He gives out 1 free game and caps the night games....here they are this week!
WEEK FOUR BEST BETS
YTD 14-5 +25.40%
3% SAN FRANCISCO +3.5
3% KANSAS CITY +5.5
3% ST LOUIS/SAN FRANCISCO OVER 44
<HR color=#c0c0c0 SIZE=1>PITTSBURGH –5 Cincinnati 38.5
6-3-1/4-6-0 15.4-18.7
I’ve been saying all year that Cincinnati might be the most overrated team and they have done nothing to change my mind so far. The Bengal’s are 1-2 only because they were allowed to play an inept offense in Miami and they should have lost that game. Their defense is allowing 5.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.1yps against 5.4yps and 5.9yppl against 4.8yppl. That doesn’t bode well for Cincinnati when facing a Steeler’s offense, which is averaging 3.7ypr against 3.7ypr, 6.0yps against 5.5yps and 4.8yppl against 4.7yppl. The Steeler’s above average defense shouldn’t have any problems shutting down the below average Bengal’s offense. Pittsburgh is allowing just 3.1ypr against 3.9ypr, 5.6yps against 5.4yps and 4.3yppl against 4.7yppl. For Cincinnati, they are averaging just 3.8ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.1yps against 5.5yps and 4.6yppl against 4.8yppl. Cincinnati does qualify in a solid bounce back situation, which is 112-61-5 but Pittsburgh qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 534-411-33, including the best subset of that situation, which is 139-61-7 and won with Baltimore over Cincinnati last week. Final numbers project Pittsburgh by eight points and 12.5 points. Final total projects about 43 points, which would lean towards the over. The situation Pittsburgh qualifies in is stronger and the value lies with them. I think this is an easy call. I don’t have enough to make the play but Pittsburgh is the obvious choice here. PITTSBURGH 27 CINCINNATI 17
St Louis –3.5 SAN FRANCISCO 44
3-7-0/5-5-0 17.9-29.8
Oh, our beloved Rams. I love teams like this because they produce high octane offenses and poor defenses, which allow us to swoop on in and take advantage of the people who love high octane offenses with no defenses. The Rams offense has been solid, averaging 4.7ypr against 4.5ypr, 6.8yps against 6.2yps and 6.1yppl against 5.4yppl. They’ll face a 49ers defense, which has been very solid against the rush, allowing just 2.9ypr against 4.2ypr. The Rams should be able to take advantage of the below average 49ers pass defense, which allows 6.7yps against 6.4yps. Overall, the 49ers allow 4.9yppl against 5.3yppl. The 49ers offense has been below average overall, gaining just 4.7yppl against 4.9yppl, but they are averaging 4.3ypr against 3.8ypr and that should sit very well against a terrible Rams defense, which is allowing 5.4ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.9yps against 5.5yps and 6.1yppl against 5.0yppl. SF qualifies in a power rating situation, which is 130-70-11. They also qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 115-55-7 and 534-411-33, including subsets, which are 432-306-24, 327-221-17 and 244-143-13. Final numbers also favor SF by two points and 1.5 points. There is simply no reason for an over rated Rams team with a terrible defense to be laying points on the road. This game also qualifies in a 80-45-2 over situation and my final numbers indicate about 55 points being scored in this game. Past history also greatly favors SF here (remember that is a long term 56% play) and past history suggests an average of almost 48 points being scored. That past history isn’t just from the glory days of the 49ers as they destroyed the Rams last year here, 30-10. Another easy home dog. SAN FRANCISCO 30 ST LOUIS 24
BALTIMORE –5.5 Kansas City 41
2-1-0/2-1-0 23-17.7
Much has been made about the Chiefs and I have gone against them every week this season with either a best bet or a strategy play from my book. But, finally when everybody is talking about how bad they are, I’m here to say they actually aren’t that bad. This team could easily be 2-1 and then this line would be closer to about three points. While KC won here last year, 17-10, they didn’t necessarily deserve to win the game but they were laying seven points and now, all of a sudden, they are getting 5.5 points, which might be more come game time. The KC offense is actually averaging 5.1yppl against 4.7yppl, including 5.1ypr against 4.0ypr. They’ll face