Sharp Handicappers’ Best Bets To Win Masters ⛳?

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Sharp handicappers’ best bets to win Masters​

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Wagering on the Masters is a tradition unlike any other for sharp golf bettors.

“This is the one tournament of the year where you can really get solid prices because they’re up so long,” Westgate SuperBook golf oddsmaker Jeff Sherman said.

With Masters odds on the board for 10 months, sharp handicappers are able to find value on multiple golfers at different points during the year.

Sherman bet on eight players to win a green jacket, including several at much better numbers than their current prices: Jon Rahm (12-1), Rory McIlroy (15-1), Xander Schauffele (25-1), Tony Finau (55-1), Brooks Koepka (80-1), Tom Kim (100-1), Jason Day (150-1) and Harold Varner III (300-1).

His best value play is on Day, a former PGA Championship winner who is 33-1 at Circa Sports after reeling off four straight top-10 finishes earlier this year.

“He’s been phenomenal to start this season,” Sherman said. “He’s been rock-solid consistent. He’s played as well as anyone.”

Wes Reynolds, co-host of VSiN’s “Long Shots” golf betting podcast, also played Day at 40-1 two weeks ago.

Reynolds has another common play with Sherman on Tony Finau, who’s down to 25-1 and is one of the largest liabilities at the SuperBook.

“Finau has been close many times in majors, with a top-five in all four majors and 10 top-10s in the 26 he’s played,” said Reynolds (@WesReynolds1). “The difference between those majors and this one is that Finau now has win equity and more confidence. He has won three times on the PGA Tour since playing his last major.”


At current odds, Sherman said some of the best value is on Sungjae Im, who is 40-1 at the Westgate. Reynolds also made Im one of his best bets.

“In 10 starts this year, Sungjae has recorded seven top-25s and three top-10s. He’s gaining strokes in each area this season and ranks sixth in the all-around ranking on the PGA Tour,” Reynolds said. “While he has largely struggled in the other majors, we can’t say the same about Augusta, where he finished second in his debut in 2020 and followed a missed cut in 2021 by returning last year to finish eighth.”

Here are Reynolds’ other best bets, with comments on each:


Jordan Spieth, 19-1

“Spieth has already had a couple looks at victory in 2023 with finishes of sixth in Phoenix, fourth at Bay Hill and third at Tampa.

“You could argue that he probably should have three green jackets already instead of just the one he earned in 2015.”

Justin Thomas, 25-1

“While Thomas has never been in the hunt on Sunday heading to Amen Corner, he has shown glimpses that he can be a Masters champion.

“He has led at the halfway mark (2020), defied a slow start to finish eighth (2022) and fought back for 12th (2019). JT also has Jim ‘Bones’ Mackay on the bag. ‘Bones’ won this thing three times with Phil Mickelson.”

Collin Morikawa, 33-1

“It is hard to believe that it has been almost 18 months since Morikawa has won anywhere. It looked like he was going to open 2023 with a victory before losing a nine-shot lead in the season opener at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.

“Meanwhile, Morikawa is back as one of the world’s best iron players.”

Hideki Matsuyama, 50-1

“The 2021 Masters champion is slowly coming into form with a fifth at The Players Championship and 15th at the Valero Texas Open last week.

“Seven of his eight PGA Tour wins have come on bentgrass greens. While a historically shaky putter, Matsuyama has gained with the flat stick in 10 of his last 12 events and is having the best putting season of his career.”

Min Woo Lee, 85-1

“Min Woo Lee is long off the tee and outstanding around the green, plus his approach play has improved markedly over the past 12 months.

“He proved he could compete with the game’s elite last month when he tied for sixth at The Players Championship.”
 

