Some early thoughts for this week

[Kojak]

Had some initial thought when seeing some of these early lines. Thought I would drum up some conversation.

Baylor -17 at Kstate....Snyder teams usually don't play as poorly back to back as they have vs Texas and OU. Feel Bill may have them ready vs Baylor going into first game without their QB. Hard to picture Baylor covering this number on road vs Snyder coached team.

Miss St -7 at Mizzou....similar to Snyder, this is a signature Pinkel game. Got feeling Mizzou will play well here.

Illinois at Purdue -1......this line feels like a double overreaction to last game with Purdue upset over Nebraska and Illlini getting blown out and shut out. Wrong team favored imo.

Iowa -7 at Indiana....IU been pretty good at home and played big teams hard this year. Iowa has not faced an offense like this all year. Smelling upset?

Minny at Ohio St -23....did Gophers empty their emotional bank vs Michigan? Barnett suspended here but sensing blowout here

LSU at Alabama -7....Tide has not covered at home this year but seem to get up for big games and play down to lesser opponents this year. LSU qualifies in big game column but think TIGERS will be ready here.

NC St -4 at BC...BC much better home team but was expecting number more towards double digits. Trap? NC St blow its wad coming up short vs Clemson? Hung over from loss?

Share thought or had any thoughts on any game

 

[ScottFromWa]

Kojak, long time lurker with few posts under my belt, but I always appreciate your info/picks, so thought I'd chime in:

BC and Mizzou. Both teams struggle to score so badly that their defenses have to nearly pitch shut-outs to keep them in the game. I don't think that either NC State nor Mississippi State have to bring their A game on offense to out pace the struggling BC and Mizzou offenses.

The QB is the key for Baylor and going on the road to break in a new one isn't a good look for them. I like your thoughts on K State.

I think, as you do, that Illinois is a better team than Purdue (who is horribly coached), but Illinois will be on the road for the second consecutive week and Purdue might actually have some confidence after getting a shoot-out win over a struggling Nebraska team last week.

Iowa's schedule sets up nicely for an undefeated regular season, so you'd think they wouldn't overlook anyone, but I like Indiana in this spot because of their offense ... just like you said.

I think Ohio State rolls Minnesota. Minnesota can only go to the well so often and they've got to be spent after last weeks heartbreaker ... especially when they go back and look at how poorly their interim coach handled the goal line series. Maybe not having to worry who is behind center (with Barrett suspended) gives Ohio State more focus this week.

Alabama laying 7 looks like too much to me, which makes me think I should take Alabama and lay the 7. (As a Pac-12 guy, I also have trouble buying into anything that Lane Kiffen is involved in). My gut tells me LSU +7, but my head says 'Bama -7.

Best of luck in all your wagers.

 

[Kojak]

One angle I look at in both college and Nfl is looking at teams on a winning or losing streak su and ats continue their streak but lose their ats streak. When that happens had a lot of success betting them the next week to break su streak. For example Baylor had been covering and winning games until last game out won but didn't cover against Iowa State. Normally strong play to bet against them next game.

Another angle is seeing which teams looked bad getting blown out the week before or get unexpected win , seeing a line overreaction as a result. Example Miami,FL vs Duke this past weekend.

Third angle is betting against teams coming off an emotional game the week before. Normally nothing left in the tank and lost game to boot. This past weekend Michigan coming off of Michigan St debacle was a good bet against as a result. Didnt bet it. This weekend Minnesota and NC State fall into that category.

There are several angles I check and look for each week. Going to be busy this week so maybe those that can help compile those lists in this thread would be appreciated.

 

[Kojak]

Another angle is seeing which teams have an ats streak winning or losing in 3 or more consecutive games. NFL I normally use 3 in a row. College I use 4 in a row. Normally good time to bet against them when they get to that point or at least considering it as line usually starts losing value or gaining value depending if it is a winning or losing streak.

