Sherwood's MLB baseball thread picks w/analysis

sherwood · Mar 30, 2014

Range	W	+/- (Units)
Yesterday	0	0.00
Last 30 Days	1	+2.00
Season to Date	1	+2.00

All games are 2 units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS

SAN DIEGO +104 over Los Angeles
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]The Dodgers are definitely the hunted the season. Los Angeles has baseball’s top payroll and every team will be gunning for them. There is no question that the Dodgers have appeal here, as they’ve already played two real games and won them both with Hyun-Jin Ryu throwing a five-inning, two-hit gem in the second game. That game was last Saturday night at 10:00 PM EST so it was seen at a somewhat normal time for baseball fans in the US to be able to watch. What they saw was the Dodgers scoring runs and Ryu pitching well. Now the oddsmakers have made the Dodgers a very short price against a team that rarely gets seen by anyone not living in San Diego. It’s also the Sunday Night ESPN “real” opener and the small price on the popular Dodgers is a curious one. We say be cautious. Opening the season in Australia and coming back to the US is not an easy trip and the Dodgers may suffer because of it. On a pure stuff level, Ryu doesn’t stand out with his 91 mph fastball and 80 mph change-up being his main offerings. His rookie season at this level went about as well as could have been expected but the second time around for a pitcher that doesn’t have overwhelming stuff is often far less successful.

[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]Even if Ryu pitches well here, the Padres still have a very good shot of winning with Andrew Cashner on the mound. Cashner showcased his high ceiling in his 2013 mini-breakout: 175 IP, 3.09 ERA, 1.13 WHIP. While his overall skills didn't quite support those surface stats, he got better late in the season, a good sign for a pitcher with a history of shoulder issues. His four-seam fastball velocity increased more from the first half to second half than all but two starters in the NL and its surge helped him increased his swinging strike % from 7% in the 1H to 10% in the 2H. Given his high groundball rate, these spikes could be the precursor to a full breakout in 2014. Cashner has filthy stuff and is worth backing as a pooch at home almost every time. No exception here.
[/FONT][/FONT]

thekeyman · Mar 30, 2014

hey sherwood,welcome back for another baseball season,good luck this year

sherwood · Mar 30, 2014

thanks key, BOL 2u2

Cobra07751 · Mar 30, 2014

Great to see you back this year. Looking forward to your analysis

PatsFanatic · Mar 30, 2014

+1. GL this season

thekeyman · Mar 31, 2014

one in the win column already buddy,nice going

sherwood · Mar 31, 2014

Range	W	+/- (Units)
Yesterday	1	+2.08
Last 30 Days	2	+4.08
Season to Date	2	+4.08

All plays are 2 units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS

Monday, March 31

Seattle +115 over L.A. ANGELS

Felix Hernandez has maintained elite skills and surface stats for five consecutive seasons. In fact, his strikeout rate over that period has continued to increase and his control has improved during the last two seasons. But there are some reasons for concern. His four-seam fastball velocity has declined in three straight seasons and now sits at 92 mph. Hernandez hasn't been affected by that decline because his sinker has become a swing-and-miss pitch. His swinging strike % on that pitch the last three seasons: 4.6%, 6.6%, 9.6%. He has a 10%+ swinging strike % on an amazing five separate pitches. The concern here continues to be his workload. Only Justin Verlander and C.C. Sabathia have thrown more innings and pitches from 2008 to 2013 than Hernandez and that workload has piled up at an early age. That said, we’re not concerned about what happens in June, July or August. Right now, Hernandez is fresh so we’ll keep buying the skills because he is the straight goods.

A broken bone in his left elbow cost Jered Weaver the better part of the first two months a year ago. Upon his return, he had just one real disaster start in 22 starts and once again bested xERA by a wide margin, as his hit%, and homerun/fly-ball continued to cooperate. If you’ve been following us for a couple of years than you may recall that Jered Weaver has been high on our fade list and nothing has changed. Weaver’s fastball velocity has dipped three straight years and it’s only a matter of time before it starts affecting his ability to outpitch these skills. Weaver is profiled as a big risk due to his declining four-seam fastball velocity and corresponding dip in strikeouts. Check out his four-seam fastball velocity trend now in MPH over the past four seasons: 89.9, 89.1, 87.8, 86.5. If he had a groundball pitch in his profile, he could re-invent himself now that he's in his 30s. But that isn't the case. He has posted a near-50% fly-ball rate in four of the past five seasons and his line drive rate trend suggests that he is being hit harder and harder: 16%, 19%, 21%, 22%. Weaver has been living an extremely charmed life because his skills are very average at best and as a result, his success cannot last. Weaver is one of the most overvalued pitchers in the game and there is likely going to be huge profits fading him until the truth about his average skills are exposed.

