Sharps, set Wednesday lines before they come out...

[PatrickMcIrish]

Good drill for us squares, gets you thinking about where the numbers should be before they are posted. Did this a lot during baseball to help keep me thinking, will start doing it for baskets from time to time as well. Lot of sharp players here, I bet we will be amazed by how close some cappers are. Anyway here's my lines, this is just doing it quickly and not looking up injuires and so on....




723 MICHIGAN STATE 5
724 PENN STATE

725 SOUTH FLORIDA
726 PITTSBURGH 23

727 DUKE 14
728 GEORGIA TECH

729 OHIO
730 MIAMI OHIO 11-

731 HOFSTRA
732 DREXEL 4

733 RICHMOND
734 VIRGINIA TECH 7

735 ST. JOSEPHS 1
736 ST. BONAVENTURE

737 VA COMMONWEALTH 7
738 TOWSON

739 TEMPLE 8
740 PENNSYLVANIA

741 GEORGE WASHINGTON
742 DUQUESNE 12

743 BOWLING GREEN
744 KENT STATE 4-

745 NC WILMINGTON
746 JAMES MADISON 16

747 TOLEDO
748 WESTERN MICHIGAN 7

749 GEORGE MASON 13
750 WILLIAM & MARY

751 LA SALLE
752 CHARLOTTE 4

753 FORDHAM
754 DAYTON 25-

755 RUTGERS
756 CINCINNATI 12-

757 SYRACUSE
758 GEORGETOWN 5

759 WEST VIRGINIA 11
760 MARSHALL

761 SAN DIEGO STATE 6-
762 WYOMING

763 SO MISSISSIPPI 5
764 TULANE

765 ARKANSAS
766 MISSISSIPPI 3

767 SMU
768 RICE 3-

769 FLORIDA 2
770 AUBURN

771 SOUTH CAROLINA
772 LSU PK

773 DRAKE
774 ILLINOIS STATE 6-

775 NEBRASKA
776 IOWA STATE PK

777 SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
778 CREIGHTON 11

779 MASSACHUSETTS
780 SAINT LOUIS 3

781 ALABAMA
782 MISSISSIPPI STATE 7-

783 WICHITA STATE
784 MISSOURI STATE 5-

785 GEORGIA
786 VANDERBILT 11

787 MICHIGAN
788 ILLINOIS 8

789 COLORADO
790 MISSOURI 21

791 MARYLAND
792 MIAMI FLORIDA 8-

793 UNLV 5
794 COLORADO STATE

795 HOUSTON
796 UTEP 4

797 WAKE FOREST 5
798 BOSTON COLLEGE

799 BAYLOR 3-
800 TEXAS A&M

801 CS NORTHRIDGE
802 CAL RIVERSIDE 1-

803 UTAH 10
804 AIR FORCE

 

[Swift456]

Good drill for us squares, gets you thinking about where the numbers should be before they are posted. Did this a lot during baseball to help keep me thinking, will start doing it for baskets from time to time as well. Lot of sharp players here, I bet we will be amazed by how close some cappers are. Anyway here's my lines, this is just doing it quickly and not looking up injuires and so on....




