always good read from Nick!
DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
SHARPS ACT QUICKLY ON COLLEGE RULES CHANGES
Many in Las Vegas and Reno were wondering how the sharps would bet college football totals once they came up.
You have probably heard by now that there were rules changes involving the game clock and out-of-bounds plays that could significantly influence scoring in college games this year. I’ve heard a lot of debate about this the past few days. The media was talking about it. Coaches were talking about it. And, Nevada oddsmakers were trying to figure out how to anticipate the betting action based on what gamblers were most likely thinking.
If the early returns are any indication, the oddsmakers didn’t adjust enough!
Some Unders have just been nailed this week by Las Vegas professionals. Here’s a sampling from some of the Thursday and Friday games:
*UTEP/Buffalo opened at 64 and dropped to 59
*NC State/South Carolina opened at 50.5, and dropped to 45.5
*Wake Forest/Baylor opened at 52.5 and dropped to 50.5
*Oregon State/Stanford opened at 49 and dropped to 46
*Troy/Middle Tennessee opened at 58.5 and dropped to 53
We haven’t seen many moves of that size in the Saturday games. That could mean a few different things. Most likely, many of the sharps want to see what happens Thursday Night before investing more in the Saturday action. If Thursday and Friday are low scoring, you can bet that Saturday totals will be dropping like a rock.
What strikes me most from that listing is that it runs the full gamut of styles. Totals dropped in games involving conservative teams. Totals dropped in games involving wide open teams. Totals dropped in games involving experienced quarterbacks. Totals dropped in games involving new starting quarterbacks. And, of course, there weren’t any totals going up!
This suggests very strongly that professional wagerers see a HUGE impact coming from the changes. That would surprise many coaches and TV reporters. I heard a lot of guys saying that this would allow fast-paced teams to go even faster. Officials would all be hurrying to get the ball in play quickly every down because the play clock was running. This would all up-tempo teams to squeeze in even more plays than they were getting. Some pundits thought more and more teams would go to a no-huddle offense, leading to a wild and crazy year.
That’s not what I was hearing from sharps I respect.
They agree that a handful of up-tempo teams might do this, at least in the first half or when playing from behind. But, most tended to agree that scoring would go down, and total play volume would go down. The changes make it very easy for the team with a lead to run out the clock. They just have to keep moving the chains and taking the full 40 seconds off the play clock. Should a kid make a mistake and run out of bounds, that’s not much of a penalty any more. They still get to run 25 seconds off the clock after the ball is ready for play.
Think about the NFL for a second. Almost every offense takes as much time off the clock as they can. The goal is to shorten the game, and have a lead when that quick game ends. Indianapolis runs a no-huddle offense. But, it’s not a wild and crazy offense with a million plays. They just get set up without a huddle, then run the clock down as far as possible unless they’re playing from behind. College football will start trending toward that style of play.
You can just imagine conservative coaches thrilled at the chance to take 10 minutes off the clock in the fourth quarter without even driving the whole field. Not all coaches will do this. I can think of 15-20 off the top of my head who are going to be trying to do that even if the game is tied or they’re trailing. Limiting the other team’s possessions is a key hallmark of good defense.
Should you run to the nearest sportsbook and start betting Unders? Well, most of the value is obviously gone in those games that have moved five points. It could turn out that the rules changes are so dramatic the moves needed to be 10 points instead. I’d rather wait to see some evidence of that before betting that far behind the early curve. And, it could turn out that some teams pick up their pace in a way that increases scoring. Some of those five-point moves may have been mistakes…and the value is betting Over right now.
To me, the best approach is to assume the sharps are probably right, then react with more confidence once you see some games being played. This is just the first week of the season after all. There will be plenty of time to exploit this advantage the rest of the way. Sure, oddsmakers will be posting lower totals if they need to. They’re likely to miss the nuances though…as certain coaches and certain styles of play will skew scoring totals in very dramatic ways.
I’d say it this way:
*We may start to see a lot of 16-13 type defensive struggles. It’s going to take a long time to drop totals in the mid 40’s down to the mid 30’s. And, the mid 30’s may not be enough of a drop in games involving the most conservative defensive-minded teams.
*We may start to see high scoring shootouts that end 31-28 rather than the crazy 45-42 type games we’ve see saw last year when spread offenses played each other (many games were even higher than that). It will take awhile for the public to accept that those games with totals of 72 or more should now be in the low 60’s.
*We may start to see a lot of 24-3 first halve that lead to a 31-3 final score. The first half was played like last year’s style, but then the leading team focused on grinding out the clock instead. Guys who bet first halves and second halves will be able to take advantage of that easily. And, the full game totals will be tough to gauge because it’s hard to have a high team side spread and a low total on the same game. Blowouts that used to end up in the 50’s may now end up in the high 30’s or low 40’s. Be patient, and look for edges as they present themselves. The fact that you missed the the first five or six big totals moves of the season doesn’t mean the train left the station without you.
DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
SHARPS ACT QUICKLY ON COLLEGE RULES CHANGES
Many in Las Vegas and Reno were wondering how the sharps would bet college football totals once they came up.
You have probably heard by now that there were rules changes involving the game clock and out-of-bounds plays that could significantly influence scoring in college games this year. I’ve heard a lot of debate about this the past few days. The media was talking about it. Coaches were talking about it. And, Nevada oddsmakers were trying to figure out how to anticipate the betting action based on what gamblers were most likely thinking.
If the early returns are any indication, the oddsmakers didn’t adjust enough!
Some Unders have just been nailed this week by Las Vegas professionals. Here’s a sampling from some of the Thursday and Friday games:
*UTEP/Buffalo opened at 64 and dropped to 59
*NC State/South Carolina opened at 50.5, and dropped to 45.5
*Wake Forest/Baylor opened at 52.5 and dropped to 50.5
*Oregon State/Stanford opened at 49 and dropped to 46
*Troy/Middle Tennessee opened at 58.5 and dropped to 53
We haven’t seen many moves of that size in the Saturday games. That could mean a few different things. Most likely, many of the sharps want to see what happens Thursday Night before investing more in the Saturday action. If Thursday and Friday are low scoring, you can bet that Saturday totals will be dropping like a rock.
What strikes me most from that listing is that it runs the full gamut of styles. Totals dropped in games involving conservative teams. Totals dropped in games involving wide open teams. Totals dropped in games involving experienced quarterbacks. Totals dropped in games involving new starting quarterbacks. And, of course, there weren’t any totals going up!
This suggests very strongly that professional wagerers see a HUGE impact coming from the changes. That would surprise many coaches and TV reporters. I heard a lot of guys saying that this would allow fast-paced teams to go even faster. Officials would all be hurrying to get the ball in play quickly every down because the play clock was running. This would all up-tempo teams to squeeze in even more plays than they were getting. Some pundits thought more and more teams would go to a no-huddle offense, leading to a wild and crazy year.
That’s not what I was hearing from sharps I respect.
They agree that a handful of up-tempo teams might do this, at least in the first half or when playing from behind. But, most tended to agree that scoring would go down, and total play volume would go down. The changes make it very easy for the team with a lead to run out the clock. They just have to keep moving the chains and taking the full 40 seconds off the play clock. Should a kid make a mistake and run out of bounds, that’s not much of a penalty any more. They still get to run 25 seconds off the clock after the ball is ready for play.
Think about the NFL for a second. Almost every offense takes as much time off the clock as they can. The goal is to shorten the game, and have a lead when that quick game ends. Indianapolis runs a no-huddle offense. But, it’s not a wild and crazy offense with a million plays. They just get set up without a huddle, then run the clock down as far as possible unless they’re playing from behind. College football will start trending toward that style of play.
You can just imagine conservative coaches thrilled at the chance to take 10 minutes off the clock in the fourth quarter without even driving the whole field. Not all coaches will do this. I can think of 15-20 off the top of my head who are going to be trying to do that even if the game is tied or they’re trailing. Limiting the other team’s possessions is a key hallmark of good defense.
Should you run to the nearest sportsbook and start betting Unders? Well, most of the value is obviously gone in those games that have moved five points. It could turn out that the rules changes are so dramatic the moves needed to be 10 points instead. I’d rather wait to see some evidence of that before betting that far behind the early curve. And, it could turn out that some teams pick up their pace in a way that increases scoring. Some of those five-point moves may have been mistakes…and the value is betting Over right now.
To me, the best approach is to assume the sharps are probably right, then react with more confidence once you see some games being played. This is just the first week of the season after all. There will be plenty of time to exploit this advantage the rest of the way. Sure, oddsmakers will be posting lower totals if they need to. They’re likely to miss the nuances though…as certain coaches and certain styles of play will skew scoring totals in very dramatic ways.
I’d say it this way:
*We may start to see a lot of 16-13 type defensive struggles. It’s going to take a long time to drop totals in the mid 40’s down to the mid 30’s. And, the mid 30’s may not be enough of a drop in games involving the most conservative defensive-minded teams.
*We may start to see high scoring shootouts that end 31-28 rather than the crazy 45-42 type games we’ve see saw last year when spread offenses played each other (many games were even higher than that). It will take awhile for the public to accept that those games with totals of 72 or more should now be in the low 60’s.
*We may start to see a lot of 24-3 first halve that lead to a 31-3 final score. The first half was played like last year’s style, but then the leading team focused on grinding out the clock instead. Guys who bet first halves and second halves will be able to take advantage of that easily. And, the full game totals will be tough to gauge because it’s hard to have a high team side spread and a low total on the same game. Blowouts that used to end up in the 50’s may now end up in the high 30’s or low 40’s. Be patient, and look for edges as they present themselves. The fact that you missed the the first five or six big totals moves of the season doesn’t mean the train left the station without you.