a Baltimore defense, which everyone thinks is outstanding, but numbers wise, has actually played below average. They are allowing 4.8yppl against 4.6yppl. The rush defense has been good, allowing just 3.6ypr against 3.9ypr. All things equal, these numbers say KC should play at about 0.6yppl better than an average NFL team. Going the other way, KC is allowing 29 points per game against teams averaging just 21 points per game but they are allowing just 5.6yppl against 5.5yppl, so the defense is actually playing well. It’s just turnovers and short fields that are killing their defense. Everybody thinks their defense is terrible and while it isn’t great, it’s not as bad as some people are making it sound. For Baltimore, their offense overall is below average, gaining just 4.9yppl against 5.3yppl but the rush attack is averaging 5.1ypr against 4.2ypr. That should help against a KC defense, which is allowing 4.6ypr against 3.8ypr. So, while the KC defense is playing better they are still allowing a lot of yards via the rush. What’s happening here is teams are rushing the ball, which makes the KC defense, numbers wise look pretty decent. But, if teams want to continue to do that, they will use up large chunks of time and allow a team like KC to stay within the large number. Baltimore does qualify in a Monday night situation, which is 62-29-2 but everything else belongs to KC. The Chiefs qualify in a contrary situation, which is 112-61-5 and also a bounce back situation, which is 123-70-4 and another bounce back, which is 71-42-2 Meanwhile, Baltimore qualifies in a negative letdown situation, which is an amazing 109-46-4, including a subset, which is 92-24-2. Final numbers contradict these situations, suggesting Baltimore by 12 and 10 points, but, as I’ve said before, the situations mean more than the numbers. This game also qualifies in an over situation, which is 80-45-2 and final numbers suggest about 45 points. If this total goes to 42 or higher, the game would also qualify in an under situation, which is 228-128-8. That probably means it’s best to leave the total alone but I would lean towards the over. Does KC get their first win? Maybe. KANSAS CITY 24 BALTIMORE 21
WEEK FOUR BEST BETS
YTD 14-5 +25.40%
3% SAN FRANCISCO +3.5
3% KANSAS CITY +5.5
3% ST LOUIS/SAN FRANCISCO OVER 44
<HR color=#c0c0c0 SIZE=1>PITTSBURGH –5 Cincinnati 38.5
6-3-1/4-6-0 15.4-18.7
I’ve been saying all year that Cincinnati might be the most overrated team and they have done nothing to change my mind so far. The Bengal’s are 1-2 only because they were allowed to play an inept offense in Miami and they should have lost that game. Their defense is allowing 5.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.1yps against 5.4yps and 5.9yppl against 4.8yppl. That doesn’t bode well for Cincinnati when facing a Steeler’s offense, which is averaging 3.7ypr against 3.7ypr, 6.0yps against 5.5yps and 4.8yppl against 4.7yppl. The Steeler’s above average defense shouldn’t have any problems shutting down the below average Bengal’s offense. Pittsburgh is allowing just 3.1ypr against 3.9ypr, 5.6yps against 5.4yps and 4.3yppl against 4.7yppl. For Cincinnati, they are averaging just 3.8ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.1yps against 5.5yps and 4.6yppl against 4.8yppl. Cincinnati does qualify in a solid bounce back situation, which is 112-61-5 but Pittsburgh qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 534-411-33, including the best subset of that situation, which is 139-61-7 and won with Baltimore over Cincinnati last week. Final numbers project Pittsburgh by eight points and 12.5 points. Final total projects about 43 points, which would lean towards the over. The situation Pittsburgh qualifies in is stronger and the value lies with them. I think this is an easy call. I don’t have enough to make the play but Pittsburgh is the obvious choice here. PITTSBURGH 27 CINCINNATI 17
St Louis –3.5 SAN FRANCISCO 44
3-7-0/5-5-0 17.9-29.8
