Should I take a piece of my bookie

[Kay]

Brand new to the forums so please let me know if this is inappropriate to post this. I'm a pro poker player and I've known my local bookie for many years. He recently made me an offer that I'm considering.

He has a guy making bets with him that is too big for him to handle alone. However he says there is a middleman intermediary who gets 1% of all money wagered. Middleman get this cut for ensuring that all the money gets taken care of.

Assuming this guy is a random better and not a pro handicapper is this a good deal for me?

Thanks for the help

 

[JudgeWapner]

If you are booking a piece of the guys action, yes it is a good deal. However there are no sure things in the short term. Guy could go on the run of his life. You never know.

 

[Kay]

Sorry im not the middleman. I'd be taking a piece of the bookie. So say mr big bets $11,000 to win $10,000. The bookie can't risk that much and sells me 50% of it. The middleman gets 110 (1% of 11,000). If mr by wins I owe $5k but if he loses I get 5,445. (11,000-110 x 50%).

I'm asking if long term the middleman makes this a non profitable venture

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Only way you should jump into this is if you can get half of all his action & make sure you are in this for the long haul, thats how you make money. Does this guy think you just got off the boat thinking you will only take half of the big guys action & thats all?

 

[C.P.]

I got offered this similiar deal w/my local and good friend.....

some 10 yrs ago...

I resceptfully declined..BEST move I ever made....

He got hit hard by some guys....then some slow pays...and NO pays...

And to top it off....the Cops came in and decimated his operation..(someone ratted him-out)

anyway...I see him once in a while...

Becareful...w/your choice...and bol...(<)<

 

[TheComputerGroup]

I got offered this similiar deal w/my local and good friend.....

some 10 yrs ago...

I resceptfully declined..BEST move I ever made....

He got hit hard by some guys....then some slow pays...and NO pays...

And to top it off....the Cops came in and decimated his operation..(someone ratted him-out)

anyway...I see him once in a while...

Becareful...w/your choice...and bol...(<)<

^^^^^^^^^

Good advice!

 

[Kay]

What is the problem with only taking mr big's action and not the others. All his other bettors are small so he doesn't need me there. I understand that by having pieces of everything it will lessen my risk. However I'm not being offered this. I'm mainly concerned w having an edge here.

Do I have an edge?

Thanks very much for the replies guys. Your much more chill than poker forums

 

[ProPokerPlayer]

Another thing is how do you know you will only be taking this 1 guys action? maybe everyday he tells you the guy wins ? Your going to able to verify/trust the guy that much? He's going to let you in that deep? Do you really want to be in that deep?

I called a guy once and was getting numbers. He tells me he's way 1 sided on this 1 game. He was a damn good handicapper and i knew he liked the other side but he really couldnt afford to lose that much if it didnt go his way. So i offered to buy some of it, im not rich but i think it was close to 3K. Well the game was never in doubt we won going away and when i called him all excited after the game he slammed the phone down....cussing and raising hell cus he sold me so much...he was mad about it for the rest of the season...lol

 

[CujoLatte]

Will you have a hole figure to make up? Meaning if the big guy wins 10dimes one week and the next week loses 5 dimes. Do you get paid on the 5 or do you need to make up the other 5 to get paid?

 

[Kay]

I can see all wagers so I'm not worried about that.

Long term edge is the concern

 

[RunLeeRun]

Like others are asking you, you're only taking part action from this one big bettor, or you get half of all the bookie's sheet? I think there is a big difference. It's way more of a risk if it's just the one guy. If you get half of his whole sheet, then I wouldn't think 1% is a deal breaker. Over the course of a football season the book "should" hold 4-6% of all the action, in my experience. But that is with a large pool of players and not short term as Judge said. The smaller the pool the greater divergence from that number. It could go in your favor and the book ends up holding double digits, lets say 10%, you'd get 4.5%....or it could go against you. The better option, imo, is if you get a piece of his "entire" package then you should get from 1.5% to 2.5% of all the action of the football season. FYI, I'm not a bookie myself, but I help manage accounts so I see a lot of different scenarios. I'll give you a scenario of one package of about 30 players has one guy that sometimes makes 10-25k wagers. The rest are max nickel or dime betters. They did around 5 mil in volume and held just about 4.5%. It was a little over 200K, you would have gotten 85K. If the bookie is just offering you Mr. Big, then he's laying all the risk on you and keeping his 3 or 4% off all the book's action.

