Sharp vs Square

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The Great Govenor of California
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No such thing IMO. You can rate handicappers 1-100. Its like saying fast runners vs Slow runners. Someone who runs a 4.9 40 is pretty fast against an old lady. Someone who runs a 4.6 40 makes the 4.9 guy look slow. And so on and so on.

So when someone says I am sharp, I take the dog and under, that is pretty vauge. If your playing against weak numbers you dont have to be very sharp to win.
 

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I'm going to disagree.

Sharp bettors win. Very sharp bettors win a lot. Squares lose.

Sharps play with positive expectation. Squares play with negative expectation.

Tons of very knowledgable sports guys/cappers out there that are squares. The reason is simple. The scoreboard shows results in one key category. $$$$$$$$$$$.
 

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Fezzik - Positive expectation is a nice term, but one that depends on whether or not a bettor can handicap well enough to gain a PE. Instinctive insight into what may or may not happen in any given contest is what I consider being sharp. You either have a feel for numbers, and situations or you don't. Research and analysis are key for handicapping baseball for example. How well teams do against the opposing pitchers in various situations. Lefty/righty stats, home/away, even day/night. With enough work a good handicapper can predict what hitter has the highest probability to have success against a certain pitcher and vice versa. Sharp is being on the right side enough to insure you reach PE enough to come out suficiently ahead at the end of a season to make all the work worth while. Just my 2 cents.


wil.

[This message was edited by wilheim on April 16, 2004 at 03:06 AM.]
 

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Some female called me a SQUARE because I bet more small chalk then I play dogs, and because I have been winning for many years doing this, in 3 different sports, so I must be a Square.....I have to say, that maybe she is right.
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I think I have found a bit to much success doing what I do to be considered SHARP by any means, anyways....LOL.


Anyways, my opinion when it comes to this issue, is that I dont care what I am Sharp or Square,....as long as I come out ahead of the game, small or large, is all that matters to me.....When I cap a game out, hitting as much angles, addressing as much situations, crunching as much numbers as I can, then factoring in the number put out,....and only after I am done with all this shit, and my brain is about to explode, althewhile trying to keep an open mind towards both the dog and the favs, and not just trying to justify playing a dog or a fav, but simply to letting the advantages and disadvantages listed for each team to determine what is a better call for me, ONLY then will I play it. The more advantages to disadvantages, the higher the value play it will be for me. Plus, the advantages on a side have to be strong ones and be overwhelming against the other, for it to even be a play for me.....This intense work, the Square player, I feel will not venture in to, all the time.....Like they say, what you put in is what you get out....and that to me is one determinant of a Square vs a Sharp or Smart Player...

I have been playing more small favs lately, as I think this type of game is at an almost even terms between the teams which the books feel that the public or people in general will see as a good match or even match and hence such a small number.......After I do all my capping, I will just simply come out and follow the side that, like I mentioned have the majority of the advantages over the other....Ironically, it has been mostly the small chalks which I have found to have the advantages......I think that to just simply play all dogs or majority of dogs may be something that a Square or person who is trying to beat the house based on non-handicapping techniques is just trying to do...and that to me is square and not smart.....A Sharp or Smart Capper will know how to back up and find these advantages that justify and support his decision to play a certain game.....The Square will not go to the extreme or put in all their efforts to do this, but mainly justify their play on public info or obvious facts, instead of looking for more of that hidden facts or intangibles to support or be in addition to the obvious ones as well......A Sharp or Smart player looks for the not so obvious things, mainly done through hard work and research, and not just on public information given through newspaper articles or TV commentators.......

I feel, that a Sharp person or a smart sports investor will also handicap to find advantages, which will also eliminate their chance for risk as much as possible....He will let this work in capping a matchup fully to determine what it is that will bring him confidence in the game and his selection....But, you also need to have what I like to call a feel for the game as well.....This feel is almost like an instinctive type of feel which you are able to simply have, which will lead you hopefully in the direction of the best play. It will also allow one to pick up and insightfully see the majority of the advantages one team may have over another, before they even look at the stats or information, etc......It is like your in the groove, the loop, the zone, so to speak, where you are so immersed in what is going on in a particular sport that the best plays come to you almost naturally. Of course this by no means will guarantee anyone success alone, but like I mentioned it could lead you into the right direction for the majority of the time......A perfect example of this groove can be seen in the lack of immediate success when a Capper now ventures into another sport...This slow start is primarily because they arent quite yet in that groove of this particular sport, its teams, its players, its situations, etc, which are continually occurring and changing, as they try to adjust or get a feel for......Then later, as the Smart players gets more information and more insightful on the current sport they are now capping, the good ones are then able to simply allow themselves to get into this groove(zone), giving them the better chance at hitting a higher percentage of their games.

