Slow to change line! take advantage at the greek KErry still +170

[trytrytry]

Even Pinny has Bush -169.

but the greek has been slow or forgot on a busy day to drop the price on KErry.

He is still there at +170. and you can put a bunch on this prop. this is a huge overlay in a dead heat blanket finish.

especially with more debates to come.

Greek being kind on us for a change.

 

[hanover00]

It's not as big a bargain as you might think. Based on the political futures markets, you might be getting about 15 cents of value at +170.

 

[trytrytry]

ive been told by people who know that Bush has a 50-55% chance of winning.

so the value is there. its really there. big overlay.

 

[Redneckman]

Nobody "knows" that Bush has a 50-55% chance of winning. Too much can happen between now and the election.

 

[RPM]

if you look at the states bush already "has" and the states he is expected to win, kerry has very little chance of winning.

if bush gets ohio, and or pennsylvania, its a done deal.

 

[wilheim]

Just a FYI - if this turns into a political namecalling debate then it will have to be moved to politics. Talk about odds, percententages or things like ROI. etc etc. fine with me. I think everyone knows what I mean.


Thanks, wil.

 

[TommyMullins]

From A Gaming Standpoint There Is Good Value On A Dog Like That. But Realistically Kerry Has No Shot; Betting Him Would Be Like Throwing Away Money.

 

[D2bets]

Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio...

Whoever wins 2 of these 3 is your next President (Ok, let's say to a 95% certainty). Simple as that. The rest is mostly theater. Neither candidate will reach 300 EV's. It will be tight.

Kerry at +200 was solid value. +170 is pretty good value as well. I expect to see Bush at -130 to -150 in the final weeks.

On the fundamental side, watch for who is able to frame the debate. Neither candidate really wants it about themself (sad political commentary, but it is what it is). Bush wants it about Kerry's character and Kerry wants it about Bush's failures. My sense is still that in the end it comes down to whether or not to re-elect the incumbent, but if Bush is able to push Kerry's flaws hard enough then that may carry the day. But that's the dynamic here IMO.

Was that "non-political" enough?

 

[michael777]

betting on kerry is not gambling,it is stealing money,he is a LOCK,YES,I SAID IT...LOCK

 

[D2bets]

From A Gaming Standpoint There Is Good Value On A Dog Like That. But Realistically Kerry Has No Shot; Betting Him Would Be Like Throwing Away Money.

Tommy, I don't understand this. If he has no shot then he has no value, dog or not (unless you're talking about arbitraging). The fact is he obviously does have a shot. The question is whether he has better than the 61-63% or so chance that the market is currently figuring.

 

[Hitman26]

From A Gaming Standpoint There Is Good Value On A Dog Like That. But Realistically Kerry Has No Shot; Betting Him Would Be Like Throwing Away Money.




Ok Tommy what would be the proper value to take Kerry (for you)? If Kerry were +500 would you take a shot then? +1000? What would the price have to be before you would consider laying money on Kerry?



Thanks
Hitman
<!-- / message -->

 

[TommyMullins]

I Love Getting Plus Money. Maybe Value Wasnt The Right Word. I Will Blindly Bet A Lot Of Stuff Like The Mayorga Fight Last Night When I See Plus-160 Or More. I Was Simply Trying To Caution People That Bush Will Win Handily And A Bet On Kerry Is A Waste Of Money.

 

[SportSavant]

http://getupandvote.com/vote/index.php

 

[dantheman77406642]

Kerrys Going DOWWWWWWNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

:finger:

Put a hat on Kerry and dress him in Black and he looks like Abe Lincoln- or a cross between Gentle Abe and Jay Leno