Simple Analysis...McCain Wins!

[Mistermj]

In general, if a Democrat leads by less than five points in the polls, he loses.

Look at the states that would flip to McCain if the 5% adjustment holds true:

Colorado: Obama +4.3
North Carolina: Obama +0.5
Nevada: Obama +2.6
Ohio: Obama +2.1
Virginia: Obama +4.4



Also note that during the primary voting, Obama's exit polling was overestimated by SEVEN percent on average :lol:

These new polling models are predicated on the idea that due to the sheer wonderfulness of Barack Obama, the turnout patterns will be very different than they've historically been. The problem is that turnout among new voters, young voters, and Hispanic voters has actually been lagging among those voting early. :howdy:

John McCain will win the election. The two key states to watch are New Hampshire and Virginia, with a particular emphasis on Virginia. If either of them go for McCain, you can safely conclude that it's over in the GOP's favor

http://voxday.blogspot.com/

ope: :nono5:

 

[D2bets]

Self-delusion is a powerful thing.

 

[D2bets]

And where did you pull that "in general, if a Democrat leads by less than 5 points". In terms of final polls, Kerry didn't lead in 2004. Gore didn't lead in 2000. Clinton win twice. Dukakis did not lead. Mondale did not lead. I'm going by Gallup polls for all.

How far back are we going? Name me a single example where Dem lead by 5 or less and lost.

Why make stuff up? What does it do for you?

 

[D2bets]

Gallup Poll History

Please point to a single instance of the Democrat leading by 5 points or less in the final poll and then losing. Just one.

 

[Mistermj]

And where did you pull that "in general, if a Democrat leads by less than 5 points". In terms of final polls, Kerry didn't lead in 2004. Gore didn't lead in 2000. Clinton win twice. Dukakis did not lead. Mondale did not lead. I'm going by Gallup polls for all.

How far back are we going? Name me a single example where Dem lead by 5 or less and lost.

Why make stuff up? What does it do for you?

Obviously its from state polls...thus the state by state breakdown.

Why try to blow smoke rings...what does it do for you? :howdy: :think2:

mj@redherring.com

 

[D2bets]

Obviously its from state polls...thus the state by state breakdown.

Why try to blow smoke rings...what does it do for you? :howdy: :think2:

mj@redherring.com

And where do you get your in general every state poll overpolls dem by 5. Hard to figure when that has never held true nationally.

Just more of your BS. Why do you do it?

 

[steaktartar]

And where do you get your in general every state poll overpolls dem by 5. Hard to figure when that has never held true nationally.

Just more of your BS. Why do you do it?

because hes an annoying tick........he even admits it:nohead::nohead:

 

[Mistermj]

And where do you get your in general every state poll overpolls dem by 5. Hard to figure when that has never held true nationally.

Just more of your BS. Why do you do it?

It's not BS...any veteran observer knows that.

Back up your argument...or slink off again with your tail between your legs.

I offer good commentary...and you can't handle it...too bad.

This is a forum for discussion. Its' about time you back up what you say...instead of mindless partisan attacks.

 

[D2bets]

It's not BS...any veteran observer knows that.

Back up your argument...or slink off again with your tail between your legs.

I offer good commentary...and you can't handle it...too bad.

This is a forum for discussion. Its' about time you back up what you say...instead of mindless partisan attacks.

Back off MY argument??? I didn't make the argument -- you did -- without any facts, just with some "any observer know that" BS. You back up your argument.

 

[Preussen]

Back off MY argument??? I didn't make the argument -- you did -- without any facts, just with some "any observer know that" BS. You back up your argument.

That's vintage Mr_MJ - he makes an assertion, gets called out, and in a desperate attempt to hide that he has nothing to back up his assertion with he lamely asks his opponent for proof. If it wouldn't happen all the time it'd even be funny, but as it is it is rather sad.

 

[eek.]

Well if you ask me this huge early voter turnout sure looks like the whitey cavalry are coming to rescue Fort McCain.

The Armies of Santa Obama will be vanquished and America will be saved.

:grandmais

 

[D2bets]

Well if you ask me this huge early voter turnout sure looks like the whitey cavalry are coming to rescue Fort McCain.

The Armies of Santa Obama will be vanquished and America will be saved.

:grandmais

Can you see America from your house?

 

[eek.]

If I stand on my roof I can see the American consulate, does that count?

 

[D2bets]

If I stand on my roof I can see the American consulate, does that count?

You Betcha! :toast:

 

[Mistermj]

That's vintage Mr_MJ - he makes an assertion, gets called out, and in a desperate attempt to hide that he has nothing to back up his assertion with he lamely asks his opponent for proof. If it wouldn't happen all the time it'd even be funny, but as it is it is rather sad.

This is a classic example of how Euro weenies participate in political forums.

I made an assertion based on state polls....and I even gave an example of the key state polling.

D2 changes the subject to one national poll...which was irrelevant to my post.

Preussian jumps in and tries to ram the irrelevant point home as if repeating the off topic reply makes it true.

Classic left wing tactics....can't make it up.

:missingte :missingte :missingte

 

[D2bets]

This is a classic example of how Euro weenies participate in political forums.

I made an assertion based on state polls....and I even gave an example of the key state polling.

D2 changes the subject to one national poll...which was irrelevant to my post.

Preussian jumps in and tries to ram the irrelevant point home as if repeating the off topic reply makes it true.

Classic left wing tactics....can't make it up.

:missingte :missingte :missingte

The supposed "example" you gave was from exit polling not from pre-election polls. Please tell me you understand the difference.

 

[The Guesser]

Go get the Free Money at the Greeek if you actually believe what you're saying. Talk is cheap.

PoliticsEXIT2008 US Election - Odds to win**
11/3/2008*10:00 PMPolitical Party to have the next USA President
101Democrat ** *-1385 *
102Republican ** *+925 *
103Any Other Result ** *+10250 *
*
*

 

[Mistermj]

The supposed "example" you gave was from exit polling not from pre-election polls. Please tell me you understand the difference.

No its not...these are state polls...check RCP if you don't believe me.


Colorado: Obama +4.3
North Carolina: Obama +0.5
Nevada: Obama +2.6
Ohio: Obama +2.1
Virginia: Obama +4.4

Keep blowin smoke Lefties...thats your style.

Busted.

 

[gtc08]

mccain should be ahead in all those states. realistically what are the odds of him winning those 5, or hitting a 5 team parlay when he's a dog in all of those states you listed.

 

[BetIt]

RCP has different #'s for CO/NV

Colorado (9) 50.8 45.3 Obama +5.5
Nevada (5) 49.6 43.4 Obama +6.2