You'd be hard pressed to find a bigger NFL square than me but I try and take notes so I can go over things until they make sense. Some like to know only what it is they need to know (which is fine) but I like to know how and why behind the numbers. I copied this a year or two ago from Mr Bend Over and wanted to throw this out here for us squares. Now if you can figure out how to use this informaton you will be ahead of the game.
-1.5 -1 0.97%
-2 -1.5 1.23%
-2.5 -2 2.42%
-3 -2.5 5.71%
-3.5 -3 3.50%
-4 -3.5 0.73%
-4.5 -4 0.74%
-5 -4.5 0.89%
-5.5 -5 0.76%
-6 -5.5 0.88%
-6.5 -6 1.11%
-7 -6.5 2.40%
-7.5 -7 0.89%
-8 -7.5 1.79%
-8.5 -8 1.19%
-9 -8.5 0.78%
-9.5 -9 0.00%
-10 -9.5 2.81%
The chart above shows the % you are increasing your edge by if you get off the first consensus number and onto the new one. This is if you are betting the favorite in this example. First thing you have to know is the break even points, if you lay -110 than you need to hit 52.38% to break even. If you lay -120 (like when you buy off a #) the break even is 54.55%. So any number in the column that is higher than 2.17 (54.55% - 52.38%) will show a long term edge in buying the half point. That is all you need to know.
So armed with that information let's look at the chart. If for some reason you bought off the 9 to 8- you have paid an extra 10 cents to gain a .78% edge, not even 1%. If a players normal win % is 55% then he now has improved his win % to 55.78%, no thanks. Not even close to the break even of 2.17% edge you need to make the play. However if you can buy off the 3 to 2.5 it increases your win 5.71% so you know there is nice value in doing so at -120. Look around, you don't see Aces Gold here anymore do you?
Basically buying off the 3 is okay at -130, surely the right move if you can get -125 or less, -120 is like stealing if you can find it. Mostly the point today is instead of wasting time figuring out when to take a half point off a number I recommend increasing your outs and shopping lines hard. You can probably find an extra 1/2 point easily if you are just playing out of 1 out right now by just adding a few more places to get a bet down. At least on most numbers you can. Even last night I had a choice of playing Redskins -3 or taking them -2.5 at -120. Look at the chart above and it is clear what the right call was even if you didn't know the rght answer. If there is one rule us squares need to know it is understanding the importance of having more outs to shop. If you are playing out of one local or book you are giving money away every year I don't care how good you think you are at capping games.
Anyway good luck and I hope this helps. Just throwing it out to get other comments. Sometimes people won't share a thing but if you post something incorrect they can't wait to get in here and correct you, LOL. I will do the same thing for hoops when it cranks up as well if anyone is interested.
-1.5 -1 0.97%
-2 -1.5 1.23%
-2.5 -2 2.42%
-3 -2.5 5.71%
-3.5 -3 3.50%
-4 -3.5 0.73%
-4.5 -4 0.74%
-5 -4.5 0.89%
-5.5 -5 0.76%
-6 -5.5 0.88%
-6.5 -6 1.11%
-7 -6.5 2.40%
-7.5 -7 0.89%
-8 -7.5 1.79%
-8.5 -8 1.19%
-9 -8.5 0.78%
-9.5 -9 0.00%
-10 -9.5 2.81%
The chart above shows the % you are increasing your edge by if you get off the first consensus number and onto the new one. This is if you are betting the favorite in this example. First thing you have to know is the break even points, if you lay -110 than you need to hit 52.38% to break even. If you lay -120 (like when you buy off a #) the break even is 54.55%. So any number in the column that is higher than 2.17 (54.55% - 52.38%) will show a long term edge in buying the half point. That is all you need to know.
So armed with that information let's look at the chart. If for some reason you bought off the 9 to 8- you have paid an extra 10 cents to gain a .78% edge, not even 1%. If a players normal win % is 55% then he now has improved his win % to 55.78%, no thanks. Not even close to the break even of 2.17% edge you need to make the play. However if you can buy off the 3 to 2.5 it increases your win 5.71% so you know there is nice value in doing so at -120. Look around, you don't see Aces Gold here anymore do you?
Basically buying off the 3 is okay at -130, surely the right move if you can get -125 or less, -120 is like stealing if you can find it. Mostly the point today is instead of wasting time figuring out when to take a half point off a number I recommend increasing your outs and shopping lines hard. You can probably find an extra 1/2 point easily if you are just playing out of 1 out right now by just adding a few more places to get a bet down. At least on most numbers you can. Even last night I had a choice of playing Redskins -3 or taking them -2.5 at -120. Look at the chart above and it is clear what the right call was even if you didn't know the rght answer. If there is one rule us squares need to know it is understanding the importance of having more outs to shop. If you are playing out of one local or book you are giving money away every year I don't care how good you think you are at capping games.
Anyway good luck and I hope this helps. Just throwing it out to get other comments. Sometimes people won't share a thing but if you post something incorrect they can't wait to get in here and correct you, LOL. I will do the same thing for hoops when it cranks up as well if anyone is interested.
