St. Joes futures odds

[ppeter]

Is St. Joes a good futures bet at 16:1 to win the NCAA title? (CRIS) I don't recall ever seeing a shoo-in #1 regional seed at odds so high.

By posting these odds, the BM must think they are pretenders. The primary weakness I see for St. Joes is a lack of size. They are a very guard oriented team. But isn't that a strength in the tourament? Also, I think St. Joes will be a neutral crowd favorite throughout the tournament.

 

[WildBill]

I just can't see the point in it. If they are dogs in just two games you probably do better parlaying them to win six games in a row. Unless things fall very well for them this won't be a value because after the first weekend they don't figure to be more than a 4 or 5 point favorite unless a lot of upset occur around them.

 

[ppeter]

good point on the math.

 

[ppeter]

I see another interesting play at CRIS and that is the field at 25:1. Included (from top 64 RPI) would be:

*Providence*, Southern Ill, G. Tech, B.C., Vandy, LSU, UAB, Rutgers, Utah St., UTEP, Richmond, Depaul, Georgia, Virginia, Colorado, Michigan, Western Michigan, Air Force, Rice.

Providence (#12 in AP) is 30:1 at most places, so if you like them 25:1 at CRIS for Providence and 20 other decent teams seems like good value.

[This message was edited by ppeter on March 03, 2004 at 03:04 AM.]

 

[Horseshoe]

Though a Big-Five fan, St.Joe's has "gonna get dropped on their heads" written all over them.

Their limitations in the paint, is gonna make for a "Spinks jinx" by a big-bodied major conference team with a stable of size, or a polished mid-major, as long as either has a pair of sticky guards.

That field there, has some nice hedge possibilities if things get wacky, and one of Prov, So Ill, BC, Vandy, Ut St,etc..get favorable draws to make runs, but could be an illusion(as if bet now, it stands to lose LSU, UGa, and another few teams by Selection Sunday, despite RPIs)?

Take the points versus the mighty SEC & ACC(but must pick spots vs.Duke, or pass, as they will have a few blowouts).

Also take vs.Stanford after Gm-1(great team, but over-inflated as unbeaten, plus being Left-Coaster makes for large target by East Coast teams, aka Az in past decade tourneys).

Go with dogs in late games played in Salt Lake, also look for national tv coverage percentages as a factor in plays.

Not a Kenny Loggins fan, but sure miss NBC's closing of tourney with video recap set to "This Is It".

CBS' "One Shining Moment" nice, but song isn't on par with their great tv coverage.

Let The Games Commence!

[This message was edited by Horseshoe on March 04, 2004 at 04:12 AM.]

 

[Dante]

I agree ST JOE's weakness is rebounding...BUT IMO they will go to the Great 8 at the least

 

[Fishhead]

Assumming they were the following on the moneyline in the six games........

-800
-400
-200
-140
EV
EV

$100 would return you $1440........which would be 13.4-1.

Please note, the above moneylines are just theory.......adjust them to what you expect them to be in the 6 games and do the math.

 

[trytrytry]

interesting stuff here.

I think St. Joes is an overlay at 16-1

first round money line they figure to be off the charts -2400 they will be a 28 point favorite over somebody. Second round more like -600 then -200, -140, even +120 something like that.

 

[Fishhead]

trytrytry-

I would tend to agree with you.

I believe at 16-1, they are an overlay, no question about it.

They will be much higher than -800 in their 1st round game as you mentioned and more than -400 in their 2nd round game too probably.

 

[bayhillbum]

Fair price on St Joe's closer to 30-1. Agree with up to 20-1 to first round, but 8th and 9th seeds will be strong, unlikely more than 6 pt favorite, -250, in 2nd round. If survive that, pickem or undedog in both sweet 16 games. Feature 2nd/3rd/4th seeds - Conn, Ky, Ill, Wis, Nc St, Gonzaga and the like. Won't see final four, so I won't go there.

 

[KennyB]

St. Joes isn't going anywhere this year in the tournament. They have one of the weakest schedules out of any top 20 team and I expect them to get bounced out of the tournament early. As for the odds to win, they would be nice size dogs against Duke, UConn, Kentucky, etc.

 

[SoundofSilence]

They won't be more than -400 in their second round game. Any major conference opponent (which will be likely) will put them at the most -250. These guys can't hang with the big boys.

 

[bayhillbum]

Do not think St Joe's a "shoe-in" number one seed. If they don't win their conf tourney, no lock on Dayton's home court, and two of these three do win their conf tourney: Miss St, Ok St, Pitt, I don't believe St Joe will be a top seed. The NCAA has a history of not respecting these "mid-major" types, seed-wise, and the A-10 certainly has not distinguished themselves in past years.

 

[Seven]

Stanford won't do as well as people think neither. The Pac-10 is week this year.

 

[Seven]

St.Joes lives by the 3 and they will die by the 3. All it takes is one bad day from the field and they are done. They will be out of the tournament before the 8 team round.

 

[ppeter]

Someone just hit St. Joes at Cris. They are down to 12:1 now.

 

[wanderer]

I had them at 10 to 1 and thought that was a good value! 12 to is still great value IMO.
After the seedings are announced I predict the odds will fall considerably. They are only 8-1 right now at Intertops.

 

[ppeter]

Wow, looking at their roster I see that St. Joes has only one legit "big" man among their starters or usable bench. The guy is 6'11" but is only 225 lbs. The only other usable player of of any decent size is a 6'7" foward. If they do win the title, it may be with the smallest lineup in the modern era. But with the best backcourt in the country, who knows

 

[ppeter]

Wow, looking at their roster I see that St. Joes has only one legit "big" man among their starters or usable bench. The guy is 6'11" but is only 225 lbs. The only other usable player of of any decent size is a 6'7" foward. If they do win the title, it may be with the smallest lineup in the modern era. But with the best backcourt in the country, who knows

 

[crazy12345]

these guys are good but are they really going to make it against the pac 10, big east and acc?