 

[Betallsports]

First off, ask to see his Work. Work meaning all his past wagers..... If this guy was a player with him before, he will be able to go back at least a Year.

There's one thing you don't want, is a guy that can hurt you. There's no way of telling if the guy is a Pro or Not, unless you see his past work.
You will also have to do some research on those plays.

Research meaning, is he betting Steam ? Wiseguy Plays ? etc.

I will tell of a recent story.... Very Recent ... a Friend has a Sheet and he has runners, which are sub Agent sheets.
The runner has a Player who has a Friend......that friend wants to be set up to play.
The runner says Ok... sets him up.
The New guy starts to play...... Credit Limit is $5k a week, but the runner forgets to set the Game Limit.... so this new guy can now play $5k on any given Game he wants.
The guy on the 1st week loses his limit ( $5K ) he pays... 2nd week the guys loses $15K ?? How the Fuck can he lose $15K when his limit is $5K ??
Because the Runner kept bumping him ..... That's How
The new guy figured out that his Limit per game was his Weekly Limit.

* That's not the Important part of the Story

This is ........................

Now the settle day is a Thursday ( which to me is Never good ) I prefer a Monday or Tuesday....... anyway

Now the guy starts betting on the 3rd week.... he makes one $1500 bet and Wins
has $6500 balance... it takes the $6500 balance and makes one wager... it Hits
Now he's at $13,000 and makes Two $1500 Parlay's, and two Bets at $5K each
He Hits all of them and is Up $45K

In the mean time Thursday comes along and he can't make it to meet the Runner
Story after Story....... Now the Agent says to the runner.... What's with this guy ??
Did you meet him ? No
The Agent knows a lot of Sharp guys and there is one that some people know of....
I won't say Names..... But Not too many will take him action, but his Action gets leaked from time to time.....

The Agent gets this Sharp guys plays, and matches it up with this New guy
and they are one in the same !
So the Agent shuts him down and says to the runner... I want to meet this new guy.
The New guy doesn't show up.... and Doesn't want his $45K winnings !

The Story goes ...... You Never know Who you are dealing with.

That's why I said, Ask to look at his Work, before you go Head First into the Fire !

 

[Betallsports]

so he simply walked awy from 45k?

ummmmmmmm

ok

so far he has...... he has not returned the Runners call since Friday.

it's $30K ( minus the $15K from the week before )

 

[Kay]

Thanks for all the replies guys!

The official offer is pieces of 3 guys. One is 10x bigger than the others.

I've see. The work. The guy just fires like a crazed animal it's impossible it's smart money

 

[Betallsports]

kay if it is a 100% sure profit waiting to happen, why is someone WANTING to give part of that to you?

(I know, the book can't handle the large bets)

That's my problem with this whole thing.

Now don't get me wrong.... I have passed on guys before myself. But he was Brand new and wasn't able to see his past work.

Many years ago, guy wanted a $50K per week account and said to myself that if he hit a few weeks in a row, I could get in trouble.

of course the guy loses $300K ( And PAYS ) the first year ! hno:

But if this guy is such a Fish.. and the bookie knows from the past he's Square... Not sure if I would be offering a piece of him.

Just my 2 cents

 

[Kay]

Boat: mr big is so big the bookie is only taking 25% of the action. He can't risk going broke. Similar to playing within my poker bankroll no matter how good a game is

 

[patswin]

i'd pass, too much risk if you don't know the guy playing is.

 

[CHOPTALK]

¿qué coño

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Boat: mr big is so big the bookie is only taking 25% of the action. He can't risk going broke. Similar to playing within my poker bankroll no matter how good a game is

Heres the problem, you are gonna take the beating while the book only handles the half that goes with his other players bets.

 

[Gravy]

Just my opinion as i used to run for a bookie years ago is that do you want all the headaches of dealing with people who are down large and wont pay because its gets frustrating to say the least