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Justin Thomas +2500
Cameron Young +3300
Max Homa +3300
Sam Burns +4000
Matthew Fitzpatrick +5500
 

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agreed , it is a crapshoot picking the winner. still fun tho

Augusta is a bit different than the other majors in that decreased field and they include past champions - some of these older guys have no chance, cameo appearances ex. F Couples. So a diluted field

-form
- past performances on the course, 'horses for courses '. tying in with that is the type of player a course favors . Augusta definitely favors length . Short hitters have no chance . Smallish greens, high ball flight and absolutely need a solid short game

Justin Thomas top 20/25 finish is worthy of a look.

in last 6 trips Vs 'a top 25 finish'; 6/6 . not as strong Vs top 20 tho. 'Top 30 'vig is nuts so no go

in form:
Burns, McIlroy, Rahm, Scottie, C Young, Xander

Mickelson as bet against and/or not to make the cut also worth a look. Not sure what's going on with Phil, he cant crack a top 20 at LIV , they got like 50 players in the field or so, wtf has happened to this guy?

LIV golfers is total guess , lol. They have played 3 LIV events, that's it. Two of the courses played on were Resort courses, nothing like a course setup of a PGA event. They , collectively, had horrible showings at last yrs US Open and British Open (C Smith was not LIV when he won). Dunno, losing their edge given the more relaxed LIV environment?- 54 holes, no cuts. Of all the majors tho, Augusta would definitely b their best shot

hopefully great theatre!!
 

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looking like no real advantage for Thursday. Morning will be obviously a bit more chilly

1680707997324.png


all the LIV guys to one side....except DJ . Making a statement- i'm cool with everyone, my friends (y)...holy shit is that Ray Floyd!!?
 

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2023 Masters: Expert picks and betting tips.​


The first golf major of the year beings at the 2023 Masters from Augusta National grounds in Georgia. This year, we will get to see PGA Tour and LIV Tour golfers competing against each other. The field is littered with experienced past champions like Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth. Let's not forget defending champion Scottie Scheffler who will be looking to add another major title to his resume.
Where is the betting value? Will the favorites prevail? Our golf and betting experts break down everything thing you need to know to bet the 2023 Masters Tournament.

Matt Barrie, ESPN
Winner:
Scottie Scheffler: it's eerily similar to last year. He's the hottest player on the planet, and nothing is too big for the 2022 champ.

Tory Barron, ESPN.com
Winner:
Cameron Smith: I've always been one for drama, and I think Smith is fervent in his desire to prove the LIV guys can still hang with their former colleagues. On top of that, the reigning Open champion has performed well at Augusta, finishing in the top 10 in four of his past five Masters starts.

Elizabeth Baugh, ESPN.com
Winner:
Jordan Spieth: The Jordan Spieth Experience is a roller coaster like none other, but I'm ready to ride. The 2015 champion knows his way around the course, which creative shots he needs to hit and his season is trending toward a big win.

Michael Collins, ESPN.com
Winner:
Scottie Scheffler: Even now as the best player in the world, Scottie doesn't get the respect he deserves -- he's the defending champion. Plus, I want to see him do a Jack Nicklaus move and put the jacket on himself. Ultimate flex!

Michael Eaves, ESPN
Winner:
Rory McIlroy: Call me a sucker for a good story, but Rory finally completing the career grand slam would be one of the most memorable moments in recent Masters history. Beyond that, I'm not sure he's come to Augusta in better form than he's displayed the last several weeks - his game is definitely Masters ready. It's just a matter of whether his long-awaited Masters glory is ready for him.

Peter Lawrence-Riddell, ESPN.com
Winner:
Collin Morikawa: When he won the Open in 2021 it felt like Morikawa headed toward the top of the golf word, but he hasn't won a PGA Tour event since. His 2022-23 season is off to an up-and-down start with three top 10s in 10 events -- he's not playing poorly, but he's not exactly headed to Augusta on fire. But he's made the cut in all three Masters he's played in, improving each year from T44 (2020) to T18 (2021) to fifth in 2002. Morikawa should at least stay in contention and hopefully give himself a shot on Sunday.

Andy North, ESPN
Winner:
Jordan Spieth: His iron game is in a good place, and he's a great pitcher and chipper. Great vibe at Augusta.

Mark Schlabach, ESPN.com
Winner:
Rory McIlroy: I'm a softie for feel-good stories -- and good stories to write about -- and there's not much better than McIlroy completing the career grand slam at the Masters. He seemed to get his driver and putter figured out at match play two weeks ago and if they're working at Augusta National, I think he finally gets it done.

Curtis Strange, ESPN
Winner:
Jon Rahm: He's extremely talented, strong, and is a good driver and putter. Great combination for this course.

Wright Thompson, ESPN.com
Winner:
Tiger Woods: Because that would be the most fun to watch.

Paolo Uggetti, ESPN.com
Winner:
Jon Rahm: It hasn't been that long since Rahm won at Riviera and we were all ready to declare him the favorite at Augusta. Even though what Scheffler has done the last month has been remarkable and McIlroy's whole season so far has been building up to the Masters, I think the guy who has won three times this season has a decent shot.

Scott Van Pelt, ESPN
Winner:
Xander Schauffele: He's done everything but win a major, and has excellent history at Augusta. This is a venue where I always emphasize past success. It's important, as I think it shows an understanding of what you have to do. He knows what to do and how to do it -- he just has to do thread the needle one of these years.
 

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Betting value picks to win

Our betting experts give you picks to win based on value. We look at the betting board and tell you who has the best chance to cash your ticket.

Anita Marks, ESPN Betting Analyst
Winner:
Justin Thomas (22-1)

Why he'll win: Thomas has made seven cuts in a row at Augusta, and his worst finish in the last five years is 21st place. He comes into this week with strong form from both Riviera and Kapalua. Thomas leads the Tour in strokes gained around the green and has the course knowledge to win on Sunday.

David Bearman, Sports Betting Deputy Editor, ESPN.com
Winner:
Rory McIlroy (+700)

Why he'll win: It's time. McIlroy has won everything else: Four major titles, three FedEx Cup championships, POY and leading money winner on both PGA and Euro Tours. The one thing he is missing is the green jacket. He's come close with seven top-10s, including runner up last year and leading after the first three rounds in 2011. He's in good form with two wins and five top-5s this year worldwide. It's time.

Tyler Fulghum, ESPN Betting Analyst
Winner:
Jason Day (25-1)

Why he'll win: Day has played incredible golf this season because he's finally healthy. He's third on Tour in scoring average (69.488) behind only Jon Rahm (+900) and Scottie Scheffler (+500).
Day will be making his 12th start at Augusta, so he comes equipped with the requisite knowledge of the course often required to win. It's not like he hasn't performed well here, either, as evidenced by four top-10 finishes, including T-2 in his debut back in 2011.

Michael Collins, ESPN Betting Analyst
Winner:
Tommy Fleetwood (50-1)

Why he'll win: There's a great "warm-up" tournament on the PGA Tour's Florida swing that makes you hit shots you're going to need at Augusta National Golf Club... and Tommy finished third at the Valspar Championship. He's played the Masters six times making five cuts, and last year had his best finish T-14.

Doug Kezirian, ESPN Betting Analyst
Winner:
Jon Rahm (9-1)

Why he'll win: We all want to land bigger payouts in the outright market than +900, but it still feels like value for a guy like Rahm. He's been the best player on tour this season but not priced that way. He leads the tour in scoring average and already has won three times. Plus, in his last five Augusta starts, he has four finishes in the top 10.

Joe Fortenbaugh, ESPN Betting Analyst
Winner:
Tony Finau (22-1)

Why he'll win: Shop around because you can find a better price than the one listed here. "Top-10 Tony" has, per his well-earned nickname, posted three top-10 finishes in five starts at ANGC. More importantly, he's currently 5th on tour in strokes gained: tee to green, an integral metric to consider when handicapping the Masters. Finau has been playing some incredibly consistent golf as of late, posting nine consecutive top-25 finishes since his November win at the Cadence Bank Houston Open.
 

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Props and more.​

Our betting experts have more than just bets to win. Here are some props to target for the entire event, from top 10s to made cuts to tournament matchups.

Tiger Woods to make cut (-165)
Bearman: I bet this every year at Augusta, as Tiger has made the cut in each of his last 22 trips here. The injuries have caused the number to rise over the years. We aren't getting plus money like last year, but -165 is still good enough for a guy who has won here five times and has another nine top-10s. He just has to make it 36 holes.

Will Zalatoris top-10 finish (+320)
Bearman:
Zalatoris is in the "I need to see him win again" before I bet him outright camp. He has had a lot of close calls, which is why a top-10 finish is the way to bet him here. He's finished in top 10 in both of his Masters appearances and in six of eight majors held on U.S. soil.

Xander Schauffele top-5 finish (+450), top-10 finish (+210)
Marks:
Despite missing the cut last year, Schauffele has a second and third place finish at Augusta, part of his nine top-10 finishes at a major without a win. He also leads the tour in proximity from 160-175 yards out.

Sungjae Im top-20 finish (+120)
Marks:
Three appearances at the Masters have led to two top-10 finishes. Sungjae has record positive strokes gained in every metric this season and is third on Tour this season in Par-5 scoring, which is big here.

Tom Kim top Debutant (+400)
Collins:
Played a nine-hole practice round with Tiger, Rory and Fred Couples looking much more comfortable than someone his age should have looked! Last years' Presidents Cup star is not just comfortable at Augusta National, he smiles like he's got a secret... kinda like Jordan Spieth did his first year at the Masters.
 

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C&P
ESPN.COM
 

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Here are the tee times for the first and second rounds of the 87th Masters at Augusta National:

All times ET.

First round​

8 a.m. -- Mike Weir, Kevin Na

8:12 a.m. -- Vijay Singh, Scott Stallings, Matthew McClean (a)

8:24 a.m. -- Sandy Lyle, Jason Kokrak, Talor Gooch

8:36 a.m. -- Fred Couples, Russell Henley, Alex Noren

8:48 a.m. -- Adrian Meronk, Kevin Kisner, Louis Oosthuizen

9 a.m. -- Larry Mize, Min Woo Lee, Harrison Crowe (a)

9:12 a.m. -- Sergio Garcia, Kazuki Higa, Keith Mitchell

9:24 a.m. -- Patrick Reed, Adam Svensson, Sahith Theegala

9:36 a.m. -- Shane Lowry, Mackenzie Hughes, Thomas Pieters

9:48 a.m. -- Bubba Watson, Seamus Power, Mateo Fernandez de Oliveira (a)

10:06 a.m. -- Abraham Ancer, Chris Kirk, Keegan Bradley

10:18 a.m. -- Tiger Woods, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele

10:30 a.m. -- Adam Scott, Patrick Cantlay, Kurt Kitayama

10:42 a.m. -- Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Cameron Young

10:54 a.m. -- Hideki Matsuyama, Cameron Smith, Sungjae Im

11:06 a.m. -- Jose Maria Olazabal, Cameron Champ

11:18 a.m. -- Charl Schwartzel, Taylor Moore, Aldrich Potgieter (a)

11:30 a.m. -- J.T. Poston, Francesco Molinari, Bryson DeChambeau

11:42 a.m. -- Bernhard Langer, Mito Pereira, Ben Carr (a)

11:54 a.m. -- Danny Willett, Gary Woodland, Brooks Koepka

12:12 p.m. -- Sepp Straka, Harold Varner III, Kyoung-Hoon Lee

12:24 p.m. -- Phil Mickelson, Tom Hoge, Si Woo Kim

12:36 p.m. -- Billy Horschel, Harris English, Ryan Fox

12:48 p.m. -- Zach Johnson, Jason Day, Gordon Sargent (a)

1 p.m. -- Brian Harman, Joaquin Niemann, Tyrrell Hatton

1:12 p.m. -- Dustin Johnson, Corey Conners, Justin Rose

1:24 p.m. -- Matthew Fitzpatrick, Collin Morikawa, Will Zalatoris

1:36 p.m. -- Scottie Scheffler, Max Homa, Sam Bennett (a)

1:48 p.m. -- Tom Kim, Rory McIlroy, Sam Burns

2 p.m. -- Jordan Spieth, Tommy Fleetwood, Tony Finau
 

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Second round​

8 a.m. -- Jose Maria Olazabal, Cameron Champ

8:12 a.m. -- Charl Schwartzel, Taylor Moore, Aldrich Potgieter (a)

8:24 a.m. -- J.T. Poston, Francesco Molinari, Bryson DeChambeau

8:36 a.m. -- Bernhard Langer, Mito Pereira, Ben Carr (a)

8:48 a.m. -- Danny Willett, Gary Woodland, Brooks Koepka

9 a.m. -- Sepp Straka, Harold Varner III, Kyoung-Hoon Lee

9:12 a.m. -- Phil Mickelson, Tom Hoge, Si Woo Kim

9:24 a.m. -- Billy Horschel, Harris English, Ryan Fox

9:36 a.m. -- Zach Johnson, Jason Day, Gordon Sargent (a)

9:48 a.m. -- Brian Harman, Joaquin Niemann, Tyrrell Hatton

10:06 a.m. -- Dustin Johnson, Corey Conners, Justin Rose

10:18 a.m. -- Matthew Fitzpatrick, Collin Morikawa, Will Zalatoris

10:30 a.m. -- Scottie Scheffler, Max Homa, Sam Bennett (a)

10:42 a.m. -- Tom Kim, Rory McIlroy, Sam Burns

10:54 a.m. -- Jordan Spieth, Tommy Fleetwood, Tony Finau

11:06 a.m. -- Mike Weir, Kevin Na

11:18 a.m. -- Vijay Singh, Scott Stallings, Matthew McClean (a)

11:30 a.m. -- Sandy Lyle, Jason Kokrak, Talor Gooch

11:42 a.m. -- Fred Couples, Russell Henley, Alex Noren

11:54 a.m. -- Adrian Meronk, Kevin Kisner, Louis Oosthuizen.

12:12 p.m. -- Larry Mize, Min Woo Lee, Harrison Crowe (a)

12:24 p.m. -- Sergio Garcia, Kazuki Higa, Keith Mitchell

12:36 p.m. -- Patrick Reed, Adam Svensson, Sahith Theegala

12:48 p.m. -- Shane Lowry, Mackenzie Hughes, Thomas Pieters

1 p.m. -- Bubba Watson, Seamus Power, Mateo Fernandez de Oliveira (a)

1:12 p.m. -- Abraham Ancer, Chris Kirk, Keegan Bradley

1:24 p.m. -- Tiger Woods, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele

1:36 p.m. -- Adam Scott, Patrick Cantlay, Kurt Kitayama

1:48 p.m. -- Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Cameron Young

2 p.m. -- Hideki Matsuyama, Cameron Smith, Sungjae Im
 

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Books split on Masters favorite, but bettors back Scottie Scheffler.​