723 MICHIGAN STATE 5
724 PENN STATE

725 SOUTH FLORIDA
726 PITTSBURGH 23

727 DUKE 14
728 GEORGIA TECH

729 OHIO
730 MIAMI OHIO 11-

731 HOFSTRA
732 DREXEL 4

733 RICHMOND
734 VIRGINIA TECH 7

735 ST. JOSEPHS 1
736 ST. BONAVENTURE

737 VA COMMONWEALTH 7
738 TOWSON

739 TEMPLE 8
740 PENNSYLVANIA

741 GEORGE WASHINGTON
742 DUQUESNE 12

743 BOWLING GREEN
744 KENT STATE 4-

745 NC WILMINGTON
746 JAMES MADISON 16

747 TOLEDO
748 WESTERN MICHIGAN 7

749 GEORGE MASON 13
750 WILLIAM & MARY

751 LA SALLE
752 CHARLOTTE 4

753 FORDHAM
754 DAYTON 25-

755 RUTGERS
756 CINCINNATI 12-

757 SYRACUSE
758 GEORGETOWN 5

759 WEST VIRGINIA 11
760 MARSHALL

761 SAN DIEGO STATE 6-
762 WYOMING

763 SO MISSISSIPPI 5
764 TULANE

765 ARKANSAS
766 MISSISSIPPI 3

767 SMU
768 RICE 3-

769 FLORIDA 2
770 AUBURN

771 SOUTH CAROLINA
772 LSU PK

773 DRAKE
774 ILLINOIS STATE 6-

775 NEBRASKA
776 IOWA STATE PK

777 SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
778 CREIGHTON 11

779 MASSACHUSETTS
780 SAINT LOUIS 3

781 ALABAMA
782 MISSISSIPPI STATE 7-

783 WICHITA STATE
784 MISSOURI STATE 5-

785 GEORGIA
786 VANDERBILT 11

787 MICHIGAN
788 ILLINOIS 8

789 COLORADO
790 MISSOURI 21

791 MARYLAND
792 MIAMI FLORIDA 8-

793 UNLV 5
794 COLORADO STATE

795 HOUSTON
796 UTEP 4

797 WAKE FOREST 5
798 BOSTON COLLEGE

799 BAYLOR 3-
800 TEXAS A&M

801 CS NORTHRIDGE
802 CAL RIVERSIDE 1-

803 UTAH 10
804 AIR FORCE

wow I love Wake forest tommorow
at 5 if it gets that....I think it will be Wake about -8

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

wow I love Wake forest tommorow
at 5 if it gets that....I think it will be Wake about -8

You could very well be right sir, I might have given too much credit for BC being at home. I usually compare what I have to what Bookmaker has when they first open their lines. First time this year so I'm rusty, LOL. That said I will take BC +8 or more if that is indeed the line.


:toast:

 

[krk1030]

Cincy should not be giving 12 points to anyone.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

Cincy should not be giving 12 points to anyone.

And the proper line would be?? Might be too high but I've seen Rutgers play twice this year and was VERY unimpressed. That's the thing with doing this, your personal bias comes out at times. The good thing is when the lines open you can see how far off you are and on which games. Not easy to set a card like this, always going to be mistakes unless you're a pro, I am not one. Probably should have picked a night where there wasn't as many games to kick this off, no way am I up to date on injuires and so on for all these teams, just throwing something out there we can form opinions on. I hope HomeDawg and other top cappers give this a shot, be interested to see how close they can come on the games.

 

[Railbird]

looks pretty good Pat. Do you have your own poweratings? Do you look at other powerratings if so which one. I think it is crazy to suggest someone can have accurate numbers on 330 teams.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

Yeah Rail I have used my own power stuff for a while now. I tinker with them but frankly they are only of marginal use for picking sides. As you will see several games will be well off the line, from there I go in and cap those games in more detail. Usually there will be an injury or some other explanation for it if the lines are not close. If I played these numbers blindly I would get killed but it does help to have a starting point so I'm not trying to cap every game on a big card. Guys like you and some others probably do it off the top of your head, I'm not able to do that in college hoops at this point. This saves me a lot of time but that's about it, not a tool you can use blindly and expect to win with.

 

[Railbird]

Kent -7
Miami O 10.5
W.Michigan 9.5
WVU 16.5
Mich st 9
Pitt 20.5
Temple 8
vpi 5.5
dule 12.5
gmas 13
rice 6
aub pk
ill st 9
uncc 6
cicny 9
unlv 7
utep 7
utah 8
Riverside 4.5
baylor 6
wakeforest 12

I try to get the winner, not the best number. Also like to play on or against teams I have seen in person, meaning at the venue not on television.

 

[Railbird]

Yeah Rail I have used my own power stuff for a while now. I tinker with them but frankly they are only of marginal use for picking sides. As you will see several games will be well off the line, from there I go in and cap those games in more detail. Usually there will be an injury or some other explanation for it if the lines are not close. If I played these numbers blindly I would get killed but it does help to have a starting point so I'm not trying to cap every game on a big card. Guys like you and some others probably do it off the top of your head, I'm not able to do that in college hoops at this point. This saves me a lot of time but that's about it, not a tool you can use blindly and expect to win with.

