SportSavant Wednesday 03/17

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YTD:
1% = 51-47-5 (+5.97 units)
3% = 0-2 (-6.45 units)
5% = 0-0 (1 play pending Senator Points for March)
(Began Posting/Tracking NHL plays at RX just before the ALLSTAR break).

***Guys above is my ***HONEST*** record of my plays posted since the allstar break, I highlight the word honest, as we all know that as we go through these threads at the RX there are many cappers, however few that keep an UPDATED, day to day record with a reasonable Money Management Strategy. Vegas Vic obviously does in his threads, aswell as Black & Gold, Occams & Hansen, Oldmanted & many others who I know that I am missing. other cappers will use statements such as "5-0 in the past week" to make themselves look hot but the honesty behind their selections is often vague....what good is a 5-0 week if every other week was a loser?

Lately I am re-evaluating my SYSTEM for which I will be releasing plays here...I figure today is the best day to do it, as I am roughly even so far (Not Including the 5% pending play for march which doesnt look good)....It is for this reason that I will reset my record today to ZERO's & start tracking again starting from the beginning...choosing to do it today so that nobody can accuse me of trying to bury a losing Record....

I am a firm beleiver that the way to be succesful overtime by grounding out the profits...This has become even more obvious to me by the fact that I am 0-2 in my 3% plays here & looking like I will be 0-1 in my 5% play. I am also 0-2 in my 2% plays in the NBA...All this but I have a winning record in both NBA & NHL in my multiple 1% Plays....Even if I had lumped my higher unit plays & count them as 1% each I would still be nicely in the black in each sport...

I will take the lead from Our Newest & Most impressive RX NHL capper VegasVic in terms of what seems to be a very sound Money Management system.

Going forward I will track my Plays as:

1% or 1.5% that is it...no 5% nonsense...the idea is to protect what you have....We all live & learn.

The reason I use a % symbol instead of UNIT or STAR's is simply to outline that the play should be roughly 1% of your Gambling Bankroll...

Now many people do not have a set bankroll, they take out of their accounts & add to them periodically, I still feel however it is important to create an imaginary Bankroll, what I mean by this is put a dollar value forward & ask yourself the Question....

WHAT IS THE MOST AMOUNT OF MONEY I CAN LOSE WITHOUT CREATING PROBLEMS IN MY PERSONAL LIFE...

If the amount is 10000$ then your 1 unit play should be 100$...If your amount is 5000$, then your 1% amount should be 50$.....It may seem boring to only play 50$ a play, but two things will result, you will last longer in this business & your bankroll is more likely to grow. Eventually if your bankroll goes up you can increase the size of your 1%.

Enough babbling for now...

New tracking starts as of Today

1% = 0-0-0 (+0.00)
1.5% = 0-0-0 (+0.00)
 

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1% NJ/Pitt Under 5.5 -120 1.20/1.00

The Penguin's little fantasy on ice with their recent run ends tonite...NJ will control this game & the final score will be 3-0 or 3-1.

How is that for a bold prediction...You can go ahead & Bank 1% on it...
 

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A couple of quick comments on your post as I’m pressed for time and I’ve got plenty of homework to do. (crash course for some March Madness limited action on my part)

First of all bravo for wiping the slate clean both literally and figuratively. Even though as you stated, you basically are at even today. choke Sens bet not with standing ;-)
No time to dwell on past mistakes. Time to pick up the pieces, (learn from them and know in your heart that mistake will never happen again), and go forward with renewed purpose and positive strategy.

Next bravo…. “WHAT IS THE MOST AMOUNT OF MONEY I CAN LOSE WITHOUT CREATING PROBLEMS IN MY PERSONAL LIFE…” Absolutely a 100 percent correct perspective in determining a bankroll.

Next point….I get so sick and tired of hearing this guy’s 5 star lock of the millennium or this guy’s AFC play of the year or bla, bla , bla. Picking friggin’ winners is hard enough!
Why complicate things more than the need to be? I’m no math wiz or rocket scientist but I’ve paid my dues in many ways through a lifetime of mistakes and if there was one thing I learned in regard to one sports selection of being 5 times greater in being correct compared to the next is bullshit. If I had a million bucks and you offered me a even money bet that the Dallas Stars were to win that game last night while they led 3-0 over San Jose with less than seven minutes to go in the game and everything I knew about their past histories, trends, or the way they both were playing up to that minute, I would have put every penny on it, (well at least the old me would have). And as sure of a bet, or great of a value, as it might have seemed at that moment it would have ended the same way all those 5 star locks of the millenniums end up. A losing ticket held forever by one pissed off bettor.

My point is after a long life of gambling on sports the one truth is anything can and will happen. Because of this simple truth no one pick deserves to be a three star, five star, or thousand star selection. Sure you can have a pick that holds a bit more weight than another but never, IMHO, more than a half unit more than the rest. Why? Because shit happens.

Lastly….the plan of only betting 1 or 1.5 percent of your bankroll is fine and that system, (providing you stick to it), will not help you “last longer”. It will help you last forever. The only way you will ever be out of the game is if your bankroll dwindles to change and you can’t find a book to handle your very merger 1% wager. And baby that would take a losing streak like the history of homo erectus has never seen. Actually if anyone could be that bad and consistent you could make a fortune and sell your picks as the ultimate fade engine.

Lastly the percentage doesn’t need to be one percent of your bankroll. It could be five percent but understand that wager limits will be very volatile unless you can stay somewhat consistent. However luck runs in streaks, (the #2 truth of sports wagering) and be prepared for it to run south from time to time. (In my case that would be from 1984 through somewhere after I sobered up in the mid nineties). But whether your betting 1% or 5% if you stay disciplined in this plan you will never, EVER run out of a bankroll. It forces you to bet more when your winning, (which is not always your first instinct to do) and it will demand you bet less as you hit the rocks, (which definitely is not the instinctive thing to do!)

Best of luck gentlemen. Enjoy March Madness. And don’t forget Savant….I asked the eight ball about your future and it said “all signs point yes”. (hope that’s a good thing)

Peace,

Vic
 

I don't know enough to know I don't know
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You dare fade our flightless feathered friends? And my lottery five star lock of the millennium????

Treading on very thin ice my man.
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> You dare fade our flightless feathered friends? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

well let me restate it then...."The Devils manage to put a stop to these Penguin antics but not before they score a goal in the first which holds up through the entire Buzzer."

Final- Pitt 1 NJ 0
 

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well, I knew the devils would take care of business but I didnt think they would break records doing it...
icon_mad.gif
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> A couple of quick comments on your post as I’m pressed for time and I’ve got plenty of homework to do. (crash course for some March Madness limited action on my part) <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

please share what u come up with
icon_wink.gif
 

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