I have taken this race apart peace by peace.
Only two senarios set up.
A. Smarty wins with easily or
B. Purge wins. While this horse has lost twice to Smarty J.; neither of those losses came at Belmont Park. Purge's last race was a win at mile and 1/8th over Belmont's surface. Granted this is a difference distance. One can only wonder what his tactic will be here. Do he and Smarty set-up a speed duel early and knock themselves both out.
A mile and 1/4 is a whole new ballgame. Surface is a whole new thing.