Wisconsin v. Minnesota
Minnesota has pounded the hell out of teams that could do nothing to defend themselves but when they had to face teams that could play football well, that was another story. So, on the heels of a blowout 55-7 win, oddsmakers have taken this opportunity to make them inflated home favorites vs. a quality football team in the Wisconsin Badgers. Do you think I should mention the fact that Minnesota is 1-7 SU in the last eight meetings? I think I will keep that one to myself and point out instead that in the two games vs. teams with winning records, Minnesota gave up an average of 41 points. That just does not make me warm and fuzzy inside when I think of laying more than touchdown with them.
Wisconsin walks into this game wearing the shame of a 16-7 loss to Northwestern. What´s worse is that they´ve had two weeks to chew on that loss. If Wisconsin is not the most prepared and fired up team on Saturday afternoon then Barry Alvarez is not doing his job. Wisconsin has made wise use of their two weeks to prepare for this game and they will not be the least bit intimidated by Minnesota pounding the hell of out of the deaf and dumb schools. Look for Wisconsin to make it eight of the last nine in this series as they win straight up.
Wisconsin 38 Minnesota 30
Penn St. v. Northwestern
I think we all know why this line has been set the way that it has. Northwestern has a history for losing and Penn St. has Joe Paterno. This all means nothing in the year 2003. Joe Pa is 5 games under .500 and for the first time in many decades, Northwestern comes into this game with a better record than Penn St. Northwestern has not lost a game this season to a team that has a losing record. Despite that they are home dogs to a 2-7 football team. Kind of makes you laugh doesn´t it. Northwestern has not forgotten the pain of the 49-0 whipping they took in Happy Valley last year. They are out for the big payback and they are out to reach .500. Look for a highly motivated Northwestern team to get the win the way that they did v. Wisconsin.
This entire season has been a rough one for Joe Paterno. In this rough season, this week has probably been the roughest for the aging legendary coach. Paterno has had to answer cries for his retirement. This is certainly a distraction that a 2-7 team does not need. I don´t think that this Penn St. team believes in Paterno anymore. They are starting to believe that he is outdated and not in tough with the new age of football players. They don´t believe in his plays or his play calling. Penn St. has two victories this season and they have come against Temple and Kent St. Some call me and tell me how that makes them road favorites in a Big-10 games. Wrong team favored. Jump on board with Northwestern.
Northwestern 31 Penn St. 21
Arizona St. v. Stanford
As a rule, it´s not a good practice to lay points with a sub .500 team on the road one week after they got pounded by 28 points at home. Arizona St. has one road win this season in four games and that was by two points against a woeful North Carolina team. What veteran of AA meetings made the line on this game? This line is as soft as a baby´s bottom especially when you consider two things: first is that Arizona St. is 1-3 SU in the last four meetings and Stanford is in revenge mode in this game after a 65-24 loss in Tempe last season. I love revenging teams in the underdog role. Arizona St. is not long on defense and when you aren´t playing defense, you should not lay points on the road.
Stanford is coming off of a big confidence building win over UCLA in their last game. The win pulled Stanford one game closer to .500 on the season. Expect them to go all out to reach that .500 mark as it will be a big triumph for them. Stanford plays a better brand of defense than the Sun Devils and the Cardinal are 4-0 ATS this season at home. They will welcome the opportunity to show Arizona St. what´s what after taking that ugly 41 point loss a season ago. Stay at home with Stanford and take the points.
Stanford 34 Arizona St. 23
Florida St. (8-1) v. Clemson (5-4)
It´s another edition of the Bowden Bowl which has pretty much been a one sided affair over the years. However, Clemson has held their own vs. the Seminoles in this series when they have played them at home. Clemson has covered three of the last four meetings in Clemson. One thing to watch out for here is Clemson only lost by 17 points to the Seminoles in Tallahassee last year and that´s the close they have come to Florida St. on the road in four tries. The gap is closing between these two teams and the upset could be in full effect. Since losing their first game to Georgia this season the Tigers are undefeated at home and they come into this game really feeling like this is the year that they can get the Seminoles. They know that a few fluke things happened in last year´s game like a fumbled kickoff return and a kick return for a touchdown. Last year´s game was closer than the final score indicates. Clemson will stand up to the challenge here.
I get the feeling that the Seminoles will not be entirely focused in this contest. They are coming off of a shutout win in South Bend. The Seminoles moved into the third spot in the BCS rankings and now they are calculating what it will take for them to get into that championship game. They also have a revenge game next week v. NC State. Very little of their focus is on Clemson right now who they don;t have much respect for. Florida St. has beaten the Tigers umpteen times in a row. However, all good things come to an end. I am not solid on this Florida St. team nor am I sold on Chris Rix. Sure they beat up Notre Dame but who hasn´t. Florida St. struggled mightily in their only road game v. a quality opponent and I believe this Clemson team is better than the Virginia team that almost beat Florida St. I am looking for the big time upset here as Clemson takes down Florida St.
Clemson 31 Florida St. 28
Virginia Tech v. Pittsburgh
Oddsmakers did the Hokies a great injustice when they made them favorites in this game. Despite whipping on Miami last week, the Hokies still aren´t that good. They have made a killing this season off playing a large amount of home games and a large amount of games v. cupcakes. One win over Miami does not suddenly make them world beaters. Virginia Tech has only had two games thus far on the season and they failed to cover in both of them. Also, in both games, they allowed more than 20 points and both of those games came against teams with losing records at the time. What do you think Pittsburgh will do. Virginia Tech had no answer for the Panthers in their own backyard a season ago. How you lose by 7 points to the same team a year ago at home and then turnaround and remain a favorite when you play them on the road is befuddling to me. This is just oddsmakers playing off of the hype of a 24 point win over an undefeated team a week ago. Oddsmakers are also exploiting the revenge angle in this one but that is washed away when you make the revenging team the favorite especially on the road.
Pittsburgh is highly motivated by their status as the underdog in this contest. They are wondering how Tech gets to be favorites in this game after Pittsburgh dominated them a year ago. They feel disrespected and they will go out to get the respect they feel they rightfully deserve. Pittsburgh has two losses on the season and they both appear to have come from lack of focus on their part. Losses to Notre Dame and Toledo should have never have happened. No chance on Pittsburgh being short on focus this week and when their minds are set right, Pittsburgh is a better team than Virginia Tech. With DeAngelo Hall and his big mouth sitting on the sidelines for the first half of this game, look for Larry Fitzgerald to have some fun in the first half and then continue the party in the 2nd half when Hall makes futile attempts to cover college football´s best player. Take Pittsburgh in this one.
Pittsburgh 35 Virginia Tech 14
AND MY PLAY OF THE WEEK....
California (5-5) v. Oregon
If they could do it all over again, I think the Oregon Ducks would give back that win over Michigan. Life just has not been the same for them since the big upset in Eugene. The Ducks are just 1-4 since that big win and they have been hammered in many of those losses. Have no fear however, Oregon will strike back in this contest. The Ducksa are embarrassed enough this time to do something about it. Winning teams at home off of an embarrassing loss are a good bet in college football and when you can get that team as an underdog, it is all the more sweeter. The last time the Ducks took a road pounding and returned home, they shutout Stanford at home 35-0. Look for a similar type effort here against a California team that they have beaten 6 times in a row. Oregon will get things right in this contest.
California is a .500 team with a losing record on the road this year. They do not have a road win vs. a team with a winning record and I think they are a poor value as a favorite in this game. This line is based on California´s blowout win in their last outing v. Arizona St. However, in the Pac-10, you are never as good as your last blowout. California has not had an answer for Oregon in this series and I don´t see them coming up with one here. There´s the chance that they will be complacent after a 28 point win over Arizona St. and I don´t see them matching the intensity of the Ducks in this one. Take Oregon.
Oregon 42 California 27
Minnesota has pounded the hell out of teams that could do nothing to defend themselves but when they had to face teams that could play football well, that was another story. So, on the heels of a blowout 55-7 win, oddsmakers have taken this opportunity to make them inflated home favorites vs. a quality football team in the Wisconsin Badgers. Do you think I should mention the fact that Minnesota is 1-7 SU in the last eight meetings? I think I will keep that one to myself and point out instead that in the two games vs. teams with winning records, Minnesota gave up an average of 41 points. That just does not make me warm and fuzzy inside when I think of laying more than touchdown with them.
Wisconsin walks into this game wearing the shame of a 16-7 loss to Northwestern. What´s worse is that they´ve had two weeks to chew on that loss. If Wisconsin is not the most prepared and fired up team on Saturday afternoon then Barry Alvarez is not doing his job. Wisconsin has made wise use of their two weeks to prepare for this game and they will not be the least bit intimidated by Minnesota pounding the hell of out of the deaf and dumb schools. Look for Wisconsin to make it eight of the last nine in this series as they win straight up.
Wisconsin 38 Minnesota 30
Penn St. v. Northwestern
I think we all know why this line has been set the way that it has. Northwestern has a history for losing and Penn St. has Joe Paterno. This all means nothing in the year 2003. Joe Pa is 5 games under .500 and for the first time in many decades, Northwestern comes into this game with a better record than Penn St. Northwestern has not lost a game this season to a team that has a losing record. Despite that they are home dogs to a 2-7 football team. Kind of makes you laugh doesn´t it. Northwestern has not forgotten the pain of the 49-0 whipping they took in Happy Valley last year. They are out for the big payback and they are out to reach .500. Look for a highly motivated Northwestern team to get the win the way that they did v. Wisconsin.
This entire season has been a rough one for Joe Paterno. In this rough season, this week has probably been the roughest for the aging legendary coach. Paterno has had to answer cries for his retirement. This is certainly a distraction that a 2-7 team does not need. I don´t think that this Penn St. team believes in Paterno anymore. They are starting to believe that he is outdated and not in tough with the new age of football players. They don´t believe in his plays or his play calling. Penn St. has two victories this season and they have come against Temple and Kent St. Some call me and tell me how that makes them road favorites in a Big-10 games. Wrong team favored. Jump on board with Northwestern.
Northwestern 31 Penn St. 21
Arizona St. v. Stanford
As a rule, it´s not a good practice to lay points with a sub .500 team on the road one week after they got pounded by 28 points at home. Arizona St. has one road win this season in four games and that was by two points against a woeful North Carolina team. What veteran of AA meetings made the line on this game? This line is as soft as a baby´s bottom especially when you consider two things: first is that Arizona St. is 1-3 SU in the last four meetings and Stanford is in revenge mode in this game after a 65-24 loss in Tempe last season. I love revenging teams in the underdog role. Arizona St. is not long on defense and when you aren´t playing defense, you should not lay points on the road.
Stanford is coming off of a big confidence building win over UCLA in their last game. The win pulled Stanford one game closer to .500 on the season. Expect them to go all out to reach that .500 mark as it will be a big triumph for them. Stanford plays a better brand of defense than the Sun Devils and the Cardinal are 4-0 ATS this season at home. They will welcome the opportunity to show Arizona St. what´s what after taking that ugly 41 point loss a season ago. Stay at home with Stanford and take the points.
Stanford 34 Arizona St. 23
Florida St. (8-1) v. Clemson (5-4)
It´s another edition of the Bowden Bowl which has pretty much been a one sided affair over the years. However, Clemson has held their own vs. the Seminoles in this series when they have played them at home. Clemson has covered three of the last four meetings in Clemson. One thing to watch out for here is Clemson only lost by 17 points to the Seminoles in Tallahassee last year and that´s the close they have come to Florida St. on the road in four tries. The gap is closing between these two teams and the upset could be in full effect. Since losing their first game to Georgia this season the Tigers are undefeated at home and they come into this game really feeling like this is the year that they can get the Seminoles. They know that a few fluke things happened in last year´s game like a fumbled kickoff return and a kick return for a touchdown. Last year´s game was closer than the final score indicates. Clemson will stand up to the challenge here.
