some notes on tonight`s bout

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klitschko`s last 7 fights....

larry donald...tko 10 win

vaughn bean....tko 11 win

ross puritty...tko 11 win

orlin norris(blown up cruiserweight)ko 1 win

timo hoffman .....un decision 12 win

chris byrd......tko 10 loss(klit retired due to supposed shoulder injury....ahead by 6,6, and 5 points on the cards...could have lost the last 3 rounds and still won handily)....the heart is a question mark....


obed sullivan....tko 10 win

many are looking at under 8.....as was i .....

now i`m not so sure....lennox tends to be conservative early....he`s a defensive fighter and usually waits for mistakes from the other guy...

as we all know,he`s up to 258 or so for this fight....the highest weight of his career...and coming off of a 377 or so day layoff(also the longest of his career)....if he comes out fast and doesn`t get the job done,it will be a tough 12 rounds for a guy weighing in a little heavy...and as the above indicates,vitali has been going deep into his most recent fights...

i`m here to tell you that long layoffs are the worst things for a fighter....witness top lightheavyweight eric harding losing to journeyman glencoffe johnson....layoffs make you sloppy and lazy......

throw in the high weight,the last minute change in opponent,age(lennox is 37 yeras old),layoff, and you have an interesting scenario....

oliver mccall and rahmann got lucky.....i don`t see why klitscko wouldn`t have a shot.........6`8" tall....technically sound(even if a little stiff...o.k.,spinal meningitis stiff),and a big puncher with a decent jab...

i sense a little overconfidence from lennox....flush with victory after the tyson blow-out....maybe why he`s not in tip top shape...



i think this is a dangerous fight....if lennox blows klitscko out,a real feather in his cap and another big notch on that legacy belt.....and a serious blow to those who have claimed that the klitschko`s are legit tip top heavyweights...i said if a blowout...if it`s a tough,hard fought bout,it helps the klitschko`s...even a loss...funny how most seem to think of them as one entity...imo,wlad is the better klitschko...

but,over aggressiveness in this fight could be a dangerous thing...against a taller guy that can hurt you if he catches you...and lennox doesn`t recover well when hurt badly...

don`t have a definitive opinion on this one....i prefer the more obscure bouts....the lines are looser...like last night laying -135 on diego corrales under 8...beautiful....

but,is a lennox loss out of the question?....i don`t really think so.....is a lennox decision win out of the question....a tentative,probing fight....a jabfest....i think it`s possible...

does vitali have the stones to gut out a long fight.....a big-time,high profile fight.....he has been going deep into his most recent fights...but not against this level of opposition...

maybe a small play on vitali by k.o.(o.k.,i already put a small,small play on it at 5-1....why not....the stars seem to be aligning here).....

maybe also a very small play on lewis by decision at +240....a little hedge...

i have to admit,i really wanted to play under 8....


whatever...very small...playing with a small portion of last night`s stake...

g.l. guys.....this ones tough....i couldn`t lay the 5-1 with lennox tonight....he`ll probably win..maybe fast..but,not with my money....i`m looking for live dogs....longshots....

better ones on the horizon......

g.l. if you decide to take a shot....i wish i had a more definitive opinion... the longshots for chits and giggles...


btw....visor has an idea on the klit decision prop...oly has it at +1100....maybe a 10 spot on it....good idea visor...

if lennox wins by k.o.,as most think,no biggy....a couple dollars shot...

[This message was edited by sphincter on June 21, 2003 at 07:58 PM.]

[This message was edited by sphincter on June 21, 2003 at 08:24 PM.]
 

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Great analysis points SP. I used to only come here to read your analysis'. Was wondering where you went. Good luck 2nite. I pulled the trigger on LL myself. The planet bet me under soI need over for a small penny too. Good luk 2nite.- Bagels
 

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odessa...nice to talk to you again....just wanted tio throw my 2 cents in on this biggie....all that info,and i don`t really have an opinion....go figure....sorry i couldn`t be of more help...g.l. with your wagers.....i`ll be rootin` for ya`....

btw...i` moved to another forum...a little tired of the anti-american stuff here...but,everybody`s entitled to their opinion....i can respect that...
 

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Same here Spinch, I've been looking all over for you. Are you posting on boxingtalk now? Email me at laptops24@aol.com. I cant lose touch with you, youre the man.

I have no opinion on this. Vitali might be worth a shot at +400 but like you, I question his heart.
 

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you guys got mail....almly...how you been?.....g.l. tonight.....takin` it light with some throw away underdog plays......we`ll get some big ones in the near future...g.l.
 

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almly....your e mail didnt take...don`t know why....maybe odessa can shoot the info over....
 

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