The disclaimer I will put on this is I am not the voice of authority on this. Not even going to pretend to be anything close. I will pass on some real life experiences of mine and more importantly hope others sharper than I will contribute. When thinking of the name who better to host SQUARE TALK than Mr Square himself. That's me Patrick McIrish. Part of learning in life is being humble enough to admit you don't already have all the answers. Got a dozen of the smartest men in the world who already post here, this is for us who are secure enough to admit we can improve. There's a saying one thing a man MUST know before he can teach his dog tricks is more than the dog. LOL. Not sure I know more than most here so keep that in mind. If we help one person learn some stuff it will be worth it plus I can tell Shrink I was busy working. The fact I love this stuff anyway is besides the point. Coming off my play losing 9-0 last night it seemed like the time was right for SQUARE TALK to get off the ground......
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In my opinion winning at sportsbetting is a lot like a football team as it evolves. I live in Tampa and in 1976 when the Bucs entered the NFL we went 0-26 in our first two seasons before winning a game, an NFL record. This year we won the Super Bowl. As you progress in sportsbetting you will notice changes in the way you think, just like a team does. They claim a team goes through 3 steps on it's way to being a proven winner. Again using the Bucs for example, when they entered the league they were going through step #1 which is hoping you can win. When you line up Sunday you have good intentions and a desire to win. Step #2 comes about when you evolve to the point where the team starts to thing we CAN win. No more hoping, the team works hard in practice and they feel they can win when they flip the coin every week. Finally step #3 is when a team EXPECTS to win. Doesn't seem like a big difference but when you expect to win versus thinking you can win it is night and day. We've all bet on teams and you just feel they will not lose this game. I sat in the Old Sombrero as Berman calls it and if the Bucs were up 21-0 at halftime you still just did not believe they would win. Nowadays if they are down 21-0 at halftime you still expect them to win. More importantly the same thoughts of either expecting to win or wondering if we would win were in those locker rooms. In both instances I would guess it showed on the field as well.
How does this correspond to sportsbetting? Not sure yet but trying to make up something. LOL. No the point here is first to win at anything you have to be honest with yourself. Some people will NEVER win betting sports. The reason for it is as varied as the chicks Dennis Rodman dates. Some don't win because they don't want to. Sure he'd like to win but he's calling his bookie to lay half a yard on his favorite team to win on a line he got out of the newspaper. Others want to win but they don't want to put the time or effort in to learn how. Still others would put the time in if they knew what they were suppossed to be doing in trying to learn. And yet still some others just want action. They are only betting because the tracks are closed, the on-line lottery is full or the midget throwing over in Australia has been suspended for a few days. They want ACTION! Having that action is much more important than anything else. As I said, lots of reasons people don't win.
For our first think tank I want to talk on the part about getting your bet down. Most wiseguys will tell you there is nothing more important in betting sports THAN PLAYING AT THE BEST NUMBER! It's a very good rule to get used to when conducting your business. Say I like the Bucs -6 but earlier it was -4, if I missed the price I need I pass on the game. The value has disappeared. If I have to choose between picking the best handicapper in the world and taking the worst number, or taking the best number with Beaner doing the handicapping than I go with Beaner. It is that important. In no real ogranized manner here are some suggestions for us squares.....
Nothing I hear more from a friend of mine than what's the big deal on the price? This guy makes 50 wagers a week but only has one out. Doesn't want another one either. I beg him to at least add a couple more outs but he just doesn't see it. I have shown him where a difference can be a 1/2 point to 2 points but it's no big deal to him. If you are going to win it has to be a big deal. Frankly I think the amount of outs is overrated in my view. Often people wear it as a badge of honor. "Hell I've got 83 outs I use, the wife carries another 20 if I need them". Unless you are running a professional scalp and middle team you don't need that many. You do need a bare minumum of 4 or 5 outs though. If you can't afford it or don't recognize why you need them than go find the naked picture or hangman thread and leave us alone here. The truth is though if you are playing with this few they have to be books who hang different numbers. No need in having a Skybook account and a Rio account if they hang the exact same prices. You need books who will have the greatest variance you can find on games. The idea being whichever side you are on you will have a shot at the best number. So a couple of good books who like dogs and a couple who like chalk would be a good start. If you don't know which books are which feel free to ask me, it changes depending on the sport. I also recommend keeping locals if you have any, I will get more into this down the road but they can be a nice ace in the hole.
