Smart-moneypicks.com BIGTIME BOWL WINNERS

[BigTymePlayer25]

Boys! I am going to be posting my bowl selections in this thread for FREE this year! This is my 1st year online, even though I've been running a service for over 8 years! I've done quite well this season in both the NFL and College football. Overall this year I have went 57-29 (66%). Check out my site at:

http://smart-moneypicks.com

or

http://shop.smart-moneypicks.com


Feel free to email me with questions at

man2j@mtsu.edu

Good luck this bowl season!

Plays will be posted for the weekend here shortly!

Merry Christmas everyone!

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

Las Vegas Bowl WINNER

4* Arizona Wildcats -3

- I love Arizona in this match-up! QB Willie Tuitama was up-and-down this season, but he really came into his own during the Wildcats last few games (especially against arch rival Arizona State). Tuitama threw for 27 TDs and over 2700 yards this season.

- Arizona will have the edge in many categories in this game. Arizona's edge on 3rd down defense is HUGE. The Wildcats only allow a conversion % of 32.7% (while BYU allows 44.6% of 3rd downs to be converted). The Wilcats also have a much better pass defense (170ypg passing vs 206ypg passing)

- Arizona has an advantage in 10 statistical categories ( vs only 4 stat edges for BYU)

- Arizona also has the motivational edge IMO. They are playing in their 1st bowl in a decade, whereas BYU has played in this same bowl game for 4 yrs straight. I gotta think Coach Mike Stoops will get his boys raring to go for this one!

Final Score

Arizona 35

BYU 24

Lay the points with confidence in this one boys!!!

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

2* New Orleans Bowl Winner

2* Troy -4.5

- I really wish we could have pounded this when it opened at -3 but I still feel there is some value with the Trojans in this match-up.

- Troy has the edge in 10 statistical categories (not too mention the better defense with double the amt of sacks that So Miss has)

- Troy is simply the better team here, while So Miss is playing with a new head coach and is probably just happy to be in a bowl game. Troy has been a dominating program for years, yet they have flown under the radar. My numbers have Troy winning by a little more than a TD. Lay the points once again boys!

Final Score:

Troy 38

USM 27

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

St Pete Bowl

2* Memphis Tigers +11.5

- Thanks to the early sharps we again missed out on some value here. I would have loved to have gotten this game at +14 when it came out. However (like with Troy) I still feel there is plenty of value left.

- I know Memphis played one of the worst schedules the country. However, USF is going to be very disappointed and disinterested in this game. USF was favored to go to a BCS Bowl for the Big East Conference, but their season did not go so well. I like QB Matt Grothe as a playmaker, but he is too jeckle and hyde to put money on. You never know what you are getting with Grothe (he will either throw 5 Tds or 5 Ints).

- I just believe Memphis will be fired up just to be in a bowl game this season. I don't think they will win but I do see the Tigers keeping this one close enough to cover the spread for us!

Final Score

USF 42

Memphis 34

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

I am passing on the Navy / WF game and the Fresno / Colorado St game. There is just no value in either game IMO

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

Poinsettia Bowl (5* Winner)

5* TCU Horned Frogs -3

- This will be one of my biggest bowl plays this season. Just like our 4* pick on Arizona cashed easily, I believe this one will as well. I love Boise State and do believe they are a legitimately good football team. However, I just don't see them scoring very much at all against this TOP-NOTCH TCU DEFENSE!

- TCU has the edge in 11 statistical categories, while Boise only has the edge in 5 categories. TCU has a HUGE edge in 3rd down conversion %, and they convert 6 more 1st downs per game than Boise. TCU has the edge in practically every defensive category. The Frogs allow only 47 yards per game on the ground, and only 166 yards passing.

- TCU also has the better red zone offense (which will surprise many people). They average 5.5 points per trip to the redzone.

- TCU also has a better turnover margin, as they were +13 this year, while Boise was +7.

Bottom line:

We are taking the better team, with the superior defense and running game at a very low price due to the public's fasicination with Boise. Lay the points with confidence boys!

TCU 30

Boise 20

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

Hawaii Bowl Selection

2* Notre Dame Fighting Irish -2

- I'm a self-confessed lifetime Irish-hater, however I see too much value to pass up in this ball game. People are giving Hawaii too much respect here. Everyone forgets that 4 of Hawaii's wins this year were CUPCAKE victories over teams like Weber St, Wash St, Idaho, and New Mex St. Good grief that is some God-awful teams!

- The motivation edge has to go to Notre Dame here. All these kids have heard the last few weeks is how ND has not won a bowl game in a million years. I expect the Irish to be able to physically dominate the Warriors in this one.

- Key Stat: Notre Dame's offense (though putrid at times) averaged nearly 19 first downs per game, while Hawaii's offense only averaged a little over 14 first downs per game.

- Notre Dame also has a huge edge in pass defense. The Irish surrender 185 ypg through the air, while Hawaii gives up 204 ypg passing.

- Hawaii is penalized nearly TWICE AS MUCH as Notre Dame!

As much as it pains me and my Irish-hater up-bringing i'm taking Notre Dame to win and cover!

Notre Dame 31

Hawaii 23

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

Motor City Bowl Play

2* C. Michigan Chippewas -7 (-105)

- I think the Chips get it done in what is a home game for them. Honestly, how many fans at this game will be cheering for Fla Atl??? 20 maybe, and that's just because the players have family members traveling to the game!