Sportsbooks are divided on the favorite to win the Masters, but the betting public is gravitating to the defending champion.
Scottie Scheffler, who won the green jacket last year at Augusta National, is the favorite to win at 5-1 at Caesars Sportsbook, followed by Rory McIlroy at 13-2 and Jon Rahm at 17-2. Those are the only golfers with single-digit odds at Caesars. McIlroy is the favorite at other sportsbooks including the SuperBook and Circa Sports, and co-favorite with Scheffler at FanDuel and BetMGM.
Anthony Salleroli, who oversees golf odds for Caesars Sportsbook, said public support for Scheffler and the defending champ's recent strong showings caused his odds to improve to 5-1 earlier this week. More bets have been placed on Scheffler to win the tournament than on any other golfer at most sportsbooks, and as of Tuesday he had attracted twice as much money to win the tournament as any other golfer at Caesars.
Rahm was the consensus Masters favorite in late February, but his odds have lengthened over the past month after he withdrew from the Players Championship with an illness and lost in the first round of the WGC-Dell Match Play event.
Patrick Cantlay is 16-1, followed by Jordan Spieth at 18-1 and Tony Finau at 20-1 at Caesars Sportsbook.
Tiger Woods is around 80-1 to win the tournament but has seen support. Only six players had attracted more bets to win than Woods at DraftKings.
 

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Round 1 - Top 5 Finish
706202Rory McIlroy+350
706201Scottie Scheffler+350
706203Jon Rahm+400
706206Patrick Cantlay+400
706204Jordan Spieth+550
706205Cameron Smith+600
706207Justin Thomas+600
706208Collin Morikawa+700
706213Dustin Johnson+700
706210Jason Day+700
706214Tony Finau+700
706209Xander Schauffele+700
706226Brooks Koepka+750
706212Cameron Young+750
706211Max Homa+750
706219Matthew Fitzpatrick+800
706218Sungjae Im+800
706217Viktor Hovland+800
706215Will Zalatoris+800
706231Corey Conners+900
706221Hideki Matsuyama+900
706216Sam Burns+900
706224Joaquin Niemann+1000
706237Min Woo Lee+1000
706222Shane Lowry+1000
706223Tiger Woods+1000
706229Tommy Fleetwood+1000
706227Justin Rose+1100
706232Patrick Reed+1100
706220Tyrrell Hatton+1100
706233Adam Scott+1200
706240Bryson DeChambeau+1200
706234Louis Oosthuizen+1200
706230Mito Pereira+1200
706243Si Woo Kim+1200
706235Abraham Ancer+1400
706257Danny Willett+1400
706272Keith Mitchell+1400
706244Kurt Kitayama+1400
706248Russell Henley+1400
706236Sahith Theegala+1400
706242Sergio Garcia+1400
706290Taylor Moore+1400
706225Tom Kim+1400
706245Billy Horschel+1600
706288Gordon Sargent+1600
706252J.T. Poston+1600
706228Keegan Bradley+1600
706253Tom Hoge+1600
706255Brian Harman+1800
706251Bubba Watson+1800
706238Chris Kirk+1800
706249Gary Woodland+1800
706266Harold Varner III+1800
706263Mackenzie Hughes+1800
706267Phil Mickelson+1800
706254Ryan Fox+1800
706256Seamus Power+1800
706247Talor Gooch+1800
706250Thomas Pieters+1800
706268Adam Svensson+2000
706246Alex Noren+2000
706264Cameron Champ+2000
706262Charl Schwartzel+2000
706258Francesco Molinari+2000
706285Harris English+2000
706259Jason Kokrak+2000
706265Kevin Kisner+2000
706269Kevin Na+2000
706260Adrian Meronk+2200
706261K.H. Lee+2200
706271Sepp Straka+2200
706274Kazuki Higa+2500
706270Scott Stallings+2500
706273Zach Johnson+2500
706278Harrison Crowe+3500
706280Bernhard Langer+4000
706282Fred Couples+4000
706289Vijay Singh+4500
706277Aldrich Potgieter+5000
706279Matthew McLean+5000
706275Sam Bennett+5000
706276Ben Carr+5500
706281Mike Weir+5500
706284Jose Maria Olazabal+6000
706287Larry Mize+6000
706286Mateo Fernandez de Oliveria+6000
706283Sandy Lyle+6000
 

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