Where the action is: Monday NFL action report
By BETED.COM | November 16, 2008 | 31 comments
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Randy Scott is the sportsbook manager at betED.com. He shares the sharp action and weather his book is monitoring.
Cleveland 41.5
Buffalo -5.5
Monday 8:35 pm
Weather: 50 percent chance of Snow, Temp 31
- The point-spread was hit by wise action on: Buffalo -4.5
- The total opened at: 42.5
- Where the public is: Split 50/50
- Where the money is: Even
- The Monday night stage usually brings out the best in home teams. That's one reason Buffalo starts out as a decent favorite to win, then add wise action at -4.5 and the line moves up even more. We have this game closer than the current odds suggest and only give Buffalo a 50/50 chance to cover the spread.
By BETED.COM | November 16, 2008 | 31 comments
send to a friend print version rss feeds AddThis Social Bookmark Button
Randy Scott is the sportsbook manager at betED.com. He shares the sharp action and weather his book is monitoring.
Cleveland 41.5
Buffalo -5.5
Monday 8:35 pm
Weather: 50 percent chance of Snow, Temp 31
- The point-spread was hit by wise action on: Buffalo -4.5
- The total opened at: 42.5
- Where the public is: Split 50/50
- Where the money is: Even
- The Monday night stage usually brings out the best in home teams. That's one reason Buffalo starts out as a decent favorite to win, then add wise action at -4.5 and the line moves up even more. We have this game closer than the current odds suggest and only give Buffalo a 50/50 chance to cover the spread.
Early last week, my take on this game was Buffalo wins by more than 7.
I was going to be picking them all the way for anything under 7.
That being said that was last Monday. After checking my numbers, and watching the action on this game all week, I have changed sides.
Like I said ... "Having your money on the "right side/sharp side" doesnt always result in a win at the ticket window"
That's why the terms Sharp and Sqaures are the biggest overs used words in the business.
For every "so called sharp" that has Cleveland tonight, I'm sure we have a "so called sharp" on Buffalo.
The difference here is the Buf Sharp got his pick in when the line came out.
The guy cashing his ticket at the ticket window is the "real sharp " ...... for that game.
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here is another take...
CLEVELAND AT BUFFALO: Buffalo opened at -4 in this Monday Night game, and has been bet up to -5. That came on reports earlier in this week that the Browns players were calling each other quitters. There's nothing from recent Bills games to inspire confidence, so that has to be an anti-Browns move. The total dropped from 43 to 42. The early week forecasts weren't very pretty for Sunday and Monday, so we saw a lot of weather related drops. These guys played in a blizzard in Cleveland last year. I would expect to see a lot of game day action on this one once everyone has a chance to focus on the game. If the public hits the home favorite (as they often do), sharp money will come in on the Browns probably at +6.
http://www.vegassportsmasters.com/articles.asp?id=3361&action=single&hd_id=07
CLEVELAND AT BUFFALO: Buffalo opened at -4 in this Monday Night game, and has been bet up to -5. That came on reports earlier in this week that the Browns players were calling each other quitters. There's nothing from recent Bills games to inspire confidence, so that has to be an anti-Browns move. The total dropped from 43 to 42. The early week forecasts weren't very pretty for Sunday and Monday, so we saw a lot of weather related drops. These guys played in a blizzard in Cleveland last year. I would expect to see a lot of game day action on this one once everyone has a chance to focus on the game. If the public hits the home favorite (as they often do), sharp money will come in on the Browns probably at +6.
http://www.vegassportsmasters.com/articles.asp?id=3361&action=single&hd_id=07
My early week take on this game was "this is Buffalos super bowl game, Must win or it's over game"
That being said, everyone and their brother would pick Buffalo based on that assesment. Should be interesting to see where this one ends up before the game.
Then the line comes out and I'm like WTF ? So decided to wait and see what happens during the week, and run my numbers on Monday. That being said ... I still got Buffalo winning, but not covering.
Clev 20
Buff 21
