Sharp Plays for Week 14 (YTD: 71-45 +$4,715.18)

[VoiceofReason101]

YTD: 71-45 +$4,715.18

Week 2: 8-2-1 (+$236)
Week 3: 8-3 (+$438)
Week 4: 5-4 (-405) (Oakland collapse cost me that week)
Week 5: 5-2 +4.10 (+$820) 3-1 on 2 unit plays
Week 6: 6-4 +5.45 ($1,090) 4-1 on 2 unit plays
Week 7: 3-5 +1.4 (+$280) 3-0 on 2 unit plays
Week 8: 4-4 -0.626 (-$125)
Week 9: 8-2 +$2196
Week 10: 4-6 -$467.5
Week 11: 6-3 $+190.80
Week 12: 6-5 +$205.13
Week 13: 8-5 +$239.25

Week 14 Unit values:

2: $400 1*: $200 .5*: $100
​

4pm


.5* Buffalo -1 -101 (MB) Note: Play was posted in my prior thread



Note: Rest of my plays will be posted Friday night



​

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Passing on OAK/SD

Had a very small lean on OAK +10

 

[CondorHero]

Buffalo is also my strongest play this week. GL

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Buffalo is also my strongest play this week. GL

I may upgrade it on Friday as I'm still reading every possible article and report I can get my hands on concerning all teams. That was a play which I simply was going to play regardless. At this point I feel pretty good about this week card.

GL to you

 

[whormoan]

Curious what you could possibly like about Buffalo this week. They are coming off of a season crushing loss. Their starting QB is doubtful. Losman is abominable. Their DL gets no pass rush without Schoebel who I don't believe is back. Jauron is a buffoon. And they won't even have a true home crowd behind them or the bad weather on their side playing indoors in Toronto.

Although going against what we see on a week to week basis seems to work in this league, curious why anyone would love buffalo here.

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Curious what you could possibly like about Buffalo this week. They are coming off of a season crushing loss. Their starting QB is doubtful. Losman is abominable. Their DL gets no pass rush without Schoebel who I don't believe is back. Jauron is a buffoon. And they won't even have a true home crowd behind them or the bad weather on their side playing indoors in Toronto.

Although going against what we see on a week to week basis seems to work in this league, curious why anyone would love buffalo here.

WM for the past four weeks I've faded Miami and can't see myself doing otherwise this upcoming Sunday. The dolphins if you haven't notice has been beating bottom dwellers with smoke and mirrors for the most part. Offensively this team has overachieved all year mostly due to their system. As of late teams seem to have adjusted plus injuries has also contributed to their digression (notably OL and WR). Buffalo while not impressive as you clearly emphasized is not as far back in terms of talent than Miami (not as much as the public perceives). Factoring that in along with decent match ups across the board and semi-home field to boot I can't go any other way. Having said all that the unit wager reflects my confidence in the play. GL

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Bills Injury report :

Sportsline.com:

With the Bills playing a huge game in Toronto vs. the Dolphins in Week 14, it looks like they're getting some reinforcements. Bills DE Aaron Schobel (foot) and FS Donte Whitner (shoulder) practiced in full on Wednesday and are considered candidates to make their respective returns to the field for Sunday's game. Schobel has missed seven games and Whitner has missed three. Elsewhere for the Bills, CB Jabari Greer missed practiced with his knee injury and DE Chris Kelsay had the day off. (Updated 12/03/2008)

ESPN. COM
Aaron Schobel
Status: Questionable
December 3
Comment: Schobel (left foot) was back at practice Wednesday, the Bills' official site reports.

NFL.COM
Aaron Schobel DE Foot Full Participation in Practice


Donte Whitner
Status: Questionable
December 4
Comment: Whitner, who has missed most of the last four games since suffering a dislocated shoulder against the Jets on Nov. 2, took part fully in practice Wednesday and thinks he can play Sunday against Miami, The Buffalo News reports. "Right now I haven't been ruled officially into the game, but I think I'm going to play," Whitner said. "I feel good enough to play. I feel strong enough to play. . . . Barring any setbacks, I think I'll be out there."

 

[billbeater]

I fully endorse a bills play this week! and i hate the team more than anybody d1g1t
cash it!

 

[VoiceofReason101]

I fully endorse a bills play this week! and i hate the team more than anybody d1g1t
cash it!