Toronto +152 over TAMPA BAY

While R.A. Dickey's 2013 season wasn't a total bust, he certainly didn't meet the expectations the franchise had of a recent Cy Young winner. Now approaching 40 years old, have we already seen the best of him? On the contrary, Dickey might be the first ever 39-year-old with upside: Ongoing back and neck issues and an unfortunate 68% strand rate contributed to his poor first half (4.72 ERA), but the All-Star break rest produced a far more palatable 3.72 ERA in 2H. Dickey’s strikeout rate rose from 6.5 per nine to 7.7 per nine between 1H to 2H and remains above average for a knuckleballer. A 10% SwK% (swinging K rate) suggests he won't regress back to pre-2012 form. Reports on Dickey this offseason focus almost entirely on the resurgent speed of his "fast" knuckleball, which dipped from 77 mph to 75 in 2013, limiting his ability to keep hitters off balance with multiple offerings of the pitch. A return to that velocity could pay dividends, so long as he's able to limit fly-balls in the process. It’s also worth noting that Dickey has allowed just 27 hits in 165 AB’s against current Rays hitters for a BAA of .164. While some might think Dickey's best days are behind him, we see a 65%/6% dominant start/disaster start split in second half and profit potential.

David Price had a touch of bad hit%/strand% luck and gopheritis (HR’s allowed) infected his 1st half before a triceps strain shelved him for six weeks. His skills remained strong, however, and were vintage upon his return. With rising command and low-3 xERAs, he's a better offense and bullpen away from consistently duplicating his 2012 line but that’s the problem with backing him at big prices. Tampa doesn’t figure to score many and facing a knuckleballer in the opener is a difficult assignment. Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion have combined to hit eight bombs against Price in a combined 71 AB’s against him. The Blue Jays offense could be as explosive as any team in in the majors and it might not take many runs here to get us to the cashier’s window. The Blue Jays were way overvalued a year ago to open the season amidst all the hype but there is none of that to open this year and that makes the undervalued Blue Jays very worthy of backing.

utnatchamps05 · Mar 31, 2014

gl sherwood

thinkin about tailin u this year.
do u have your record from last year?

packer2012 · Mar 31, 2014

Stack em don't rack em, Sherwood!

Best of luck to you Sir!

elMexicano · Mar 31, 2014

Love both picks, best of luck.

sherwood · Mar 31, 2014

utnatchamps05 said:
gl sherwood

thinkin about tailin u this year.
do u have your record from last year?

2009	154-188-14 (-7.12)
2010	233-264-4 (+54.55)
2011	207-259-6 (-32.08)
2012	181-214-0 (+9.00)
2013	234-248-0 (+63.45)

ThreeFreeThrows · Mar 31, 2014

Best of luck to another profitable season Sherwood. I've always value you opinion on games. Have an amazing year!!

DogDaze · Mar 31, 2014

Hope you absolutely kill it this year, Sherwood!

Heels930 · Mar 31, 2014

Love em both! GL this year sherwood! Go Jays!!

TheRyanExpress · Mar 31, 2014

Good luck this season Sherwood. Always great insight!

sherwood · Apr 1, 2014

<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w

unctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w

oNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-CA</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w

ontGrowAutofit/> <w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/> <w:EnableOpenTypeKerning/> <w

ontFlipMirrorIndents/> <w:OverrideTableStyleHps/> <w:UseFELayout/> </w:Compatibility> <w

oNotOptimizeForBrowser/> <m:mathPr> <m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/> <m:brkBin m:val="before"/> <m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/> <m:smallFrac m:val="off"/> <m:dispDef/> <m:lMargin m:val="0"/> <m:rMargin m:val="0"/> <m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/> <m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/> <m:intLim m:val="subSup"/> <m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]-->

Range	W	L	+/- (Units)
Yesterday	1	1	+0.30
Last 30 Days	3	1	+4.38
Season to Date	3	1	+4.38

