I hear what you guys say about College Football teasers; however, if I have teams that I know are going to win that are laying 7-10 points I will compare the moneyline parlay payout with the teaser payout.
For example. I like Auburn and Michigan tomorrow. If I parlay the ml's Michigan is -310 and Auburn is -350 it pays .70 on the dollar and I if tease them with 6 points it pays 1.00 on the 1.00. (lines from Canbet).
I will tease that everytime and risk Auburn having to win by more than 2 and Michigan by more than 1 for the better payout.
I play 10 point teasers mostly with NFL because the games are so much tighter but I will do the same analysis with ml's vs. teasers.
BTW, while I am posting I have played the above teaser at even money.
For example. I like Auburn and Michigan tomorrow. If I parlay the ml's Michigan is -310 and Auburn is -350 it pays .70 on the dollar and I if tease them with 6 points it pays 1.00 on the 1.00. (lines from Canbet).
I will tease that everytime and risk Auburn having to win by more than 2 and Michigan by more than 1 for the better payout.
I play 10 point teasers mostly with NFL because the games are so much tighter but I will do the same analysis with ml's vs. teasers.
BTW, while I am posting I have played the above teaser at even money.
do not play college teasers!! nfl teasers are good
kenny: "...if I have teams that I know are going to win that are laying 7-10 points..."
The next time you have even one 7-10 pt fav that you 'know' is going to win, pls share it with us.
Also: "If I parlay the ml's Michigan is -310 and Auburn is -350 it pays .70 on the dollar and I if tease them with 6 points it pays 1.00 on the 1.00. (lines from Canbet). I will tease that everytime and risk Auburn having to win by more than 2 and Michigan by more than 1 for the better payout." 7-10 pt favs will ALWAYS pay better on a 6-pt tease than a moneyline parlay. Its pure math. You don't have to ever bother to compare. What you do need to find out is how often 7-10 favs win, but only win by 1-2 points. Then you can figure out if its better to play a moneyline parlay or a 6-pt tease.
Bottom line remains - don't tease (and don't moneyline parlay) college football games, especially rivalry games.
The next time you have even one 7-10 pt fav that you 'know' is going to win, pls share it with us.
Also: "If I parlay the ml's Michigan is -310 and Auburn is -350 it pays .70 on the dollar and I if tease them with 6 points it pays 1.00 on the 1.00. (lines from Canbet). I will tease that everytime and risk Auburn having to win by more than 2 and Michigan by more than 1 for the better payout." 7-10 pt favs will ALWAYS pay better on a 6-pt tease than a moneyline parlay. Its pure math. You don't have to ever bother to compare. What you do need to find out is how often 7-10 favs win, but only win by 1-2 points. Then you can figure out if its better to play a moneyline parlay or a 6-pt tease.
Bottom line remains - don't tease (and don't moneyline parlay) college football games, especially rivalry games.
It won easy guys!
Just like the last 4 weeks - This time of season is a cinch for 13 pt teasers in my
humble opinion.
Also in the NFL this last week the only team
that didn't cover 13 pts versus the line was
Denver. You could have thrown 4 darts at the teams listed this week and won! Or actually
know enough about who is playing, who is on the
bubble, who needs a must win and is going to play hard and I think between 40+ college and 16 NFL games the lines and the totals, and you have to find just 4 out of 224 options. Shouldn't be too tough I think, It is at least worth putting a couple units on!?!
Just like the last 4 weeks - This time of season is a cinch for 13 pt teasers in my
humble opinion.
Also in the NFL this last week the only team
that didn't cover 13 pts versus the line was
Denver. You could have thrown 4 darts at the teams listed this week and won! Or actually
know enough about who is playing, who is on the
bubble, who needs a must win and is going to play hard and I think between 40+ college and 16 NFL games the lines and the totals, and you have to find just 4 out of 224 options. Shouldn't be too tough I think, It is at least worth putting a couple units on!?!
In addition - I have tracked many different stats some very simple and some complex the last 3-5 seasons and I have some 95-100% 13pt situations that I play small to start and double up on the next week if I have to. Teasers for me allow me to play very stress free. I don't need to agonize over a half point or buy points. Teasing dogs in the NFL, and 12-17 pt faves in NCF, in general have been pretty safe for me. Anyone out there that likes teasers and would like to share their systems please reply. - I would appreciate hearing others ideas. Also, with more parity, the games seem to me the last 4 years to be closer in general. Closer games for TV also create better ratings, build more excitement and betting in my, again, humble opinion.
Also - to winkyduck - I have followed you for a few years now and I don't think you have been exactly setting the world on fire with your picks! Maybe you need to re-think teasers again, especially 13 pt teasers. I think one has to pretty much have their head in the sand not to be able to know enough about a decent handful of teams and know that this team or that total has a pretty good chance of covering the spread +13. One of my easy NFL plays was:
CIN/SD over 29.5 (they scored 61)
CAR +16 (they lost by 4)
MIN +2.5 (they won by 10)
and the easiest pick of the day:
BAL/SEA over 23.5 (one of my near perfect systems last 5 years) (they scored 85!)
So take heed men - you may be missing out on some very easy money or can use them to hedge in different ways and win both!
CIN/SD over 29.5 (they scored 61)
CAR +16 (they lost by 4)
MIN +2.5 (they won by 10)
and the easiest pick of the day:
BAL/SEA over 23.5 (one of my near perfect systems last 5 years) (they scored 85!)
So take heed men - you may be missing out on some very easy money or can use them to hedge in different ways and win both!
I'm also a firm believer in teasers and have much success as opposed to parlays or picking one team against the spread. Anybody who tells you teasers are dumb obviously doesn't know there head from there asshole. I do have a few stipulations though on teasers. One is to not bet much at the beginning of the season until you have a feel for how teams will play. Two is to never bet on an away team. Three is that the home team must have some incentive to win and not just show up against an inferior opponent. Those are just a few stipulations that have worked well over the years for me. You gotta Tease me to please me!
MFG - Thanks for the support - don't get me wrong I have lost a many 4tm-13pt teaser in my time so I am careful, but I have won a lot more. When I have lost a 4tm-13pter it is 95% of the time by only one of the teams missing by 1-4 pts. I play conservatively and figure if I win 65% of my teasers and risk 5-20% of my account over a week, I should make roughly 140K in 5 years wagering only 40 weeks a year for every $500 of initial bank. Compounding over time is a beautiful thing. I think a lot of beginning gamblers want to double or triple their money every week - well that is insane. You can still have fun with the action if more conservative and shoot for 3-15% a week! Millenium has -120 odds on the 4tm-13pter. They also have a lot of other teaser options with basketball as well. At this time of the year I like to find my best NFL, best NCAAF, best NBA, and best NCAAB and tease them day in day out almost and double up the next day if I need to. It has worked for me. But again be conservative, I have been a gambler for over 16 years now and I have seen it all - "Mortal Locks" turning into the biggest "Fixes of the century"!
This weekend I am playing:
OKLA -1
GA +16
DAL +18.5
CIN +16
among about a dozen others. Anyone with feedback?
Good luck all!
This weekend I am playing:
OKLA -1
GA +16
DAL +18.5
CIN +16
among about a dozen others. Anyone with feedback?
Good luck all!
