~St. Louis Rams Host The San Francisco 49ers~

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

After my loss to Pittsburgh this week I am betting this game with the same amount of money on my loss to Pittsburgh.I will never press[double-up] a bet after a loss I.am still way ahead in NFL season in green felt jungle. Both J,J, Bascus & Bee Bee after the lost picks this weekend and myself think this spread should be much higher and all agree that the 49ers are a very good play this week. San Francisco is just hitting its stride and have played Harbaugh-ball in its last two, both covers with both games staying under the total. St. Louis has one of the worst rushing defenses in the league allowing 152.5 rushing yards per game. This doesn't match up well against the 49ers who have the third ranked rushing offense in the NFL. San Francisco should set the tempo on the ground and cover the spread as a 3-point favorite. Harbaugh is 14-6 ATS in the Niners' last 20 road games and has them ready to roll for another nice run once after a couple sluggish games against Arizona and Chicago. The Rams can’t stop the run, and that’s what the 49ers want to do. Defensively the San Francisco 49ers feature the league's No. 14-rated road run defense, allowing 105.5 yards per game. The St. Louis Rams, meanwhile, ranks No. 26 in rushing offense at home. Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde should have a field day here. Power rating 49ers number #2 at 8.61 to the Rams at number #24 at 18.38 [lower the number the higher the value] Shop around at trying to lay -3, rather than -3.5, and it might even cost a few cents extra, but it’s well worth it. 49ers -3

Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT

 

[paulfmf]

HH-the 49ers are an elite team. SL on the other end of the bar. Why is the number so low? Just my eyeball test leads me to think the number should be 6 or more. How does the lines maker entice anybody to play SL at that number?

Your thoughts?

Thanks

 

[SaintsFan1977]

HH-the 49ers are an elite team. SL on the other end of the bar. Why is the number so low? Just my eyeball test leads me to think the number should be 6 or more. How does the lines maker entice anybody to play SL at that number?

Your thoughts?

Possibly to trick people into thinking its too easy? 3 points for homefield means SF is -6 on a neutral field. In reality STL doesnt have a 3 point HFA. More like 0.5. The only way STL covers or wins is if he Niners turn the ball over at least 3 times. If Kap passes on only 20% of their plays the Niners should still go down the field easily due to the run. Im on SF 1st half -2.5 and will play SF -3. Good luck.
Thanks

 

[Boltman]

HH, I agree 100% with your post. I gladly paid -125 to get SF -3. GL to us both and those who follow!

 

[Bad_Cat]

Seattle @ St. Louis this week and the line is Seattle -6.5

San Francisco @ St. Louis today and the line is San Francisco -3

Shouldn't these lines be about the same since both Seattle and San Francisco are similar as far as the books are concerned?

VERY INTERESTING

 

[paulfmf]

Seems there are 2 options. You bet SF or you don't bet at all. I don't see how anyone can bet SL. Yet I see line hasn't moved off of 3. What do the SL bettors know that I don't? Again, just my eyeball test.

 

[Donkwin47]

Seattle @ St. Louis this week and the line is Seattle -6.5

San Francisco @ St. Louis today and the line is San Francisco -3

Shouldn't these lines be about the same since both Seattle and San Francisco are similar as far as the books are concerned?

VERY INTERESTING

No. Seattle is better than San Francisco. If you think these teams are even, that would mean Seattle would be -3 at home against San Francisco. No way. Gimme Seattle all day.

 

[Bad_Cat]

No. Seattle is better than San Francisco. If you think these teams are even, that would mean Seattle would be -3 at home against San Francisco. No way. Gimme Seattle all day.

Go back and research the lines from last season sir. Last year Seattle was -3 at home versus San Francisco, and some would agree that the 2013 Seattle team is slightly better than what we have seen this year from them so far.

 

[Donkwin47]

Go back and research the lines from last season sir. Last year Seattle was -3 at home versus San Francisco, and some would agree that the 2013 Seattle team is slightly better than what we have seen this year from them so far.

