Service Plays Wednesday 8/27/14

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Wednesday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider

Rays at Orioles

Probable Pitchers:
TB: Smyly (8-10, 3.42 ERA)
BAL: Gausman (7-5, 3.81 ERA)

Series recap: The Orioles bounced back after getting swept by the Cubs, as Baltimore has taken the first two games of this set. Following a 9-1 rout in Monday’s opener, the Orioles held off the Rays on Tuesday, 4-2 as short favorites, as Baltimore has won five of the past eight meetings against Tampa Bay.

What to watch for: Tampa Bay owns an impressive 8-1 record in its last nine Game 3’s of a road series, as this series concludes on Thursday. In four starts since joining the Rays’ rotation, Drew Smyly has cashed the ‘under’ all four times, while not allowing a run in his last two road outings. The Orioles are a perfect 6-0 in Kevin Gausman’s six night starts this season, while the right-hander has split a pair of outings against Tampa Bay.

Yankees at Tigers

Probable Pitchers:
NYY: Greene (3-1, 3.17 ERA)
DET: Price (12-9, 3.00 ERA)

Series recap: The Yankees saw their five-game winning streak disappear in Tuesday’s opener at Detroit in a 5-2 setback. New York played in its third different city in three days after winning a make-up game at Kansas City on Monday, while the Tigers improved to 2-3 this season against the Yankees.

What to watch for: The Tigers have compiled a 2-2 record in David Price’s four starts since coming over from the Rays, with one of those victories coming in the Bronx, 4-3 in extra innings. Detroit owns a 6-2 record in its last eight Game 2’s of a home series, while going 8-1 this season after winning the opener of a series at Comerica Park. Since the All-Star break, the Yankees have won all four road starts made by Shane Greene, as the right-hander tossed eight shutout innings the last time he faced the Tigers in a 1-0 victory.

Braves at Mets

Probable Pitchers:
ATL: Teheran (12-9, 2.96 ERA)
NYM: Wheeler (9-8, 3.48 ERA)

Series recap: The Mets found a way to edge the Braves last night, 3-2 even without David Wright and David Murphy in the lineup. New York has won five of the past six home meetings against Atlanta, as the Mets cashed on Tuesday as +140 underdogs.

What to watch for: The Braves are 2-3 in Julio Teheran’s previous five road starts, which includes an 8-3 setback at Citi Field as -145 favorites in early July. Since July, the Mets have won seven of Zack Wheeler’s last nine starts, with the only two losses coming in walk-off fashion by one run each. Wheeler has seen plenty of success against the Braves at home in his short career, winning all three times, each in the underdog role.

Indians at White Sox

Probable Pitchers:
CLE: Kluber (13-7, 2.46 ERA)
CHW: Noesi (7-9, 4.86 ERA)

Series recap: The White Sox dropped their seventh straight game after falling in extra innings to the Indians, 8-6 as -150 home favorites. Chicago erased an early 3-0 deficit by grabbing a 6-5 lead, but the Indians scored two runs in the top of the 10th inning to win their third consecutive contest.

What to watch for: For the first time since late June, Corey Kluber suffered a loss in his last start, a 4-1 defeat at Minnesota as a -135 road favorite. The Indians have dropped two of Kluber’s three outings against Chicago this season, as the right-hander struck out a career-high 13 in a 4-3 setback on May 4 in which the Cleveland bullpen allowed three runs in the ninth inning. Hector Noesi saw a four-game home winning streak in his starts snapped against Baltimore in his past trip to the mound, as the right-hander allowed six runs in a 7-4 defeat at Progressive Field in mid-July.

Brewers at Padres

Probable Pitchers:
MIL: Gallardo (8-7, 3.38 ERA)
SD: Despaigne (3-5, 3.44 ERA)

Series recap: The Brewers routed the Padres in Monday’s opener, 10-1 as -140 favorites, but followed that performance up with a clunker last night. San Diego cruised past Milwaukee, 4-1 as short favorites, as the Padres improved to 11-2 in their past 13 games at Petco Park.

