Sick Gambler, a serious question.....If what your saying about....

[Journeyman]

SICKGAMBLER

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> It doesn't matter if you play dogs or favs.. if you play into the real line, without any line edge, you will end up losing very very close to 4.55% over the very long haul. It just has to happen. It is impossible for this not to happen, no matter how lucky or unlucky you are . But when i say the long haul, I mean 100,000 games, not 100 or 1000, because anyone can get lucky and win over 1000 games, or even 5,000.. But over 100,000 plays at betting into the real line, NO BETTOR HAS A CHANCE. The vig will just catch up to you... <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

IF you didn`t scalp and use bonus 'creativity' are you saying you would have no chance long term to turn a profit, OR are you talking about beating the man to the final number?

What your saying is basically no one can win over a career? there is no such thing as a good handicapper? and the whole art of handicapping is just luck?

 

[sickgambler]

OK Jman, it's simple kid. First of all, I was NOT talking bonuses or scalping. Of course with bonuses, middling and scalping, it's a different ballgame. I am ONLY talking about the betting aspect. Now sure you can beat the game if you play edges only and beat the moves.. Some people can do this on a consistent basis. Those are the winners. If you're getting the early moves from BW, and beating all the moves, you will end up retiring.. It's the people that just pick games and don't respect the number and play it at any price just because they like it. Those are the ones that stand NO CHANCE to win.. Now if you are a handicapper, and you handicap the Lakers -11 as a solid play, and the play comes in the dog and the line closes at Lakers -9, and you got Lakers -11, you stand NO CHANCE. If you handicap Lakers -11, and the line doesn't move, and closes at Lakers -11, I don't care how good you are of a handicapper, or how good you think you are... you are going down.. The only bettors that win are the people.. and listen well Jman, the only winners, besides bonuses and scalping, are the bettors who end up with a better line than the closing line. That is the key to winning in gambling. You MUST be beating the CLOSING LINES. If you are not getting a better line than the closing line on most of your games, you are going down. The closing line is by far the most accurate line.. All the betting that goes on all day is basically adjusting itself slowly to the real line, which is the closing line. So once again, you can beat gambling, but even if you think you're a good handicapper, and you bet Lakers in the morning at -11, and the line closes at -11, you are NOT getting a good deal, because if it was a good bet, Billy Walters and his boys would have spotted it and banged the game out and moved it to close at -13.. Then your Lakers -11 would be a solid bet. So the key is, if you want Lakers -11, and the line is at -11 all day and not going to move, I would NOT bet it, unless you can find a Lakers -10 or better somewhere. It's the only way you will NOT go broke, because if you don't respect lines and not have the edge on most of your games, you will end up in the soup kitchen. The 4.55% disadvantage will only catch up to you in no time. This is a very tough business to win at.. You have to grab every edge you can at all times, or you will get eaten alive.. Hope this helps kid..

I am going out for the night now and will be home very late. I will check here again if there is anything else i can add when I get back.

 

[RPM]

sick, so what you are saying is a bet is only a good one if a ton of money comes in on the side you are already on. right?

 

[sickgambler]

And one last thing... A lot of bettors go broke because they bet over their head. They bet what they can't afford to lose. They chase.. You CANNOT do this, or you're asking for trouble. This will eventually come back to haunt you.. The key in gambling is.. DON'T RUN OUT OF MONEY. If you go broke, you are out.. And you must bet within your means, and this will NEVER happen..

RPM,,

If Lakers open at -10, and the line moved all day to -11, then -12, and now it's at -14, and you have it at -13 or better, then you have a good bet. So if the Lakers opened at -10, closes at -14, but you have it at Lakers -13 or better, then it's a good bet.

Good night boys, gotta run....

 

[Arro]

The only way to win is to be on the same side as Billy Walters crew...lol...whatever...

 

[DENIRO]

hey sick

yes you cant win consistently betting all dogs straight across the board( even though last year nfl dogs were like +30)(collegefoots was about even)

however because the linemakers are adjusting to the public and the public loves the fav and overs

most(95% of the time) the value is with the dogs and pts( execept the nfl playoffs)

so each week out of the dogs you have to cap which to play
and the more pts you get the better

sick whats your view of this

sick how can i reach you email?

 

[dimeplayersonly]

SICKGAMBLER........I am going to disagree, on a couple of your points...

im not quoting you directly but its close enough

1. the line you bet must be better than the closing line..


so your saying if a line opens at -3 moves to -4, i get down at -3, and by kickoff it closes at -5........

the only thing i have accomplished is getting down at a key number......john q public pushed that line to -5....well past any value..

yes i always get a warm and fuzzy feeling when i get down on a number and see that its jumping from single digits to double....

sometimes i will even hit it again......but that is hardly a recipe for success.....sometimes moves get there sometimes they dont.....ie...so far this preseaon is a good example of moves not getting there..

2. the closing line is the most accurate...


ok.. you said that the betting that goes on through the day, is basically adjusting the line to where its supposed to be (most accurate)

how is that??? usually its public money that is moving the line up untill game time....

why do i say this???

because sharps hit suspect lines....when they come out...if john q public gets on the same game it almost invariable loses its line value by game time...... it opens 11 moves to whatever and you get down somewhere in the middle..... but many times betting the opposite side (usually dogs) holds better value at game time..

if a newbie were to follow your advice on betting (get a better # than the closing line) on football

they most likely would go busted before the leaves started turning...

you mention nothing about key numbers in football...and thank god....because there are going to be some games this year where sharps will lay -7.....and the squares will lay 8, 9, 9'
and the line will close 10......and the game fall on 7

and what about the "tout" games....the ones that john q. public slam the line from the opening number?? that line will move like a train....you can name your price on those and get all kinds of "line value"...


i dont know which i like better this above strategy or the "if most books have -2400, but i found a -1500 strategy)

 

[acw]

You MUST be beating the CLOSING LINES.
Fully agree, but the only way to find out is by holding a proper database.

 

[Railbird]

databases are for people who cant handicap. databases are used so horsebettors can try to break even, databases dont work in sportsbetting.

 

[PanchoSanza]

Why don't you guys just ignore this scammer and maybe he will go away?

 

[dimeplayersonly]

Pancho..........sick ignores my replies anyway....always has

 

[petyos]

You dont always have to beat the closing number but its a good idea to park your ass in front of the computer on Saturday and Sunday mornings to see which way the line is moving and act accordingly

 

[Superfly]

What's that expression- It's better to be silent and be thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove any doubt.

Sick Gambler- you just removed any doub.