There is absolutley no comparison between a free half point and reduced vig. Shrink are you serious?
Reduced vig is a 100% thing, that means it is to the players' advantage each and every game. A free half point is totally meaningless at least 80% of the time. I say 87%, but I actually have the numbers to back it up.
Not to mention I think to qualify for that extra half point you need to have an upgraded account.
Add in that they manipulate lines so that for the most part that "free" half point is meaningless, because you can get it somewhere else anyways (for free), and it shows how meaningless thathalf point really is.
I am amazed as some of the stuff I read on this site sometimes, that comes out of peoples keyboards. I guess a lot of people on here fall into that category that the "Do The Math" piece were describing.
On ML dogs alone Pinnacle would more than make up for some imaginary half point. Not to mention the 3 cents you save on every winning bet you make on the spreads.
Reduced vig is a 100% thing, that means it is to the players' advantage each and every game. A free half point is totally meaningless at least 80% of the time. I say 87%, but I actually have the numbers to back it up.
Not to mention I think to qualify for that extra half point you need to have an upgraded account.
Add in that they manipulate lines so that for the most part that "free" half point is meaningless, because you can get it somewhere else anyways (for free), and it shows how meaningless thathalf point really is.
I am amazed as some of the stuff I read on this site sometimes, that comes out of peoples keyboards. I guess a lot of people on here fall into that category that the "Do The Math" piece were describing.
On ML dogs alone Pinnacle would more than make up for some imaginary half point. Not to mention the 3 cents you save on every winning bet you make on the spreads.
The Math:
For 100 bets @500 per bet at a minimal 53% win rate.
At Sky Book Record is 530-470
530 * (500/1.10) = 240909.10
470 * 500 = 235000.00
Total profits: 5909.10
For Pinnacle
530 * (500/1.07) = 247663.60
470 * 500 = 235000.00
Total profits: 12663.55
Total Profit differential Pin is a +6754.45
That is basically a differentail of 7 games. So for Skybook to be comparible to Pin or any reduced vig book, you would have to get 7 games out of 1000 where that half point does come into play.
So maybe it isn't as extreme as I thought. But at best they would have to be a specialized book where you would only bet games lined at -3,(that you liked the fave in) and make them all -2.5. That is pretty much the only situation where the advantage is constant enough to make them worthwhile.
WHile it isn't worth it to buy off 3 for the juice they charge at other places (IF they allow it at all) it is worth the 3 cents.
But again I am not familiar with how you get that free half point, and what kind of stipulations they put on it.
But for any other bets, there is absolutley no comparison.
For 100 bets @500 per bet at a minimal 53% win rate.
At Sky Book Record is 530-470
530 * (500/1.10) = 240909.10
470 * 500 = 235000.00
Total profits: 5909.10
For Pinnacle
530 * (500/1.07) = 247663.60
470 * 500 = 235000.00
Total profits: 12663.55
Total Profit differential Pin is a +6754.45
That is basically a differentail of 7 games. So for Skybook to be comparible to Pin or any reduced vig book, you would have to get 7 games out of 1000 where that half point does come into play.
So maybe it isn't as extreme as I thought. But at best they would have to be a specialized book where you would only bet games lined at -3,(that you liked the fave in) and make them all -2.5. That is pretty much the only situation where the advantage is constant enough to make them worthwhile.
WHile it isn't worth it to buy off 3 for the juice they charge at other places (IF they allow it at all) it is worth the 3 cents.
But again I am not familiar with how you get that free half point, and what kind of stipulations they put on it.
But for any other bets, there is absolutley no comparison.
Well then it is basically meaning less then.
I would have to look up hoops results.
But again it would have to be a specialized spot, and I am not aware of any in basketball that come up consistantly enough to make it worth it.
BTW, I was going to add that there are an ave of 7 pushes per year in foots. That is a static line, so it could be as high as 12 at some places and as low as 4 at others. Obviously the more outs the less likelihood of a push.
Depending on how prolific a bettor and how many bets you make. That could maybe be two years of football (1000 bets) So basically with those returns you would have to hit half the pushes to make it a break even prop.
I would have to look up hoops results.
But again it would have to be a specialized spot, and I am not aware of any in basketball that come up consistantly enough to make it worth it.
BTW, I was going to add that there are an ave of 7 pushes per year in foots. That is a static line, so it could be as high as 12 at some places and as low as 4 at others. Obviously the more outs the less likelihood of a push.
Depending on how prolific a bettor and how many bets you make. That could maybe be two years of football (1000 bets) So basically with those returns you would have to hit half the pushes to make it a break even prop.
Actually it is even less meaningless in the NBA, Since the 1999 season, there have been 92 pushes in 5945 games, roughly a 1.5% chance of a push.
While in football there is a 2.5 to 3% chance of a push.
So your chances of getting a push in the NBA are almost half that of getting one in the NFL.
See, this is actually one spot where math might be helpful in handicapping. Again, it is all theory, and years vary from year to year. But knowing how much you make at one ine, and how much you make at another can tell you just how meaningful anything that is "free" is.
