STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 20th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Wednesday, 8/20/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #21
•Nationals' McLouth Faces Shoulder Surgery: Washington Nationals outfielder Nate McLouth will have season-ending shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum, the team announced Tuesday. The 32-year-old McLouth, who was the Nationals' primary left-handed batter off the bench this year, had gone on the disabled list Aug. 4 with right shoulder soreness. In McLouth's first season with the Nationals after signing a two-year, $10.75 million contract, he was limited to 79 games and batted .173 with one home run, seven RBIs and six doubles. In two previous seasons with the Baltimore Orioles, McLouth batted a combined .261 with 19 homers, 54 RBIs and 42 steals in 201 games. McLouth is scheduled to make $5 million next season and has a $6.5 million option or $750,000 buyout in 2016.
•Pirates' McCutchen Returns From DL: The Pittsburgh Pirates welcomed back center fielder Andrew McCutchen on Tuesday with his activation from the 15-day disabled list. McCutchen had been sidelined since Aug. 4 with a fracture in his lower left ribcage after he was hit by a pitch in a game against the Arizona Diamondbacks. To clear a spot on the roster for McCutchen, the Pirates sent utility man Michael Martinez to Triple-A before Tuesday night's game against the Atlanta Braves. McCutchen took batting practice and ran the bases before Monday night's 7-3 loss to the Braves in preparation for his return. The Pirates went 5-9 since he went on the DL --- including losing their last six games --- and fell six games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Central and two games out in the wild-card standings.
"I felt pretty good out there," said McCutchen, who hit against Jeff Inman, a reliever with the Pirates' Double-A Altoona farm club. "I made some good contact with some balls. I pretty much did everything. Swings and misses, check swung, fouled balls off, and none of it bothered me. I'm ready to go." McCutchen won the National League Most Valuable Player award last season and is a contender to repeat as he is hitting .311 with 17 home runs and 17 stolen bases in 109 games. As a precaution, McCutchen will wear padding around his ribcage for the remainder of the season. The padding will provide both protection and compression. The Pirates are expected to move Sterling Marte back to left field.
•Reds' Chapman Day To Day With Sore Shoulder: Cincinnati Reds closer Aroldis Chapman is considered day to day with a sore shoulder after a wild four-walk outing Sunday in his last appearance on the mound. Chapman walked all four batters he faced and threw 28 pitches in the Reds' 10-5 loss to the Colorado Rockies. It was just the second time this season in 39 appearances that Chapman allowed more than one batter to reach via a base on balls. Despite the balky shoulder, the hard-throwing left-hander still averaged 99.5 mph with his fastball and reached 101.5 mph.
"He's just a little achy, and it just doesn't make sense at all for us to keep running him out there," Reds manager Bryan Price said, according to MLB.com. "He was a little achy. I didn't want to say anything, but he was. By the time we knew there might be an issue, the damage was done. "Our trainers say it's a day-to-day thing and that he could be ready to go soon. I'm not crossing him off our list for tomorrow by any means." The 26-year-old Chapman, who missed the first month of the season while recovering from a line drive to the face during spring training, has 26 saves in 28 opportunities this season and a 2.82 ERA with 74 strikeouts in 38 1/3 innings.
•Orioles Still Pondering Gonzalez's Return: Miguel Gonzalez is biding his time in the minors while the Baltimore Orioles finalize their plans for his next stop. The team is expected to recall Gonzalez at some point this week to join either the bullpen or rotation, but manager Buck Showalter isn't revealing much about the plan. Gonzalez threw a 75-pitch simulated game Monday during an off day for Double-A Bowie to stay ready. "It was a good work day for him, got a lot done," Showalter said. "I think he's prepared to do what we might need." Gonzalez, 30, was caught in a roster crunch Aug. 9 when right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez came off the 15-day disabled list to rejoin the rotation. Gonzalez was optioned to Triple-A Norfolk to create a spot for Jimenez and has been there since.
He might get an additional side throwing session prior to getting back on a major league mound, but circumstances that occur in a three-game series against the Chicago White Sox this week will dictate whether that happens. Baltimore won the opener 8-2 Monday. The Orioles have an off day Thursday before going across town to play the Chicago Cubs this weekend at Wrigley Field. "Depends on our needs," Showalter said. "If it looks like we're going to have a need in the bullpen, then he probably wouldn't (throw a side session). But if we get to that point where it looks like we're going to be able to get to the off day without a need, then he probably would take it there." There was speculation that Showalter might go to a six-man rotation once Gonzalez gets called up, but it is more likely that either Gonzalez or Jimenez will shift to the bullpen. Gonzalez is 6-6 with a 3.80 ERA in 20 appearances (19 starts) for the Orioles this season, while Jimenez is 4-9 with a 4.83 ERA in 20 starts.
