I think there are better games out there tonight. Both Puerto Rico -3.5 and Canada -4.5 look like better bets. The Netherlands won despite only 2 or 3 hits, taking advantage of Dominican mistakes. Meanwhile. Italy is just horrendous... no matter who Canada throws on the mound, they will only need to go 3-4 innings until Canada's half decent 'pen takes over. Canada should crush the ball at home, against anyone the Italians throw out there. Probably a bit of pressure to put on a show in front of the home fans.
In this particular group, I would look for that Mexico/South Africa Winner vs. Australia/Cuba Loser game to go miles over the number. The ball is just flying out in Mexico right now... in addition to the short distance down the lines. Unfortunately, that theory may not apply to the South Africa/Mexico game, because it's unsure if the South Africans will get a run. They are absolutely baffled by anything off speed.