That may be true, but do you think SF is better this year than last? I do not. And I did go back and look at the early lines for both SF/ SEA games this year. Found SEA -1.5 @SF and SEA -6.5 @SEA.

Edit: I do think those are a bit inflated towards SEA, but regardless, I'd love SEA -3 at home against pretty much anyone.

 

[Bad_Cat]

That may be true, but do you think SF is better this year than last? I do not. And I did go back and look at the early lines for both SF/ SEA games this year. Found SEA -1.5 @SF and SEA -6.5 @SEA.

At this point in the season the spring lines you are referring to are not a accurate perception for current lines. No matter what lines you throw out the two teams are as even as you can get as far as using them in the example that I did in post 5.

 

[Donkwin47]

At this point in the season the spring lines you are referring to are not a accurate perception for current lines. No matter what lines you throw out the two teams are as even as you can get as far as using them in the example that I did in post 5.

I guess aside from SEA just being better than SF, there are factors such as SEA coming off a loss as a sizable home favorite with Carolina on deck which isn't too scary and SF looking ahead to Denver. Plus STL will be on a short week after MNF. There are always gonna be scheduling spots and injuries and other aspects affecting a game. I guess all I was saying is I see Seattle as better than San Francisco and I'm not to surprised to see them as a larger favorite against the same team a week apart. Read into it what you will. Good luck with whatever you decide.

 

[jasonc69]

The line makers probably took three points off because Kap sucks! Lol

 

[Bad_Cat]

I guess aside from SEA just being better than SF, there are factors such as SEA coming off a loss as a sizable home favorite with Carolina on deck which isn't too scary and SF looking ahead to Denver. Plus STL will be on a short week after MNF. There are always gonna be scheduling spots and injuries and other aspects affecting a game. I guess all I was saying is I see Seattle as better than San Francisco and I'm not to surprised to see them as a larger favorite against the same team a week apart. Read into it what you will. Good luck with whatever you decide.

I agree with you on a few of your points but I can guarantee you one thing, without looking at the schedule the week before or after Thanksgiving day, San Francisco will be at least a 3 point favorite at home versus Seattle. That was the point I was trying to make.

 

[crazykind]

The rushing stats are scary to anyone considering the Rams, but i think its a little misleading considering who they played. Adrian Peterson on the road in week one (WR Cordarelle Patterson had over 100 yds rushing, 67 on one play), the Bucs in week 2 who had no passing game and shoved it up the gut 30 times, league leading rusher Demarco Murray in week 3 (24 rushes for 100, not horrible against that rb and o-line), and then Shady McCoy last week (held him to 81 yds on 24 carries)

If you take out Patterson's 3 carries in week one, which is fair since the Niners don't really run the fly sweep, the Rams have allowed 478 yards on 109 carries, for an avg of 4.38 yds per carry, which doesn't sound great but is top 10 in the NFL even after facing 3 elite backs in 4 weeks.

 

[powerz]

The book maker has higher opinion of the Rams so far this season.

Spring line was Niners -4.5


gl with your play Harry

 

[fadetheaction]

Perhaps the over could be a play. Best.

 

[JohnnyMags]

Isn't this a classic looks too good to be true?

 

[ThaDude]

The 9ers are a mess. Penalty after penalty and stupid plays by Kap. Not as good as Seattle and not the same team as years past.

 

[paulfmf]

BINGO. Nice call, HH. And thank you.

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

BINGO. Nice call, HH. And thank you.

Thank You paulfmf!!!!! Top plays on the weekend are the ones you really need to go after...How a team will perform against the spread in Following week-of The season is an enormous trap. The fact is isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams and teams with a losing record or low margin vs.ones with a high margin from the previous Week is where the line value resides. It's not the dog in the fight; it's the fight in the dog when it comes to football. Certainly that's how upsets can happen," "You get a big play here and there, you get a loose fumble, pick it up and score, things like that. You generally need to get one or two big breaks to get a big upset. If you can get those and not give the other team anything, it can happen."

Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT