I just want to start by stating this is NOT my write-up but I thought it was worth sharing with my friends here.
So credit for this goes to a user elsewhere by the name of Scal....Thanx Scal
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[Quote: ] First off, this is a very unique spot. We get to cap a game off an extended layoff only comparable to the beginning of the season. So essentially, the second half (not really a half by any stretch as 50+ games of 82 have already been played) is a new season. I love this spot for this game.
Secondly, I did want to toot my own horn and say I have met my'gold standard' for betting during a season: 80% win rate. I have gone 8-2 with the 10 games I've posted this year (all with lengthy write-ups) with many of the games and the margins of victory being complete dismantling of the opposing side we are betting against. That's with several ML games thrown in. I would be happy to quit now and say that during the 2013-2014 season I hit 80%, but what purpose would that serve other than to boost my own ego? The answer is none. There are more games and more spots remaining until the end of the season so cap we will. There is no 100% win rate so 80% really is the mountaintop for me. Yes, it is only 10 games but the amount of hours I put into thinking about/researching/writing up those games could equal 50 to 100 capped games for some others.
Onto this game.
Who do I like and why?
I love the Knicks over the Grizzlies in Memphis on Tuesday 2/18/14 at 8PM EST.
Onto the why...
[Quote: ]1) This is an ultra-rare situational play and situational bet.
Why are situational plays good plays? Because the line doesn't fully account for many of the spots some teams are in. Whether it be a lookahead game or a revenge spot, the line is usually off in that regard by a point or two or maybe several.
Lines are typically 'the here and now' and situational plays are good plays because cappers play the spot the team is in against the line, which may be just a normal home/away line that doesn't account for what the capper is seeing.
Why is this Knicks/Grizz game a situational play?
A) It is after the All-star break and really isn't a true road game. The Knicks will arrive in Memphis today and have a full day of practice today and tomorrow. There is no road-weary Knicks to worry about.
Why should we worry about the Knicks being road or minutes weary?
Guess who leads the league in minutes played?
Yes, Carmelo at 38.8. He has openly complained about how he and the team were 'tired' before the Kings and Thunder losses (even though both were 3 days apart). It doesn't matter whether we believe Anthony is minutes-weary after a 3 game layoff. It's psychological. If he believes he is weary, he is weary. And he has an argument given he leads the league in minutes.
Now he's had a 6 day layoff (the All-Star game is not a 'game', more on that later). There are no excuses for being weary after such a layoff.
And the layoff itself leads to another situational play point:
B) How do the Knicks do during extended layoffs?
This is very important so listen up!
The Knicks have had two extended layoffs this year.
One came during a 9 game losing streak on 12/1/13. They lost to the Pelicans on that day 103-99 at home and failed to cover.
Their next game was FOUR days later on 12/5/13.
The result?
They crushed the Nets AT Brooklyn by THIRTY in a game I posted as 1.5 point dogs and 2 point favorites in a line swing.
The next layoff was FIVE days and came after a 3 game losing streak on 12/28/13. They lost at the Raptors 115-110 and failed to cover.
What happened five days later on 1/2/14?
They beat the Spurs at the Spurs OUTRIGHT and covered as 11 point DOGS.
So these extended layoffs have been quite nice to the Knicks this year haven't they.
What are the ingredients for the Knicks to respond this season after extended layoffs?
A losing streak.
An away game.
What do we have against the Grizzlies? A two game losing streak and more importantly, they have lost 5 of 6. It is also an away game.
Two games do not a significant sample size make you say? I say, in two big games in spots the Knicks HAD to respond in against big teams (the Nets game was a BIG game and it is their in-state rival), they did. And that is more than enough for this Grizzlies game.
So this is a great situational play.
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[Quote: ]Now why is this a situational bet?
It's a situational bet because the Knicks are not in a good spot to bet on the rest of the entire road trip, or at least not a prime spot.
Look at the games:
2/18/14 @ Memphis
2/19/14 @ New Orleans
2/21/14 @ Orlando
2/22/14 @ Hawks.
Yes the Knicks may cover some of those games but they are all, B2B, 3rd in 4 and 4th in 5 respectively. And go take a look at how Orlando is doing at home if you think that is a walk in the park. They have wins over the Pacers and Thunder and have won 5 of 6 at home.
That makes THIS BET, after the layoff the best bet of the entire road trip, especially in light of the info posted above.
A situational play is on the team. A situational bet is on the slate to come.
This game satisfies both requirements and really doesn't come up often and they are really hard to spot when they do.
I've spotted this one.
Take the Knicks.
Now I could stop right there and this would be a sufficient, if not lengthy write-up. But of course, I am not done in my support for the Knicks in this play...NOT EVEN CLOSE.
2) JR Smith returns and so does Mike Conley/Gasol/Allen.
Why are these fundamentally different returns for each team?
JR Smith had a facemask issue for the Kings game. Yes, it didn't fit right so he sat. I'm serious. Does JR kill you when he plays? Yes, but not of late. After 'shoelace-gate', he's actually someone we want on the floor more often than not and the Knicks do not have points to spare with this roster. He gives you offense. He returns after a one-game absence that was not due to injury.
Mike Conley returns from a seven game absence due to right ankle sprain.
As we've said many times on this site, you actually want to fade the team with the returning player if that player is of value. Why? The line is shorter because his return.
So the line will favor the Grizz by .5/1 pt due to the Conley return. That's a GOOD THING. Conley will likely be rusty getting his first game action on the knee and Smith counters the return which really wasn't an injury. Ball-handler rust from a PG is the best thing to fade when you are on the other side.
But the Grizz have other issues due to injury. Tony Allen is a gametime decision.
More importantly, Marc Gasol may return from injury after aggravating the same knee that kept him out 23 games earlier in the year.
So you have a rusty uncertain Grizz roster vs. a healthy Knicks one while the line will favor the Grizz for the returns and won't account for the rust.
Advantage Knicks backers.
[/Quote]
[Quote: ]3) The Knicks vs. the spread in the past several games. How do they really look...?
Let's look at that. At first glance, it's not pretty.
They did not cover against the Kings as 6 point favorites and lost outright in OT.
But let's take a closer look at that game. The Knicks opened a 33-22 lead in that game and held a double digit lead for a sizable portion of it.
What happened? They dared Jimmer Fredette to beat them. And beat them he did. It's precisely the epitome of Knicks arrogance to leave the little outside shooter open the whole game and let him burn you for a career high.
The point is, the Knicks are who we thought they were in that game. They came out as we expected them to. The problem was that the line was too high (-6 Knicks) and the one guy who they left open killed them. That ended in an OT loss for a Kings team that was desperate for a win even with Cousins out of the game (which really helped rally the Kings instead of hurt them!).
When you have a bad team like the Knicks, even in non-covers you have to look for morsels of positives in their games. There were some here.
The game before that?
The Thunder at OKC.
They lost against the spread +10 112-100. Where was the positive? The positive was that they didn't get the doors blown off them at the 1pm (12pm body clock time EST) early start time. I have a thread dedicated to this. They have been MAULED in these early start times against the best (the spurs) and the worst (the celtics). It didn't matter who they played. They lost BIG.
Well getting to within TWO of the spread in an early start time is an accomplishment for this awful early game Knicks team. Moreover, Carmelo had one of his WORST games of the year for him and the Knicks still only were outside the number by 2.
Again, search for positives and dig deeper in what are on its face, apparent negatives, when it comes to bad teams.
There are positives in the Thunder non-cover.
The Nuggets blowout I posted was before that game (Knicks +1.5 and they won by 27)
Lastly, the Blazers were before that game. They didn't cover by 1 losing by 4 94-90 (Blazers -3).
What was the positive? A Carmelo putback at the buzzer would have covered that number. And a furious rally to end that game when they were down by 11 enabled them to get within one of the number.
So really in their last 4 games ATS, they are 1-3 but could easily be 2-2 if not 3-1.
There is an argument there when you dig.
Why dig? We have to take them ATS against the Grizz and the number matters.
We dug and it's there. Take the Knicks.
Are we done? Hell no.
4) Carmelo and the All-Star game.
This is short and sweet but it's worth mentioning. Carmelo came within a hair of being the all-star MVP but it went to Kyrie. Why is that a good thing? Melo got to be on a national stage where the lights are bright, hit a record number of threes, and the MVP ultimately escaped him. Do not think that wouldn't push this spread down at least .5 point if he did get it. You can debate me on it but the Knicks are a public team and after '62', any Melo performance has the books scared that he will take over and destroy their line. He can do that.
But, what happened? He got his batteries charged in that he performed in the game (scored 30) and got to rub elbows with the players he sees as his counterparts.
Even Tim Hardaway Jr. got to be with his father in a challenge before that.
This is a small thing but for the Knicks and this game when we back them, small things matter. The Knicks need encouragement. They need something to feel good in a season of misery. The all-star game representation and performance did that for their best player and maybe even a bench player. That matters and that FAR OUTWEIGHS any wear and tear and/or travel fatigue Melo had to go through.
And the Grizz representation in the game itself? 0 players just to note it.
Advantage Knicks backers. Take the Knicks.
[/Quote]
[Quote: ]6) Melo said the Kings game was a must win but now it appears you are selling this as a must win. What's the difference?
The difference lies in the fact that boasts become exercises in futility if you boast too often.
Melo said the Kings game was a must-win and then JR sits because his facemask didn't fit right. Yeah, they were all on the same page weren't they...
A little Knicks history: Patrick Ewing was the KING of boasting about wins even vowing the Knicks would win big games. The result? I can assure you the Knicks lost more games when he boasted than when he didn't.
The fact the Knicks haven't really chirped about this game is to our advantage because it is a must win to start the road trip and is a statement game after the All-Star break.
All is quiet in Knicks land for this game. No boasts. GOOD.
Take the Knicks.
I could go on and on and on but again, do you need more. There comes a point in a write-up where the side has been sold and I hope, for you the reader I have reached that point.
You may disagree with one or two bullets above but that is why I have several. The majority of bullets you will likely agree with and that means the side you should take is the Knicks.
Now, I'm looking for a line and I STILL don't see one but I'm not going to hold out any longer with this write-up waiting for it. It is likely due to the status of Gasol or maybe something come up with Conley.
No matter.
I see a Knicks win outright here.
If the books give us a juicy 5 or 6 I will run with it too but it may come in at 4.5 and even 4 depending on how Gasol looks. A word on Gasol. If he doesn't play, the Grizz will have major problems underneath with Chandler healthy and playing so hopefully the Grizz still spot us points and he doesn't play (and they will spot us as there is no way in this lifetime the Knicks will be laying even a single point in this spot, Gasol or not).
Two last things I want to add:
The Knicks have been bad ATS in the recent games losing 5 of 7 (with one of those covers my Nuggets post).
But the Grizz have been equally bad, also failing to cover 5 of 7 so don't be fearful of them.
FINALLY, and this is it, the Knicks are in a revenge spot here. The Grizz beat them by 8 home 95-87 on 12/21.
But guess what? That was a 12PM start time and was the Knicks BEST performance of their 4 12 PM start times! So instead of getting blown out by an average of THIRTY SIX in the two early games before that, they actually showed life against the Grizz in a spot where they were brutal regularly, with the Knicks getting it to 91-87 in the final 3 minutes, quite an accomplishment considering their past in early starts.
Finally, finally, finally, the trade deadline is in two days and this roster may change. That adds to uncertainty. You want certainty. You want the roster you see and the head coach you know so you can effectively cap it. We have both right here.
We know which side to be on.
Oh look, I see a line on Covers.com just came out at +5.
Although I think there is an outright win here, I will post the points like I usually do since hitting a side straight up is hard enough. Even if this line moves against us, take whatever the books are putting on a silver platter for us.
Again, this is my local team along with the Nets which I LOVE to cap. All the familiarity is there as I follow them all year, every year.
THE PICK:
KNICKS +5 OVER GRIZZLIES
[/Quote]
So credit for this goes to a user elsewhere by the name of Scal....Thanx Scal
............................................................................................................................................................
[Quote: ] First off, this is a very unique spot. We get to cap a game off an extended layoff only comparable to the beginning of the season. So essentially, the second half (not really a half by any stretch as 50+ games of 82 have already been played) is a new season. I love this spot for this game.
Secondly, I did want to toot my own horn and say I have met my'gold standard' for betting during a season: 80% win rate. I have gone 8-2 with the 10 games I've posted this year (all with lengthy write-ups) with many of the games and the margins of victory being complete dismantling of the opposing side we are betting against. That's with several ML games thrown in. I would be happy to quit now and say that during the 2013-2014 season I hit 80%, but what purpose would that serve other than to boost my own ego? The answer is none. There are more games and more spots remaining until the end of the season so cap we will. There is no 100% win rate so 80% really is the mountaintop for me. Yes, it is only 10 games but the amount of hours I put into thinking about/researching/writing up those games could equal 50 to 100 capped games for some others.
Onto this game.
Who do I like and why?
I love the Knicks over the Grizzlies in Memphis on Tuesday 2/18/14 at 8PM EST.
Onto the why...
[Quote: ]1) This is an ultra-rare situational play and situational bet.
Why are situational plays good plays? Because the line doesn't fully account for many of the spots some teams are in. Whether it be a lookahead game or a revenge spot, the line is usually off in that regard by a point or two or maybe several.
Lines are typically 'the here and now' and situational plays are good plays because cappers play the spot the team is in against the line, which may be just a normal home/away line that doesn't account for what the capper is seeing.
Why is this Knicks/Grizz game a situational play?
A) It is after the All-star break and really isn't a true road game. The Knicks will arrive in Memphis today and have a full day of practice today and tomorrow. There is no road-weary Knicks to worry about.
Why should we worry about the Knicks being road or minutes weary?
Guess who leads the league in minutes played?
Yes, Carmelo at 38.8. He has openly complained about how he and the team were 'tired' before the Kings and Thunder losses (even though both were 3 days apart). It doesn't matter whether we believe Anthony is minutes-weary after a 3 game layoff. It's psychological. If he believes he is weary, he is weary. And he has an argument given he leads the league in minutes.
Now he's had a 6 day layoff (the All-Star game is not a 'game', more on that later). There are no excuses for being weary after such a layoff.
And the layoff itself leads to another situational play point:
B) How do the Knicks do during extended layoffs?
This is very important so listen up!
The Knicks have had two extended layoffs this year.
One came during a 9 game losing streak on 12/1/13. They lost to the Pelicans on that day 103-99 at home and failed to cover.
Their next game was FOUR days later on 12/5/13.
The result?
They crushed the Nets AT Brooklyn by THIRTY in a game I posted as 1.5 point dogs and 2 point favorites in a line swing.
The next layoff was FIVE days and came after a 3 game losing streak on 12/28/13. They lost at the Raptors 115-110 and failed to cover.
What happened five days later on 1/2/14?
They beat the Spurs at the Spurs OUTRIGHT and covered as 11 point DOGS.
So these extended layoffs have been quite nice to the Knicks this year haven't they.
What are the ingredients for the Knicks to respond this season after extended layoffs?
A losing streak.
An away game.
What do we have against the Grizzlies? A two game losing streak and more importantly, they have lost 5 of 6. It is also an away game.
Two games do not a significant sample size make you say? I say, in two big games in spots the Knicks HAD to respond in against big teams (the Nets game was a BIG game and it is their in-state rival), they did. And that is more than enough for this Grizzlies game.
So this is a great situational play.
[/Quote]
[Quote: ]Now why is this a situational bet?
It's a situational bet because the Knicks are not in a good spot to bet on the rest of the entire road trip, or at least not a prime spot.
Look at the games:
2/18/14 @ Memphis
2/19/14 @ New Orleans
2/21/14 @ Orlando
2/22/14 @ Hawks.
Yes the Knicks may cover some of those games but they are all, B2B, 3rd in 4 and 4th in 5 respectively. And go take a look at how Orlando is doing at home if you think that is a walk in the park. They have wins over the Pacers and Thunder and have won 5 of 6 at home.
That makes THIS BET, after the layoff the best bet of the entire road trip, especially in light of the info posted above.
A situational play is on the team. A situational bet is on the slate to come.
This game satisfies both requirements and really doesn't come up often and they are really hard to spot when they do.
I've spotted this one.
Take the Knicks.
Now I could stop right there and this would be a sufficient, if not lengthy write-up. But of course, I am not done in my support for the Knicks in this play...NOT EVEN CLOSE.
2) JR Smith returns and so does Mike Conley/Gasol/Allen.
Why are these fundamentally different returns for each team?
JR Smith had a facemask issue for the Kings game. Yes, it didn't fit right so he sat. I'm serious. Does JR kill you when he plays? Yes, but not of late. After 'shoelace-gate', he's actually someone we want on the floor more often than not and the Knicks do not have points to spare with this roster. He gives you offense. He returns after a one-game absence that was not due to injury.
Mike Conley returns from a seven game absence due to right ankle sprain.
As we've said many times on this site, you actually want to fade the team with the returning player if that player is of value. Why? The line is shorter because his return.
So the line will favor the Grizz by .5/1 pt due to the Conley return. That's a GOOD THING. Conley will likely be rusty getting his first game action on the knee and Smith counters the return which really wasn't an injury. Ball-handler rust from a PG is the best thing to fade when you are on the other side.
But the Grizz have other issues due to injury. Tony Allen is a gametime decision.
More importantly, Marc Gasol may return from injury after aggravating the same knee that kept him out 23 games earlier in the year.
So you have a rusty uncertain Grizz roster vs. a healthy Knicks one while the line will favor the Grizz for the returns and won't account for the rust.
Advantage Knicks backers.
[/Quote]
[Quote: ]3) The Knicks vs. the spread in the past several games. How do they really look...?
Let's look at that. At first glance, it's not pretty.
They did not cover against the Kings as 6 point favorites and lost outright in OT.
But let's take a closer look at that game. The Knicks opened a 33-22 lead in that game and held a double digit lead for a sizable portion of it.
What happened? They dared Jimmer Fredette to beat them. And beat them he did. It's precisely the epitome of Knicks arrogance to leave the little outside shooter open the whole game and let him burn you for a career high.
The point is, the Knicks are who we thought they were in that game. They came out as we expected them to. The problem was that the line was too high (-6 Knicks) and the one guy who they left open killed them. That ended in an OT loss for a Kings team that was desperate for a win even with Cousins out of the game (which really helped rally the Kings instead of hurt them!).
When you have a bad team like the Knicks, even in non-covers you have to look for morsels of positives in their games. There were some here.
The game before that?
The Thunder at OKC.
They lost against the spread +10 112-100. Where was the positive? The positive was that they didn't get the doors blown off them at the 1pm (12pm body clock time EST) early start time. I have a thread dedicated to this. They have been MAULED in these early start times against the best (the spurs) and the worst (the celtics). It didn't matter who they played. They lost BIG.
Well getting to within TWO of the spread in an early start time is an accomplishment for this awful early game Knicks team. Moreover, Carmelo had one of his WORST games of the year for him and the Knicks still only were outside the number by 2.
Again, search for positives and dig deeper in what are on its face, apparent negatives, when it comes to bad teams.
There are positives in the Thunder non-cover.
The Nuggets blowout I posted was before that game (Knicks +1.5 and they won by 27)
Lastly, the Blazers were before that game. They didn't cover by 1 losing by 4 94-90 (Blazers -3).
What was the positive? A Carmelo putback at the buzzer would have covered that number. And a furious rally to end that game when they were down by 11 enabled them to get within one of the number.
So really in their last 4 games ATS, they are 1-3 but could easily be 2-2 if not 3-1.
There is an argument there when you dig.
Why dig? We have to take them ATS against the Grizz and the number matters.
We dug and it's there. Take the Knicks.
Are we done? Hell no.
4) Carmelo and the All-Star game.
This is short and sweet but it's worth mentioning. Carmelo came within a hair of being the all-star MVP but it went to Kyrie. Why is that a good thing? Melo got to be on a national stage where the lights are bright, hit a record number of threes, and the MVP ultimately escaped him. Do not think that wouldn't push this spread down at least .5 point if he did get it. You can debate me on it but the Knicks are a public team and after '62', any Melo performance has the books scared that he will take over and destroy their line. He can do that.
But, what happened? He got his batteries charged in that he performed in the game (scored 30) and got to rub elbows with the players he sees as his counterparts.
Even Tim Hardaway Jr. got to be with his father in a challenge before that.
This is a small thing but for the Knicks and this game when we back them, small things matter. The Knicks need encouragement. They need something to feel good in a season of misery. The all-star game representation and performance did that for their best player and maybe even a bench player. That matters and that FAR OUTWEIGHS any wear and tear and/or travel fatigue Melo had to go through.
And the Grizz representation in the game itself? 0 players just to note it.
Advantage Knicks backers. Take the Knicks.
[/Quote]
[Quote: ]6) Melo said the Kings game was a must win but now it appears you are selling this as a must win. What's the difference?
The difference lies in the fact that boasts become exercises in futility if you boast too often.
Melo said the Kings game was a must-win and then JR sits because his facemask didn't fit right. Yeah, they were all on the same page weren't they...
A little Knicks history: Patrick Ewing was the KING of boasting about wins even vowing the Knicks would win big games. The result? I can assure you the Knicks lost more games when he boasted than when he didn't.
The fact the Knicks haven't really chirped about this game is to our advantage because it is a must win to start the road trip and is a statement game after the All-Star break.
All is quiet in Knicks land for this game. No boasts. GOOD.
Take the Knicks.
I could go on and on and on but again, do you need more. There comes a point in a write-up where the side has been sold and I hope, for you the reader I have reached that point.
You may disagree with one or two bullets above but that is why I have several. The majority of bullets you will likely agree with and that means the side you should take is the Knicks.
Now, I'm looking for a line and I STILL don't see one but I'm not going to hold out any longer with this write-up waiting for it. It is likely due to the status of Gasol or maybe something come up with Conley.
No matter.
I see a Knicks win outright here.
If the books give us a juicy 5 or 6 I will run with it too but it may come in at 4.5 and even 4 depending on how Gasol looks. A word on Gasol. If he doesn't play, the Grizz will have major problems underneath with Chandler healthy and playing so hopefully the Grizz still spot us points and he doesn't play (and they will spot us as there is no way in this lifetime the Knicks will be laying even a single point in this spot, Gasol or not).
Two last things I want to add:
The Knicks have been bad ATS in the recent games losing 5 of 7 (with one of those covers my Nuggets post).
But the Grizz have been equally bad, also failing to cover 5 of 7 so don't be fearful of them.
FINALLY, and this is it, the Knicks are in a revenge spot here. The Grizz beat them by 8 home 95-87 on 12/21.
But guess what? That was a 12PM start time and was the Knicks BEST performance of their 4 12 PM start times! So instead of getting blown out by an average of THIRTY SIX in the two early games before that, they actually showed life against the Grizz in a spot where they were brutal regularly, with the Knicks getting it to 91-87 in the final 3 minutes, quite an accomplishment considering their past in early starts.
Finally, finally, finally, the trade deadline is in two days and this roster may change. That adds to uncertainty. You want certainty. You want the roster you see and the head coach you know so you can effectively cap it. We have both right here.
We know which side to be on.
Oh look, I see a line on Covers.com just came out at +5.
Although I think there is an outright win here, I will post the points like I usually do since hitting a side straight up is hard enough. Even if this line moves against us, take whatever the books are putting on a silver platter for us.
Again, this is my local team along with the Nets which I LOVE to cap. All the familiarity is there as I follow them all year, every year.
THE PICK:
KNICKS +5 OVER GRIZZLIES
[/Quote]
ointer: Dude I really do not care about ur opinion on my 41 yr old wife with a body of a 25 yr old. 
hno:
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