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Our top play yesterday cashed as Az continued its dominanace over the Reds by winning for the 16th straight time against them. Todays Top Play is once again the AZ Diamondbacks(-1.90) laying $950 to win $500. This is absolutely the most chalk that id ever lay in a big game and my four other plays today are dogs.. AZ goes for its 17th straight tonight as they send Brandon Webb to the mound, Webb grew up in Ashland Ky, which is around 150 miles from cincy, he expects to have around 60 people in the stands tonight from his hometown.. What can i say about this matchup, AZ is the better team with a playoff spot on the line, the Reds are a losing home team that is in shambles, Webb is the better pitcher in this matchup and one of the better pitchers in the league, i went over most of this stuff yesterday so i wont repeat it today,, Ill end by saying this: every filter or indicator that i use, says that AZ is the play, does that mean that they will win this game (of course not), however it does make AZ our top 5 unit play today. The entire card.
AZ(-1.90) for 5 units, laying $950 to win $500.
Fla(+1.05) listed for 1 unit, laying $100 to win $105.
Bos(+1.05) listed for 1 unit, laying $100 to win $105, played this last night before line movement.
Hou(+1.50) listed for 1 unit, laying $100 to win $150, played this last night before line movement.
CWS(+1.05) listed for 1 unit, laying $100 to win $105.
Our winning dogs are running 8-7(+3.23 units) for the week, lets hope it continues and that Az cashes again, as things seem to get back on track..
AZ(-1.90) for 5 units, laying $950 to win $500.
Fla(+1.05) listed for 1 unit, laying $100 to win $105.
Bos(+1.05) listed for 1 unit, laying $100 to win $105, played this last night before line movement.
Hou(+1.50) listed for 1 unit, laying $100 to win $150, played this last night before line movement.
CWS(+1.05) listed for 1 unit, laying $100 to win $105.
Our winning dogs are running 8-7(+3.23 units) for the week, lets hope it continues and that Az cashes again, as things seem to get back on track..
I'm not betting on the ariz/cin game so I have no vested interest, but I get real cautious whenever all fundamental signs (such as the ones you talked about) point to a big favorite...it's just a hunch on my part. I think cincinatti is due to have a high-scoring game soon and tonight may be that night. Besides I remember what happened with Yankees and Clemens's big-chalk 300th win game propaganda which happened to lose something like 3 straight times..Clemens had his family and friends out there on the mound those times too. I don't know, I definitely hope you cash and by all logical reasoning, you should. Now that I spewed forth all this negativity, a little reverse-jinx should work in your favor
i know exactly what you mean, and i wish that my Top Play was not such a big chalk play.. Its just that, in my way of capping games, i have a series of filters that i use.. Big favorites and big dogs are most often kicked out, however tonight i couldnt find a reason not to play AZ, the only thing reasonably close was, AZ has a losing road record.. all my other indicators or filter, pointed to AZ as a very strong play.. Like i said, i just want to win this one..
would also like to add that cincy is 6-12 on thursdays this year, their worst day of the week, Brandon Webb's fiance and high school coach will also be attending tonights game.. Webb also has a razor thin 1.74 era on the road this season.. Guys i know that AZ may lose this game, no way will i dispute that, its always a possibility.. Ill be proud to win, i dont like risking $950 on any game,, ever.. But i must stick with my way of capping and go with the decision..
Nice analysis SSI, the Reds will only avg about 2 runs in these situations. It's hard to see Harang and the Reds bullpen keeping the D' Backs under 3, very often. The Reds bullpen is considerably weaker with Mercker gone back to the Braves.
We all know chalk can really choke you , but in this game I think -1.90 is a bargain.
We all know chalk can really choke you , but in this game I think -1.90 is a bargain.
No one seems to be mentioning the D'backs' lack of hitting. They have had a couple good games within the last few but Cincy had a good game a few back also.
Harang has been pitching well lately so that's why I figure AZ won't score many. I have Cincy at +1.5 so if AZ wins by one then SSI and I both win.
Harang has been pitching well lately so that's why I figure AZ won't score many. I have Cincy at +1.5 so if AZ wins by one then SSI and I both win.