•Indians Re-Sign Reliever Atchison: The Cleveland Indians signed reliever Scott Atchison to a contract for next season with a club option for 2016, the team announced Tuesday. No financial terms were released by the Indians. The 38-year-old right-hander has made 53 appearance out of the bullpen this season for the Indians and has a 6-0 record with a 2.95 ERA. Opposing hitters are batting .218 against Atchison, who is among the top American League relievers in wins, inherited runners scored and innings. The Indians signed Atchison this season after he pitched in 50 games for the New York Mets in 2013. Atchison has a 16-10 career record with two saves and a 3.51 ERA in 258 major league games since 2004 when he broke in with the Seattle Mariners.
•White Sox's Dunn Ponders Retirement: Adam Dunn isn't sure what he will decide to do in the offseason about the rest of his baseball career. Speaking with the media Monday for the first time since telling an MLB.com reporter last weekend he was considering retirement, the 34-year-old veteran said he is no clearer on the subject a few days later. "It's going to be a decision where I'm going to sit down with the people who are important to me and make a quick decision, whether it's tomorrow, whether it's February," Dunn said. "I don't know how to go about it, because I've never done it before. We'll see. I'm not really worried about it." Dunn is in the last year of his contract with the White Sox, so unrestricted free agency awaits in the winter if he wants to pursue it. He said that building his career numbers wouldn't weigh in the decision, and neither would starting over in a new city, since the White Sox aren't expected to offer him a new contract.
"That doesn't factor in," he said of playing for another new team. "Actually none of it probably factors in, other than it comes down to whether I want to do this again or not. As long as I'm having fun doing it, I'm going to continue doing it, whether it's today, tomorrow, a week from now, 10 years from now, I don't know. There are a lot of factors." One of the considerations is his family. His two sons are growing up, and he is starting to feel the pull of family life competing with baseball. "It's not just going out and playing baseball anymore," said Dunn, who is hitting .227 with 19 home runs and 49 RBIs. "I'm not a 22-year-old single guy anymore. There are a lot of things that play into coming back and your decision."
Reaching the 500-homer plateau apparently isn't one of them. Dunn, who went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts in the White Sox's 8-2 loss to the Baltimore Orioles on Monday, is currently sitting on 459 career homers. "I'm not a numbers-oriented guy," he said. "I don't care about all that. I care about the next two months, or whatever it is, and we'll go from there. The numbers don't matter to me. I'm not going to stay around to chase 500 home runs or this and that. I'm going to do what I feel like I do, and we'll see. I'm not going to stay around for the money or numbers or anything like that."
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MLB Totals Betting Trends Report
Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor
Earlier this year many people were wondering what happened on the totals front. What was the issue? The Over was consistently outpacing the Under, and every single one of our Totals Trends reports showed precisely that. In a piece a couple months ago, I mentioned that things can change on a dime. Even I couldn’t have predicted that they would change in the manner that they have, though. The Over was cashing at a 52.5 percent rate a couple months into the year. Now, the yearly total sits at 51.07 percent Under and 48.93 percent of games finishing Over. More than 54 percent of games in the past month have gone Under the posted total. The oddsmakers adjusted, and now the public squares who love to bet the Over have been hurt badly.
Betting on totals can be a wise way to make money when betting on baseball. Following trends can be a profitable strategy over the course of the long baseball season. We here at StatSystemsSports.net are going to keep a close eye on baseball totals trends through the 2014 season. This will be a bi-weekly article designed to help you get an edge on the books. Note: The data in this particular article is for games played between July 22 and August 18.
•Top Five Over Teams (Over Listed Then Under)
#1 Houston Astros (15-10-1) The Houston Astros are a little bit better this year than they have been in previous years, but they still aren’t very competitive. The biggest reason for that is a poor pitching staff. For the second year in a row, Houston’s bullpen will finish dead last in the majors in ERA. The starters aren’t much better. This offense might be improving, but the pitching staff isn’t.
