Special Plays....Trial system based on spreads

[JimmyJet]

Have been tracking "Special Plays" since Feb 7th. Record is 31-24-2. What is a Special Play: a team who has covered their last game's spread by 10 or more points playing against a team that failed to cover the spread by 10 or more points in their last game. The theory is that there may be value in playing these teams because it may take Vegas a couple games to adjust the lines on these teams that have exceeded the expectaions of the linesmakers. So we are counting on receiving value in their very next game....my belief is that the theory may be more valid earlier in the season but we will have to wait until next year to test that..

Special Plays for Friday are:

Delaware -2 1/2

Marist +3 1/2

Samford -9

Not suggesting you play these games unless your handicapping confirms they are playable...best of luck....JJ

*Previously posted by invitation on MJ's thread...from now on posted here.

 

[tool21]

I've definitely study part of this. It seemed to me that a single team that beat/lost the spread by 20 covers/doesn't cover the next game. Always opposite if what the team did. It would be an 'outlier' to the books but they have no choice but to incorporate that previous outlier into their lines.. This would relate to what you're doing. I'm watching. Good luck!

 

[JimmyJet]

Special Plays went 1-2 on Friday to bring the record since FEB 7th to 31-26-2. The Special Plays for Saturday are:

Georgia

Stanford

California

South Florida

Good luck and remember this is a study to determine if their is value.....JJ

 

[JimmyJet]

Special Plays went 1-3 on Saturday so record now stands at 32-29-2. This is a trial system so please accept the results as an insight to the future value of this system and theory....may turn out to be none....thanks JJ

 

[JimmyJet]

Vanderbilt was only Special Play today and covered...record now 33-29-2. Good Luck...JJ

 

[JimmyJet]

Record 33-29-2....no Special Plays for Monday. Good Luck all...JJ

 

[JimmyJet]

Record 33-29-2..no Special plays for Tuesday...good luck all...JJ

 

[HarleyRoadKing]

Nice to see you started a thread just for this... BOL Jimmy...