dimeplayersonly,
Thank you Sir for the "reality check".
Given that you are 'on the other side of the counter', you are unquestionably a man with honorable ethics. I am honestly touched by your efforts to steer the naive away from disaster as opposed to attempts to profit from it.
ATX is certainly an exception in his abilities/strategies and it could be misleading to many Newbies to imply that 'the more bets' the better. Much of that discussion was probably not appropriate for a 'Newbie' forum, but I applaud ATX for sharing the info since it is so seldom done.
dimeplayersonly, you offer very sound advice for Newbies: Sports Betting can be fun and it can enhance your enjoyment of sporting events - so long as it is done as recreation.
I find a similarity between Sports Bettors and Muscians, 99% of those involved 'pay to play' and only 1% can 'make a living' from it. ( these statistics are not accurate but are for illustrative purposes ). There is nothing wrong with either role, so long as the members of each category are clear about which role they are experiencing. Unfortunately, there is usually a margin of grey in-between.
Thanks again both to ATX and dimesplayeronly.
-punter puppy
Thank you Sir for the "reality check".
Given that you are 'on the other side of the counter', you are unquestionably a man with honorable ethics. I am honestly touched by your efforts to steer the naive away from disaster as opposed to attempts to profit from it.
ATX is certainly an exception in his abilities/strategies and it could be misleading to many Newbies to imply that 'the more bets' the better. Much of that discussion was probably not appropriate for a 'Newbie' forum, but I applaud ATX for sharing the info since it is so seldom done.
dimeplayersonly, you offer very sound advice for Newbies: Sports Betting can be fun and it can enhance your enjoyment of sporting events - so long as it is done as recreation.
I find a similarity between Sports Bettors and Muscians, 99% of those involved 'pay to play' and only 1% can 'make a living' from it. ( these statistics are not accurate but are for illustrative purposes ). There is nothing wrong with either role, so long as the members of each category are clear about which role they are experiencing. Unfortunately, there is usually a margin of grey in-between.
Thanks again both to ATX and dimesplayeronly.
-punter puppy
dime, excellent post. listen to dimeplayersonly, guys, you need to hear from the other side of the counter. I book a little myself, and I may elaborate on that a little sometime. My input is to help keep what dime sees everyday from happening to you, if nothing else. You've got to understand that my last post takes place over 4 to 5 years. My learning curve is a little abnormal (in just about everything, not just the sports market). It takes me a little longer to catch on to a lot of things. I'm very systematic, and it's kind of like putting a puzzle together. At first it takes a long time to see the first two pieces that fit. But when you start seeing angles and correlations that fit together, the last few pieces come together faster and faster. But there are many frustrations along the way, and your confidence will be all but destroyed many times as pieces that look like they fit together end up being fool's gold. And then the fool's gold that you wager against ends up being a gold mine, and then you REALLY get confused. I have destroyed at least 5 or 6 TV's, computers, radios, my entire office, tried to find phone numbers to make death threats to relievers (j/k), gone out and celebrated a big victory for two days only to find out YAHOO POSTED THE F***ING SCORE WRONG, etc. etc. etc. You know what, all of the above helps relieve stress, especially when you can laugh about it later. I no longer can talk about sports with many people because for some reason it's almost like talking about politics or religion, things get heated and turn south fast. Once someone knows what I do, they instantly get defensive and try to prove me wrong more often than not, instead of listening to angles that make money every year. All the vast majority of sports fans see are the final scores from the day before, most dont know a lot of the teams' records, and very few know home/away records which are really one of the most important things. A lot of my close friends used to get VERY upset with me for betting against the Longhorns, I am still very much a huge UT fan, but I have sacrificed being a sports fan for the most part because nothing creates more bias than rooting for or against a team, if you are not objective then you have already lost half the battle. That being said I'll tell a little more about the bright side.
punter, dont ever put limits on yourself- on what you can or cannot do. It's important to look at this VERY longterm. I know that I will always do this in some capacity for the rest of my life, it is my passion. Dont think that you will get rich quick- as in a week or a month or even in a year. In three years with a lot of blood, sweat, and tears you can DEFINITELY go places. Think of your bankroll as your 401K or an investment portfolio, you dont use rent money to put on the stock market, and you dont take money out of your 401K each month to spend on bullsh**. The SAME applies to betting on sports- if you want to go this route, avoid touching your bankroll for as long as possible, once you gain consistency and apply your edge, your bankroll will grow fast. I dont know if you did the math, but 3000 wagers at a win rate of 55% with 1% on each is appx 165% a year, with ML's and the 8-10% of wagers that are over 1%, higher yield is possible. I have been told over and over again that this is not possible, that 20-25% is the best one can hope for, and I spent a good deal of time trying to figure out why it wasnt possible. A lot of things in life are best learned by experience, dont believe something just because it is said and accepted by the majority. After thousands and thousands of wagers I tell you that: The above yield is more than possible, it can actually become PROBABLE!
