Special play (18-11 ytd)

[thesandman1]

This is my first play since Saturday, when I posted South Florida as a +6.5 home dog vs Villanova. With 1:34 left, it was a just three point game, but turned into a 9 point loss with S. Florida missing three point jump shots and Villanova making their FT's. Today I have a Special Play where the line is not reflective of these two schools today. I can't understand why St. Marys, a much better team this year than last year is a bigger dog this year at Gonzaga. Do you? Granted, St. Marys does not play well at Gonzaga, no one has, but today will be different. They are a better team than in past years, while Gonzaga at 14-4 SU is not as good as usual and even a small play on the Money Line has a good chance to cash. I really believe Patty Mills will out play Jeremy Pargo while do you know the St. Marys tandem of Diamon Simpson and Omar Samhan are second in the country in combined number of rebounds right after the brothers at Oklahoma.

Last year Gonzaga was a 7 point favorite at home against unranked St. Marys. Today, St. Marys is ranked 18 in the USA poll, and 22 in the AP poll, ahead of Gonzaga ranked 24. St. Marys has a 15 game winning streak, the longest in the country, which includes out of conference wins over Providence, Oregon and Southern Illinois. I JUST PLAYED THEM PLUS NINE POINTS AT BOOKMAKER. You should be able to find +8.5 and maybe even +9 will still be available in the morning.

PLAY ST. MARYS PLUS 8.5.

THE GAME IS ON ESPN2 AT 8 PM PST.

 

[thesandman1]

More info

Current line has St. Marys +9 everywhere and Plus 370 on the Money Line. I'm still having a hard time trying to figure why a team that is 10-1 SU away from home is a 9 point dog to a team with a similar Power Rating. Yes, I do know St. Marys has lost their last 13 games at Gonzaga dating back to 1995, but this year Gonzaga is not the better team. In fact, this line is almost double digits for two fairly even teams. Can anyone tell me why the ZAGS are such big favorites. I hope some of you get a chance to watch part of this game to see for yourself how good St. Marys is this year.

Here is some more info to help you decide if you agree with me or not.

GONZAGA is #2 in the nation in FG DEFENSE at 36.1%
ST. MARYS is #5 in the nation in 3 point FG DEFENSE at 28.2%.
ST. MARYS is #5 in the nation is REBOUNDING MARGIN at 9.1 per game.

What the hell. A little more for you to read can't hurt. Let's just say the more I post about a game, the more I like my play. I didn't write this but I did cut and paste it. It's from Scoresline.com.

FACTS & STATS: Site: McCarthey Athletic Center (6,000) -- Spokane, Washington.Television: ESPN2. Home Record: Saint Mary's 8-0, Gonzaga 6-1. Away Record: Saint Mary's 6-0, Gonzaga 4-1. Neutral Record: Saint Mary's 4-1, Gonzaga 4-2.Conference Record: Saint Mary's 5-0, Gonzaga 5-0. Series Record: Gonzaga leads, 45-23.

GAME NOTES: The showdown that West Coast Conference fans have waited for will finally take place tonight, as the 20th-ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs play host to the 22nd-ranked Saint Mary's Gaels.Saint Mary's is riding a school record 15-game win streak and owns an 18-1 overall record. The Gaels have been idle since last Thursday when they crushed a solid San Diego squad on the road in a 65-42 final. The last three wins have all come by at least 23 points, including a 50-point thrashing of Pepperdine two weeks ago.As for Gonzaga, it has won its last six outings to move to 14-4 overall. Like the Gaels, the Bulldogs are a perfect 5-0 against WCC competition, and the club is coming off a 93-60 thrashing of Loyola Marymount on Saturday. Mark Few captured his 250th victory since taking over as head coach of the program in 1999, and his program has achieved sustained excellence during that tenure.Gonzaga owns a 45-23 series lead over Saint Mary's, and the Bulldogs have won the last 13 meetings in Spokane.Saint Mary's is a dominant rebounding team that is pulling down nearly nine more boards per contest than the opposition. The Gaels are generating 77.0 ppg at the offensive end, and they are limiting opponents to 62.6 ppg on 38.8 percent shooting from the field, including 29.6 percent from three-point range. Patrick Mills is scoring 18.7 ppg, and the star guard is handing out 4.0 apg as well to lead the club. Omar Samhan checks in with 13.9 ppg and 9.8 rpg, while Diamon Simpson is providing 12.8 ppg and 10.9 rpg. The Gaels connected on 55.6 percent of their field goal attempts against San Diego last time out and limited the Toreros to just 32.1 percent shooting. A 40-19 rebounding advantage also played a major role in the triumph. Samhan finished that tilt with 16 points and 12 boards. Mills added 12 points and five assists, while Carlin Hughes tallied 10 points.

