It is a tough assignment, but a noted assignement to somehow gather this info from several sources and post it here for our posters to use as they see fit. It is very good info to have. How great it would be if we could get every advertiser to post this info. Everyone has their own plan and if it is winning one money, then it is Gold. I have used Slims info for more wins than losses, but I do not track his posts. Just not enough time in the day, but I can see where Slim is cominig from. From where he sits and looks down the row of customer lifetime balances, he sees a big percentage with a (minus) balance.
WL is good, Carib is good, Sportsbook.com is good. This is the best NFL consensus I've found, no money involved which, to me, is a more accurate read of the "true square". Anyone else use this one?
http://nflpicks.bman.com/pickingstats.cfm
http://nflpicks.bman.com/pickingstats.cfm
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width=450 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=left>Indianapolis</TD><TD align=middle>59</TD><TD align=left>-7</TD><TD align=left>Detroit</TD><TD align=middle>7</TD></TR><TR><TD></TD><TD align=left>Indianapolis</TD><TD align=middle>44</TD><TD align=left>-7.5</TD><TD align=left>Detroit</TD><TD align=middle>11</TD></TR><TR><TD></TD><TD align=left>Indianapolis</TD><TD align=middle>102</TD><TD align=left>-8.5</TD><TD align=left>Detroit</TD><TD align=middle>38</TD></TR><TR><TD></TD><TD align=left>Indianapolis</TD><TD align=middle>61</TD><TD align=left>-9</TD><TD align=left>Detroit</TD><TD align=middle>39</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f0f0f0><TD align=left>Consensus</TD><TD align=left>Indianapolis</TD><TD align=middle>266</TD><TD align=left></TD><TD align=left>Detroit</TD><TD align=middle>95</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
This, and DB Bob Sanders for the Colts is OUT for this game.
This, and DB Bob Sanders for the Colts is OUT for this game.
ROB- I would hastily disagree with you.RobFunk said:
If strictly used for the NFL.......this is a goldmine.
Hint- Make sure you click on the DETAILS of each and every game to make sure the proper lines were used for the majority of the selections.
ps- You and I have to have a long discussion someday.........you seem like a nice kid............plus, your a member of Red Sox Nation.
What do you guys think. On the 70% and above games. How much is that public line inflated? What then is the "True" line and what is the bonus value. Then what percentage of games fall within that bonus line value margin so that it makes a difference one way or the other?WEEKENDALKI said:
Do you guys agree that over time the only value in this comes from winning the games that were inflated by the Square action.
LEts say Pitt - 10 1/2 is a 70% play for the public.
Slim system play is then Washington.
Washington loses by 3 in OT.
Public loses Slim system wins! great
But we all know that the true line for this matchup if played 100 times is not 3 1/2 points. If that was the line for some strange reason then every Sharp power ranking would flood on Pitt obviously and would have lost. So in that case there is no positive or negative on the Public play, the game just came in one way or the other.
Now if Pitt wins by 10 that might be a different story, here you could argue that the 70% action took a line that should be 9 if played 100 times and was 10 1/2 and the public still bet it. The value was 1 1/2 points! and it hit.
So what % of the time does that happen?
Here's an "off the top" Rob. With the WL lopsided plays, let's use 65% plus. Each day, track each play from each sport on a spreadsheet. Do this just for plays that are lopsided with the figure you use. (Try 65%). Now each day you will track the results simply by recording whether the team being picked at 65% covered or not. Do with sides. Do with totals. As time goes, you will see things that make sense. You will establish points in which you see a significant edge just by playing on or off a trend. I don't think it will take you long to see the advantages and after a few years you will even just FEEL IT. I know what I am talking about. Do you track any ATS records or cap cappers? In both instances you will find prime opportunities to fade or ride. As you know, in life, it is hard for many to really have a good work ethic. Not saying you do not, but the majority does not. That rolls over to handicapping as well. Most do not take the time to try and come up with plans and data that will help them because it takes a few minutes a day and they just don't have that desire to really learn. Think about what Tate is doing in NBA or Mike Chad or player1 or Zapster. These guys will win money. One trend that was posted the other day was this.
Last season in the NBA a team coming of a 20 point loss covered a game in the next 4 games with a record of 123-2 I think. This same theory was successful for the last 3 years according to the poster with a profit of 60 plus units each year. Look at the edge you have knowing this when you see it.
I am spent on this post and there are 100's of systems like this that use a fade factor. Sytems that work yr end and yr out, but there are players who will never know because they are to close minded to seek and learn or understand. Not you in particular, but you see what I mean I hope.
Last season in the NBA a team coming of a 20 point loss covered a game in the next 4 games with a record of 123-2 I think. This same theory was successful for the last 3 years according to the poster with a profit of 60 plus units each year. Look at the edge you have knowing this when you see it.
I am spent on this post and there are 100's of systems like this that use a fade factor. Sytems that work yr end and yr out, but there are players who will never know because they are to close minded to seek and learn or understand. Not you in particular, but you see what I mean I hope.