I think the hardest thing for me is keeping my mind in peak condition. It is a fine line between too little investigation of a game and information overload. I know some people are glued to the screen for baseball lineup information, it may work for them, I dont even pay attention. Baseball is a different sport to invest in, the changing prices dont affect your profit margin as much as spread sports like basketball and football. If Baltimore goes from +180 to +165 some of the value is gone but if BALT wins then you still get paid, just not as much. If the Ravens go from -2.5 to -3.5 and you made a big mistake by misguaging the line move and had to take them at -3.5 and they win by only 3, then the changing price turns a win into a loss (if you wanted BAL all along). With experience you will be on more of the -2.5's than -3.5's, with even more experience you will use changing spreads to your advantage by playing some middles. I dont middle a whole lot, but I hit a staggeringly high percentage of middles, this should change IMO, it's just not probable for my % to stay that high. My strategy on middles is: I like a side, I play that side, if I think the side will cross a key number or be buyable to a key # I may put a little more on that side. I ONLY play middles in which I feel the number(s) in between are relatively probable, typically 20% or more, of landing exactly. Sometimes I play a weighted middle for insurance, if something comes up after I've wagered on a side and the line has moved in my favor then I can put a little on the opposite side which reduces my risk on the side that I liked, while at the same time offers the possibility of winning BOTH. It happens, and it doesnt have to happen much for those small subsets to add quite a bit to the ledger. For example: When ORL and NY met in the NBA last winter, I had taken NY +4 for about 1%. I heard that TMAC (I think) wasnt going to play and decided to take another lead, I put an add'l 1.5% on NY at +4. Very quickly the lines went crazy, and dropped to ORL pick. I liked my position on NY +4 for about 1.5% and I had hoped that the above would happen so I timed it just right and go down on ORL pick for 1% (I might have had more on each side, cant remember) and just as it posted the line went back up to -2. ORL ended up winning by 2 or 3, that was one of the first NBA middles that I ever played and I'll never forget it. But this never would have taken place if I wasnt glued to the screen for an avg of 12 hours a day during football and basketball season. Do I get burned out? OH YEAH!! I almost always wager though. If my mind starts to feel like mush, (usually after a string of 3 or more consecutive losing days) then I move to Plan C, I use a sports page and a cell phone and just look at the spreads in the paper and wager on the lines that jump out at me. Sometimes I do this for more than a week, and I usually do well, I dont have as many wagers though, and very few totals. The more time you spend learning this market the faster you can gain an edge and apply an edge to a large number of events. I probably have more experience from the VERY intense last 3 years than some people who have wagered for decades, nothing takes the place of seeing a large number of seasons though. What the long hours have provided me is what I call "the language of numbers" in this market. On a lot of events the actual number says "public darling, 20% markup" or "bluelight special, buy in quantity", some of my wagers are based only on certain books' opinions which are apparent by the number that they hang versus the rest of the market. I am spending more and more time on 2nd half lines, if the strategy that I use now fails me in the future, I can do almost as well just by playing 2nd half lines, but I'll have to risk more on each event. Another market that I'm starting to look at is interactives or exchanges, in which you can bet on games WHILE they are being played, the possibilities seem almost limitless. I am branching out and have done surprisingly well on sporadic soccer plays and tennis. I just cant seem to be able to force myself to learn hockey b/c of all the other sports going on at the same time. After all the time that I have spent so far, I do probably 75% of my work in less than an hour each day. A lot of the games/prices jump out at me, like BALT today. But I spend probably 6-8 hours on baseball spread out during the day. I spend more time deciding HOW MUCH to wager on each event, than on WHAT sides I like. Sometimes over half of the games I have no opinion on until I look at current stats, sometimes I like every side with no research. I think it's VERY important to be passionate about this market. For me, it's not work at all, almost all my time is spent in this field. Of course, I have a life. It's just that I spend a lot of my life doing this!! I'm good looking, I love to party, make friends easily, but having a serious girlfriend is pretty much out of the question. I dont really want one though, which is good, I'm not lonely by nature, I used to spend all day hanging out w/ friends, now I just choose not to. When someone asks me to do something during 'work hours', I automatically figure out the oppurtunity cost of missing out on the ability of wagering on the upcoming games, especially 2nd halves which you cant do in advance. At first my friends thought this was strange, now some of them dont like me to leave the computer, lol. GIRLS WILL NEVER UNDERSTAND!! Think of how few girls like to watch sports!! Now add in the fact that the same sports that they hate offer the very real possibility of costing THEM money. If I meet a girl that is interested in this, I will be VERY impressed (oh, they all SAY they like sports- they think they know but they have no f***ing idea of what sports meant to me!!) This could be a huge sacrifice for some people, for me I like being single, my personality seems to attract the very possessive Leo anyways, no can do. Another sacrifice is the fact that I dont actually watch many of the actual games. Well, I watch the games on Yahoo sports, as in watching the scores by quarter and player stats. I do watch football, and as much as possible. Watching the stats pile up during the games is crucial for 2nd half wagers, it is a new language to learn- maybe just a dialect. Next year I may watch the games and the stats screen together, but only if it helps. Sometimes it's better not to see the f***ing relievers that blow the games.