Now to me a person who is able to do this is one who I call Sharp, because he knows what is going on and what it is that will eventually happen. He also knows how to stay focused and confident in his abilities and knows what he needs to do to synergize himself into what is happening.....The Square to me is unaware of this groove or the importance of getting into it....They constantly are fighting this movement into the groove of the sport, by allowing himself or herself to be affected mentally by what is happening outside of the game itself.....This person who gets influenced or allows outside influences, which sometime is an influence that is due to their own negative thinking, to affect them, will never be in that area of the groove.....Still, the Square or uneducated player will of course also be unaware that this groove even exist and thus continues to struggle, fight, create negative thinking, buy into false or inaccurate beliefs and ideas that is being thrown at him constantly and mainly from outside influence, which then indirectly and directly causes him to be confused and uncertain, consciously as well as unconsciously......and this confusion and uncertainty is what the books all want you to be in.....Because when confusion and uncertainty exist, bad decision making an impulsive actions will usually occur.....and thus it leads to more loses to the unaware Square player.

Anyway, this type of thing is very hard to explain and I think I may have even screwed up what the hell I am trying to say....Dam I am such a freakin Square ASS. LOL....Anyways, for me it is these simple rules that I will try and follow each time I hit the books to cap a game......That is to be very aware of what is going on from Coaches on down to the Players, and especially the CHEERLEADERS(just kidding).
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Always keep an open mind in order to see things that are not visible or readable. Dont buy in so much to what the media is saying. Stay away from uneducated peoples opinions, always remember that what YOU put IN is what YOU get OUT, have fun, keep your emotions in check as best you can, and lastly let my capping abilities and what results come out from it, determine what plays are best to invest in and nothing else. This of course is JMO, TFWIW, but also know that it doesnt explain completely by any means some of the other differences between a Sharp Player and a Square Player........Please carry on, this is a good discussion inwhich to learn a lot of valuable information and insights in being successful at beating the MAN.........Aloha CC.
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BTW, I completely agree with what Wilheim stated in his post and feel that he makes very good and important points.

[This message was edited by Co-Captain on April 16, 2004 at 06:19 AM.]
 

The Great Govenor of California
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Im not going to play baseball for the first time in 20 years, reason is I dont need to. I have beat Golf 20 straight weeks, I have beat Tennis 11 out of 12 months, I dont need the agravation of a sport like nba or mlb that is not a game based on merit, but a game manipulated by umpires or refs.
 

Rx. Senior
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Rail,
stick with your strengths. You kick ass in your tennis picks, and I don't see you post a lot of golf.
 

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I agree with most of what has been said so far, including what appears to be contradictory views.

I think Fezzik is saying that the zero expectation point is a good place to put the dividing line between sharps and squares. Problem is that we can never know what our expectation really is, so in many cases we cannot know whether it is positive or negative. While to have a mathematically provable positive expectation is possible (ie. middling) it is almost certainly not the way to maximize EV. Those with the highest EVs have EVs which are very hard to estimate.

As the years pass mathematical skill in sports betting is becoming less and less important IMO because of the ever-increasing efficiency of the markets. If you are smart enough to use low-juice shops and shop for lines you are getting at least 80% of the edge available from mathematical angles. To increase EV beyond that you need to understand the sports IMO.

I think Railbird operates with the highest EV on the Rx even though his mathematical skills are nothing to write home about (correct me if I'm wrong). Co-captain IMO is also up there in EV and again nothing special math-wise (am I right?). A mathematician-type is MUCH better off learning more about what these guys do than by honing his math skills further IMO.

I consider myself a math-type and this is the direction I would like to develop in anyway.
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Fezzik:
I'm going to disagree.

Sharp bettors win. Very sharp bettors win a lot. Squares lose.

Sharps play with positive expectation. Squares play with negative expectation.

Tons of very knowledgable sports guys/cappers out there that are squares. The reason is simple. The scoreboard shows results in one key category. $$$$$$$$$$$.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

That brings up an an interesting question...can a square win (over the long-haul)? Is profit vs. loss the sole determining factor between sharp vs. square? It's semantics I suppose, but I don't think so. A square who somehow has good insight, feel may win a little betting into clone or worse lines. Of course that person would win more, a lot more, betting into softer number. Is that person sharp because they won? Or are they still square because they should be winning a lot more?
 