- Florida Atl has had 4 starters suspended for this game due to poor academics. 2 starting linemen, a starting linebacker and their starting kicker. This gives a huge edge to the C Michigan D-line as they should be able to put pressure on Rusty Smith. Also, Fla Atl does not have a reliable back-up at kicker, which could cost them dearly!

- DAN LEVEFOUR ..... I just don't think the putrid Owl defense will be able to stop such a dual threat, who can beat them with his arm or his legs!

- Huge edge for the Chips on 3rd down offense and 1st downs per game, as well as passing offense!!!

- Central Michigan also has a better TO margin (+4) vs Fla Atl (-9)

- Central Michigan is also less penalized and has nearly triple the amt of sacks that Fla Atl does.

Bottom line: We are taking the better offensive and defensive team, who is playing at home! Lay the wood boys!

CMU 38

FAU 27

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

Had Winners on 2* UNC +2 , 3* Miami +10, and 2* La Tech -2 over the holiday weekend....had losers on 2* Wisconsin +7

Bowl Record to date: 5-5 (-1.3 units)

Time to get this thing turned around!

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

Papajohns Bowl EASY WINNER

5* Rutgers Scarlet Knights -6.5

Everyone has fallen in love with NC State and Russell Wilson because they have been HOT the last few games of the season. However, what people fail to realize is that Rutgers and Mike Teel have been even HOTTER! I'm on RUTGERS for the following reasons:

1) I use a 20 part statistical analysis system to formulate my picks. Using this system, Rutgers has the edge in 13 statistical breakdowns, whereas NC St only has the edge in 3 categories (and 4 categories were relatively even). The only thing I dont like about Rutgers is their strength of schedule, which is 67th vs NC State's 3rd. Nevertheless, I believe Rutgers is the superior team on both sides of the ball today.

2) Rutgers owns a huge edge on both 3rd down offense and 3rd down defense. Rutgers converts 3rd downs at a 41% clip, while NC St converts at less than 37%. On 3rd down defense, Rutgers only allows opponents a 31% conversion rate, whereas NC St allows opponents to convert at a 40% clip. 3rd downs are the key to winning, and Rutgers should own NC State in this category

3) HUGE EDGE for Rutgers on 1st Down Defense. NC St gives opponents 21 first downs per game, while Rutgers gives up just 13.8 1st downs per game.

4) MIKE TEEL: This kid has had a roller coaster type of season, but I see him picking apart this awful Wolfpack secondary today. I look for Teel to throw for at least 4 TDs in what should be an easy win and cover. Lay the points and watch the Scarlet Knights get the cash!!

Rutgers 42

NC St 24

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

awful loss with Rutgers yesterday, losing by the hook thanks to a missed extra point!!! Luckily most of our members got -6 so they pushed....had a nice 3* on Northwestern +14 but still a frustrating day!


Bowl Record: 6-6 (-3.8 units)

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

Humanitarian Bowl Play

3*NEVADA WOLFPACK -2.5

Reasons:
1) Nevada is the more motivated team in this match-up. Maryland is just glad to get the season over with.

2) Nevada has a huge statistical edge in both rushing offense and rushing defense

3) Nevada has a much better turnover margin (+2) than Maryland (-8)

4) Nevada gets more pressure on the QB than Maryland, as they have 35.5 sacks compared to Maryland's 25

Take the better, more motivated team and get the cash
Lay the small number!



Nevada 31
Maryland 20

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

Holiday Bowl Play

2* Oregon Ducks +3

I see that there are still a few +3's out there, but buy it to +3 if you have to. I'm playing the Ducks for the following reasons:

1) The Ducks are the superior running team in this game. Both teams run the ball well, but Oregon averages 6.1 yds per carry and 278 yds per game, while Ok St averages 5.6 yds per carry and 256 yds per game.

2) Oregon stops the run much better than Ok St. The Ducks only allow 3.1 yards per carry, while Ok St allows 4 yds per carry.

3) QB Pressure: Oregon has more than triple the amount of sacks than Ok St (36 sacks to just 13 for Ok St).

Bottom Line: We're getting the better rushing team, with the better rushing defense, getting points. Take the points here boys!

Oregon 42

OSU 38

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

Nevada sucked ass....but the Ducks came through in the 2nd half and I also had another 3* on Rice right before game time!

Bowl Record: 8-7 (-2.1 units)

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

New Years Eve Bowl Picks

4* Georgia Tech -4

3* Oregon St -1

2* BC UNDER 41

2* Minny +8

2* Air Force +4.5

1* Vandy +5.5




:cripwalk:

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

4* Georgia Tech -4 LOSS

3* Oregon St -1 WIN

2* BC UNDER 41 WIN

2* Minny +8 LOSS

2* Air Force +4.5 LOSS

1* Vandy +5.5 WIN

3-3 -2.8

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

New Years Day

3* Nebraska +110 WIN

3* Iowa -4 WIN

2* Penn St +10 LOSS

1* Michigan St +10 LOSS

1* Va Tech +110 WIN

3-2 +4.2 units

:grandmais

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

BOWL RECORD: 14-12 -0.7 units

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

JAN 2nd

4*OLE MISS +4.5

2* ECU / KENTUCKY UNDER 42

1* ECU -3

1* BAMA -6 (1st half)

:fckmad: