boy did i look at this game, if pressed (id take the cubs), i think zambrano is as good as any of the pitchers under 25.. however what stopped, and i have some filters on 'why not to play games", was houston's home record, and the fact miller dominated them the last time out.. it was a "no play" for me.
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i understand completely, biggames.. that is one of your filters, the card was weak today (in my opinion), braves vs. expos, small price to lay on the braves,, common sense says --- take braves.. does not mean that they will win though.. as for the yanks/redsox, the only way that i could play it, would be yanks,, pedro has been good his last few starts, wells has been so-so, not much different in the records in this one.. yanks are probably worth a shot here and some would call it value,, i say its never value, if you dont win.. i think pedro and the sox will win this one but no way can i lay this price against the yanks, so its a no play.. everyone has their own way of capping, i have many things that i look at.. some of the most important ones for me are,,,, price, team mojo, team record, pithcher comparison, pitcher vs. opponent, lefty/righty vs. opponent, home and road records comparison, last 10 comparison, pitchers last 3 starts.. i like a hot team at the best price, with the best pitcher going.. of course, who doesnt.. -- you can make a case for atlanta being a hot team, also they are at a good price, best pitcher (thats debateable).. same thing for minn, i think kc fits the scenario perfectly, and -1.50 just squeezes into a good price..
thanks dude, i had a great run, its reflected in the standings of the challenge, in the contest, in my bankroll -- but i cant get caught up in that, id prefer to finish out the season in a "not so exciting fashion", give me the good old 2 out of 3 days -- with an occassional sweep of the card day.. your about as good as your last few plays..
From SSI:
"i say its never value, if you dont win.. "
LOL. Truer words were never spoken. I'm going to write that one down because not only is it funny, it's so true. Some may say this is obvious yet those same people bet on a game based solely upon the odds that team is getting, not how likely that team is to win.
"i say its never value, if you dont win.. "
LOL. Truer words were never spoken. I'm going to write that one down because not only is it funny, it's so true. Some may say this is obvious yet those same people bet on a game based solely upon the odds that team is getting, not how likely that team is to win.
SSI, so true. It drives me nuts when people speak of value. I understand wanting a better price than you feel something is worth, but I'm like you, give me winners. In the Bluegrass contest I went with big favorites, of course, since there was no odds. I also bet those picks for $100 which I usually don't do at such high prices. After a couple of winners I doubled the bets. I ended up $1300 on those picks. It hurt like hell losing $460 on Cleveland last night but looking at the big picture I can't complain. Sometimes a big favorite isn't bad value. You have to be picky though.
I love reading your posts. You are one of the handicappers I look for first. I miss Dogball. Between you and him I could compair my card and remove differences and press the picks we have the same. This has worked real well for me the last couple of weeks. Keep up the good work. Sorry for such a long post.
I love reading your posts. You are one of the handicappers I look for first. I miss Dogball. Between you and him I could compair my card and remove differences and press the picks we have the same. This has worked real well for me the last couple of weeks. Keep up the good work. Sorry for such a long post.