I dont know if I'm more suited than a lot of people for this market, but I tend to think so. I stated my beginnings just as a point of relevance, I know some people lost a lot starting out, I was fortunate not to. I also listed some things about me that show some of the sacrifices that are necessary for me. I know people that have very compulsive personalities, and even if they win on some games just blow it all in the on-line casinos. I'm lucky to have almost zero urge to play table games where the advantage is against me. I love poker, but I only play medium stakes against real people. If you are serious about making money, then you need to focus on worrying about how you do each week, not each day. Put money aside each week (if you have a job) much like a 401K to help build your bankroll, and treat each game as an investment. If you need action, then play parlays for less than 10% of what a small investment would be. 3 team parlays have very low vig. Following other people's plays is usually suicide, especially using a consensus of several people. If you do follow someone you need to pretty much follow them exactly. I'd love to hear other people's views.
punter, dont ever put limits on yourself- on what you can or cannot do. It's important to look at this VERY longterm. I know that I will always do this in some capacity for the rest of my life, it is my passion. Dont think that you will get rich quick- as in a week or a month or even in a year. In three years with a lot of blood, sweat, and tears you can DEFINITELY go places. Think of your bankroll as your 401K or an investment portfolio, you dont use rent money to put on the stock market, and you dont take money out of your 401K each month to spend on bullsh**. The SAME applies to betting on sports- if you want to go this route, avoid touching your bankroll for as long as possible, once you gain consistency and apply your edge, your bankroll will grow fast. I dont know if you did the math, but 3000 wagers at a win rate of 55% with 1% on each is appx 165% a year, with ML's and the 8-10% of wagers that are over 1%, higher yield is possible. I have been told over and over again that this is not possible, that 20-25% is the best one can hope for, and I spent a good deal of time trying to figure out why it wasnt possible. A lot of things in life are best learned by experience, dont believe something just because it is said and accepted by the majority. After thousands and thousands of wagers I tell you that: The above yield is more than possible, it can actually become PROBABLE!
I think the hardest thing for me is keeping my mind in peak condition. It is a fine line between too little investigation of a game and information overload. I know some people are glued to the screen for baseball lineup information, it may work for them, I dont even pay attention. Baseball is a different sport to invest in, the changing prices dont affect your profit margin as much as spread sports like basketball and football. If Baltimore goes from +180 to +165 some of the value is gone but if BALT wins then you still get paid, just not as much. If the Ravens go from -2.5 to -3.5 and you made a big mistake by misguaging the line move and had to take them at -3.5 and they win by only 3, then the changing price turns a win into a loss (if you wanted BAL all along). With experience you will be on more of the -2.5's than -3.5's, with even more experience you will use changing spreads to your advantage by playing some middles. I dont middle a whole lot, but I hit a staggeringly high percentage of middles, this should change IMO, it's just not probable for my % to stay that high. My strategy on middles is: I like a side, I play that side, if I think the side will cross a key number or be buyable to a key # I may put a little more on that side. I ONLY play middles in which I feel the number(s) in between are relatively probable, typically 20% or more, of landing exactly. Sometimes I play a weighted middle for insurance, if something comes up after I've wagered on a side and the line has moved in my favor then I can put a little on the opposite side which reduces my risk on the side that I liked, while at the same time offers the possibility of winning BOTH. It happens, and it doesnt have to happen much for those small subsets to add quite a bit to the ledger. For example: When ORL and NY met in the NBA last winter, I had taken NY +4 for about 1%. I heard that TMAC (I think) wasnt going to play and decided to take another lead, I put an add'l 1.5% on NY at +4. Very quickly the lines went crazy, and dropped to ORL pick. I liked my position on NY +4 for about 1.5% and I had hoped that the above would happen so I timed it just right and go down on ORL pick for 1% (I might have had more on each side, cant remember) and just as it posted the line went back up to -2. ORL ended up winning by 2 or 3, that was one of the first NBA middles that I ever played and I'll never forget it. But this never would have taken place if I wasnt glued to the screen for an avg of 12 hours a day during football and basketball season. Do I get burned out? OH YEAH!! I almost always wager though. If my mind starts to feel like mush, (usually after a string of 3 or more consecutive losing days) then I move to Plan C, I use a sports page and a cell phone and just look at the spreads in the paper and wager on the lines that jump out at me. Sometimes I do this for more than a week, and I usually do well, I dont have as many wagers though, and very few totals. The more time you spend learning this market the faster you can gain an edge and apply an edge to a large number of events. I probably have more experience from the VERY intense last 3 years than some people who have wagered for decades, nothing takes the place of seeing a large number of seasons though. What the long hours have provided me is what I call "the language of numbers" in this market. On a lot of events the actual number says "public darling, 20% markup" or "bluelight special, buy in quantity", some of my wagers are based only on certain books' opinions which are apparent by the number that they hang versus the rest of the market. I am spending more and more time on 2nd half lines, if the strategy that I use now fails me in the future, I can do almost as well just by playing 2nd half lines, but I'll have to risk more on each event. Another market that I'm starting to look at is interactives or exchanges, in which you can bet on games WHILE they are being played, the possibilities seem almost limitless. I am branching out and have done surprisingly well on sporadic soccer plays and