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Who cares? Sharp, square, triangle, dull. Would you rather be a dumb winner or a smart loser?

A consistent winner is sharp in that sport.
A consistent loser is square in that sport.

Somebody that can break even is half sharp.
So many people rationalize that even though they lost they made some really smart picks and got boned but they are still sharp. Duh?
 

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Aloha Darryl,

You are right I hate Math and numbers that are used to cap games...that explains why I usually do not ever use a system with numbers to come to select any games I play....If anything, it would be use just as another way to back my old fashion handicapping ways, if my selection agrees with this system using numbers....I have seen some systems that do predict, based on numbers only, the outcome of the games to a very good degree, but I cant find it in myself to have confidence in using this method. Still though, I am very impressed how they can do this, without the human emotional and situational element, not to mention the intangibles into the mix of their calculations...I try to put everything into the mix when I cap games, the emotions, situations, the matchups, the coaches and players, and then compare the numbers of each vs eachother, and so forth...

I guess I wouldn't use just math or number systems, because I am also a former sports player, and I feel more at home with finding a groove with the team and matchups and the situations which presents them, as it is easy for me to put myself in their position and also to understand what they will be facing, based on my previous experiences in that similar situation once...I guess my experience being a coach and a player helps me to break down and analyse the games from a player and a coaches view which allows me to see the game playing out in my head, which will then be supported by the numbers and stats and the matchups between players, etc...

Btw, and sorry for my ignorance, as it is early in the morning here in Hawaii, but what does EV stand for again.....And also, You yourself are a math guy right, but that you see more value in the way I am capping games....I am just trying to understand what you have wrote, as you seem to be a person of high intelligence and I just wanted to understand more what you stated, if you dont mind sharing more of your insights into this...Aloha CC.

[This message was edited by Co-Captain on April 16, 2004 at 11:15 AM.]
 

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I'm going to disagree with several things that were said.

Many think that to be a "sharp" you have to do oodles of handicapping. No. To be a very sharp bettor you have to be able to win a lot of money. Competency in sports betting is based solely on one factor: Long term RESULTS.

Plenty of sharp guys with little to no handicapping ability were winnning, and are winning tons of money with no real handicapping abilities. Are they square? No. I'd argue some of the squarest sharps I know are the ones who eke out small profits by handicapping 10 hours a day, work really hard, and make nothing since they never seem to spot any good mathematical plays like correlated hockey parlays and **********************, etc.

They just grind along thinking they are at the top of the food chain, and quite simply they are not. The bozo in Wendover Nevada who stumbles out of bed still drunk, staggers to the sportsbook and bets all the lines that are off by 2 points is "sharper". It is he that is playing with the higher expectation, and kudos to him for going fishing "where the fish are".
 

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Handicapping, the term, is way overrated IMO. Its a numbers game to me. One can be successful at sports betting and never know the name of any player on any team.
 

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Aloha CC,

EV means "expected value" and is the term which quantifies how much one expects to win, sometimes expressed as a percentage of the total amount bet but often expressed as simply the amount of money you expect to have at a certain point in time. If your EV was +2% and the total amounts of your bets for a year was $1 million, then you would expect to be ahead by $20,000 on the year.

Expectation has a strict mathematical meaning and it is simply the average of all possible outcomes. For example if I flip a biased coin twice and each time heads have a probability of 55% of coming up I can use EV to decide whether it is better to bet $100 on each flip separately or make a $100 parlay (assuming I bet heads each time).

If I bet separately my EV will be .55*200 = $110 on each flip, or $220 total or +$20

If I make the parlay it will be .55*.55*400 = $121 or +$21

Some say this proves that it is better to bet parlays when you know you have an advantage. I say this is not true because you can make larger straight bets and still have smaller variance than with the parlay. In the case above you could make straight bets of $120 instead of $100 and you'd have an EV of +$24 which beats the parlay but your variance would still be less. Variance relates closely to your risk of going broke for a given bankroll, so to summarize, you have the luxury of making larger bets with less risk of going broke if you do straight bets as opposed to parlays. And to a gambler this is all that matters -- maximizing EV and minimizing the chance of going broke.

In your case I would say you are less able to articulate or estimate your EV than a math guy like myself, but that does not change the fact that your EV is very high because of your ability to synthesize all the subjective factors into an accurate prediction. There is huge value there but it does not lend itself to analysis well.

