Sharps?

[Big10]

Might be perceived as a stupid question but I will ask it any way.

Do you think most of the so called sharps wait until the day of the game (NCAA and NFL)to make their large plays or do you think they hit the games hard right when the number comes out when they feel the line is "soft"? Might be a little bit of both but curious to see what you guys think?

Or do you think they bet the opposite way somewhat large early in the week and bet even larger after the public follows their lead and drives down the number to gain more value?

Thanks-

 

[WalkofLife]

Big10- I'm as sharp as a box, but I think the right time to hit a number is when you think that number has the most value.

I have always thought that you should have an opinion of your own when betting on a game; therefore, the best time to hit a number is when you find that number to be most favourable to you.

I do know the screen manipulation (steam) makes numbers swing, but you should only worry to bet your own opinion.

Otherwise, you'll find yourself following the Kosher Kids early in the week and the Poker Players right before the game and while that might be the best numbers for them that doesn't necessarily mean it should be the best number for you.

Just my .02

 

[wilheim]

Many sharp bettors take early leads on football games hoping their numbers are stronger than the linemakers. When a bettor is right most likely the game will move toward his number opening up middle opportunities later in the week.


wil.

 

[krackman]

IMO the "sharpest" number is the direction it moves within 30 minutes of game time.

 

[THE SHRINK]

Most of the "sharps" I know prefer to bet on game day because most "outs" will take substantially more money then. Also, the best information seems to formulate later, rather than sooner...

However, if these Wise Guys like a favorite, I have noticed that often, they will bet those earlier in the week, before the PUBLIC jumps all over them, and messes up the number they were looking for...

THE SHRINK

 

[Dante]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by krackman:
IMO the "sharpest" number is the direction it moves within 30 minutes of game time. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>


im more square then The Shrink ( if thats possible

)....but I have always thought this also

 

[THE SHRINK]

Yes you are more "SQUARE" Dante because most people know that the SHARPEST NUMBER is only defined by how much of an advantage the player has over the CLOSING LINE, and not 30 minutes before it, period...

THE SHRINK

 

[wantitall4moi]

It's all reletive. I will use the example I used yesterday in regards to that tennis bet peeple were falling all over themselves patting each other on the back about.

When the person posted the play, the "best" number seemed to be -130, but guys were coming on later saying they bet it at -112, -102, or EV. Now the guys coattailing admittedly knew very little about tennis, so the guy making the post would have to be considered "sharp" right? If there is such a thing in tennis. But maybe even more so in that sport than in football because it is fringe.

So if the person giving the play is seen as "sharp" then why did the money move against him? Especially with so many people here seeemingly betting the other side? Again a few bets from a posting forum is a very small sample, but still it is some volume in a sport that probably gets limited action.

The guys wins the match, and everyone is acting like they haven't won a frigging bet before. But they all still WON.

So to me that is the bottomline. No matter what number, line, or odds you get, as long as you win, 99% of the guys are happy. The only time it matters is when the line change hurts you in terms of a winner or a loser, and then it is just bad luck. But it is also the time that is is even noticed. Guys didn't say word one about not getting a better line, or betting "too early", all they cared about was cashing.

 

[Dante]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by THE SHRINK:
Yes you are more "SQUARE" Dante because most people know that the SHARPEST NUMBER is only defined by how much of an advantage the player has over the CLOSING LINE, and not 30 minutes before it, period...

THE SHRINK <HR></BLOCKQUOTE> ok well at least I have plenty of company