tennis. I just cant seem to be able to force myself to learn hockey b/c of all the other sports going on at the same time. After all the time that I have spent so far, I do probably 75% of my work in less than an hour each day. A lot of the games/prices jump out at me, like BALT today. But I spend probably 6-8 hours on baseball spread out during the day. I spend more time deciding HOW MUCH to wager on each event, than on WHAT sides I like. Sometimes over half of the games I have no opinion on until I look at current stats, sometimes I like every side with no research. I think it's VERY important to be passionate about this market. For me, it's not work at all, almost all my time is spent in this field. Of course, I have a life. It's just that I spend a lot of my life doing this!! I'm good looking, I love to party, make friends easily, but having a serious girlfriend is pretty much out of the question. I dont really want one though, which is good, I'm not lonely by nature, I used to spend all day hanging out w/ friends, now I just choose not to. When someone asks me to do something during 'work hours', I automatically figure out the oppurtunity cost of missing out on the ability of wagering on the upcoming games, especially 2nd halves which you cant do in advance. At first my friends thought this was strange, now some of them dont like me to leave the computer, lol. GIRLS WILL NEVER UNDERSTAND!! Think of how few girls like to watch sports!! Now add in the fact that the same sports that they hate offer the very real possibility of costing THEM money. If I meet a girl that is interested in this, I will be VERY impressed (oh, they all SAY they like sports- they think they know but they have no f***ing idea of what sports meant to me!!) This could be a huge sacrifice for some people, for me I like being single, my personality seems to attract the very possessive Leo anyways, no can do. Another sacrifice is the fact that I dont actually watch many of the actual games. Well, I watch the games on Yahoo sports, as in watching the scores by quarter and player stats. I do watch football, and as much as possible. Watching the stats pile up during the games is crucial for 2nd half wagers, it is a new language to learn- maybe just a dialect. Next year I may watch the games and the stats screen together, but only if it helps. Sometimes it's better not to see the f***ing relievers that blow the games.
I dont know if I'm more suited than a lot of people for this market, but I tend to think so. I stated my beginnings just as a point of relevance, I know some people lost a lot starting out, I was fortunate not to. I also listed some things about me that show some of the sacrifices that are necessary for me. I know people that have very compulsive personalities, and even if they win on some games just blow it all in the on-line casinos. I'm lucky to have almost zero urge to play table games where the advantage is against me. I love poker, but I only play medium stakes against real people. If you are serious about making money, then you need to focus on worrying about how you do each week, not each day. Put money aside each week (if you have a job) much like a 401K to help build your bankroll, and treat each game as an investment. If you need action, then play parlays for less than 10% of what a small investment would be. 3 team parlays have very low vig. Following other people's plays is usually suicide, especially using a consensus of several people. If you do follow someone you need to pretty much follow them exactly. I'd love to hear other people's views.
three things that will help newbies:
1. MONEY MANAGEMENT (1% on each game, you MAY get away with 2%)
2. MONEY MANAGEMENT (dont bet more when you are losing, dont bet more when you are winning, learn to bet according to the value that is presented you)
3. dont worry about today's results, concern yourself with weekly and monthly performance
4. bet on games that you feel you have an advantage, no matter how slight (over 53% probability of winning). It takes time and experience to gain an edge over a large number of weekly games. Going small on numerous games shows if you have an edge, the larger the sample size the more accurate it is. If your wagers SUCK and lose money, then do the opposite. What went wrong? What stats were you placing emphasis on? More often than not the losing wagers have a high number of ROAD FAVORITES. If you dont know or cant figure out what you were looking at for each game, then you are not INVESTING you are GAMBLING.
YOU WILL LOSE 10 WAGERS in a row at some point. I will probably lose 20 in a row at some point. I dont know or care about how many in a row I have won, I have made over 20% in one day several times and IMO profit margin is far more important than wins to losses.
DeNiro, you do have a point. But when you have positive vig what I do makes sense. In other words I dont look at it as laying -110. I look at it as recouping +102.6 on the majority of my wagers. Essentially I have been booking the book's action. I should also point out that I dont flat bet. IMO some investments offer more value than others, I try to wager more on lines that I feel are off more. If it's marginal then I wager a lot smaller amounts. If the marginal wagers lost money I would cut them, if they have a higher ROI then I raise them. The key is to have a reason for wagers, and to keep track of not only the wagers but the reasoning behind them.
1. MONEY MANAGEMENT (1% on each game, you MAY get away with 2%)
2. MONEY MANAGEMENT (dont bet more when you are losing, dont bet more when you are winning, learn to bet according to the value that is presented you)
3. dont worry about today's results, concern yourself with weekly and monthly performance
4. bet on games that you feel you have an advantage, no matter how slight (over 53% probability of winning). It takes time and experience to gain an edge over a large number of weekly games. Going small on numerous games shows if you have an edge, the larger the sample size the more accurate it is. If your wagers SUCK and lose money, then do the opposite. What went wrong? What stats were you placing emphasis on? More often than not the losing wagers have a high number of ROAD FAVORITES. If you dont know or cant figure out what you were looking at for each game, then you are not INVESTING you are GAMBLING.
YOU WILL LOSE 10 WAGERS in a row at some point. I will probably lose 20 in a row at some point. I dont know or care about how many in a row I have won, I have made over 20% in one day several times and IMO profit margin is far more important than wins to losses.