I also think you need to start learning to set prices on the games too. Before you even look at the overnights for the lines you should practice setting your own lines. Nothing will teach you quicker what goes into the lines than trying to set your own. The numbers are set mostly for the books in order to attempt to get balanced action. Does not always mean they agree with the lines they hang necessarily. I'm just making this up (it may or may not be true) but if the public as a rule puts too much emphasis on a star's injury the pro's who set the openers may take that into account. Let's say Peyton Manning is out. With Peyton the line may be Colts -4, without him they may change it to Colts -1. In reality the line should only be -3 or so but if the public has a history of overreacting to a star's injury the guys who set the lines already know this. Be aware of the role injuries play in the lines. Also they may know the public loves to bet the Yankees, Duke, Cowboys etc... so they shade the lines against them. These aren't great examples but the point is in order to beat the lines you have to understand where they are coming from and how they are set. What all goes into them? How can you recognize value if you have no idea what something is worth? How can someone have an opinion on totals in baseball if they do not know what 7, 8 or 9 is worth? How often do these numbers hit and how many cents is half a run worth for example? Which is better 8.5 over -120 or 9 over +110? In poker one of the first things in Hold 'em we learned was get used to putting your opponent on a hand. Tough to play your hand and get any long term results if you have no idea what the other guy has. Practice it and it becomes second nature even if you have to back up in the hand to make an educated guess. "He limped in from early position yet he check raised the flop etc....." Does no good at all to see Pinnacle has the Twins at -180 if you don't have any idea where the number should be.
I will stop now and see if anyone else can add to what we have talked about so far or correct me if need be. Again I want to be perfectly clear that I work here so I'd like to have these talks but sometimes it comes across as me pretending to be some sort of wiseguy. I am just here trying to learn like everyone else. To me I have went through similar steps as I mentioned above in betting. I started out hoping I could win. I won't use the NFL because that is clearly my weakest sport and I'm fooling no one other than myself if I don't understand I have to work at this game. In baseball I can usually grind out a small winner for the season but it took a while to get here. I know of not one long term gambler who has not ever been busted. Not one! When younger I was busted more than a "Virgins Gone Bad" 3 pack special at the porn store. I started having a little success in baseball and began reading everything I could get my hands on. I opened up with a few more outs and began to study the game. Still wasn't really winning but slowly the attitude came that I felt I CAN win at this sport. Still I made stupid mistakes. I'd have no money management or discipline. I'd spend hours capping a game and if I lost it try and double up on the late game to get even. Or if I had money in my accounts or a positive balance than I could hardly stand to let it sit there until my next play, I wanted to get it in action. Mistake after mistake. Eventually I started to realize what it takes to win in baseball. I mentioned some of them above. More than one out where I can shop for the best lines. Some sort of money management and a basic understanding of what the lines and numbers represent. Slowly I began to EXPECT to win. While to this day I hate to lose I learned a bad night didn't discourage me off the long term plan. A night in sportsbetting is like one hand in poker, that's it. If you are making the value plays you will win long term. I don't know the disparity on how long a winner can lose or a loser can win but don't let that fool you, it can last a while. If you are making plays and taking the worst of it you will go busted eventually. I have played poker with people who said there is no way in this lifetime that man will ever go broke. If you are playing poker incorrectly, spending time at the crap table, playing slot machines with negative expectation or any of a number of things you will lose your bankroll eventually. The only variables are how often you take the worst of it, how big you are playing and how big your bankroll was when you started. There is no cheating in this game, you are only fooling yourself. If you are a loser at these games and taking the worst of it the only question is if you will live long enough to go busted. It's coming. Anyway thanks for listening men. If anyone likes this or gets anything out of it I will make it a regular thing. If not you won't hurt my feelings, they've toughened me up around here. Peace.
[This message was edited by Patrick McIrish on June 30, 2003 at 11:21 PM.]