#2 Pittsburgh Pirates (15-10-1) I must say I was surprised to see Pittsburgh end up on this side of the report. Andrew McCutchen has been out the majority of this time, and the Pirates offense has been in a major slump. The fact that they show up here is solely based on terrible pitching in the past few weeks. Pittsburgh’s bullpen, that was normally good, has let them down. Francisco Liriano hasn’t been the same as last year, and Gerrit Cole has been injured. Pittsburgh needs the pitching staff to turn it around if they are going to make the playoffs a second straight year.
#3 Toronto Blue Jays (14-9-2) Toronto held first place in the American League East for a couple months earlier this year, but the Blue Jays have fallen way behind the Orioles of late. Toronto hasn’t gotten quality pitching from anywhere, but they still have power hitters and an offense that can score runs. The Blue Jays have hit 141 home runs this year. On the other hand, Toronto has a team ERA of 4.15.
#4 San Diego Padres (14-10-1) It has finally happened! The oddsmakers caught up to the San Diego Padres. This was a team that landed on the other side of this report every single time up until now. The offense has started to show signs of life, and the totals on San Diego’s games have been set extremely low. I still don’t trust this Padres offense, and I’m not about to call for a big over run for this team.
#5 Kansas City Royals (12-9) Most of the teams above them are here solely because of bad pitching, but that isn’t the case for the Royals. Kansas City’s offense has been up and down this year, but they are red-hot right now. The Royals have scored at least six runs in five of their last nine contests. The pitching staff has been great, but the offense has poured it on so much that their totals have been going over.
•Top Five Under Teams (Under Listed Then Over)
#1 Texas Rangers (17-6-2) The Texas Rangers have completely fallen apart. This was a team that nearly won (and should have won) the World Series a couple years ago, and now they have the worst record in baseball. Ron Washington will almost surely be gone at the end of this year, and this team needs a major change in direction. Oddsmakers continue to put high totals on Texas’ games, but this weakened Rangers offense can’t reach them.
#2 Milwaukee Brewers (17-8) Milwaukee has fended off the challenge from St. Louis in the National League Central thus far, and it is largely because of their pitching staff. Milwaukee has gotten 83 quality starts from their rotation this year, which is second in the majors. This has allowed the bullpen to stay fresh and perform at a high level late in the year.
#3 Los Angeles Angels (17-8) The Angels now have the best record in baseball. Everyone knows this team can hit, but their pitching staff has quietly been putting up some terrific numbers. Huston Street has been a tremendous addition at the back of the bullpen, and the rotation has gotten a major boost from the emergence of Garrett Richards. This is a team that no one is going to want to play in the postseason.
#4 Seattle Mariners (16-8) Seattle’s bullpen wasn’t even on the radar as one of the best bullpens at the beginning of the season, but they have a spectacular 2.43 ERA on the season. Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma are a powerful one-two combination at the top of the rotation. Chris Young has also exceeded expectations by a big margin this year. It’s tough to score runs on a team like Seattle. They are first in the majors in overall team ERA, and their defense has committed the fourth fewest errors so far in 2014.
#5 Tampa Bay Rays (15-7-2) Tampa Bay had the worst record in the league not that long ago, but they got back to the .500 mark two days ago. Joe Maddon’s team never quits, and they are loaded with strikeout pitchers. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has racked up 1,119 strikeouts so far this year, which is first in the majors. The Rays might not end up in the playoffs, but they continue to prove they won’t go down without a fight.
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Betting Notes - Wednesday
National League
•Braves-Pirates - 7:05 PM
--Wood is 2-1, 2.73 in his last four starts.
--Cole was 3-1, 3.86 in his last four starts before going on DL.
--Braves won six of their last seven games.
--Pittsburgh lost its last seven games, allowing 46 runs.
--Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Pittsburgh games.
•Diamondbacks-Nationals - 7:05 PM
--Cahill is 2-0, 2.61 in his last three starts.
--Roark is 5-1, 2.51 in his last seven starts.
--Arizona lost seven of its last nine games.
--Nationals won 11 of their last 13 games.
--Over is 8-4 in Roark's last twelve starts.
•Reds-Cardinals - 7:15 PM
--Cueto is 7-0, 2.24 in his last eight starts.
--Lynn is 2-0, 2.89 in his last three starts.
--Cincinnati lost nine of its last eleven games.
--St Louis won six of its last seven games.
--Six of Reds' last seven games went over the total.
•Giants-Cubs - 8:05 PM
--Peavy is 2-12, 4.57 earning his first win in 19 starts.
--Jackson is 0-5 with a 9.10 ERA in his last six home starts.
--San Francisco lost their last five road games.
--Cubs won their last three games, allowing two runs.
--Eight of last ten Cub games stayed under total.