DeNiro, you do have a point. But when you have positive vig what I do makes sense. In other words I dont look at it as laying -110. I look at it as recouping +102.6 on the majority of my wagers. Essentially I have been booking the book's action. I should also point out that I dont flat bet. IMO some investments offer more value than others, I try to wager more on lines that I feel are off more. If it's marginal then I wager a lot smaller amounts. If the marginal wagers lost money I would cut them, if they have a higher ROI then I raise them. The key is to have a reason for wagers, and to keep track of not only the wagers but the reasoning behind them.
punter, you are right. A lot of this is a little complicated for the newbies forum. But I would have killed to have access to a lot of the info that I just posted when I was starting out. I spent countless hours combing the net reading other people's views trying to find out an optimum approach. 99% of what I read was garbage. Most people have the attitude of "I am the best, every one else blows, and always will. What I know is worth millions, dont think I will just give it away." I had to figure out for myself the vast majority of what I believe now. And I dont know everything, not even close. No one does, and as in most things in life you are either moving forward or backward. Life and lines are constantly changing. One of the main reasons that I post is to get my ideas out there so that other's can critique and detract from my opinions, it's a great way to see what I may be missing. And of course what goes around comes around.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by ATX:
... I would have killed to have access to a lot of the info that I just posted when I was starting out...<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
ATX, you have been very generous with information, both here and in other posts that I have seen. I thank you Sir.
I have always been interested in sports betting but due to career and family committments I never seemed to have any time to really look into it. Not until about a year ago. Since then I have been lurking around the boards to try to learn whatever I can. ( just found the RX a few months ago. ) You are so right ATX, the noise to signal ratio on most boards is very high so it takes patience to filter out useful info.
I agree with dimesplayersonly that for most people sportsbetting offers an enjoyable recreation, but it would become a trail of tears for most if they were to take it to the next level.
Nonetheless, as in music and sports, a small percentage of people are able to take it to the next level and consistently thrive. I am happy for your success ATX and very aware of the rarified company you are in.
At this point I don't know if I have what it takes to step beyond recreational wagering but I am investigating it. For the first time in several decades I have a few free hours a day available. My education and career were in engineering and I have been a successful albeit small investor so I am familiar with many of the math and business concepts that you have mentioned. I also have been brushing up on my programming skills as I can forsee some useful tools to help expedite the time-consuming process of handicapping.
Thanks again ATX for sharing all the great info and I look forward to seeing you around the boards.
good luck,
-punter puppy
... I would have killed to have access to a lot of the info that I just posted when I was starting out...<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
ATX, you have been very generous with information, both here and in other posts that I have seen. I thank you Sir.
I have always been interested in sports betting but due to career and family committments I never seemed to have any time to really look into it. Not until about a year ago. Since then I have been lurking around the boards to try to learn whatever I can. ( just found the RX a few months ago. ) You are so right ATX, the noise to signal ratio on most boards is very high so it takes patience to filter out useful info.
I agree with dimesplayersonly that for most people sportsbetting offers an enjoyable recreation, but it would become a trail of tears for most if they were to take it to the next level.
Nonetheless, as in music and sports, a small percentage of people are able to take it to the next level and consistently thrive. I am happy for your success ATX and very aware of the rarified company you are in.
At this point I don't know if I have what it takes to step beyond recreational wagering but I am investigating it. For the first time in several decades I have a few free hours a day available. My education and career were in engineering and I have been a successful albeit small investor so I am familiar with many of the math and business concepts that you have mentioned. I also have been brushing up on my programming skills as I can forsee some useful tools to help expedite the time-consuming process of handicapping.
Thanks again ATX for sharing all the great info and I look forward to seeing you around the boards.
good luck,
-punter puppy
Dime,
Very profound and in most cases very true. As has been said many times, the lines are set to get action from both sides and just to hopefully make $ from vig and get basically an equal amount of winning and losing $. That is why it is truly gambling and not an exact science you can master...much like golf where the greatest current player(Tiger) loses to a guy who is playing in his first major(Ben..uh who???). When Greg Norman blew a 7 shoot lead in the final round of the Masters and was puting balls in the water I said to myself, "My God, I can do that! and he is a professional who has spent his whole life on this damn game and look at him."
I then realized I should always just play golf with the attitude that I am going to hit bad shots and I will never master it. Much like no matter how much you study and cap you will take a bad beat(at times). So don't bet everything on one game and don't bet with scared money. Make it a hobby and either a source of extra income but not money you need to live on.
Very profound and in most cases very true. As has been said many times, the lines are set to get action from both sides and just to hopefully make $ from vig and get basically an equal amount of winning and losing $. That is why it is truly gambling and not an exact science you can master...much like golf where the greatest current player(Tiger) loses to a guy who is playing in his first major(Ben..uh who???). When Greg Norman blew a 7 shoot lead in the final round of the Masters and was puting balls in the water I said to myself, "My God, I can do that! and he is a professional who has spent his whole life on this damn game and look at him."
dimeplayersonly, I agree with you 100%. I was an independant bookmaker in London for 16 years, and in that time saw many punters with systems, databanks, staking plans, you name it.