What to watch for: Milwaukee has won each of Yovani Gallardo’s last three road starts, which includes victories as heavy dogs at Los Angeles (+170) and Tampa Bay (+155). Rookie Odrisamer Despaigne is coming off two rough road starts against the Diamondbacks and Cardinals, but the Padres have won three of his five outings at Petco Park. Four of the five meetings between these teams have finished ‘under’ the total, while the Padres have scored three runs or less four times.
 
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PJ' TENNIS CORNER (+2.05)

ATP - US OPEN @ NEW YORK, U.S.A.
1105AM- F LOPEZ -150 vs I DODIG
 
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england - league cup
245pm- queens park rangers @ burton albion - under 2.5 +100
 

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BeatYourBookie

WEDNESDAY

MLB BASEBALL


10* Play Kansas City -140 over Minnesota (MLB TOP PLAY)

Minnesota is 22-45 when playing on a Wednesday
Minnesota is 32-49 when playing in the month of August
Kansas City is 51-32 when playing in the month of August



10* Play Oakland -125 over Houston (MLB TOP PLAY)

Houston is 45-83 vs. left-handed starting pitchers
Houston is 27-43 when playing on a Wednesday
Houston is 44-93 when playing as a home underdog of +125 or higher

=============================================

5* Play NY Yankees +180 over Detroit (MLB BONUS PLAY)
5* Play Miami +145 over Los Angeles Angels (MLB BONUS PLAY)

 

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WEDNESDAY BASEBALL



  • Play Oakland -145 over Houston----Top Play (Risk 5% of your Bankroll)
8:00 PM EST

Houston has lost 83 of the last 128 games vs. left-handed starting pitchers and they have lost 43 of the last 70 games when playing on a Wednesday. Houston has lost 93 of the last 137 games when playing as a home underdog of +125 or higher and they have lost 66 of the last 105 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs.




  • Play Kansas City -140 over Minnesota---Top Play (Risk 5% of your Bankroll)
    8:00 PM EST

Minnesota has lost 45 of the last 67 games when playing on a Wednesday and they have lost 49 of the last 81 games when playing in the month of August. Kansas City has won 50 of the last 82 games when playing in the month of August and they have won 42 of the last 70 games when playing on a Wednesday.
 

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MLB Baseball

1000* Play LA Dodgers -175 over Arizona (TOP MLB)

Clayton Kershaw has won 15 of the last 18 games when the total posted is 7 runs or less and he has won 8 of the last 9 games when pitching in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half of the season.Clayton Kershaw has won 8 of the last 10 games vs. division opponents and he is 8-1 in road games this season with an ERA of 1.76.

=====================================================

50* Play Cleveland -160 over Chicago White Sox (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play San Francisco -190 over Colorado (MLB BONUS PLAY)
 

