Read Wild Bill's latest article about 'wise' guys now betting NFL 'chalk' by going to the RX home page at www.theprescription.com
As the say in "BiG", "I don't get it".
I see Wild Bill trying really hard to put posts up that add value. And I give him kudos for that.
Having said that, I just don't understand his latest post. I don't understand when he says "most of the time my public guys win only 40-45% ATS". Great. We now have a 55-60% method by simply fading Wild Bill's consensus group plays. We are going to make millions. Seriously, a just hate when numbers like that get thrown out haphazardly. Probably, his group does more like 46-49% in a typical year.
Moving on, he cites his group isn't making money. Does anyone really think they are losing since they have been backing the Raiders, the Giants, the 49ers, etc. all year? The truth is that all sucker bettors pound the biggest favorite on the card. This has always been true and will continue. They have "They-are-gonna-killemitis" This group is likely getting "smoked" by laying the chalk on the teams with the best records, laying lots of points. At midseason, that was the 7-0 Chefs and the 6-0 Norsemen. They are 3-10 ATS since then. That's got to hurt. The Titans are collapsing ATS. The Cowboys are losing every week. The Panthers are in a free fall. The Eagles are rolling, but the public dumped them early from their bad start, and are just now backing them.........look for them and NE to start disappointing.
Wild Bill can ask his group who they like this week, but I already know.
Denver, KC, and whatever team lines up opposite the Arizona Cardinals and Oakland Raiders.
I see Wild Bill trying really hard to put posts up that add value. And I give him kudos for that.
Having said that, I just don't understand his latest post. I don't understand when he says "most of the time my public guys win only 40-45% ATS". Great. We now have a 55-60% method by simply fading Wild Bill's consensus group plays. We are going to make millions. Seriously, a just hate when numbers like that get thrown out haphazardly. Probably, his group does more like 46-49% in a typical year.
Moving on, he cites his group isn't making money. Does anyone really think they are losing since they have been backing the Raiders, the Giants, the 49ers, etc. all year? The truth is that all sucker bettors pound the biggest favorite on the card. This has always been true and will continue. They have "They-are-gonna-killemitis" This group is likely getting "smoked" by laying the chalk on the teams with the best records, laying lots of points. At midseason, that was the 7-0 Chefs and the 6-0 Norsemen. They are 3-10 ATS since then. That's got to hurt. The Titans are collapsing ATS. The Cowboys are losing every week. The Panthers are in a free fall. The Eagles are rolling, but the public dumped them early from their bad start, and are just now backing them.........look for them and NE to start disappointing.
Wild Bill can ask his group who they like this week, but I already know.
Denver, KC, and whatever team lines up opposite the Arizona Cardinals and Oakland Raiders.
Fez I did the math, 41.4% last year and 45.5% the year before. The plays I actually go against, the ones where they all like a side are 13-21 in about 4 years.
I don't agree with your point Fez. My assessment of the "squares" and the view of the sports book personnel I talk with is that big favorites are getting more "smart money" than ever, but almost all of it was early season. Last month or so the Chiefs, Panthers, and to a degree Vikings were getting the money from the public and they have been losing. My thesis is that these teams were "sniffed out" as live teams to start the year by the smart money while they aren't the most public teams on the board. After they got to lofty records, the squares got on them and then drove the prices to where the smart money has started showing on their opponents on a regular basis. So what you say is exactly what I am saying. Maybe the title Charlie gave to my article was a bit misleading, but essentially my belief is this year the favorites were getting more action than normal from the smart money early on. Therefore all the comments that were here for much of the season about how the squares had to be way ahead and how the books were getting killed may not have necessarily been all that true. Now as the season has sifted out a bit, the public has decided on who they like, the favorites and so as we end the season if the favorites do cover a lot then maybe the statments you see on this board will be true.
I don't agree with your point Fez. My assessment of the "squares" and the view of the sports book personnel I talk with is that big favorites are getting more "smart money" than ever, but almost all of it was early season. Last month or so the Chiefs, Panthers, and to a degree Vikings were getting the money from the public and they have been losing. My thesis is that these teams were "sniffed out" as live teams to start the year by the smart money while they aren't the most public teams on the board. After they got to lofty records, the squares got on them and then drove the prices to where the smart money has started showing on their opponents on a regular basis. So what you say is exactly what I am saying. Maybe the title Charlie gave to my article was a bit misleading, but essentially my belief is this year the favorites were getting more action than normal from the smart money early on. Therefore all the comments that were here for much of the season about how the squares had to be way ahead and how the books were getting killed may not have necessarily been all that true. Now as the season has sifted out a bit, the public has decided on who they like, the favorites and so as we end the season if the favorites do cover a lot then maybe the statments you see on this board will be true.
