Special Play for Sunday -- (YTD 28-20)

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Dogfather
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After three losing plays in a row, I posted two Special Plays Friday which split, winning playing Syracuse for the first half of their game against West Virginia which would have covered for the full game anyway but losing my play on the Milwaukee Bucks, who were covering the entire game until the last 5 minutes of the fourth quarter. I have one Special Play today looking to get back on track, although 28 -20 is not bad at almost 60% winners.

This is going to be a strange play because I'm playing a team without a line. It goes at 10 AM Pacific and 1 PM Eastern, which is why I need to post it now because I may not be up and acting awake in time to put this together by then.

Anyone watching todays Utah at Miami game should have been thinking the same thing I was during the three overtime periods. We were watching a Miami team down by 7 points with just 55 seconds left in regulation, then watching Miami fall behind by 8 points in the first Overtime before coming all the way back to force a second OT, which stayed close and finished tied going into a third OT which Miami won by 11 points. Thru all of this, Wade tied his career high in scoring with 50 points, set new bests in minutes (52 1/2 ), field goals made (19) and attempted (39), plus passed Alonzo Mourning to become Miami’s all-time points leader. You could see he was on a "high" as were the other players and the fans. It was a very emotional game, the kind that takes a lot out of you.

So, we now have a very tried Miami team flying to Phildelphia to play the 76ers in an early game Sunday. Look for a tired flat effort from the Heat with Philly winning easily. But, hold on, I have one problem with this play. There isn't a line on the game yet and I don't expect to see one until Sunday morning, except I'm not going to be awake to see it when it first comes out. One reason for the delay in posting a line may be because Ward hurt his knee, although he stayed in the game and played as if nothing was wrong with his knee. So, this is what we have. Miami, which should be getting points at Philly, although I don't know how many. I'm still going to play Philly, no matter what the line is, figuring the more Philly has to lay, the greater chance that maybe Ward won't be 100%. So, here it is, a tired Miami playing the day after a three Overtime game, which they came back to win after being behind most of the game. I really like this situation and you might want follow me and ...............................

PLAY PHILLY NO MATTER WHAT THE LINE IS.
 

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I agree. I posted something similar earlier today when the Heat/Jazz game was still in progress. I'll only play Philly up to -5 though. I don't want to lay any chalk bigger than that.

GL
 

Dogfather
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LookingForHotPick asked
is that a lock? philly?

A lock? What's a lock. I don't use that term in anything I post because there is no such thing as a lock. A lock means the play has a 100% chance of winning. No play is a sure winner. My plays are based on what I write and its for you to decide if you agree with my reasoning. Of course I would never post a play I didn't think has an excellent chance of winning, which is why I can go upward of a week without seeing any play I feel you should follow me on.
 

Dogfather
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Opening Line

I just saw this on the scoreline page.

<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#e0e0e0"><td class="ltr">NBA</td><td class="ltr">875</td><td class="ltr">01:05 ET</td><td>
</td><td class="ltr">Miami at Philadelphia</td><td class="ltr">Philadelphia -3.5</td><td class="ltr">196</td></tr></tbody></table>
They are using Philly -3.5 although there still is not a line to play at sportsbook.com nor bookmaker, the two offshores I use. I'm fine with laying 4 if that's where it's at when it's finally available to play. I just can't see Miami able to stay involved with a close game after what happened Saturday. I'm looking for Philly to break out ahead and after Miami misses some shots, I can't see the Heat trying to stay close.
 

Dogfather
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Not A Special Play Anymore

Piss me off. I go to all this trouble writing up this game because I liked it so much and they don't put out the line until it's up to 7.5. I am still going to play this game, except for two major differences. I'm just playing this as a normal play, one I play for myself but don't post as a special play. I still look for Miami to come out flat and disinterested, which is why I AM NOW PLAYING JUST THE FIRST HALF WITH PHILLY MINUS 4.
 

Dogfather
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It figures. I do the right thing and remove Philly as a Special Play because 7.5 was too high and after playing crappy the whole game, they close strong and win by eight. This is after my own first half bet loses by a point, so what started off a great play, ended up a non play with a small loss on the first half. What made it worse was hearing the Heat's announcers keep saying how tired the Heat looked and that they were playing their bench much more than usual. Just one more time of being right and getting nothing for it.
 

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