SMU +3 over Rice week 1

[GoBlue34]

Was very suprised to see this line when released. SMU (gasp can't believe I'm saying this) does have a lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball. Return a junior QB who can run and pass but dumb, very dumb. I think June Jones will work him through some of that.

First game for a new coach, I think they will be fired up and Rice will have maybe 2,000 people at the game. On top of that, Rice sucks and their defense is beyond horrible.

My first pick of the year, can't wait, less than a month away!

 

[SoonerBS]

If you think Justin Willis is dumb (and I'm inclined to agree with you), then why would you bet on him traveling to Houston the season opener to run an entirely new offense that he is likely to struggle with because of his lack of intellect?

I think this game is a play for Rice or no play at all. Rice has won 9 straight home games and they beat SMU at SMU last season. Rice is returning most of their starters on both sides of the ball and are in the second year of their new coach's system.

If anything, an OVER play may be the play since neither one of these teams will likely have a very good defense.

 

[sdf]

who is QBing for SMU? Willis returned but will he start?

SMU has to learn a new offense while Rice is now in it's 3rd year of the new spread offense (where teams generally start to flourish).

Rice returns it's QB, all it's RB and almost all of it's WRs.
SMU has ?s at QB and lost half of the WR corps and over half of their OL experience is gone.

when you do the run&shoot/spread offense, it's key to have great blocking, excellent WRs and experience at the QB. SMU has questions all over the place with this new offense and they are on the road.

you claim Rice's defense sucks, but check out hte points SMU gave up last year:

49
45
31
48
41
38
43
49
55

and June Jones isnt exactly a defensive mastermind that he's going to correct that in just a few months against a high powered offense like Rice.

SMU will definitely be better than last year, but I expect Rice to be too. dont love the pick but I cant see where taking Rice is a great bet either.

i like the OVER

 

[sdf]

Rice is returning most of their starters on both sides of the ball and are in the second year of their new coach's system.

If anything, an OVER play may be the play since neither one of these teams will likely have a very good defense.

i like the way you think :toast:

also, 2nd year of this coach, but 3rd year of these offensive system that Graham instituted before he bolted for Tulsa after 1 year at Rice

 

[hm2.0]

Basketball on grass...err, FieldTurf.

Isn't Willis still in the doghouse? I'm not so sure he gets the starting job handed to him.

Seems like a fair line to me.

 

[sdf]

Willis is off suspension but is not guaranteed to be the starter

 

[GoBlue34]

Yeah but outside of those things, SMU is the play! All good points, I just watched Rice a lot last year and lost a lot of bad games (but same could be said for SMU since they only won 1 game).

Haven't bet it yet but starting to talk myself out of it.

 

[GreenValley]

sdf

I just did a quick overview of the SMU/Rice contest. Based on the stats from last year the mathematical total for both teams this year should be about 72.

With this in mind any adjusted opinion?


Respectfully,
Green Valley

 

[clowncar]

I just did a quick overview of the SMU/Rice contest. Based on the stats from last year the mathematical total for both teams this year should be about 72.

With this in mind any adjusted opinion?


Respectfully,
Green Valley

It is rainy season in houston at that time of year. Be sure to check the weather before playing OVER a huge number.

No one has mentioned Dillard yet and he is an impossible matchup for SMU. June Jones might take this program somewhere it hasn't been since probation but it seems like lofty expectations for them to go into Rice and pull out a win in the first game , which is what is basically needed in order to cover.

 

[buddygurt]

i like rice here

 

[hanabada]

Was very suprised to see this line when released. SMU (gasp can't believe I'm saying this) does have a lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball. Return a junior QB who can run and pass but dumb, very dumb. I think June Jones will work him through some of that.

First game for a new coach, I think they will be fired up and Rice will have maybe 2,000 people at the game. On top of that, Rice sucks and their defense is beyond horrible.

My first pick of the year, can't wait, less than a month away!

If you decide to play on SMU, I would wait and see how the qb and receiver's timing goes. The first game might give SMU some glimps of what might happen during their first season, but JJ's first game in his first season at UH was a disaster. Keep in mind that they also recruited heavy on the offensive side, which is the same pattern that JJ did at HI.

JJ had a lot of success in the WAC after the SC game, and this was because many of the teams in the WAC, didn't know how to defend his offense. In his second year, his success wasn't that good as some of the defenses got better and they ended up starting a freshman QB name Timmy Chang.

I'm not sure about how talented Rice is, but if I was to place a bet I would look at Rice instead. This is because I don't think the timing and the progression of the reads will be there, especially if you say their QB is dumb. (might have a lot of interceptions) Gl though.

 

[Objection]

here's some "coachspeak" from the SMU website take it FWIW
can't narrow it down from 5 qbs 2 weeks before the first game?
I laid the 3 with Rice

"I saw improvement, but there are still a lot of mental errors. We've got to start eliminating them here in the next 10 days."
At the quarterback spot, five players - Winston Gamso, Bo Levi Mitchell, Braden Smith, Logan Turner and Justin Willis - are taking reps and Jones is not yet ready to narrow the field of competitors.
"It's hard to evaluate people when they're thinking so much. They're still learning and I'll evaluate them when I know they know what they're doing. We'll narrow it down about two weeks before the Rice game."