•Padres-Dodgers - 10:10 PM
--Stults is 2-0, 1.80 in his last three starts.
--Hernandez is 1-0, 2.25 in two starts for the Dodgers.
--San Diego lost four of its last five games.
--Dodgers lost four of their last six games.
--Eight of last ten Stults starts stayed under total.
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American League
•Astros-Yankees - 7:05 PM
--Feldman is 0-3, 8.15 in his last three road starts.
--Pineda is 2-2, 1.82 in five starts this season.
--Astros lost seven of their last ten road games.
--New York is 4-6 in its last ten home games.
--Six of last seven Houston road games went over; under is 5-2-1 in last eight Yankees games.
•Tigers-Rays - 7:10 PM
--Porcello is 5-3, 2.64 in his last ten starts.
--Odorizzi is 4-5 in 13 home starts despite a 3.10 ERA.
--Tigers lost ten of their last thirteen road games.
--Tampa Bay lost six of its last eight home games.
--Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Tampa Bay games.
•Angels-Red Sox - 7:10 PM
--Angels won last three Richards starts (2-0, 1.99).
--Boston lost last five Buchholz starts (0-2, 6.97).
--Angels won six of their last seven games.
--Red Sox lost four of their last five games.
--Seven of last eight Angel games stayed under total.
•Indians-Twins - 8:10 PM
--House is 1-1, 2.51 in his last three starts.
--Nolasco is 1-3, 8.10 in his last four starts.
--Indians won six of their last eight games.
--Minnesota lost nine of its last thirteen games.
--Seven of last eight Cleveland games stayed under total.
•Orioles-White Sox - 8:10 PM
--Chen is 5-1, 2.86 in his last seven starts,
--White Sox won five of last six Noesi starts (4-1, 4.62).
--Baltimore won 19 of its last 27 games.
--White Sox lost seven of their last ten home games.
--Six of last seven Chen starts stayed under the total.
Interleague
•Rangers-Marlins - 12:40 PM
--Martinez is 1-3, 7.06 in his last four starts.
--Eovaldi is 1-1, 2.14 in his last three starts.
--Texas lost eight of its last eleven games.
--Marlins won eight of their last eleven games.
--Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Texas games.
•Mariners-Phillies - 1:05 PM
--Paxton is 1-0, 1.46 in his last couple starts.
--Hamels is 3-1, 1.44 in his last six starts.
--Mariners won 11 of their last 14 games.
--Phillies lost eight of their last eleven games.
--Seven of last nine Hamels starts stayed under total.
•Blue Jays-Brewers - 2:10 PM
--Dickey is 0-2, 4.26 in his last three starts.
--Nelson is 1-2, 3.12 in his last four starts.
--Toronto lost six of its last seven games.
--Brewers won last five games, scoring 28 runs.
--Four of last five Nelson starts stayed under.
•Mets-Athletics - 3:35 PM
--Wheeler is 4-0, 2.18 in his last nine starts; Met bullpen was 1-4 in those five no-decisions. .
--Oakland is 5-0 in Samardzija home starts (3-0, 2.57).
--Mets lost six of their last eight games.
--Oakland lost seven of its last nine games.
--Five of last seven New York games stayed under total.
•Royals-Rockies - 8:40 PM
--Royals won last five Duffy starts (4-0, 2.73). .
--De La Rosa is 1-2, 4.91 in his last four starts.
--Royals won 17 of their last 20 games.
--Colorado lost 13 of its last 18 games.
--Five of last six Colorado games went over total.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Colorado’s Jorge De La Rosa is 31-5 his last thirty-six home team starts, including an 18-2 mark when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last two seasons. If the Kansas City Royals are to continue their surge, they likely must find a way to end De La Rosa's current success at Coors Field. Looking for a fourth consecutive victory, the American League Central-leading Royals try to prevent the Colorado Rockies' left-hander from winning his sixth straight home start Wednesday night.
The Royals own a 31-15 scoring advantage during a four-game winning streak against the Rockies, but could be in for a stiff challenge versus De La Rosa. While the left-hander is 4-6 with a 5.35 ERA in 13 road assignments, he's 8-2 with a 3.30 ERA in 12 at home. He's posted a 2.97 ERA during a home winning streak that reached five straight starts Thursday after giving up three runs in seven innings of a 7-3 victory over Cincinnati. De La Rosa, who has lasted at least six innings in 10 straight outings overall, tweaked his Achilles while batting in that contest but expects to pitch.
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w-thumbs!^