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Jimmy Boyd2014-08-30 (3 days)
RENEW
[h=3]MLB Premium Picks[/h]Top Pick
LeagueDateTime (ET)MatchupPick
MLBAug 27 ,201412:35p[951] St. Louis Cardinals
[952] Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals -120
at 5Dimes
5* NL Central Game of the Month on Cardinals -
St Louis has split the first two games of their 3-game set with division rival Pittsburgh and I look for them to finish off the series with a win behind their ace Adam Wainwright. There's no denying Wainwright hasn't been up to his standard of late, but I like his chances of snapping out of his funk. Wainwright is 4-1 with 0.80 ERA over his last 6 starts against Pittsburgh. Andrew McCutchen is the one Pirate that's hit Wainwright well and there's a good chance he won't play after leaving yesterday's contest early with discomfort in his ribs.
Pittsburgh will counter with Jeff Locke, who allowed just 2 runs on 2 hits over 6 innings of work in his last start against the Brewers. However, there's two concerning things with that start that leave me to believe he could be in for a rough outing. Locke didn't record a single strike out and walked a season-worst 6 batters.
Locke is 7-15 in his last 22 starts in the second half against NL teams who are scoring 4.3 or less runs/game and 1-4 in his last 5 starts against a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is also 1-4 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series and 0-4 in their last 4 against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. St Louis is 36-16 in Wainwright's last 52 starts during game 3 of a series, 22-8 in his last 30 against a division opponent and 8-2 in his last 10 as a road favorite of -110 to -150. These trends combine to form a 73% (93-35) system in favor of the Cardinals. Take St Louis!
LeagueDateTime (ET)MatchupPick
MLBAug 27 ,20147:05p[967] Tampa Bay Rays
[968] Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays +105
at pinnacle
3* Rays/Orioles AL East Main Event on Rays +
The Rays are showing great value as a small road dog on Wednesday. Tampa Bay will send out starter Drew Smyly, who has a dominant 0.76 ERA and 0.549 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Smyly's last outing was a complete game shutout at Toronto. In his only career start against the Orioles earlier this season, Smyly held Baltimore to just 1 run on 5 hits over 6 innings of a 4-1 win. The Orioles will counter with Kevin Gausman, who has a not so impressive 4.38 ERA and 1.333 WHIP over 7 home starts. Gausman also has an ugly 7.05 ERA and 1.826 WHIP over 3 career starts against the Rays.
Tampa Bay is 21-8 in their last 29 road games, 14-5 in their last 19 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 12-4 in their last 16 road games in the second half against AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game. These trends combine to form a 73 % (47-17) system in favor of the Rays. Take Tampa Bay!

 

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Sportswagers

St. Louis @ PITTSBURGH

PITTSBURGH +114 over St. Louis

[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]12:35 PM EST. Adam Wainwright was whacked in the All-Star game and since then his 30% line-drive rate is the highest mark in the majors among pitchers with six or more starts. Wainwright's strikeout rate is also trending the wrong way. Over his last 39 frames, he's only whiffed 26 batters while walking 13. That's supported by a low 6% swing and miss rate over his last six starts in which he's posted a 4.35 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. In fact, all of Wainwright's skills have been nothing more than mediocre since the All-Star game but his overall ERA of 2.52 has this labouring pitcher well overpriced. Wainwright's xERA since the break is sitting at 5.17, which is 2½ runs higher than his actual ERA. Furthermore, current Pirates have 63 hits (7 jacks) in 221 career AB's against Wainwright for a combined BA of .285. Adam Wainwright may be the most overvalued starter in the league right now and absolutely does not warrant this billing in Pittsburgh.
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[FONT=arial !important]Jeff Locke emerged from seemingly nowhere last year, making the NL All-Star team and helping the Bucs to the post season. But his second-half ERA was over 5.00 compared with a 2.06 in the first half, leading to the conclusion his early success was a fluke. Yet, he's at least holding his own after an oblique injury shelved him early in 2014. Unlike the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde show last year, Locke has pitched true to his skills this season: His control has been elite and he's walking about one-third of the hitters per game as he did a year ago. Locke doesn't miss a lot of bats, but he's maintained a good command rate thanks to his pinpoint control. Pitching to contact is more his game and it's working with his nice 51% groundball tilt. In his last start, Locke went into Milwaukee and two-hit the Brewers in 6 innings. In 15 starts, he has lost just three games. Still only 25, Locke isn't the power arm that will seize headlines, and pitching in Pittsburgh keeps him further under the radar. The control gains are of such magnitude and beyond even his best seasons in the minor leagues, so it warrants skepticism. But even if his walks rise a little and Locke lacks the prospect status and upside of other names, he at least merits some consideration as a dog in his own barn and that's precisely how we'll proceed, even with Andrew McCutcheon likely sitting this one out. [/FONT]
[FONT=arial !important]
NOTE: There were several games off the board at the time of this writing and it's possible we may add a game or two a bit later. If so, we'll tweet it out when posted.
[/FONT]


[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]Our Pick[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]PITTSBURGH +114 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.28)[/FONT][/FONT]
 

