SportSavant for Monday Feb 23rd 2004

[SportSavant]

YTD 11-3 (Began Posting/Tracking NBA plays at RX just before the ALLSTAR break) Every play for 1 Unit (which in a perfect world for me would = 1% of bankroll)

Tonite I am going with the Clevland cav's + 3.5 (skybook) to win their third in a row. Clevland seems like a motivated team right now & although i do acknowledge that they played last night do not feel fatigue will be a factor in this game.

The home team has won 12 of 14 of the games in this series & the hornets have lost their last two trips to Gund Arena. New Orleans has a losing Record on the road, while Clevland has a winning record at home...Also beleive that Clevland has the motivation factor going for them in this game as the playoff's are still a possibility for the upstart cav's...Factor in the Home court, aswell as the extra 3.5 points & I really like this play.

Would appreciate & welcome all comments on this game as I may be betting a bit more than usual on this play...for RX record keeping however it will be only 1 Unit as all other plays...

 

[Kodiak7]

great start! keep up the great work...

 

[TheFunkMonkey]

FWIW, lots of books had NO -2 last night. Could be a bad spot for the Cavs. They're coming off wins against Spurs and Knicks. Time for a letdown?

Hornets have the beef to counter Z and Boozer. Also, Cavs don't do a good job of defending the 3-pointer, and the Hornets like to shoot the 3.

 

[SportSavant]

good point funk,

u do hve to me mindful of the early move, especially if you subscribe to the theory thaat sharp's will usually play early...most seasond gamblers have more respect for the early rather than the late move I do beleive. Seems like they are begging for action on the home team at + 3.0, especially the way the Cavs played yesterday, that has gotta make you nervous, you are right.

Nonethelss with 3.5 I am getting an additional 1.5 points to the opening line...besides...even the best cappers are wrong 42$ of the time...lol...

 

[SportSavant]

wow, now I am really nervous...seems like I am against the world on this play???

If I had waited I could have gotten + 4 -113 at skybook....

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

Well SS, let me refer to two recent situations, Where Cavs played B to B, with road in front of home. Feb 6th, at Minny, loser. At home 7th crushed by Wash, 106-88. Yikes. Next, earlier in year, play at Orl, lose, come back to host Bulls, lose 87-80. Again, a big upset. Look at Cavs depth for reason, or their lack of. They are only 7 deep, and three guys including Lebron played 42+ minutes. Hornets coming off of Nets favortism run loss, where just whistles for Nets seemed to be working. Rested, walkarounds, yesterday. Before loss playing very well, and under .500 on road, by one game. Hornets really liked former coach, play hard to impress. Look for dead legs in this one as Cavs have shown 3 factors for tonight's demise. Play on road night before. Travel back home, and have minimum depth. Cavs been blasted at home as of late, 20 by Nets, 16 by Mavs and 18 point Wash game. This is in Feb. Not sure what I would do here, as do not lay points on road to often, but Cavs are set up to fall hard. Beware, O F

 

[SportSavant]

excellent points,

were the cav's however hot at that point of the season & did they have the motivation they now have...that being said I will definately leave this game at one unit...hoping for at least the cover....

FWIW glad to see the line at pinny is back down to 3...they are ususally quite sharp.

Thanks for all the words fellows...good DD for anyone looking at this game tonite...

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

Lebron James 44 Jeff Mcinnis, 42, Zydrunas Ilgauskas 42. Awful lot of minutes, in the Garden, plus if you watched that game, the Cavs were gassed and watched their big 23 point lead shrink to 4. Final by 6. I do not care how hot they are, rest will be a gigantic factor as it just kills teams with no depth. Same guys got too many minutes last night, have to play them again. I like Hornets 2nd half if they have not run Cavs off the floor by the first half. Best Wishes...O F

 

[TheFunkMonkey]

Just watched the 1st Qtr. Unreal. Hornets shot 15-18, 4-4 on 3-pointers.

Baron and Mash were both 6-6 with two 3-pointers.

SS, not looking good for you. But this is the NBA, you never know. Big leads in the 1st Half are often meaningless. If the Cavs can cut it to 10 by the 4th Qtr, they've got a shot.

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

The Cavs coffin is already shut, just a few nails left. Dead legs do not comeback. Looks like I do not get to play Hornets in 2nd half. Early movement can be deadly. Least I talked you down to a unit instead of loading up. Sorry SS O F

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

Congrats S S sweet comeback. Game was decided by amazing Cavs never seen before bench. Jason Copono? 7-9 5-5 trey's 19 points in 16 minutes. I doubt any starter got over 32 minutes. Great adjustment by Silas. Bit fortunate with unknown shooting lights out. Guess they were hot. O F

 

[SportSavant]

well OF,

I am glad I was at the gym for the first quarter....that would have been painful...

Thanks for helping out by posting that the cav's were done...everytime this happens at the RX, a curse comes in full force & there is sure to be a comeback...LOL It has happened over & over again on this message boards...RXER's will tell you about it...I was guilty of doing it yesterday with Atlanta in Overtime & funk money called me on it...LOL

The sharps may have been right on the fundamentals in this one (If they in fact moved the line from 2 to 4...), however the motivation factor was underestimated...

Don't get me wrong...I do realise that I got VERY LUCKY in this game...but heck...we have all heard...'you need to be good to be lucky & lucky to be good...'


YTD 12-3