Let me start off by saying I have developed my own method over a long period of time using a lot of trial and error. I have never been one to follow the herd so some of the methods listed might not make sense to some of you. Actually, I’m hoping most of it doesn’t so here are a few in no particular order.
Live in a bubble the best you can. To put it short and sweet, don’t give any weight to 99% of the stuff you read on the internet, listen to on the radio or watch on television. Everyone has an opinion on everything, especially members of the sports media. Remember the old phrase that opinions are like assholes - everyone has one and they all stink. Develop your own power ratings and use them.
Watch less football, not more. In years past I used to record and review countless games week after week. It does not help. Your eyes can and will deceive you. This is what power ratings are for, to take personal bias out of the equation.
Try handicapping just the NFL. I grew up a fan of all sports but found I only had a knack for predicting NFL games correctly. As time went by I watched other sports less and less and devoted all my energy towards handicapping just pro football. I started preparing for the 2014 season about a week after the Super Bowl. Now that the season is upon us, I just track some preseason numbers and actually take it easy until the first Sunday of the season.
Do not develop “off-season” power ratings. I think one of the biggest mistakes you can make is to comprise a list of team rankings based on last year’s records, offseason moves, the draft and public opinion. I recently posted both NFC and AFC preseason rankings after three full weeks of exhibition football were complete and received a comment that my ranking of the 49ers at 14[SUP]th[/SUP] in the NFC was a joke. At the beginning of every season I start off every team at zero so once the preseason stats start coming in I can view them with an open mind. Even though the 49ers have had three solid seasons under Jim Harbaugh, my numbers show they are having a horrible preseason this year. Forget what happened last year and start the new season off thinking anything can happen. Because it will.
Live in a bubble the best you can. To put it short and sweet, don’t give any weight to 99% of the stuff you read on the internet, listen to on the radio or watch on television. Everyone has an opinion on everything, especially members of the sports media. Remember the old phrase that opinions are like assholes - everyone has one and they all stink. Develop your own power ratings and use them.
Watch less football, not more. In years past I used to record and review countless games week after week. It does not help. Your eyes can and will deceive you. This is what power ratings are for, to take personal bias out of the equation.
Try handicapping just the NFL. I grew up a fan of all sports but found I only had a knack for predicting NFL games correctly. As time went by I watched other sports less and less and devoted all my energy towards handicapping just pro football. I started preparing for the 2014 season about a week after the Super Bowl. Now that the season is upon us, I just track some preseason numbers and actually take it easy until the first Sunday of the season.
Do not develop “off-season” power ratings. I think one of the biggest mistakes you can make is to comprise a list of team rankings based on last year’s records, offseason moves, the draft and public opinion. I recently posted both NFC and AFC preseason rankings after three full weeks of exhibition football were complete and received a comment that my ranking of the 49ers at 14[SUP]th[/SUP] in the NFC was a joke. At the beginning of every season I start off every team at zero so once the preseason stats start coming in I can view them with an open mind. Even though the 49ers have had three solid seasons under Jim Harbaugh, my numbers show they are having a horrible preseason this year. Forget what happened last year and start the new season off thinking anything can happen. Because it will.