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Atlanta @ N.Y. METS
N.Y. METS +119 over Atlanta

[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]It didn't take long Julio Teheran to live up to his lofty prospect status. He posted a 3.20 ERA in 2013—his first full MLB season and followed it up with an elite 1.83 ERA and 0.93 WHIP through 12 starts in 2014. However, things have taken a turn for the worst for Teheran and fatigue is likely the cause. Teheran threw 142 innings in his first season above A-Ball back in 2010. In 2011 and 2012 he split time between the minors (Triple-A Gwinnett) and the majors throwing a combined 163 frames in 2011 and 137 innings in 2012. In his first full season at the MLB level last year, he threw 185.2 innings. This year with 4½ weeks left in the season, Teheran has already thrown 182.2 innings and will shatter his own record for innings pitched in a season. Signs of fatigue include less strikeouts, more walks and pitching up in the zone rather than low, which is reflected in a pitchers groundball/fly-ball split. In Teheran's case, it's all of the above that is suffering. Teheran's 29%/50% groundball/fly-ball split over his last six starts is an alarming number that should not be ignored. His 7% swing and miss rate over those six starts is way down from his 10% swing and miss rate up to that point this season. Furthermore, Teheran's numbers on the road (4.27 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) have not come close to matching his home numbers. Both his surface stats and skills are much worse on the road and now it appears as though fatigue is settling in. Teheran's current form combined with Atlanta's poor road offense make the Braves too big risk as the chalk.
[/FONT][/FONT]
[/FONT]
[FONT=arial !important]Zack Wheeler cannot be this big a dog at home against a weak hitting visitor. Wheeler has been hot in the second half, with a 2.20 ERA in eight July and August starts. Four of those starts came at home, and three of them were of the pure quality variety. Wheeler has allowed more than 2 earned runs only once during his last eight starts. Wheeler's 53%/19%/28% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile on the year is one of the best in the game. Hitters cannot make hard contact off of Wheeler's stuff consistently. The only skill that is a concern is Wheeler's control or lack thereof. He's already walked 65 batters in 153 innings but his stuff is so nasty that it doesn't hurt him as much as it would others. If he can find the strike zone with more regularity, Wheeler will become one of MLB's most dominant starters. From July 6 to July 30, he walked two batters or less in five straight starts and the Mets won four of those five starts while outscoring the opposition 30-11. With his combination of strikeouts (8.0+ K's/9 in each month) and groundballs (57%+ GB% in three months and 53% overall), Wheeler has the goods to become a rotation anchor and is a great value bet anytime he's a pooch against an opposing starter that is not superior to him. That applies here.
[/FONT]
[FONT=arial !important]NOTE: There were several games off the board at the time of this writing and it's possible we may add a game or two a bit later. If so, we'll tweet it out when posted. [/FONT]

[FONT=arial !important][/FONT]Our Pick:
NY Mets +119 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.38)[/FONT]
 

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Cappers Finest:

Prez: Pirates, 2 Units
Prez: Mariners, F5 O 4
CoverzNuggz: Pirates, 2 Units
 
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HOT CHICKS PICKS / Brtiney DeLuca

Take PITTSBURGH +120 to chase the red birds away!

Take BALTIMORE -115 to avoid the sting of the rays!

Take BOSTON +130 to have a tea party north of the border today
 
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BONES BEST BET

DODGERS -1.5 -125 *4* BEST BET

Kershaw against the Diamondbacks, what is not to love here? The Dodgers are an incredible 41-26 away from LA while the Diamondbacks are a lousy 27-41 at home this season. The Dodgers are 17-4 in games Kershaw starts this season. LA is also red hot having won 5 of 7 with 4 of those wins coming by 2+ runs. The Diamondbacks have dropped 8 of their last 10. Miley owns a 6.20 ERA at home on the season and is 0-3 against these Dodgers on the year (all home starts) losing 7-0, 8-5, and 3-1.