I think you get much more out of the sights and sounds of a real life game, than scouring boxscores.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

Good stuff, I will look them over and compare it to what I have. Be interesting to see what some of these games open at.

 

[Railbird]

I think it would be fun to see everyones powerratings, more than there selections.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

Wake Forest laying 12? Wow, I'll be all over that one if your line is correct Rail. You're the 2nd one that has mentioned it though, maybe my 5 is a bit low? Often when a team like this comes off a big win like they did in beating NC the public will overvalue them for their next game. I don't think BC is going to be as easy as some of you are expecting, in fact they may win this game straight up IMO.

 

[Railbird]

Im sure it will be lower than 12, I just think wake wins 12-15

 

[Railbird]

Im listening to John Kelly archive right now, he made a good point about TCU beating UNLV. Coach Christian scouted UNLV at Kent for a week in 1st round of playoffs and is now at TCU. ITs gems like that, that I like to find.

 

[GimmeDattt]

I do the same thing but in a different way. I don't try to set the line. I try to set what I would play each team at. Example:

Syracuse @ G-Town
Syracuse +5.5
G-Town -2

That means I will play Syr any line at +5.5 or above and G-Town any line -2 or less. I have to say I have been fairly successful getting it to land right in the middle.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

Rail, you know your shit man, no doubt about that in my mind. Whatever is working I'd stick with it.


Gimme - if you have time set a few games if you can. I know you can't do the whole card but if you can go in and throw some numbers out for certain games that would be cool. I saw your record posted, you have had a hell of a year so far. As for what you are saying, I am posting what my numbers suggest the games should be at. Any significant deviation off these lines gets me to step 2 where I look more indepth. I think we are doing the same thing, just going about it differently.

 

[GimmeDattt]

Rail, you know your shit man, no doubt about that in my mind. Whatever is working I'd stick with it.


Gimme - if you have time set a few games if you can. I know you can't do the whole card but if you can go in and throw some numbers out for certain games that would be cool. I saw your record posted, you have had a hell of a year so far. As for what you are saying, I am posting what my numbers suggest the games should be at. Any significant deviation off these lines gets me to step 2 where I look more indepth. I think we are doing the same thing, just going about it differently.

Yea, I understand. I used to do it the way that you and most people do it. However, I just found that my ability to guess the lines and the inaccuracies didn't translate into winning. So about 2 years ago I changed and have had much success.

I will do a few right now.

 

[GimmeDattt]

Syracuse @ G-Town
Syracuse +5.5
G-Town -2

Michigan St @ Penn St
Michigan St -4
Penn St +10

So Florida @ Pitt
So Fla +24
Pitt -16

Duke @ Georgia Tech
Duke -5.5
Georgia Tech +13

Michigan @ Illinois
Michigan +6
Illinois -2.5

Wake Forest @ BC
Wake -4
BC +9.5


These are just at first glance. Typically tomorrow night I will go through and adjust based on what I get from capping the game.

 

[BBBILLY]

Patrick, nice thread you've started here. I wish we had more guys that focused on let's say one or two conferences. I make numbers for the games as well and may chime in from time to time, particularly on big 12 games. My number on Kansas is 7 so basically a no play for me. Thanks!

BBB

 

[jimmyshivers]

good thread.. my acc lines based on my perception of each team. Not trying to guess the lines but just showing what I will base my plays off of

Duke @ Georgia Tech
strong play on Duke @ -8
Line @ Duke -11
strong on GT @ +14

Richmond @ VPI
stong play on Richmond @ +7.5
Line @ VT -4
Strong play on VT @ -1.5

Wake @ BC
strong play on Wake @ -2
Line @ Wake -5
strong play on BC @ +8

UMD @ Miami
strong play on Maryland @ 8.5
Line @ Miami -6
strong play on Miami @ -3

Thursday:
UNC @ UVA
strong play on UNC @ -9
Line @ UNC -12
strong play on UVA @ +16

These numbers arent based on anything on a computer; I go by watching the teams. I create my lines based on situation, current form, and how the matchup is for the team involved. hope this helps