I see posters playing huge dogs like today giants game for the value.i just dont see any value at all in the giants today.to me if the books put up a line like this there is a damn good reason for it.sure you might hit one of these things every once in a while but i dont see it.heck if you want a underdog and hoping for some luck Thompson+475 in boxing is a big dog today.but for people to see value in a big number i have never got it.to me this was a no play with the only value in the cubs.....ck
You know the crazy part is i was just gonna play cubs 1st 5 innings.......and the odds for that was -200.........wtf........thought it would be half........insane
My thoughts exactly CK. That's like saying there was alot of value in the field vs. Kobyashi and Joey Chestnut in the hotdog eating contest +400 or something like that. Value only takes place when a team has a legitimate shot to win. Only way San Fran could slow down the Cubs was w/ Lincecum or Sanchez and the line would have reflected that.
Disagree with you a bit on Baltimore as a value play. Think there's a pretty good amount of value for a couple reasons, Baltimore has been scoring runs a great clip lately (5+ runs in 10 out of their last 11) Boston is 0-4 v. the AL East with Wakefield on the mound this year. Plus, no Lugo today and possibly no Drew as well for Boston. On the con side, Boston rarely loses 2 games in a row at home and Liz has been getting hit very hard lately. Still going to take a small chance at +175, with a larger play on the Balt TT O 4.
unless I see a severe pitching mismatch or hot team vs. cold team. I like to stay in the (-120) to +120 range. (-150) is about as high as I go. if I have a play on a -200 or more game it is a total. Would have probally bet the under in Cubs/Giants. Alot more even matchups to throw coin down on today. Look forward to viewing your selections CK.
I have only been around this forum for the last few days and admittedly am somewhat new to sportbetting (been betting for the last 3 months only). I was going to start a thread like this myself as I don't understand it either and felt as though I was missing a big part of the betting equation. Glad to see someone else is as confused as me. I figure if the books see a team as a landslide favorite and the betting public agrees, who's to say they're all wrong. Of course anything can happen, but overall baseball seems to be a statistical game and good is good, bad is bad. If someone can enlighten me further, I sure would appreciate it.
Chico what up guy, hope all is well there.just posted it as soon as i got around to it today.like i said very early the odds are stack against you big time with balt tonite and with a 9-1 lead in the 4th is look true to form here.at least the giants made a game out of it.but again just didnt see the value in the dog here.these games are better imo to pass up on both sides......ck
I really disagree. In baseball the teams really aren't that far apart. Even a team like SF will win 70+ games this season, so any time you can get any team at +200 or better there is a lot of value. If you look it up I'm sure that you'd be plus money on the season if you played every single +200 dog on the season, no matter what.
Today was a PERFECT example of why there is so much value in a huge dog. Even when the favortie takes care of business and destroys them for most of the game all it takes is one or two people to play poorly and ruin the bet (Marmol today). Baseball is just a game of parity, and nobody should be that big of a favorite IMO, and if someone is it should be a top team with the best pitcher at home against a mediocre pitcher, which wasn't the case today (Corriea(sp) is average, and Harden is only top 20 IMO).
Today was a PERFECT example of why there is so much value in a huge dog. Even when the favortie takes care of business and destroys them for most of the game all it takes is one or two people to play poorly and ruin the bet (Marmol today). Baseball is just a game of parity, and nobody should be that big of a favorite IMO, and if someone is it should be a top team with the best pitcher at home against a mediocre pitcher, which wasn't the case today (Corriea(sp) is average, and Harden is only top 20 IMO).