None of these worked, although I was amazed how long some of them ran for, the longest being about 2 years. These punters were the worst hit when things started going wrong as they were convinced by then that things would turn around.
There was several I knew who made a living from gambling, but on getting to know them found that they made their money wheeling & dealing, putting on large bets for lazy clients taking some of the price off the top. Betting something at the best price & touting it was another. One of them had an uncle who was the biggest commission agent in London and always knew where the big money was going. He made a living by taking the odds in the morning and laying them back at shorter odds later.
All of the above was mainly horseracing. As for sports betting I never met anyone who made a living from it but knew plenty who won consistantly on the side. The one thing they had in common was that they knew there sport inside out and never bet on anything else.
Before you ask, there is a big difference between working and winning on the side and gambling for a living.
None of these worked, although I was amazed how long some of them ran for, the longest being about 2 years. These punters were the worst hit when things started going wrong as they were convinced by then that things would turn around.
There was several I knew who made a living from gambling, but on getting to know them found that they made their money wheeling & dealing, putting on large bets for lazy clients taking some of the price off the top. Betting something at the best price & touting it was another. One of them had an uncle who was the biggest commission agent in London and always knew where the big money was going. He made a living by taking the odds in the morning and laying them back at shorter odds later.
All of the above was mainly horseracing. As for sports betting I never met anyone who made a living from it but knew plenty who won consistantly on the side. The one thing they had in common was that they knew there sport inside out and never bet on anything else.
Before you ask, there is a big difference between working and winning on the side and gambling for a living.
I posted the following yesterday in the Offshore forum, but think that it might be better suited to this thread.
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It appears that with the growing competition amongst locals and offshore markets, the juice is steadily shrinking from 2 dimes to 1 dime to 5 cent lines, from -110 to -107 to -105, etc. I wonder what this means with respect to the evolving accuracy of bookmakers / sportsbettors, if any. Are bookmakers' lines getting sharper, or are the bettors becoming smarter and more informed, or is it neither or both? With the advent of the internet, I would assume it is much easier than before to collect numerous data, but I also surmise the wealth of available data increases the knowledge level of the general betting population, thereby increasing competition. Since you are betting against the "average bettor" in sports wagering, the growth of intelligence level of such average bettor should be detrimental to the sharps of ages past, unless those sharps upgrade their methodologies somehow to stay above the rest.
So, could someone who has been using a particular handicapping formula 10-20 years ago at a profit still make similar profits today using the same formula? Is the general population becoming sharper to the extent that eventually, there will be little or no advantage left for the sharps? Or do you believe that there will always be enough squares, blokes and temperamental bettors for the advantage players to rake in the profits?
One similar illustration of the detrimental increase in the intelligence level of the general populace would be Blackjack which, as you may know, has been becoming less and less appealing recently on land and online. As for land-based blackjack, as the general population became more aware of the various methods of card counting, the casinos have caught on and employed methods to discourage or preclude counting, either via the 5:6 BJ payoff rule, elimination of single-deck games, or the automatic shuffler. On-line blackjack is suffering the same fate: as more people are catching on to the profitability of bonus hunting, casinos are taking measures to either increase wager requirements or eliminate blackjack from wagering altogether. In both cases, as more people become wiser to a given advantage, the overall profitability of a venture decreases.
Do you see a similar trend in sports betting, or is such apprehension a mere delusion of fatalistic musing?
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Personally, I believe that the profitability of betting on sides and totals might be diminishing because they are the most common bets amongst the masses. As ATX mentioned previously, one way to maintain a high level of advantage for sharp bettors is to branch out to other, more esoteric areas, including interactives, half/quarter bets, unpopular sports and so on. While many experts and touts alike can claim to have their own patented system of capping sides and totals, and certainly there is a wealth of statistics to assist one in that regard, it seems that comparatively few can claim the same with respect to these other areas (I haven't seen anyone advertise himself as a half/qr capping expert, for example). As the masses gradually wise up to the advantages inherent in sportsbetting, I think it's pivotal for the elites to either improve their handicapping system or move on to other, less crowded areas.
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It appears that with the growing competition amongst locals and offshore markets, the juice is steadily shrinking from 2 dimes to 1 dime to 5 cent lines, from -110 to -107 to -105, etc. I wonder what this means with respect to the evolving accuracy of bookmakers / sportsbettors, if any. Are bookmakers' lines getting sharper, or are the bettors becoming smarter and more informed, or is it neither or both? With the advent of the internet, I would assume it is much easier than before to collect numerous data, but I also surmise the wealth of available data increases the knowledge level of the general betting population, thereby increasing competition. Since you are betting against the "average bettor" in sports wagering, the growth of intelligence level of such average bettor should be detrimental to the sharps of ages past, unless those sharps upgrade their methodologies somehow to stay above the rest.
So, could someone who has been using a particular handicapping formula 10-20 years ago at a profit still make similar profits today using the same formula? Is the general population becoming sharper to the extent that eventually, there will be little or no advantage left for the sharps? Or do you believe that there will always be enough squares, blokes and temperamental bettors for the advantage players to rake in the profits?
