Hache,
I have just been looking at it since I signed up for the SO contest. It seems that when the public is on something greater than 85% it has been hitting with a high rate.
I think it was here a while back there was a guy tracking this for football and basketball(I don't remember if it was pros or college). I think his magic number was >88%.
I have just been looking at it since I signed up for the SO contest. It seems that when the public is on something greater than 85% it has been hitting with a high rate.
I think it was here a while back there was a guy tracking this for football and basketball(I don't remember if it was pros or college). I think his magic number was >88%.
kind of a pain in the ass tracking it to be honest. i'm working now on finding playable angles in cfb for teams who have first year head coaches, separating bcs teams from non bcs teams, teams who fired their coach compared to teams whose coaches left after a successful season, new coaches vs coaches with prior head coaching experience, seems like no matter how you break it down everything is frustratingly 50-50. best one i've found so far is that non bcs teams with a first year head coach playing as road dogs vs a bcs team (excluding notre dame) are 16-28-1 ATS the past four years. if you exclude conference usa, the angle is
10-23...
10-23...
Kind of hard to use this with MLB because of the moneylines and how complicated that could get but I do have one situation with public pct's that I am a firm believer in.
After a few months of play till the end of the year, I feel that it is +ev to fade majority public pcts in the NBA if the public majority likes the UNDERDOG.
I used that info quite a bit this past year in the NBA and did quite well with it. I really don't like betting many NBA favorites but it got me off a lot of NBA dogs.
Others have told me this seems to be a good idea with MLB dogs also, who knows?
Basically if the public likes the dog then don't play them. Maybe that is a starting point to what you are looking at.
Let me add I obviously don't think it's as simple as you can just do something blindly and expect to win but I do think stuff like this when used hand in hand with other things can help improves ones capping.
After a few months of play till the end of the year, I feel that it is +ev to fade majority public pcts in the NBA if the public majority likes the UNDERDOG.
I used that info quite a bit this past year in the NBA and did quite well with it. I really don't like betting many NBA favorites but it got me off a lot of NBA dogs.
Others have told me this seems to be a good idea with MLB dogs also, who knows?
Basically if the public likes the dog then don't play them. Maybe that is a starting point to what you are looking at.
Let me add I obviously don't think it's as simple as you can just do something blindly and expect to win but I do think stuff like this when used hand in hand with other things can help improves ones capping.
I don't pay attention to them in bases because all your team has to do is win. Sometimes books do hang a wrong number too, look at all the respect the Nationals get. I never like to be on public dogs in the other sports, so this can be very useful here.
Rick, what do you base the Public Dogs on?
Rick, what do you base the Public Dogs on?
another positive i got during cbb was to fade the public in national tv games. the research i did was based on short term results, as when i tried doing the research the task was simply too daunting to go back, find the televised games, and then check the results ATS. but from the time that i was tracking this -- about a 5 or 6 week span -- the public did not do well. the best angle seemed to be where the heaviest action was -- the more total bets placed, and the higher the percentage, were the good ones to fade in tv games.
if i was in the mood i would break each of the major sports down -- nba, cbb, and cfb (excluding nfl because most games are regionally televised, and mlb because i'm not sure how much the run line compares to the spread in the other sports) -- and determine A) which games were televised to a national audience. after that i would break the categories down to A) number of bets placed and where it ranked with the other games (was it the most heavily bet game? or about in line with all the others) B) the percentage of the bets on a particular side C) line movement....
after gathering all that, i would then break the results down....how did teams with 60-69% of the bets fare when the line moved with and against the public? how did teams fare when the closing number was the same as the opening number? what about the games with the highest total number of bets -- say one of the 3 most heavily bet games of the day -- fare when 80-89% was on a side and the line never moved? it would be nice to have 5 years -- 10 would be even better, as nationally televised games have gone up significantly over the past decade with the growth of tv and every team playing at least 12 games a year.
if someone wants to collaberate on something like this i'd be willing to help...still over 6 weeks from kickoff and i'm always trying to find good angles
if i was in the mood i would break each of the major sports down -- nba, cbb, and cfb (excluding nfl because most games are regionally televised, and mlb because i'm not sure how much the run line compares to the spread in the other sports) -- and determine A) which games were televised to a national audience. after that i would break the categories down to A) number of bets placed and where it ranked with the other games (was it the most heavily bet game? or about in line with all the others) B) the percentage of the bets on a particular side C) line movement....
after gathering all that, i would then break the results down....how did teams with 60-69% of the bets fare when the line moved with and against the public? how did teams fare when the closing number was the same as the opening number? what about the games with the highest total number of bets -- say one of the 3 most heavily bet games of the day -- fare when 80-89% was on a side and the line never moved? it would be nice to have 5 years -- 10 would be even better, as nationally televised games have gone up significantly over the past decade with the growth of tv and every team playing at least 12 games a year.
if someone wants to collaberate on something like this i'd be willing to help...still over 6 weeks from kickoff and i'm always trying to find good angles