I've fully endorsed betting against Miami for the past 4 weeks and don't see it changing anytime soon. GL

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Week 14 Card

Week 14 Unit values:

2: $400 1*: $200 .5*: $100
​

1pm

1.3* Cleveland Browns +14.5 -115 (BetJam)
1.3* Cincinnati Bengals +14 -115 (BetJam)
1.3* Atlanta Falcons +3 +103 (Matchbook)
.2* Atlanta Falcons ML +152
1* Houston Texans +6 -106 (Matchbook)
.50* Philly +7 -115 (WSEX)
​

4pm

.7* Pitt -3 -101 (Matchbook) Note: May upgrade after early games
.3* Pitt -2.5 -125 (5Dimes)
.7* Seattle +7 -120 (Bookmaker) Note: May Upgrade after early games
.3* Seattle +6.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
.5* Buffalo -1 -101 (Matchbook)
.5* Buffalo -1 -102 (Matchbook) Note: May upgrade after early games
1* SF 49ers +4 -108 (Matchbook)
1* KC Chiefs +9 -108 (Matchbook)
.5* Arizona -13.5 -115 (BetJam)




Monday Night Football

1* Carolina Panthers -3 -115




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Upgrades will be posted at 4:00pm est sharp (5-10 minutes before kickoff)

 

[CondorHero]

just a quick note that the LVSC is treating BUF as if its on neutral field, worth about a 2.5 point swing in BUF's favor

 

[uscmd]

VOR

With you on many.

Through week 12 double digit dogs were 15-1. Since wk 12 they are 1-5. Exact numbers vary because of many games spreads differed depending on who called it. (9...10.....9.5).

The games in Tenn and to me, looks to be a "celebrate the teams great year and kick the hell out of hapless dog", like a college homecoming game. Last 2 weeks Cle's def held the opponent in the ~14 pt range (home vs Ind/Hou) but the 3 before that averaged in the 30's (@buf, den and bal)

Whats there to like about Cle?

Thanks and bol

 

[VoiceofReason101]

CondorHero: as they should

uscmd: Simply put I think there is value my friend. I have this line closer to 11 than 14. In the NFL its all about perception.

 

[CaptFlippy]

Good Luck Voice!

 

[HighlifeRules]

VOR,


Good luck today. Thats a great looking card as I will be on quite a few of them. Keep up the great work you have done this year in both College and Pros, always check out your plays and like your style.


-HL

 

[DaKaty]

Kicking the Hell out of a Dog !

The games in Tenn and to me, looks to be a "celebrate the teams great year and kick the hell out of hapless dog",

Hmmmm, ... kicking the hell outta a poor helpless dog, ... remember "what goes around comes around" , ... Tennessee did kick the crap outta Detroit , ... on Thanksgiving Day , ... so, ... if history repeats itself , ... whoever beat up on the Lions , ... they lose their next game ( outright or against the spread ) ( only one exception to this - Houston ) - so , ... tread carefully on this game , ... better to take CLEVELAND plus the points, because THE ORGANIZATION wants yer money, and it don't matter if the Titans win by 9 or 10 , ... or even by 3 , because a WIN is a WIN for the TITANS , ... and if you take the TITANS ATS - the ORGANIZATION will be sooooooo very happy to take your moooooolah !!!! -BROTHERS! YOU CAN BANK ON THAT !!!

:monsters-:monsters-

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Flippy: Same to you bud

HighlifeRules: I really appreciate that bud. GL to you

Dakaty: Ummm yea

 

[C-LO]

GL today man, like that dook game yesterday?? That jsut topped it all of nicely for me!

 

[VoiceofReason101]

GL today man, like that dook game yesterday?? That jsut topped it all of nicely for me!

Yeah congrats on a great day yesterday. That and UM winning were the only highlights for me haha.

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Week 14 Unit values:

2: $400 1*: $200 .5*: $100
​

1pm

1.3* Cleveland Browns +14.5 -115 (BetJam)
1.3* Cincinnati Bengals +14 -115 (BetJam)
1.3* Atlanta Falcons +3 +103 (Matchbook)
.2* Atlanta Falcons ML +152
1* Houston Texans +6 -106 (Matchbook)
.50* Philly +7 -115 (WSEX)
​

4pm

.7* Pitt -3 -101 (Matchbook)
.3* Pitt -2.5 -125 (5Dimes)
.7* Seattle +7 -120 (Bookmaker)
.3* Seattle +6.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
.1* Seattle +7 -105
.5* Buffalo -1 -101 (Matchbook)
.5* Buffalo -1 -102 (Matchbook)
1* SF 49ers +4 -108 (Matchbook)
.1* SF 49ers +4 +105 (Matchbook)
1* KC Chiefs +9 -108 (Matchbook)
.1* KC Chiefs +9 -110 (Bookmaker)
.5* Arizona -13.5 -115 (BetJam)




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Small upgrades on the late ones