 

[SoonerBS]

here's some "coachspeak" from the SMU website take it FWIW
can't narrow it down from 5 qbs 2 weeks before the first game?
I laid the 3 with Rice

"I saw improvement, but there are still a lot of mental errors. We've got to start eliminating them here in the next 10 days."
At the quarterback spot, five players - Winston Gamso, Bo Levi Mitchell, Braden Smith, Logan Turner and Justin Willis - are taking reps and Jones is not yet ready to narrow the field of competitors.
"It's hard to evaluate people when they're thinking so much. They're still learning and I'll evaluate them when I know they know what they're doing. We'll narrow it down about two weeks before the Rice game."

It will take whoever wins the job about 2 years to understand the system anyway. Plus, Jones is likely to recruit a QB who will better fit his system than the guys he has by next year. Once again, I like Rice in this game.

 

[tech1515]

who is QBing for SMU? Willis returned but will he start?

SMU has to learn a new offense while Rice is now in it's 3rd year of the new spread offense (where teams generally start to flourish).

Rice returns it's QB, all it's RB and almost all of it's WRs.
SMU has ?s at QB and lost half of the WR corps and over half of their OL experience is gone.

when you do the run&shoot/spread offense, it's key to have great blocking, excellent WRs and experience at the QB. SMU has questions all over the place with this new offense and they are on the road.

you claim Rice's defense sucks, but check out hte points SMU gave up last year:

49
45
31
48
41
38
43
49
55

and June Jones isnt exactly a defensive mastermind that he's going to correct that in just a few months against a high powered offense like Rice.

SMU will definitely be better than last year, but I expect Rice to be too. dont love the pick but I cant see where taking Rice is a great bet either.

i like the OVER

Been eyeing the over since sometime in july. I agree with you. The only thing that might stop m from putting a bunch on this one is the fact the line may "over compensate" for june jones and how he can put up points. This game will have less interest than a wnba game however I do have SMU at 5 or more wins this year and this could be one of them...I just hope linemakers dont suck june jones' kahunas and make it a 58 point over

 

[clowncar]

Been eyeing the over since sometime in july. I agree with you. The only thing that might stop m from putting a bunch on this one is the fact the line may "over compensate" for june jones and how he can put up points. This game will have less interest than a wnba game however I do have SMU at 5 or more wins this year and this could be one of them...I just hope linemakers dont suck june jones' kahunas and make it a 58 point over

The total will be set WAY higher than 58

 

[AlwaysKeen]

Willis will win the job...it's good that Jones is making him compete for it...it's not Willis that is stupid, it was Phil Bennett...there was no team in the nation that caught almost every ball with their back to the defender...now you bring in Jones, a master of the vertical passing game...SMU has much more balance on offense that Rice, and they can create enough of a pass rush to bother Clement...Dillard will get his yards and a couple of TDs, but I see SMU outlasting Rice in this one...SMU +3 for me...

 

[SoonerBS]

Willis will win the job...it's good that Jones is making him compete for it...it's not Willis that is stupid, it was Phil Bennett...there was no team in the nation that caught almost every ball with their back to the defender...now you bring in Jones, a master of the vertical passing game...SMU has much more balance on offense that Rice, and they can create enough of a pass rush to bother Clement...Dillard will get his yards and a couple of TDs, but I see SMU outlasting Rice in this one...SMU +3 for me...

Wow! :shocked: I may lay off this game . . . .

 

[AlwaysKeen]

yeah soonerbs, this is actually the very first game that stuck out to me when I started to research the week one card...as you know I followed the hawaii program pretty closely and actually played on SMU quite a bit, with success two years ago...I couldn't take betting on Phil Bennett coached teams anymore and didn't lay a dime on them last year, although I saw them play about six times...this Emanual Sanders kid is comprable to Dillard and I think the Willis/ Clement matchup is a wash...the key though is that two experienced RB's return for SMU and although most people think that Jones doesn't factor the running game into their offense, he does actually...he chooses to run less, but his teams ypc are usually good, especially in the last couple of years (with IIaola especially)...the Rice defense is non-existent, and so is the SMU defense, with the exception being that their front four can generate a pass rush (vs. a one-dimensional offense)...I have already read reports this offseason where the Rice head coach admitted he did a bad job of coaching last year, and while I appreciate honesty, I don't think that's the best thing to admit publically...so you give me June Jones against an average college coach and a field goal in this one, I'm going to bite...

 

[SoonerBS]

yeah soonerbs, this is actually the very first game that stuck out to me when I started to research the week one card...as you know I followed the hawaii program pretty closely and actually played on SMU quite a bit, with success two years ago...I couldn't take betting on Phil Bennett coached teams anymore and didn't lay a dime on them last year, although I saw them play about six times...this Emanual Sanders kid is comprable to Dillard and I think the Willis/ Clement matchup is a wash...the key though is that two experienced RB's return for SMU and although most people think that Jones doesn't factor the running game into their offense, he does actually...he chooses to run less, but his teams ypc are usually good, especially in the last couple of years (with IIaola especially)...the Rice defense is non-existent, and so is the SMU defense, with the exception being that their front four can generate a pass rush (vs. a one-dimensional offense)...I have already read reports this offseason where the Rice head coach admitted he did a bad job of coaching last year, and while I appreciate honesty, I don't think that's the best thing to admit publically...so you give me June Jones against an average college coach and a field goal in this one, I'm going to bite...

I suppose I was looking more at the experience returning for Rice and the second year under their coach. I know Jones' offense is complex and I didn't give the SMU kids much of a chance in week #1. But, after seeing your points, I will not be making a play on Rice either. I will probably just lay off this bet altogether.

Thanks, Pags!

 

[AlwaysKeen]

just sharing what I know...thanks soonerbs...