A good example is Kevin Brown of the Yankees. When he was interviewed about the trade he said something like "I'm as excited as a little kid". If we believe his expression of emotion to be true then it has huge value even though there isn't a single statistic to support it yet. (well now there is because he has played 3 games in 2004 but I'm talking before the season started). Someone like yourself incorporates these sorts of things into his capping and that adds value. Someone who relies on statistics alone will miss it and therefore will operate on a lower EV than someone who analyses stats equally well AND incorporates such info. as well.

Maybe you could improve your EV by paying attention to the overall variance of various betting mechanisms and other math-type stuff but I am saying that the math guys could probably improve their EV even more by looking more into what you are doing that they aren't.

In any case the more we discuss this stuff the better off we all are, and I think subjective sports guys and math guys should talk to each other more because they have more to learn from the other type than their own type IMO.
 

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A good "sharp" gauge. You go 3 months, and you have lost money.

A very rare circumstance for the very sharp.

A not uncommon circumstance for the square sharp.

A common circumstance for the square.
 

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In the most simplistic terms, over the long haul, sharps win and squares lose. It doesn't matter the amount wagered, just the long term results. I know a lot of large players that are square and lose consistently and a lot of small players that are sharp and win consistently and have built a substantial bankroll over time. There are a lot of ways to be sharp and achieve success in this business. The size of your bankroll is no indication as to whether you are sharp or square.
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Handicapping, the term, is way overrated IMO. Its a numbers game to me. One can be successful at sports betting and never know the name of any player on any team. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Knowing the numbers has an enormous effect determining success, however knowing how to apply these stats in particular situations is far more meaningful. You hear constantly over the past few years Pedro is 22-3 following a loss, (has little meaning)!!!! The important fact would be knowing the team that inflicted the loss and the 22 he faced afterward...were it Tampa Bay...who cares!!!! had it been New York then you may be on to something...
Regarding Sharps and Squares...90% of the time I hear this phrase used as a derogatory remark attached to someone having a different opinion (side) My belief is there are Putters and Takers.. Those that feed the book and those that feed from!!!!
 

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I just see it this way. Someone can know every stat, every player on the roster, every trend, & every meal the team eats before each game, and still only hit 55-56%, and that is considered a "sharp". Sometimes we think we know every angle of a game, and just know there is no way it can lose, but we are wrong so many times. Fact is, none of us have a crystal ball. Heck, I was in Carib's NFL handicapping contest this year, and my record was very strong, but some of those guys started out unreal and just couldn't lose. Much of the time it's just the way the chips fall, not what we "think" we know.........
 
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Great topic, IMO it is mostly a perception. I have been labeled a sharp most of my career. I think the biggest difference is not even your results, but what side you are on. A sharp is on the wise guy side, the square is with the public. This is especially true here, and somewhat offshore. When working casino sportsbooks there is always a fair amount of each. You have a bunch of sharps, hovering like vultures waiting for the squares to push that public number just 1/2 higher, or 10 cents higher. You have all of the casino losers full of free drinks, chasing their losses, and beleive me, they can be free toke askers or 10 dime limits. I used to ask the managers, why are my limits so much lower than square guy. Answer, go drop 10 large on the tables, we will raise your limits. Sort of a square whale. Sometimes the whale hit the open water, but most often he gets harpooned and washes ashore, getting beached. Normal square plays, road favorites, laying heavy juice and following the movement, way after the crowd. The sharps are taking the dog, the get off the other side after movement and usually something contrarian. Offshore I hear I knew you were sharp when I saw your first 10 plays. And they were overall losers. But the swing games swing the other way, and boom. Being perceived as sharp was always my ultimate goal. I could not have been more wrong. Being perceived as sharp gets you watched, a different, or tighter set of lines, limits cut and worse case, 86'd. After learning being perceived as sharp was not it was all cracked up to be, I changed my goal to being profitable consistently. I would much rather meet that bottom line, than being sharp, which again, is just a label, or a perception. In fact, I would rather be known as a square. I get better bonuses, can reup and profit, which is sweet. Having a 30-40 dime makeup figure before you get reup bonus is undesirable to my main goal. I need every cent to remain profitable consistently. I am perceived as sharp crushing a book? Met the old goal. Can I profit by deposting there anymore, nope. Not helping new goal. A longtime sportsbook manager once pulled me aside and said froggy, "You are a great guy, you tip my writers, you are always freindly and everyone likes you, but you are too sharp, and unless you maintain a low profile, under our radar screen, you are history here." That one episode changed my goals, and I have desired to be as square as possible, or at least try to be perceived that way. Best Wishes...OF
 

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