Still very early, but wagerline right now has 62% on Car +7. My thought on the line...
opened at 6 to get the sharp action in. Hoping to get some square action at this number and possibly balance out. If not, raise to 7 a day or two before the game and let the square money pour in on Carolina.
I can't imagine any "sharp" is buying in at Car +6.5...will wait for the 7 if anything.
opened at 6 to get the sharp action in. Hoping to get some square action at this number and possibly balance out. If not, raise to 7 a day or two before the game and let the square money pour in on Carolina.
I can't imagine any "sharp" is buying in at Car +6.5...will wait for the 7 if anything.
SHRINK-
care to clue us in as to why some "sharps" don't buy from 7 to 7.5 if they would buy the 6.5 to 7?
If someone thinks there is value in buying the 6.5 to 7, then there must be value in buying the 7 to 7.5. Frequency of a push is the same in either scenario, so you are either buying a loss to a push or a push to a win.
The only reason I would think that one is profitable and the other is not is if you have some data that says the frequency of a line of 6.5 landing on 7 is greater than a line of 7 landing on 7. Otherwise, both should have the same value.
Unless it is the psychological effects of a loss than are trying to be eliminated...
care to clue us in as to why some "sharps" don't buy from 7 to 7.5 if they would buy the 6.5 to 7?
If someone thinks there is value in buying the 6.5 to 7, then there must be value in buying the 7 to 7.5. Frequency of a push is the same in either scenario, so you are either buying a loss to a push or a push to a win.
The only reason I would think that one is profitable and the other is not is if you have some data that says the frequency of a line of 6.5 landing on 7 is greater than a line of 7 landing on 7. Otherwise, both should have the same value.
Unless it is the psychological effects of a loss than are trying to be eliminated...