Oh, our beloved Rams. I love teams like this because they produce high octane offenses and poor defenses, which allow us to swoop on in and take advantage of the people who love high octane offenses with no defenses. The Rams offense has been solid, averaging 4.7ypr against 4.5ypr, 6.8yps against 6.2yps and 6.1yppl against 5.4yppl. They’ll face a 49ers defense, which has been very solid against the rush, allowing just 2.9ypr against 4.2ypr. The Rams should be able to take advantage of the below average 49ers pass defense, which allows 6.7yps against 6.4yps. Overall, the 49ers allow 4.9yppl against 5.3yppl. The 49ers offense has been below average overall, gaining just 4.7yppl against 4.9yppl, but they are averaging 4.3ypr against 3.8ypr and that should sit very well against a terrible Rams defense, which is allowing 5.4ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.9yps against 5.5yps and 6.1yppl against 5.0yppl. SF qualifies in a power rating situation, which is 130-70-11. They also qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 115-55-7 and 534-411-33, including subsets, which are 432-306-24, 327-221-17 and 244-143-13. Final numbers also favor SF by two points and 1.5 points. There is simply no reason for an over rated Rams team with a terrible defense to be laying points on the road. This game also qualifies in a 80-45-2 over situation and my final numbers indicate about 55 points being scored in this game. Past history also greatly favors SF here (remember that is a long term 56% play) and past history suggests an average of almost 48 points being scored. That past history isn’t just from the glory days of the 49ers as they destroyed the Rams last year here, 30-10. Another easy home dog. SAN FRANCISCO 30 ST LOUIS 24
BALTIMORE –5.5 Kansas City 41
2-1-0/2-1-0 23-17.7
Much has been made about the Chiefs and I have gone against them every week this season with either a best bet or a strategy play from my book. But, finally when everybody is talking about how bad they are, I’m here to say they actually aren’t that bad. This team could easily be 2-1 and then this line would be closer to about three points. While KC won here last year, 17-10, they didn’t necessarily deserve to win the game but they were laying seven points and now, all of a sudden, they are getting 5.5 points, which might be more come game time. The KC offense is actually averaging 5.1yppl against 4.7yppl, including 5.1ypr against 4.0ypr. They’ll face a Baltimore defense, which everyone thinks is outstanding, but numbers wise, has actually played below average. They are allowing 4.8yppl against 4.6yppl. The rush defense has been good, allowing just 3.6ypr against 3.9ypr. All things equal, these numbers say KC should play at about 0.6yppl better than an average NFL team. Going the other way, KC is allowing 29 points per game against teams averaging just 21 points per game but they are allowing just 5.6yppl against 5.5yppl, so the defense is actually playing well. It’s just turnovers and short fields that are killing their defense. Everybody thinks their defense is terrible and while it isn’t great, it’s not as bad as some people are making it sound. For Baltimore, their offense overall is below average, gaining just 4.9yppl against 5.3yppl but the rush attack is averaging 5.1ypr against 4.2ypr. That should help against a KC defense, which is allowing 4.6ypr against 3.8ypr. So, while the KC defense is playing better they are still allowing a lot of yards via the rush. What’s happening here is teams are rushing the ball, which makes the KC defense, numbers wise look pretty decent. But, if teams want to continue to do that, they will use up large chunks of time and allow a team like KC to stay within the large number. Baltimore does qualify in a Monday night situation, which is 62-29-2 but everything else belongs to KC. The Chiefs qualify in a contrary situation, which is 112-61-5 and also a bounce back situation, which is 123-70-4 and another bounce back, which is 71-42-2 Meanwhile, Baltimore qualifies in a negative letdown situation, which is an amazing 109-46-4, including a subset, which is 92-24-2. Final numbers contradict these situations, suggesting Baltimore by 12 and 10 points, but, as I’ve said before, the situations mean more than the numbers. This game also qualifies in an over situation, which is 80-45-2 and final numbers suggest about 45 points. If this total goes to 42 or higher, the game would also qualify in an under situation, which is 228-128-8. That probably means it’s best to leave the total alone but I would lean towards the over. Does KC get their first win? Maybe. KANSAS CITY 24 BALTIMORE 21