All plays are for 2 units unless otherwise stated.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS

Tuesday, April 1

TAMPA BAY -1 -105 over Toronto

Yesterday we suggested that the Blue Jays may be an under the radar team and although it’s just one game, they looked like anything but. Poor fundamentals, hitting into rally-killing double plays, shaky fielding and missing pitches by a foot are only some of the things that hampered Toronto’s opener. Meanwhile, the Rays were aggressive at the plate, they had a serious game-plan to attack R.A. Dickey and from where we sit, Joe Maddon made John Gibbons look foolish. Drew Hutchison was one of the most impressive starters at spring training. He had a fantastic 19/4 K/BB in 15 IP as well as a 2:1 groundball/fly-ball ratio. Hutchison emerged as a solid prospect at age 20 in 2011 when he posted an outstanding 171/35 K/BB in 149 IP across three levels in the minors. Then he went under the knife for TJ surgery in late 2012 and rehabbed his elbow for most of 2013. Being just 23 years old, Hutchison has a high ceiling but facing a savvy Rays’ lineup on the road in his first start back is a play worth fading.

A.J. Cobb took a line drive off his head in June, which resulted in a mild concussion and a two-month absence. However, it didn't seem to affect his performance, as seven of his nine starts after his return were of the *pure quality start variety. The magnitude of Cobb’s breakout was a bit surprising but his strikeout rate/groundball % combo says it's legit. Overall last year, Cobb had a nifty 2.76 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. His base skills supported a near-3.00 ERA: 8.4 K’s per nine, 2.8 walks, and a 56% groundball rate. Cobb's success comes primarily due to his changeup, a pitch that generated a high 18% swinging strike rate and his curveball, a pitch that produced a crazy 74% GB%. It’s tempting to spot the 1½-runs and take back 40 cents here but we’ll go the safer route and spot a run (risking 2.1 units to win 2).

*NOTE ABOUT PURE QUALITY STARTS:

The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.

In pure quality starts, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts.

-The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a poor start unless he was injured.

-He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.

-His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.

-He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.

Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he gets a pure quality start, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time

Cleveland +126 over OAKLAND

Scott Kazmir squares off against the team he pitched for last season, the Indians, in his first start as an Athletic. A 3.22 xERA, 9.7 K’s per nine and decent command in the second half of 2013 certainly grabbed the attention of Oakland, who greeted him with a two-year deal worth $22 million. However, Kazmir’s high fly-ball rate of 40% makes him susceptible to the long ball and the move to Oakland (RHB HR -9%) doesn't help him as much as you might think, as Progressive Field in Cleveland suppresses RHB HR by 25%. There is also damage potential to any pitcher that allows too many walks and Kazmir is bordering on trouble in that area. Kazmir is a high risk/high reward pitcher, meaning we’ll be happy to back him as a pooch but not as the chalk this early. Additionally, the A’s didn’t score yesterday and that’s not the way any player or team wants to start off the year, as it often gets tougher at the plate the next day after putting up a bunch of goose eggs.

Corey Kluber’s skills are on positive trends. His strikeout rate, command and groundball rate are up and his xERA says more growth ahead. He did skirt some line-drive danger and his past includes ample base runners, but Kluber’s second half dominant start/disaster split says he was grooving despite losing time to a strained finger. Kluber’s 5.60 spring ERA has many backing off him this early but we’re not following suit. His spring skills were really strong with 7.6 K’s per nine, outstanding control and a spring xERA of 2.98. Breakout targets don't get much better than Kluber and we’re glad to be backing him and the Indians here at a price.

JustinCruise · Apr 1, 2014

Everyone is on cleveland today. Thats why i will stay away from that one lol

gl

StraightXRS · Apr 1, 2014

Hey sherwood are you posting your plays on twitter as well? If so could you give me your twitter handle

thekeyman · Apr 1, 2014

good luck today buddy

sherwood · Apr 1, 2014

Yes, Straight, my twitter handle is @sportswagers3

Thanks Key, best of luck 2u2

Sherwood's MLB baseball thread picks w/analysis

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

New member

Member

New member

Member

Now You Know and Knowing is Half the Battle

Member

New member

New member

Member

New member

Joe Public

Member

Member

Forum statistics

Share this page