I get the feeling that the Seminoles will not be entirely focused in this contest. They are coming off of a shutout win in South Bend. The Seminoles moved into the third spot in the BCS rankings and now they are calculating what it will take for them to get into that championship game. They also have a revenge game next week v. NC State. Very little of their focus is on Clemson right now who they don;t have much respect for. Florida St. has beaten the Tigers umpteen times in a row. However, all good things come to an end. I am not solid on this Florida St. team nor am I sold on Chris Rix. Sure they beat up Notre Dame but who hasn´t. Florida St. struggled mightily in their only road game v. a quality opponent and I believe this Clemson team is better than the Virginia team that almost beat Florida St. I am looking for the big time upset here as Clemson takes down Florida St.
Clemson 31 Florida St. 28
Virginia Tech v. Pittsburgh
Oddsmakers did the Hokies a great injustice when they made them favorites in this game. Despite whipping on Miami last week, the Hokies still aren´t that good. They have made a killing this season off playing a large amount of home games and a large amount of games v. cupcakes. One win over Miami does not suddenly make them world beaters. Virginia Tech has only had two games thus far on the season and they failed to cover in both of them. Also, in both games, they allowed more than 20 points and both of those games came against teams with losing records at the time. What do you think Pittsburgh will do. Virginia Tech had no answer for the Panthers in their own backyard a season ago. How you lose by 7 points to the same team a year ago at home and then turnaround and remain a favorite when you play them on the road is befuddling to me. This is just oddsmakers playing off of the hype of a 24 point win over an undefeated team a week ago. Oddsmakers are also exploiting the revenge angle in this one but that is washed away when you make the revenging team the favorite especially on the road.
Pittsburgh is highly motivated by their status as the underdog in this contest. They are wondering how Tech gets to be favorites in this game after Pittsburgh dominated them a year ago. They feel disrespected and they will go out to get the respect they feel they rightfully deserve. Pittsburgh has two losses on the season and they both appear to have come from lack of focus on their part. Losses to Notre Dame and Toledo should have never have happened. No chance on Pittsburgh being short on focus this week and when their minds are set right, Pittsburgh is a better team than Virginia Tech. With DeAngelo Hall and his big mouth sitting on the sidelines for the first half of this game, look for Larry Fitzgerald to have some fun in the first half and then continue the party in the 2nd half when Hall makes futile attempts to cover college football´s best player. Take Pittsburgh in this one.
Pittsburgh 35 Virginia Tech 14
AND MY PLAY OF THE WEEK....
California (5-5) v. Oregon
If they could do it all over again, I think the Oregon Ducks would give back that win over Michigan. Life just has not been the same for them since the big upset in Eugene. The Ducks are just 1-4 since that big win and they have been hammered in many of those losses. Have no fear however, Oregon will strike back in this contest. The Ducksa are embarrassed enough this time to do something about it. Winning teams at home off of an embarrassing loss are a good bet in college football and when you can get that team as an underdog, it is all the more sweeter. The last time the Ducks took a road pounding and returned home, they shutout Stanford at home 35-0. Look for a similar type effort here against a California team that they have beaten 6 times in a row. Oregon will get things right in this contest.
California is a .500 team with a losing record on the road this year. They do not have a road win vs. a team with a winning record and I think they are a poor value as a favorite in this game. This line is based on California´s blowout win in their last outing v. Arizona St. However, in the Pac-10, you are never as good as your last blowout. California has not had an answer for Oregon in this series and I don´t see them coming up with one here. There´s the chance that they will be complacent after a 28 point win over Arizona St. and I don´t see them matching the intensity of the Ducks in this one. Take Oregon.
Oregon 42 California 27