One similar illustration of the detrimental increase in the intelligence level of the general populace would be Blackjack which, as you may know, has been becoming less and less appealing recently on land and online. As for land-based blackjack, as the general population became more aware of the various methods of card counting, the casinos have caught on and employed methods to discourage or preclude counting, either via the 5:6 BJ payoff rule, elimination of single-deck games, or the automatic shuffler. On-line blackjack is suffering the same fate: as more people are catching on to the profitability of bonus hunting, casinos are taking measures to either increase wager requirements or eliminate blackjack from wagering altogether. In both cases, as more people become wiser to a given advantage, the overall profitability of a venture decreases.
Do you see a similar trend in sports betting, or is such apprehension a mere delusion of fatalistic musing?
-----------------
Personally, I believe that the profitability of betting on sides and totals might be diminishing because they are the most common bets amongst the masses. As ATX mentioned previously, one way to maintain a high level of advantage for sharp bettors is to branch out to other, more esoteric areas, including interactives, half/quarter bets, unpopular sports and so on. While many experts and touts alike can claim to have their own patented system of capping sides and totals, and certainly there is a wealth of statistics to assist one in that regard, it seems that comparatively few can claim the same with respect to these other areas (I haven't seen anyone advertise himself as a half/qr capping expert, for example). As the masses gradually wise up to the advantages inherent in sportsbetting, I think it's pivotal for the elites to either improve their handicapping system or move on to other, less crowded areas.
nepenthe...excellent post
Sure the internet has made information more accessible for the average bettor. The problem is, the average bettor doesn't know how to use that information. People are still following trends like "Atlanta is 10-0 on odd number Sundays in October" which have no grounds in reality. Most bettors have no idea how to determine statistical significance, let allow "data mine" or pull information out of mounds of statistics. So even though more information is out there, it doesn't mean anyone has gotten any "smarter".
Of course any given system is eventually going to fade out as people catch on to it. The "sharp" bettor is always constantly monitoring his systems and adapting them to stay one step ahead of everyone else.
I see the reduction in juice at sportsbooks due to the internet as being similar to what Wal-mart has done with retailing. As offshore bookmaking attracts more customers (and it has been exploding due to the internet), you have more and more action, leading to more profits. Just like Wal-mart can afford to keep the lowest prices due to their tremendous sales volumes, internet bookmaking allows you to reduce your profit per bet because you are doing so much more volume.
Also, computer technology has allowed these offshores to automate everything, cutting down on overhead. A book like Pinnacle just basically has to keep a server running 24/7 to make money. Eliminating all those phone reps saves a ton of money, which can be passed off as lower juice to the customer. Hell, with Don Best service, you don't even need a legitimate linesmaker any more (see all the clone books around right now).
Sure, moving into unpopular sports and thinks like betting exchanges is going to help keep an individual's betting profits higher, as it always has. But I don't think that beating the "normal" lines is going to be significantly more difficult thatn it has in the past (not that it was ever easy anyhow).
Sure the internet has made information more accessible for the average bettor. The problem is, the average bettor doesn't know how to use that information. People are still following trends like "Atlanta is 10-0 on odd number Sundays in October" which have no grounds in reality. Most bettors have no idea how to determine statistical significance, let allow "data mine" or pull information out of mounds of statistics. So even though more information is out there, it doesn't mean anyone has gotten any "smarter".
Of course any given system is eventually going to fade out as people catch on to it. The "sharp" bettor is always constantly monitoring his systems and adapting them to stay one step ahead of everyone else.
I see the reduction in juice at sportsbooks due to the internet as being similar to what Wal-mart has done with retailing. As offshore bookmaking attracts more customers (and it has been exploding due to the internet), you have more and more action, leading to more profits. Just like Wal-mart can afford to keep the lowest prices due to their tremendous sales volumes, internet bookmaking allows you to reduce your profit per bet because you are doing so much more volume.
Also, computer technology has allowed these offshores to automate everything, cutting down on overhead. A book like Pinnacle just basically has to keep a server running 24/7 to make money. Eliminating all those phone reps saves a ton of money, which can be passed off as lower juice to the customer. Hell, with Don Best service, you don't even need a legitimate linesmaker any more (see all the clone books around right now).
Sure, moving into unpopular sports and thinks like betting exchanges is going to help keep an individual's betting profits higher, as it always has. But I don't think that beating the "normal" lines is going to be significantly more difficult thatn it has in the past (not that it was ever easy anyhow).
Drunkguy, you worded it well. A lot of what you posted are my thoughts exactly. I feel that the reduced vig is to attract volume from competitiors, this is how any other market thrives.
The various angles that I use are based on correlations, this is very much different than trends. A trend (my def.) is a random occurrence such as you will find in numerous football periodicals, and they usually read something like Dallas is 12-1 after a division win preceding a Monday night game against a non-division opponent (I just made this up). You can use statistics to prove just about anything, and most trends like this are simply filling data into a small sample size to sell a magazine. If anything, I usually assume that if something goes 11-1 then it is more likely that the opposite will start to occur and the value is on the other side.