Five players reached double figures in scoring for Gonzaga in the rout of Loyola Marymount on Saturday. Matt Bouldin led the way with 18 points, and Josh Heytvelt contributed 15 points. Austin Daye and Steven Gray contributed 14 points apiece, and Daye ripped down 10 boards as well. Rounding out the quintet was Micah Downs who finished with 10 points despite a poor 1-of-8 effort from the field. The Zags earned a 53-35 rebounding advantage and limited the Lions to 25 percent shooting from the floor. Overall this season, Heytvelt leads Gonzaga with 14.7 ppg, and he is second on the team with 6.8 rpg. As for Daye, he is second with 13.8 ppg and first with his 7.1 rpg.Bouldin checks in with 13.1 ppg, and Gray provides 10.6 ppg. Jeremy Pargo is dishing out 5.9 apg, and the stud point guard doesn't need to score much for the Zags to be successful.

This game will be fun to watch, as both teams are capable of making a run in the NCAA Tournament thanks to a wealth of talent and experience on their respective rosters. The Bulldogs get the nod here as the hometown faithful will provide them with the extra support they need to claim a hard-fought victory.

Predicted Outcome: Gonzaga 75, Saint Mary's-CA 70

 

[Mr.Cover123]

Line is high because nobody knows about St. Mary's and they have played nobody.

I will be on them too and play on the ML.

 

[mpn]

Line is high because nobody knows about St. Mary's and they have played nobody.

I will be on them too and play on the ML.

This isn't true, St. Mary's CA whooped on San Diego last week on ESPN. Blowout since 5 minutes into the game, I see around 73% on St. Mary's and we also have some reverse line movement here as Gonzaga went from -8 to -9. I'm not saying that St. Mary's doesn't cover, but Vegas wasn't built on easy covers.

 

[Mr.Cover123]

This isn't true, St. Mary's CA whooped on San Diego last week on ESPN. Blowout since 5 minutes into the game, I see around 73% on St. Mary's and we also have some reverse line movement here as Gonzaga went from -8 to -9. I'm not saying that St. Mary's doesn't cover, but Vegas wasn't built on easy covers.

I have gotten easy covers the past few weeks with stupid lines like last night with Wake. This is another gift line IMO.

 

[midman2161]

I think that St Mary's has a good shot to cover, but saying that the line is 9 because no one knows about them wouldnt be accurate. Public is backing St Marys ATS in this one.

 

[Mr.Cover123]

I think that St Mary's has a good shot to cover, but saying that the line is 9 because no one knows about them wouldnt be accurate. Public is backing St Marys ATS in this one.

Ask the average gambler and I bet they can't name one player on St. Mary's besides Mills.

 

[midman2161]

Agreed, but as you know most average gamblers dont look all that in depth.. they see a higher-ranked team getting 9 points. It wouldnt surprise me if a lot of people taking St Marys dont know a player on Gonzaga besides Pargo.

 

[Mr.Cover123]

We will see what happens. I just think the line should be Gonzaga -5 at most. Mills is the fastest player in the nation and they have two dominate inside players with Samran and Simpson.

 

[thesandman1]

To say St. Marys is Mills and no one else is a big mistake. As good as Mills is already and he will keep getting better, I don't think St. Marys would be ranked if they didn't have Samran and Simpson. Rebounding is important and it's hard to beat a team when they are getting 9 more rebounds per game.

Someone said St. Marys hasen't played anyone. PROVIDENCE, OREGON AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS are three pretty good teams. I realize this is a down year for Oregon but good or bad they are tough to beat at home which is what St. Marys did.