RED SOX ML +123 *3*

The Blue Jays are a disaster and Marcus Stroman has hit a wall. Plenty of reason here to like Boston at big plus money. The Red Sox have taken the first two games of this series by a combined score of 15-10. Stroman or the Jays has allowed 5+ runs in 3 of his past 4 starts. Joe Kelly had one rough start since coming over from St. Louis but otherwise has had outings of 0, 2, and 1 inning.

ML PARLAY (INDIANS + DODGERS + NATIONALS) +269 *2*

Looking to cash a joint parlay here – and it’s a big one!

The Indians have Kluber on the mound who has been nothing short of spectacular this season. Kluber owns a 1.08 WHIP and a 2.46 ERA, strong numbers. Noesi for the White Sox has struggled this season with a WHIP of 1.41 and an ERA of 4.86 – including a home ERA of 5! Chicago has dropped 7 straight contests with 5 of those losses coming by 2+ runs.

Doug Fister has been the Ace this year for the Nationals owning a 1.07 WHIP and a 2.38 ERA. Washington is 14-5 in games Fister starts and have won 7 of their past 10 baseball games. Kendrick for the Phillies has been getting torched of late (1.78 WHIP, 6.61 ERA L3 Starts) and has struggled all season (1.38 WHIP, 4.93 ERA).

TIGERS -1 -130 *3*

Coming off an easy win Tuesday with Porcello on the mound, we see another similar result lining up here tonight with David Price toeing the rubber. Since being traded to Detroit Price has allowed 17 hits and eight earned runs while striking out 32 over 30.2 innings for a 1-1 record and a 2.35 ERA. He would be 2-0 had he not lost his last outing in which he tossed a complete game 1 hit gem. Yankees counter with Shane Greene who has been solid this season but does not hold the pedigree of Price, especially with this being a home game for the Tigers. Detroit is 7-2 in their last nine home games.

CARDINALS ML -119 *2*

Wainwright becomes the first 16 game winner in the MLB today. The Cards are 18-8 when Wainwright takes the mound this year. The Cards have won 5 of the last 7 meetings with the Pirates and Wainwright shut out the Pirates last time he faced them. He has also had better road numbers than home numbers this year.

CUBS ML +155 *1*

The Reds are playing terrible baseball – and until they prove otherwise we are going to ride huge plus money against them. They should not be -165 against any team in the bigs right now. Additionally the Cubs have won 4 straight and 7 of 9
 
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getmybet
League: ENGLAND: Capital One Cup
Match: Birmingham vs Sunderland
Tips: Both Team to Score

goforwinners
League: ENGLAND: Capital One Cup
Match : Birmingham vs Sunderland
Tips : Both Teams to Score

MyPerfectBets
League : EUROPE: Champions League
Match : Ludogorets vs Steaua Bucuresti
Tips : Over 2

BET4WINS
League : EUROPE: Champions League
Match : Ludogorets vs Steaua Bucuresti
Tips : Under 2.5

macaukingtips
League : Uefa CL Qualifiers
Match : Athletic Bilbao vs Napoli
Tips : Napoli +0.25

BUYFOOTBALLTIPS
League : ENGLAND: Capital One Cup
Match : Bradford vs Leeds
Tips : Over 2.5
 
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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres
Time: Wednesday 08/27 9:10 PM Eastern
Pick: San Diego +130 (moneyline) at 5dimes

The Milwaukee Brewers opened the season at 20-7, and it was a big enough start to the season to allow their pedestrian play since to hold a 1.5 game lead in the NL Central. Since the big start, the Brewers have played just three games over the .500 mark. San Diego evened the series at one game each, and the Padres have been living large at home of late where they are 16-5 in their last 21 here. Yovani Gallardo gave up six runs in his last outing, and is 8-7 on the season. This is a very soft spot for Gallardo and the Brew Crew as they are 2-8 in his last 10 starts to a posted total of 7 to 8.5. Milwaukee has also lost his last four starts as a favorite of -110 to -150, and they are just 7-15 in his last 22 starts following a game where they scored 2 or fewer. Play on San Diego.
 

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