 

[Kojak]

College ats streaks"

Baylor- Undefeated but lost last game ats losing 4 in a row streak ats. Angle 1 (K State live?)
Clemson- Won 4 in a row ats. Angle 4
East Carolina- Lost 3 in a row ats. Angle 4
Eastern Michigan- L4 ats Angle 4
Florida- W6 in a row ats (2 depending on number) Angle 4
Georgia- L5 ats Angle 4
Houston- W3 ats Angle 4
Indiana- L3 ats Angle 4
Kentucky - L4 ats Angle 4
LSU-W3 ats Angle 4
Maryland- L5 su, W3 ats Angle 4 but can see Angle 1 as competition played was Penn St, Iowa, and Ohio State they covered against
UMass- L4 ats Angle 4
Middle Tennessee St- L4 ats Angle 4
Northern Illinois- W3 ats Angle 4, Toledo all games and covered all games so very interesting setup
New Mexico- L4 ats Angle 4
North Texas- W3 ats Angle 4
Notre Dame- W3 su, W5 ats broken lw Angle 1 (Pitt live?)
Oklahoma-W3 ats Angle 4
Oklahoma St-W3 Angle 4
Old Dominion- L8 su and ats (every game), Angle 4, Note looked competitive as offense improved
Oregon St-L5 su, L4 ats broken lw Angle 1(may be live vs UCLA)
San Diego St- W5 ats and su Angle 4
Stanford- W7 su, W6 ats broken lw Angle 1 (Colorado live ?)
Tennessee- W3 ats Angle 4
Texas A&M- L3 ats Angle 4
Texas Tech-L3 ats Angle 4
Toledo- Won 8su and ats (every game) Angle 4
UNLV- L3 su and ats Angle 4
West Virginia- L4 su and ats Angle 4
Washington St- W5 ats Angle 4

 

[Kojak]

Teams coming off blowout wins
Cincinnati
Houston
Penn St
Purdue (score not as reflective)
Tennessee
Washington

Teams coming off unexpected blowout losses
Arizona
Illinois
Kentucky
Nebraska
Texas
Vanderbilt
Georgia

Potential Emotional letdowns
Clemson-though playing FSU so not as likely
Duke
Florida
Georgia
Minnesota
NC State
Oklahoma St
Ole Miss
Stanford
Washington St
Temple
Texas Tech-losing big lead now going on road

Please add if you think someone should be added.

 

[CoachCB]

Florida has 2 starting OL possibly out this week....1 definitely, the other very likely (Sharpe, LT & Ivey, LG).

 

[grammer]

My thoughts on week 10. I think Tennessee blows out So. Carolina. The Volunteers have been very competitive in the SEC losing by 5 to Bama, beat Georgia,
loss to Arkansas by 4, loss to Florida by 1 and to Okla. by 7. Gamecocks cant wait for season to end. Number is -16 and I think they win by at least 3 td's.

Oregon -5. These teams are going in opposite directions. Cal on a 3-game losing streak and all of their wins were tight games with the exception being a 31-7 win over SDS. Down year for Ducks but I think they cover the -6.

Ohio St -23.5. Very tough loss for Minny last week. I think they were emotionally charged playing for Coach Kill who resigned. I just look at the week before the
Buckeye game where they were run over by a very bad Nebraska team. I think they revert back to the Nebraska game and get beat by at least 28 points.

South Florida +4. The Bulls have been playing better lately. I played them at Navy last week and the final score of 17-29 was not indicative of how close that
game was. A fumble of a punt return was their undoing. ECU is tough at home but was beat soundly at Navy earlier in the year. I'm probably going to take another flyer on the Bulls this week.

Pitt +8. Tough to go against ND this week who are a confident team right now but I'm thinking maybe Pitt can keep it under the number. LW they played a very tough North Carolina team who has won 7 in a row close losing by 7. Panthers own wins over Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech so they are no push-overs. My only concern is if the Carolina game took too much out of them since that game was for 1st place in the ACC Coastal Division.