move to Chicago. Condolences.

 

[VegasVic]

Great Caesar's Ghost! I just realized.

Ericsson was the LAST pick of the 2002 draft!

 

[nojuice9]

Vic, will you be posting your plays this coming season ?

 

[Bushay]

Great Caesar's Ghost! I just realized.

Ericsson was the LAST pick of the 2002 draft!

Yup!

And there's another one this year [last player selected] that they are comparing to Ericsson. His name escapes me at the moment. But he's another big gangly Swede like Ericsson. The Wings have this really good scout in Sweden that has found them all the others. A huge long shot...but their perdicting this kid is another diamond in the rough.

 

[Bushay]

Thanks for your contribution Bushay. I was hoping you’d add some hometown, (yet objective), reasoning in this.


All good points regarding the 02-03 Wings. I knew that Datsyuk and Zetterberg would be young but didn’t know it was their sophomore and rookie seasons respectively. Amazing in looking at the team stats and that these two guys finished 5th and 6th in total points while playing third line minutes.


Thanks for the heads up on Ericsson. I see where he was selected 291st overall in 2002. 6’ 5” 218lbs. 100 mph slap shot, AHL rookie of the year two years ago. Etc. etc.


The kid was a forward all his life without turning any heads and then someone in the organization suggested he try defence and he began to blossom like a big sunflower.

As much as I love this kid, imagine my frustration after watching the Wings sign Lilja to another contract this off season. I understand this kids need some more seasoning but... Lilja is the guy he's going to replace one day. And not a moment too soon

 

[VegasVic]

Vic, will you be posting your plays this coming season ?

I will do another HNIC selection thread again.

I'm also working on a team by team preview for the season which I should have up late August/early September.

 

[VegasVic]

As much as I love this kid, imagine my frustration after watching the Wings sign Lilja to another contract this off season. I understand this kids need some more seasoning but... Lilja is the guy he's going to replace one day. And not a moment too soon

I found my self cringing every time Lilja was around the puck, (or giving it up), in last year's playoffs. Numerous bonehead turnovers and very uncharacteristic, (for the Red Wings), careless puckhandling.

 

[Bushay]

I found my self cringing every time Lilja was around the puck, (or giving it up), in last year's playoffs. Numerous bonehead turnovers and very uncharacteristic, (for the Red Wings), careless puckhandling.

As terrible as he is 5 on 5. And he's not even allowed near the ice on the PP, he's actually not that bad a player on the penalty kill. It took me a while to realize this and someone else to point this out to me but it's actually true. And it makes sense really. He's big, 6-3 I believe. Doesn't move very well with or without the puck and is uncoordinated as all get out. But he actually blocks..[or gets in the way of] a lot of shots on the PK and plays pretty good position because he moves so slow.
I kind of relate it to a guy finding something SOMETHING nice about ANY girl he meets. Weather it be a fat broad with a nice personality, An ugly broad with a great ass or an obnoxious one with a great rack, Somewhere in that mess is something to love. Lilja's got a great looking PK.

 

[Robstradamus]

Consider this….

After winning the cup in 06-07, Anaheim lost 11 of their opening 17 games last year and lost in the first round of the playoffs to Dallas 4 games to 1.

Carolina lost 18 of their first 33 in 06-07 after winning the cup in 05-06. They failed to make the playoffs entirely.

these red wings, are not those canes or ducks or lightning. we won, because we were better. we weren't average teams who had a good eastern conf run and got to play lucky/trap playing western conf teams. those teams won because they mastered the new nhl first. now that it's level again the wings have risen and not gotten worse. they've actually gotten better.

The New Jersey Devils won only two games of their opening 8 in 2003-04 after winning the cup in 02-03. Come playoff time New Jersey made a early first round exit to Philadelphia 4 games to 1.

this is just "shit happening". brodeur's not nearly as clutch as some people believe. the guy sometimes just falls apart.

The Detroit Red Wings last won the cup in 2001-02. That year they won an astounding 51 games. Winning over 50 games in a year before the new rules, (including shootouts), was a rare occurrence. Despite the powerhouse they were in ‘01-02 they won only 6 of their opening 13 games, (6-5-2) in 2002-03 and were swept four games to none in the first playoff round to Anaheim.

the difference between 02 and 03 is only apparent to those who know the team well.

no scotty bowman will kill your motivation and work habits. he was replaced by a tame, do-nothing, hack of a coach.

losing dominik hasek, possibly the most clutch goaltender of all time and one of, if not the best quarterbacking goalie ever, kills you in the crease. he was replaced with a guy who could make 10 great saves and let in a stinker when it counted most. and would play himself out of position, and was too damn quiet and sulked after every goal. oh, and he had a habit of playing like an amateur in the first 10 min so teams were spotted easy goals early. this kills a defense when they can't be free to play pitch and catch, fast pass up the zone hockey.

they lost some other players and overall, had too many lazy leaders. lazy players like hull, shanahan, etc who weren't working hard with bowman gone. this, plus the trap they saw against the ducks, killed them.

and lest we forget who took those ducks past those wings. the best coach and best motivator in hockey-mike babcock.

you have to judge individually. this is why the house always wins. because people don't do their homework extensively and lump every team with every other team despite this wings team being extremely different and unique.

 

[Robstradamus]

bushay pretty much summed up what i was going to say.

i don't think this team will have a hangover. they're too good, and too competitive. the top line doesn't try hard because they're told to, they try hard because it's in their nature. like it's almost robotic. that's what gives me confidence. because not once did i see any of them dog it. not once. they're always out there, trying as hard as they can.

not to mention, two of them were selke candidates. factor in a constant drive to be great, with award winning defensive play, on a great team with a coach who won't let them screw up....and i feel very confident. not the least bit worried. minus maybe mccarty, and sometimes lilja, this team is skilled, fast, agile and smart, top to bottom.

hossa, as it's been said, came here with the sole intention of winning a cup. you all saw him in the finals this season, he played like a man possessed. and he came to detroit to do that again and tossed away tens of millions of dollars to do it.

also, take into account, the young players on this team aren't scrubs who had good playoff runs. they're the next run of stars. ie; filppula, who i don't even think most wings fans are aware of what he's going to become. i see datsyuk in him, all over again. what i saw in datsyuk in 2002, i saw in filppula last year and this year. and franzen, well, we all know what he did.

ericsson has me excited as well, and helm showed blazing speed and great decision making, which is why we took him. abdelkader looks like he could be a superstar and jimmy howard does as well. this is why detroit is winning and every other team who relied on free spending, like colorado, isn't. we've got the best damn management in hockey and the best guy behind the bench. call me a homer if you want, i know i'm saying this objectively-this is one of the best teams of all time. i felt silly thinking that before but i thought about it, and heard babcock and a couple other journalists mention it, and i think it's not far off. this team not only won, but took the best teams in the world and made them look silly. like they were men playing against children. they took a pittsburgh team who everyone thought was unstoppable, and made them look like ahl'ers.

there will be no hangover. at least nothing noteworthy.

 

[robertlanglois]

Detroit should have a strong start of season.

 

[catfood]

I think whats different with last years Detroit compared with other recent champions is that the 2007-8 Detroit have to be considered one of the greatest teams of all time...In February alone -when they had a rash of injuries- the month accounted for almost half of all their losses for the year...Its an amazing, totally dominating team thats playing a very good system under Babcock.