Sixth Year Seniors bowl plays

[achandicap]

Here's the pre-Christmas set of bowl plays.

La-Lafayette -1/Nevada
Utah -3/Colorado State
South Alabama -2.5/Bowling Green
San Diego State -2.5/Navy

 

[BigdaddyQH]

I am amazed that the line for the Lafayette-Nevada game has not significantly moved off of it's PK to -1 either way (depending on your book) status. Lafayette is playing what amounts to a home game and has won the last three New Orleans Junior Bowl Games.

I also agree with the Utah play. They played a much more difficult schedule.

 

[sendacash]

That Nevada vs UL Laffy line is interesting, I think there is some HFA built into that line. Can't say I have a great # on either of these teams as they have both been somewhat disappointing on the season, finishing lower in my power ratings than what they began the season, more so with Laffy. I think Nevada certainly has a higher power rating and better SOS as well and it looks like bet % are split somewhat evenly. Hard to ignore that location for UL though and their past history in this bowl.

 

[GoSooners]

I think the oddsmakers have over compensated for the ULL home team advantage. If you put these teams on a neutral field out west Nevada would probably be somewhere around a 6 point favorite.

 

[sendacash]

Yeah my number would be Nevada by 6 on a completely neutral field, but like I said I don't really trust my numbers on these bottom feeder conferences like the SBC or MAC. If anything I look a the numbers in terms of the teams to stay away from, which should not be as much of a concern in the bowl season. What about the coaching match-up here, what do people think of Brian Polian as a coach? Looks like this will be his first bowl game, while Hudspeth is now a well regarded veteran coach as far as I know.

 

[achandicap]

Granted this is now hindsight, but a big reason I made this play was because of the start time and location. Not only did Lafayette have a semi-home game, it started at 9 a.m. Reno time. Even though the players were in Louisiana for a while, that early start had to mess with their preparations.

By the way, one of the bet stats of this bowl season is about San Diego State. Rocky Long is 10-1 ATS and straight up against option-based teams.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

So is your best play of the bowl season San Diego St?

 

[achandicap]

I liked Utah the most of those four plays, but none are my best play. I really like Rutgers/North Carolina O66.5, and would love Penn State if that number gets to +3. If it doesn't, I'll probably play Penn State money line.

 

[achandicap]

Games through December 27
Rutgers/North Carolina O66.5
Central Florida -2.5/North Carolina State
Duke +7.5/Arizona State
Penn State +2.5/Boston College
USC -7/Nebraska

 

[packer2012]

I liked Utah the most of those four plays, but none are my best play. I really like Rutgers/North Carolina O66.5, and would love Penn State if that number gets to +3. If it doesn't, I'll probably play Penn State money line.

People say some of the damnedest things on here?

 

[TheComputerGroup]

I liked Utah the most of those four plays, but none are my best play. I really like Rutgers/North Carolina O66.5, and would love Penn State if that number gets to +3. If it doesn't, I'll probably play Penn State money line.

Utah was a good play.......I just played Penn St ML.....like the play, good luck with all your plays!

 

[achandicap]

Packer: I meant to say, if Penn State gets to +3 then it becomes a big play for me. I'm playing a small bet on them money line regardless.

 

[achandicap]

Rest of the bowls
TCU -3/Mississsippi
Boise State +3/Arizona
Baylor -2.5/Michigan State
Oregon -10/Florida State
Pittsburgh/Houston O53.5
Kansas State +1.5/UCLA

 

[achandicap]

Also, Penn State hit +3 about an hour ago. Now it's a big play.