Sonics up by 21 at half/line at +2 -150???

[quantumleap]

What am I missing here? Seattle was up by 21 at halftime and the line at Pinnacle was Sea +2 -150 and NJ -2 +133. I had to jump on the New Jersey line. Why would anyone think that Seattle would continue to hold that type of lead throughout the game? Who was betting on Sea +2 -108 to cause it to go to -150?

Perhaps there were people that thought NJ may come out in the 3rd only to have Sea finish strong. Can someone help me out here?

 

[petre]

any thought to expressing this analysis at the halftime of the game in question so that others may have joined in on the copious winnings? not much point to blather on about something after the fact, is there? by the way i layed the nets-1-110 myself...........just to cover an large seattle bet.........

 

[Doug]

Petre: In defense of QL it's tough to post at halftime, time is short.


QL: NJ sucks, threw up an 8-point Q1, that's brutal !

I took Seattle H2 +114, and +1 -110, and under 94 -121. I had game under 180 also large, and moderate -11.5 -107.

Seattle was winning H2 ( covering) until garbage time, even after losing Q3 badly. I couldn't watch the game, not on. I prefer it that way, but will watch if available.

I lost a lot of profits on that H2, but won for the day ! I really overbet that one. I sometimes push to hard when ahead, but don't chase.

 

[quantumleap]

any thought to expressing this analysis at the halftime of the game in question so that others may have joined in on the copious winnings? not much point to blather on about something after the fact, is there? by the way i layed the nets-1-110 myself...........just to cover an large seattle bet.........

Point well made about posting after the fact petre. However I have posted several halftime bets that seemed like no-brainers only to have them lose. I thought I would bring up a valuable point after it was validated. I also thought we could learn from these odds when they presented themselves again.

My point being that if a team is down by 21 points (even a weak team like NJ) they should be expected to cover a -2 spread. What incentive is there for a leading team to hold on to a lead such as this? There is much incentive for a team trailing by this much to save face and not get beat by 21+.

I guess the thing that I thought strange was the fact that there were people betting the Seattle line so much that it was driven from -108 to -150.

DougJ: I have the same problem of pressing when ahead but I also chase when behind. When will I ever learn? I suppose after I develop a good system.

 

[Doug]

QL; There are differing schools of thought on this. Some say NJ is the bet, others say " if Seattle whupped em by 21 in H1 ( don't forget that 8-point Q1), they can win H2 also.

I play teams like +600- +1000 and better. any team can beat any other team, nothing like it exists in say MLB where +300 is top odds. I like Charlotte in H1 say +380 against a strong team, they have a good half in them ! Can't close, though.

I play almost any team to win H2 of NBA game on ML at +200 or better. I'm working on it. That may only work in early part of season, I adapt.

Lines like Bulls +940 over Jazz beg for a bet, NBA teams take nights off, too. Show me a baseball game with a +940 ML. Anything over +300 is very rare.

I say an NBA team favored 10-1 is insane. I sure wouldn't lay the juice on ML on a fav like that.

 

[PeteRoseJR]

It depends on the spread and the situation....It is important to know how these teams do in quarters so you can base your halftime bets appropriately.....The best Halftime bet is when you have a home discount in effect and get a reduced line....The worst scenario is the one mentioned above especially with a road team...I realize they covered this time but long term you will lose..Too hard to predict how teams will react.....In this case NJ 3 rd quarter stats wise the best bet.....2-2 vs.3-3.....Seattles other records in comparison with NJ are not even close any other quarter..

 

[quantumleap]

Thanks for the feedback guys.

Pete, I like your point about the 3rd quarter and looking at quarter performance.

DougJ, I hadn't thought about the angle regarding the +300 ML when compared to baseball. I have thought about taking some -175 lines due to the fact that I wouldn't hesitate taking a line like that in baseball. It's interesting to see the differences in the lines compared between the sports.