But if you can correlate or isolate WHY something keeps occurring, and why there is recurring value over long periods, then that is a different story. Most of the angles that I have stocked have recurring value because the public consistently BETS THE OTHER SIDE. In many instances the oddsmaker takes this into account so the value is almost always there. Some scores at halftime are very key numbers, and they give value to 2nd halves. One of the reasons is these key numbers (as I call them) are representative to the flow of the game, how the game is being played, and a lot of the time the public naturally assumes that since a low number of points were scored in the first half and these teams USUALLY score a lot more for the game, that in the 2nd half doubling up on the over is the way to go since the two teams dont even have to hit the full game over. A lot of the same applies to sides. This is just one example.
I also think that people that are successful have an ever-changing strategy. Baseball is a great sport to learn handicapping from. You MUST switch gears every day. One day I'm on one team, the next I may find double the value against them. I actually look at less for a baseball game than I do for other sports since I dont really try to figure out who wins a baseball game, in most cases, while for football and baseball I usually try to determine who wins by how much and what percentage of the time. And try to guess who guards who, what plays will be called, who is injured, field conditions, which coach is the bigger idiot, etc. But as far as a lot of the angles that I use, the value will be there for a while because the public just doesnt care to hear about value. It's actually funny, I'll tell someone standing next to me at a sportsbar to take the under in the 2nd half and they think I'm nuts, and this is after they know what I do and heard me call in my wager. But for some reason they usually think that it would take an act of God for the two teams not to hit the full game over, much less the 2nd half over. And later they think it was a bad beat, and probably triple up next time.
There are angles that I've used in the past that I've discarded, and angles that I now go opposite. If you practice sound money management you will take notice when something is losing value and come up with a solution. I look at a lot of things as subsets, and I try to make sure that each one shows profit. In other words there are pitchers and even teams that I ride streaks on (I usually go against teams that have won several in a row) and once I have wagered and won several in a row on or against that pitcher or team I start wagering smaller amounts on them since usually the value starts to diminish and I want to make sure that I come out ahead on as many subsets as possible. Keep in mind that almost none of this is done blindly, I still must find value in a line in order to wager a significant amount otherwise it is just a nominal wager. A lot of this is done subconsciously, and why I feel the trained human mind is far more powerful than a computer program. A lot of things I dont even realize that I take into account when handicapping a game, unless I start writing like this. But that's just me, I guess.
The various angles that I use are based on correlations, this is very much different than trends. A trend (my def.) is a random occurrence such as you will find in numerous football periodicals, and they usually read something like Dallas is 12-1 after a division win preceding a Monday night game against a non-division opponent (I just made this up). You can use statistics to prove just about anything, and most trends like this are simply filling data into a small sample size to sell a magazine. If anything, I usually assume that if something goes 11-1 then it is more likely that the opposite will start to occur and the value is on the other side.
But if you can correlate or isolate WHY something keeps occurring, and why there is recurring value over long periods, then that is a different story. Most of the angles that I have stocked have recurring value because the public consistently BETS THE OTHER SIDE. In many instances the oddsmaker takes this into account so the value is almost always there. Some scores at halftime are very key numbers, and they give value to 2nd halves. One of the reasons is these key numbers (as I call them) are representative to the flow of the game, how the game is being played, and a lot of the time the public naturally assumes that since a low number of points were scored in the first half and these teams USUALLY score a lot more for the game, that in the 2nd half doubling up on the over is the way to go since the two teams dont even have to hit the full game over. A lot of the same applies to sides. This is just one example.
I also think that people that are successful have an ever-changing strategy. Baseball is a great sport to learn handicapping from. You MUST switch gears every day. One day I'm on one team, the next I may find double the value against them. I actually look at less for a baseball game than I do for other sports since I dont really try to figure out who wins a baseball game, in most cases, while for football and baseball I usually try to determine who wins by how much and what percentage of the time. And try to guess who guards who, what plays will be called, who is injured, field conditions, which coach is the bigger idiot, etc. But as far as a lot of the angles that I use, the value will be there for a while because the public just doesnt care to hear about value. It's actually funny, I'll tell someone standing next to me at a sportsbar to take the under in the 2nd half and they think I'm nuts, and this is after they know what I do and heard me call in my wager. But for some reason they usually think that it would take an act of God for the two teams not to hit the full game over, much less the 2nd half over. And later they think it was a bad beat, and probably triple up next time.
There are angles that I've used in the past that I've discarded, and angles that I now go opposite. If you practice sound money management you will take notice when something is losing value and come up with a solution. I look at a lot of things as subsets, and I try to make sure that each one shows profit. In other words there are pitchers and even teams that I ride streaks on (I usually go against teams that have won several in a row) and once I have wagered and won several in a row on or against that pitcher or team I start wagering smaller amounts on them since usually the value starts to diminish and I want to make sure that I come out ahead on as many subsets as possible. Keep in mind that almost none of this is done blindly, I still must find value in a line in order to wager a significant amount otherwise it is just a nominal wager. A lot of this is done subconsciously, and why I feel the trained human mind is far more powerful than a computer program. A lot of things I dont even realize that I take into account when handicapping a game, unless I start writing like this. But that's just me, I guess.