While in football there is a 2.5 to 3% chance of a push.
So your chances of getting a push in the NBA are almost half that of getting one in the NFL.
See, this is actually one spot where math might be helpful in handicapping. Again, it is all theory, and years vary from year to year. But knowing how much you make at one ine, and how much you make at another can tell you just how meaningful anything that is "free" is.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by wantitall4moi:
Actually it is even less meaningless in the NBA, Since the 1999 season, there have been 92 pushes in 5945 games, roughly a 1.5% chance of a push.
While in football there is a 2.5 to 3% chance of a push.
So your chances of getting a push in the NBA are almost half that of getting one in the NFL.
See, this is actually one spot where math might be helpful in handicapping. Again, it is all theory, and years vary from year to year. But knowing how much you make at one ine, and how much you make at another can tell you just how meaningful anything that is "free" is. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
how many of those pushes in foots are on the 3 and 7? i bet most of them.
i like the 1/2 point in college hoops and nba totals.
Actually it is even less meaningless in the NBA, Since the 1999 season, there have been 92 pushes in 5945 games, roughly a 1.5% chance of a push.
While in football there is a 2.5 to 3% chance of a push.
So your chances of getting a push in the NBA are almost half that of getting one in the NFL.
See, this is actually one spot where math might be helpful in handicapping. Again, it is all theory, and years vary from year to year. But knowing how much you make at one ine, and how much you make at another can tell you just how meaningful anything that is "free" is. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
how many of those pushes in foots are on the 3 and 7? i bet most of them.
i like the 1/2 point in college hoops and nba totals.
With the half point special not being allowed for NFL 3 and 7, I'd say (in general) this offering has more value for NBA sides. The more common margins of victory in the NBA (7 is the most common) are worth about 8 to 9 cents on or off the number. Sometimes a Pinnacle number will be best; sometimes a Skybook number (with the free half point) will be best. For example, let's say an NBA line is -7 everywhere with it being -7 -105 at Pinnacle. Getting -6.5 -110 with the free half point is better than -7 -105 in this case. And that's pretty much what it comes down to in every case: knowing what a half point is worth for each number in each sport and subsequently getting the best value.
Hope lurkerforages and/or Fezzik chime in as I've found them to be the most knowledgeable on this site when it comes to knowing the value of points.
Hope lurkerforages and/or Fezzik chime in as I've found them to be the most knowledgeable on this site when it comes to knowing the value of points.
Blue
I don't have all the numbers here. But it is right around 75% of the pushes are on those two numbers. Since 1998 there have been 49 pushes. Of those pretty sure 32 were on 3, and I think 6 or 7 were on the 7. I know that isn't 75%, but it also is only 6 seasons. I have numbers back to 1985. But not here in Cal, and my memory isn't that good. The numbers listed above are actually guesses, but pretty close.
I don't have all the numbers here. But it is right around 75% of the pushes are on those two numbers. Since 1998 there have been 49 pushes. Of those pretty sure 32 were on 3, and I think 6 or 7 were on the 7. I know that isn't 75%, but it also is only 6 seasons. I have numbers back to 1985. But not here in Cal, and my memory isn't that good. The numbers listed above are actually guesses, but pretty close.
Value of points/half points are relative to how often they occur at that particular number. While 7 is a number that hits a lot, how often does it hit when it is lined at -7?
That is the only way to figure it. And agian, even then it is theroy as there is no way to say which -7 lines were mre "accurate" than other -7 lines.
Sometimes a team will be hedged up to simply inflate a ML. Especially in the NBA. I have seen a lot of -7 faves that had no business being -7, but to keep the ML high enough to keep people off it they had to hedge it up alittle.
I don't bet the NBA much anymore because for the most part it is unbettable. I wait for the play offs and beat up the series prices they post. Is a lor more profittable that way.
That is the only way to figure it. And agian, even then it is theroy as there is no way to say which -7 lines were mre "accurate" than other -7 lines.
Sometimes a team will be hedged up to simply inflate a ML. Especially in the NBA. I have seen a lot of -7 faves that had no business being -7, but to keep the ML high enough to keep people off it they had to hedge it up alittle.
I don't bet the NBA much anymore because for the most part it is unbettable. I wait for the play offs and beat up the series prices they post. Is a lor more profittable that way.
A free half point book would be a nice compliment to Pinnacle.
Most of these offers from different shops are only great deals when used in conjunction with other books.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>
Reduced vig is a 100% thing, that means it is to the players' advantage each and every game. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Many new players go to Pinnacle for their one and only book because they hear about the cheap prices. There is a good chance they will be betting on chalk at -120 not wanting to pass on a game they spent time capping.
Players need at least one other (and different) option.
Most of these offers from different shops are only great deals when used in conjunction with other books.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>
Reduced vig is a 100% thing, that means it is to the players' advantage each and every game. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Many new players go to Pinnacle for their one and only book because they hear about the cheap prices. There is a good chance they will be betting on chalk at -120 not wanting to pass on a game they spent time capping.
Players need at least one other (and different) option.
