About 95% of the lines I post will be taken from pinnacle, the remainder from thegreek because those are the two books where I put in my wagers. Standard play will be 2units, in theory there might be a 10unit play, but usually I don't place any bets above 6units and there is only a handful of bets per season where I go above 4units.
For anybody that's interested in my track record: I posted in the past from time to time, but never even close to a full season. Last year I posted about 40 picks until I kind of lost interest. I was slightly up at that time, but pretty much just broke even and only earned a nice plus with season win totals.
I lost interest last year because I switched to pitcher prop bets and trading MLB in-play for May/June (easier areas to exploit, but like usual that also means a limited timeframe to bet these before you get limited and/or booted) before travelling to and across Europe for about a month shortly after the allstar break.
But I also stopped betting pregame moneyline/runlines/1st 5 innings/totals because I know from experience that I do best over the first like 3-5 weeks every season. After that in my opinion lines put up by the bookies get much better because books start to catch up on trends and over/underrated players (esp. starting pitchers) while at the beginning of the season they often times put too much value in career stats.
This year I haven't posted anything yet, so the record obviously will be 0-0-0 (win/loss/push).
But fwiw I have gone 12-6-3. The last 12 bets ended up being 9-1-2 (last night CLE +0 1st 5inn -105 with T.Bauer was a winner, while MIN@KC under8 -115 was a bad beat push thanks to some terrible errors), so after a bad start I hope that I turned things around, but it doesn't really say anything because it's just been a couple of bets yet.
So I'll try to keep posting daily for most part for now. Feel free to follow or fade or do whatever you want with it.
If anybody wants to discuss games, feel free to post. Always good to get a 2nd point of view on the same game because we all have a certain angle how we look at games/lines and from time to time tend to overlook or disregard certain aspects that should be taken into account.
Oakland As @ LA Angels
under 8 -115 2units
LAA ML -110 2units
Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners
HOU ML +105 2units
Pomeranz is a solid pitcher, imo he's still a bit underrated. Last start vs HOU the Astros put up 4 runs in 5IP against him, but he still looked decent and right now I'm not too high on the Angels offense. Last year they were able to score 5runs in 5.1IP on just 4H, but Pomeranz since then has improved his control and in his 2nd start vs LAA went 7 scoreless innings.
Santiago is another very solid starter, he absolutely dominated OAK last season with an 0.77 ERA in 4 starts over 23.1IP. OAKs offense is mediocre, they are also missing Zobrist and with Pestano, Smith and Street the Angels have a very nice backend of the bullpen.
Walker has been anemic in his first two starts, HOU had decent results against him last year and their offense slowly is starting to show some signs of life. McHugh on the other hand has delivered two great starts and in his two starts @SEA last year was almost unhittable. The Astros pen also is very decent with Gregerson doing a good job as their closer, while SEAs bullpen has struggled up to this point. I'm also not too high on SEAs offense aside from red-hot Nelson Cruz and the annually good Cano. But no matter how you slice it, even factoring in homefield advantage, Walker right now shouldn't really be favored above anyone, even less vs someone like McHugh.
Will post two more 1st 5 innings bets once pinnacle puts up the lines.
For anybody that's interested in my track record: I posted in the past from time to time, but never even close to a full season. Last year I posted about 40 picks until I kind of lost interest. I was slightly up at that time, but pretty much just broke even and only earned a nice plus with season win totals.
I lost interest last year because I switched to pitcher prop bets and trading MLB in-play for May/June (easier areas to exploit, but like usual that also means a limited timeframe to bet these before you get limited and/or booted) before travelling to and across Europe for about a month shortly after the allstar break.
But I also stopped betting pregame moneyline/runlines/1st 5 innings/totals because I know from experience that I do best over the first like 3-5 weeks every season. After that in my opinion lines put up by the bookies get much better because books start to catch up on trends and over/underrated players (esp. starting pitchers) while at the beginning of the season they often times put too much value in career stats.
This year I haven't posted anything yet, so the record obviously will be 0-0-0 (win/loss/push).
But fwiw I have gone 12-6-3. The last 12 bets ended up being 9-1-2 (last night CLE +0 1st 5inn -105 with T.Bauer was a winner, while MIN@KC under8 -115 was a bad beat push thanks to some terrible errors), so after a bad start I hope that I turned things around, but it doesn't really say anything because it's just been a couple of bets yet.
So I'll try to keep posting daily for most part for now. Feel free to follow or fade or do whatever you want with it.
If anybody wants to discuss games, feel free to post. Always good to get a 2nd point of view on the same game because we all have a certain angle how we look at games/lines and from time to time tend to overlook or disregard certain aspects that should be taken into account.
Oakland As @ LA Angels
under 8 -115 2units
LAA ML -110 2units
Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners
HOU ML +105 2units
Pomeranz is a solid pitcher, imo he's still a bit underrated. Last start vs HOU the Astros put up 4 runs in 5IP against him, but he still looked decent and right now I'm not too high on the Angels offense. Last year they were able to score 5runs in 5.1IP on just 4H, but Pomeranz since then has improved his control and in his 2nd start vs LAA went 7 scoreless innings.
Santiago is another very solid starter, he absolutely dominated OAK last season with an 0.77 ERA in 4 starts over 23.1IP. OAKs offense is mediocre, they are also missing Zobrist and with Pestano, Smith and Street the Angels have a very nice backend of the bullpen.
Walker has been anemic in his first two starts, HOU had decent results against him last year and their offense slowly is starting to show some signs of life. McHugh on the other hand has delivered two great starts and in his two starts @SEA last year was almost unhittable. The Astros pen also is very decent with Gregerson doing a good job as their closer, while SEAs bullpen has struggled up to this point. I'm also not too high on SEAs offense aside from red-hot Nelson Cruz and the annually good Cano. But no matter how you slice it, even factoring in homefield advantage, Walker right now shouldn't really be favored above anyone, even less vs someone like McHugh.
Will post two more 1st 5 innings bets once pinnacle puts up the lines.
